florida 2025-2026 Florida Winter

[Matthew92]

Portion of the Melbourne NWS discussion this morning. Yikes.. the wind on Saturday night will make the first night of this freeze much more damaging. Part I circled illustrates perfectly why this will be so impactful with the angle of the cold source of air. 

[Merlyn]

@Matthew92 I'm actually hoping for wind on Saturday morning, just to prevent frost from forming.  In past cold fronts here it *seemed* as though the frost was a bigger cause of damage than just pure cold.  That's just my observation, of course.   

Last night hit 29.6F with light frost.  The airport recorded 35...

[JeskiM]

With that strong of a low pressure forming that close to most of FL, there will be no escape from the wind, particularly Friday/Saturday nights.  Sunday night will be much more calm.

-Matt

[flplantguy]

Even slowing down the wind helps, I'm still covering and I'm going to try and set up a weed mat windbreak where the worst winds come in. I'm also hoping it generates some heat in the sun too and prevents the wind burn as much. Here the wind will be onshore, but this pattern causes physical damage in my yard too so I need to be ready for that also.  And possible snowflakes🥶🤮.

[JLM]

Very brief dip to 25F this morning. Washies are not happy campers. Bizzy not showing any signs of damage but I know it will soon. Queens look mostly fine, front yard queen burn might be the result of that really dry wind. Backyard queen looks fine for now. 

[MarkC]

21 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

Very possible with wind direction but who knows tonight is forecast to be 20 in spring hill now so after tonight what happens this weekend doesn't even matter anymore 

Some of the models were backing down a little on the veracity of cold in SW Florida, but this seems to have subsided they even added an additional night at 38 on Thursday. Has my location 1/4 mile west of i75 off Pine Ridge Rd now back down to 31F Monday.  

Still seeing Miami Int Airport hovering just over freezing 33F on Sunday. But SW Florida gets hit by every single damn cold front that makes it past central Florida. The difference in temps between my location and 90 miles across i75 are incredibly dramatic especially to the coast, 8-15F difference. 

[computadude]

I woke up to 24.8 this morning. Yesterday's low was 22.8.

This is what they looked like yesterday:

[Matthew92]

Good visualization/explanation of the set up+mechanism here

 

 

[JLM]

I have generated some probability maps for those in central and southern Florida for Sunday morning, which looks to be the worst as far as low temperatures go. 

All maps below are using data from NWS Blend of Models.

Starting in central Florida, here is the probability of seeing temperatures less than 32F. Probabilities are quite high for at least a minimal freeze:



Next up, the probability of seeing a temperature of less than 25F. Probabilities of this occurring are at least moderate, especially in the vicinity of Osceola County. Areas north of I-4 stand a greater chance:



Lastly for central Florida, the probability of seeing temperatures below 20F. These probabilities are very low, but not zero. The greatest chance (still quite low), is north of I-4:



Now for south Florida. Only doing 2 maps for this region.

The probability of seeing temperatures less than 32F in south FL is particularly high around Lake Okeechobee. Areas in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale areas have a very low chance of seeing a light freeze as it stands right now:



Lastly, the probability of seeing temperatures of 25F or lower. These probabilities are quite low, but any chance of this happening is generally confined to areas north of Lake Okeechobee:



Take of this data what you will. As time moves closer, we will see how things trend, hopefully it trends warmer for everyone in the state.

[Matthew92]

44 minutes ago, computadude said:

I woke up to 24.8 this morning. Yesterday's low was 22.8.

This is what they looked like yesterday:

Nice cold hardy palm selections. How long have you had the queens?

[computadude]

52 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Nice cold hardy palm selections. How long have you had the queens?

We bought them in 2023 at Lowe's

[SubTropicRay]

From the NWS Tampa.  Let there be snow.

[Bazza]

I'm in New Smyrna Beach and was trying to remember the last freeze we had here. Maybe January 18, 2018 - 27 degrees?

https://weatherspark.com/h/d/18806/2018/1/18/Historical-Weather-on-Thursday-January-18-2018-in-New-Smyrna-Beach-Florida-United-States#Figures-ColorTemperature

I remember it put a hurt on my Coconuts but didn't kill any. And I didn't do any protection measures.  Those same 3  Coconuts are still here and thriving, so maybe  they can make it through this event OK.

Haven't decided yet whether I will try to protect them.

 

 

[flplantguy]

Scattered flurries for me in the forecast. Sounds fun🤮. With covers on plants that will not go well if it's any amount that adds moisture to them. Plus cooling added on with the wind and it can do bad damage. Some numbers in the forecast are near 89 levels in spots and 2010 level in others, so what old timers called an "impact freeze" is coming. Proof they never really went away just took a hiatus till now😐

[PalmBossTampa]

This too shall pass. Real world cold tolerance information gathered here will be amazing, and we all love stories of recovery .

Peace, stay warm, and think about Summer 2026 😎

[Matthew92]

2 hours ago, computadude said:

We bought them in 2023 at Lowe's

Nice! Congratulations on keeping them alive thus far through these last couple of brutal winters! 

[computadude]

7 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Nice! Congratulations on keeping them alive thus far through these last couple of brutal winters! 

Thank you, sir! I'm crossing my fingers that this year won't be their demise. 

[kinzyjr]

3 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

From the NWS Tampa.  Let there be snow.

Let's not and say we did 😁

[flplantguy]

The hourly forecasts are starting to show up and the wind speeds that night near me won't be as bad as further east closer to the low. I'm hoping my practice and these past few years being cold at my spot have me prepared better than I was last year. That damage was pretty nasty and I don't want/can't afford a repeat a second year. Even with good care that's a death sentence for some plants but I'm starting to think I lost the wimps right away and have less to worry about. I'm not adding heat or anything active, just thick blankets and, if I can, a weed mat stapled up as a windbreak between the blanketed palms and the wind. I'll get pics if I get it to work.  With the wind speed Saturday being up over 30 mph as the front moves in it may not happen. I have the stapler and clamps to hold it when done though so it's possible.  I'm also going to move some other plants if the forecast gets worse here, it IS north Pasco after all, and it gets cold when the wind dies in these events. 

[Jimbean]

The NWS is forecasting a low of 26F and 29F over the weekend.  I'm thinking about how I'm going to protect my coconut palm.  I don't think Christmas lights are going to be enough, probably need a hotter lamp and a lot of blankets. 

[Palmarum]

On 1/27/2026 at 7:06 PM, TropicsEnjoyer said:

... I wonder how all the super tropical plants are going to react.

Badly.

Reading everything above about what has happened already north of here and what is about to come down the state is crazy. Ugh. The worst is still coming. I have dryer vent hoses running through the garage and floor heaters at the ready. I wonder if an old toaster would work if I isolated it away from everything 'toastable'... Hmm.

If you are in Florida and post a photo of your palms covered in snow or ice, you are allowed to curse on the Forum.

Thinking warm thoughts.

Ryan

[kinzyjr]

2 hours ago, Jimbean said:

The NWS is forecasting a low of 26F and 29F over the weekend.  I'm thinking about how I'm going to protect my coconut palm.  I don't think Christmas lights are going to be enough, probably need a hotter lamp and a lot of blankets. 

How large is it at this point?

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/50385-coconut-palms-in-zone-9b/#findComment-773319

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFBCHCbwEtU

 

[Meangreen94z]

1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

The NWS is forecasting a low of 26F and 29F over the weekend.  I'm thinking about how I'm going to protect my coconut palm.  I don't think Christmas lights are going to be enough, probably need a hotter lamp and a lot of blankets. 

See if your local Home Depot or Lowe’s stock heater cables for pipes. They are thermostat controlled to switch off above freezing and a lot less likely to trip a GFCI or breaker than incandescent lights.wrap the heater cable around the trunk focusing on the growth point as the priority. Then wrap it in a tarp. You can leave the thermostat portion outside the wrapping so it will stay on while freezing outside and not just under the wrap. If you think the fronds will burn in your lows, which is likely, you can cut the fronds off in advance and wrap the tarp over the growth point.

https://www.homedepot.com/pep/Frost-King-6-ft-Electric-Water-Pipe-Heat-Cable-HC6A/202262328?source=shoppingads&locale=en-US&fp=ggl&pla=&utm_source=google&utm_medium=vantage&utm_campaign=106880&utm_content=109927&mtc=SHOPPING-RM-RMP-GGL-D25H-Multi-NA-FROST_KING-NA-PMAX-NA-NA-MK731149001-106880-NBR-1577-NA-VNT-FY25_Q1_Q4_ThermwellProductsCo_FrostKing_D25H_RM_ES_AON_BAUOpportunity&cm_mmc=SHOPPING-RM-RMP-GGL-D25H-Multi-NA-FROST_KING-NA-PMAX-NA-NA-MK731149001-106880-NBR-1577-NA-VNT-FY25_Q1_Q4_ThermwellProductsCo_FrostKing_D25H_RM_ES_AON_BAUOpportunity-23224722228--&gclsrc=aw.ds&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23224724871&gbraid=0AAAAAolLu9_JuRJlIkxQSOHXZIEwdlr1o&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3MDk6u2vkgMVR3R_AB30qCBLEAQYAyABEgLXA_D_BwE

[FlaPalmLover]

I should drive by the coconut near me this weekend to see if the owners are doing anything to protect it. I got some winter tree wraps off of Amazon that I'm going to use to cover my foxtail and a single trunk king that's not fully covered by canopy. I may wrap up the foxtail's trunk with a blanket as well. The foxtail has a fairly thick trunk for its size, so I'm hopeful it will survive.

[HudsonBill]

Worst night of the year so far temp wise and its still got an hour or so to drop. Insane the worst nights are always the last night of the event

[SubTropicRay]

26 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Worst night of the year so far temp wise and its still got an hour or so to drop. Insane the worst nights are always the last night of the event

Very true Bill.  In 2010, we'd been skating through with many cold nights but nothing overly destructive.  Then, the last 2 nights, 29 and 26F.  After a long, cold stretch, the nights below freezing are like a sucker punch.

[HudsonBill]

After this year i don't trust growing anything at all. I just feel like this will be the new normal.  How easy it's getting this cold I don't see how it doesn't just get this cold every year. 

[flplantguy]

29 here this morning as I type. No freeze warning but I leave things covered since the weather forecast always gets this wrong. Forecast was 34 so the usual 5 degrees off from radiational cooling. This is also why I don't believe the forecast for the next one and assume worse.

 

On 1/29/2026 at 7:05 AM, HudsonBill said:

After this year i don't trust growing anything at all. I just feel like this will be the new normal.  How easy it's getting this cold I don't see how it doesn't just get this cold every year. 

The 2010 palm thread shows the same. They forecast warmer so people didn't protect for a massive ground frost they didn't forecast. Everything below 6 feet here was destroyed including Norfolk pines. The calm night at the end is ALWAYS bad so how is it they botch it every time? Even my tempest station that supposedly learns isn't getting it either but we know the truth. That's why inland from me they stopped bothering, and literally no one has landscaping or a garden outside of a few that have knowledge. The rest give up unfortunately.

[HudsonBill]

5 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

The 2010 palm thread shows the same. They forecast warmer so people didn't protect for a massive ground frost they didn't forecast. Everything below 6 feet here was destroyed including Norfolk pines. The calm night at the end is ALWAYS bad so how is it they botch it every time? Even my tempest station that supposedly learns isn't getting it either but we know the truth. That's why inland from me they stopped bothering, and literally no one has landscaping or a garden outside of a few that have knowledge. The rest give up unfortunately.

Its crazy how someone whongets paid to know this stuff doesn't but just some guys who wanna grow some cool palms do lol. 20 deg currently off of Denton Ave.  28 here

[SubTropicRay]

1 hour ago, HudsonBill said:

After this year i don't trust growing anything at all. I just feel like this will be the new normal.  How easy it's getting this cold I don't see how it doesn't just get this cold every year. 

Bill, I felt the same way in 2010 but time has a way of "healing" and changing your mind.  I don't think it's the new norm as the frequency of these things is nowhere near what it was a half century ago.  It was like this in 1996 then 2010 and now this.  The average has been about one moderate freeze every 10-15 years.  We were overdue.   Hopefully, that trend sticks or improves.

[HudsonBill]

On 1/29/2026 at 8:12 AM, SubTropicRay said:

Bill, I felt the same way in 2010 but time has a way of "healing" and changing your mind.  I don't think it's the new norm as the frequency of these things is nowhere near what it was 40 years ago.  It was like this in 1996 then 2010 and now this.  The average is about once every 10-15 years.  Hopefully, that trend sticks or improves.

Well I definitely won't be trying any more coconuts here! Hahahahah it had a good run though and if I had the time coudl have done more to save it. I'm going to be planting a ton more cold hardy stuff has canopy from now on. 

 

All my stuff under canopy that saw 29 last night but it has signs of damage and covered in ice. When I say canopybim talking thick dense canopy where it's almost full shade. We get fog tge fog freezes on all teh plants canopy or not. It's the 2nd time it's happened this year. Last night was the worst yet thisbyear by far. 

[Jimbean]

10 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

How large is it at this point?

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/50385-coconut-palms-in-zone-9b/#findComment-773319

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFBCHCbwEtU

 

My coconut palm is this big, and I also have a Dypsis baronii taller than the roof of my house.

Melbourne officially dropped to 28F in December of 2010, and 28F in February of 1996, so if this forecast holds, this will be the coldest night since December of 1989.  This freeze event will be fun to watch, but not too much fun for the butt ton of Cocos and Adonidia planted around here since 2010.

 

NWS forecast:

Port St. Lucie 27F, 28F

Melbourne 26F, 29F

Vero Beach 27F, 29F

Fort Pierce 27F, 27F

Stuart 29F, 31F

 

This is a reminder that this is east central Florida and not southeast Florida

West Palm Beach 33F, 34F

Daytona Beach 24F, 27F

 

 

[sonoranfans]

this is gonna hurt, one freshly opened spear on a satakentia was fried already.  I am prepared for lots of burn and perhaps a few deaths.  We have had a run of warm 10b winters here, that ended this winter as we have been in the mid 30's at least 8-10 days already and expect 30F or lower monday morning.  I wish for the nasty humid summer heat for my palms.  Glad I have more than half my palms that can take at least 26F.  This storm looks like it could be an advective event, 2010 was radiational which is easier on palms.  Heat arising from the ground after heating by the sun can keep palms warmer with a little canopy.  Wind kills all that by blowing the heat away.  Best of luck to everyone, protect what you can protect.

[kinzyjr]

@Jimbean It's growing really well.  I'd focus on keeping the growing point alive like @Walt did in Lake Placid.  His method kept his palm alive down to 20F.  Good luck over there!

We're supposed to basically have two nights of December 2010/Jan. 2018 here with howling wind and lows in the mid-to-upper 20s.  My coconut palms have held up decent so far, but this one will be a nail-biter.  The two largest have a few C9s below them, but that's all.  Whatever goes, goes, and is replaced in the spring by tougher stuff.

Also, good advice from @sonoranfans for those who heed it.  Good luck down there as well, Tom.

May we soon have the wind at our back while we're facing north.

[HudsonBill]

I think this am was the 4th night into the 20s this year. It's still alive somehow. It was badly damaged last year at 27 and was starting to look good again now it's all beat up. I'm not protecting it it will.be dug out in the spring unless it somehow lives.  Picture taken this am with frost mwkting dripping off it. 

[pj_orlando_z9b]

I do plan to protect in some fashion tomorrow.  In the 2018 freeze, I nearly lost my coconut at 28F.  At that time, it was young and only had Christmas lights wrapped by sheets.  I've moved on to better, stronger methods so I'll post pics once I get it set up tomorrow.

I was holding out hope that the forecast would change or somehow models pick up on a different wind shift.  Oh well, time to protect.

A few things I'll be watching:

1) I'm typically in a microclimate a quarter mile off a large lake.  W to NW winds favor me and the lake is 63F right now.  It's advective cold so even 1-2 degrees could help.

2) The last events I've fared slightly better. than forecast.  Does that hold this weekend?

• Wed forecast = 33F, MBY = 35F.
• Thurs forecast = 35F, MBY = 38F
• Last night forecast = 30s, MBY - 40F

Wishing everyone good luck!

 

[MarkC]

Things are starting to get dicey at Disney, though the Foxtails are still looking good. Not for long, I bet the last remaining bottle palm in Adventure land in Magic Kingdom is not long for this world. I hope they protect that beautiful Satakentia adjacent to Pirates Of The Carribean. Took this the other day at Animal Kingdom.

 

[Palmarum]

1 hour ago, MarkC said:

Things are starting to get dicey at Disney, ...

There are newly planted Licuala grandis at the Journey of Water exhibit at Epcot, wonder how well they will do.

Latest wind chill warning for me is 26ºF (-3ºC) for Sunday morning. My newest worry is now losing power. During the cold here on New Years, we had a couple brownouts and lost power three times, including popping the fuse on the nearby pole. it mirrors the power outage chance during the hottest part of the summer.

Ryan

[metalfan]

We're more used to dealing with this up here in North Central FL, but still, this is the worst winter we have had since 2010. AFter 2010, I felt like things would never grow ack. They did...I have a lot of perennials and gingers, and all my palms are hardy for here. ANy palms not hardy are in my heated greenhouse.

I haven;t deployed frost cloth since 2010. I have already had to deploy it about 5 times this winter. I put it on lasy week and its still in place until after 2/3/26.

Saturday night will be the worst here, a forecast low of 21F. We've already seen 24 once this winter, but 21....have not seen that since 2010

[flplantguy]

I saw someone mention that the cold in their home up north feels similar to the cold here but the temp is way different, and someone else mention that it's the moisture here making it feel worse. I have always thought there was something to that but came from higher elevation NM, so there are fewer molecules in general in the air to make you cold there too.  but 60 degrees today didn't feel that warm in shade at all so I think they are right. The moisture makes the comfort range for temps for people more narrow. That means this big freeze will feel terrible and be more dangerous than the numbers would suggest, and hopefully people have that in mind when they are out protecting plants and they bundle up too. Start early, take breaks, and think out a plan inside beforehand so you don't get sick, stressed out too much, or hurt moving too fast.  Especially if it's been a while.