florida 2025-2026 Florida Winter

[HudsonBill]

38 degrees at 730pm already..... I'll be in the mid 20s tonight easily. No freeze or frost warnings because most meteorologist have no clue

 

[Matthew92]

This is the time to watch especially. 

[kinzyjr]

29 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

38 degrees at 730pm already..... I'll be in the mid 20s tonight easily. No freeze or frost warnings because most meteorologist have no clue

 

My area is under a cold weather advisory, but there will likely be a lot of frost in open areas tomorrow morning.

18 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

This is the time to watch especially. 

It's looking like the 29th might be bad.

[Jimbean]

39F this morning. 

[HudsonBill]

Just like I thought. 29.8 as if right now and still dropping. Tonight ended up being the worst night of the year as in duration below freezing. The meteorogist fumbled like always. Forecast low was 35 ill end up at 28ish 

[flplantguy]

The forecast difference is really bad when it's off by this much so often. That's a choice to ignore since they have stations and see it. But heaven forbid they admit that part of their perfect paradise is not so perfect.  All the newcomers that ripped out their native trees for adonidias are going to be calling now about it since they didn't ask first about them and found out the hard way. Mine is still alive somehow under canopy, one of the bigger surprises.

[HudsonBill]

14 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

The forecast difference is really bad when it's off by this much so often. That's a choice to ignore since they have stations and see it. But heaven forbid they admit that part of their perfect paradise is not so perfect.  All the newcomers that ripped out their native trees for adonidias are going to be calling now about it since they didn't ask first about them and found out the hard way. Mine is still alive somehow under canopy, one of the bigger surprises.

Exactly! They know it gets this cold in this area and they ignore it. 

[malibu31]

On 1/18/2026 at 7:57 PM, Merlyn said:

@malibu31 generally I just fertilize in early spring and give the Alfredii a bit of extra Magnesium Sulfate.  When I forget the extra Magnesium they tend to get more yellow tips, though that's just a general observation and not experimentally true.  

The only real risk to Alfredii seems to be hurricanes and maybe crown rot.  After winter I just keep an eye on new spear movement.  As long as they are growing new spear slowly but regularly then they'll grow out of any cold damage reasonably fast.

I really appreciate these tips! As a first-time palm grower, it is tough to find information about a specific palm tree (I assumed it was similar across different palms but have learned different, like coconuts like salt, etc.) so this is super nice of you to share your experiences 

West Ocala has been COLD this winter. Alfies, Mules and Washies have taken several hits into the mid 20s with no sign of this weather slowing down. My cameras went down over the weekend so I'm flying blind, only eyewitness there can report the damage to me. They say they're still green, but I guess I would like like to see it myself. 

It plunged down to 28° once again - when will the nightmare end??

[flplantguy]

More proof to me the a declining la Nina is bad for us. Or a transitional winter between the two.  Leads to multiple small events instead of one or none.  Bad but not record setting seems to be the new pattern.

[kinzyjr]

Overnight lows were 37F-38F throughout the garden this morning.  There was no frost in the yard or in the other yards in the area.  There was some scant frost on the rooftops and on the back window of the car.  There is an extended cold period in the forecast at the end of this month and  into next month.

[Merlyn]

@kinzyjr around 9PM last night I rechecked the forecast from Wunderground...still 41F all night.  I thought to myself, "Self, it is unlikely that this is correct.  It's already 40F here at 9PM."  I went out and put boxes on my 2 already frost-damaged palms and I'm glad I did!  30.7F with medium frost that burned off by about 8:30AM.

 

On 1/20/2026 at 7:47 AM, malibu31 said:

I really appreciate these tips! As a first-time palm grower, it is tough to find information about a specific palm tree (I assumed it was similar across different palms but have learned different, like coconuts like salt, etc.) so this is super nice of you to share your experiences 

West Ocala has been COLD this winter. Alfies, Mules and Washies have taken several hits into the mid 20s with no sign of this weather slowing down. My cameras went down over the weekend so I'm flying blind, only eyewitness there can report the damage to me. They say they're still green, but I guess I would like like to see it myself. 

It plunged down to 28° once again - when will the nightmare end??

Unfortunately it's probably going to be really cold next weekend too!  I had two warm winters back to back, with little to no damage to anything...even real tropicals.  This winter is making up for it, with Ficus Auriculata and a 35+ year old clump of Peace Lily burnt to a crisp.  Well...not a crisp.  More like a stinking pile of mush.  A lot of palms like Kings did great for a couple of years but are now 100% defoliated.  Hopefully the spears will grow out and look normal by late spring.  If not, my yard proves once again that it's a giant Darwinian experiment!

@kinzyjr maintains a great list of damage observations for hundreds of palm species.  I've contributed a bunch of observations to his list, as have probably a couple hundred other PTers.  If you are thinking about a new species in Ocala, you can check out the most recent post here:

 

[mnorell]

1 hour ago, Merlyn said:

Unfortunately it's probably going to be really cold next weekend too!  I had two warm winters back to back, with little to no damage to anything...even real tropicals.  This winter is making up for it, with Ficus Auriculata and a 35+ year old clump of Peace Lily burnt to a crisp.  Well...not a crisp.  More like a stinking pile of mush.  A lot of palms like Kings did great for a couple of years but are now 100% defoliated.  Hopefully the spears will grow out and look normal by late spring.  If not, my yard proves once again that it's a giant Darwinian experiment!

 

Merlyn, I wouldn't worry too much about your Ficus auriculata or your Spathiphyllum. I grew both of these when I lived in chilly (9a) Natchez, Mississippi, and Ficus auriculata would die back most years (typically lows in the low 20s with one to several hard freezes) and come roaring back from the roots in spring. I think it took the three solidly frozen days with lows of 18F in 2010 to finally kill it out. I also planted Spathiphyllum as a temporary/annual plant, thinking it was an ultra-sensitive plant. Lo and behold, was I surprised to see that despite the mush after a frost/freeze, it returned every year. I have in my notes from 2 April 2010 that "Spathiphyllum 'Giant Form' survived handily beneath the mulch and I removed the mulch and cleaned the plant, which has much growth, and leaves should be expanded in a week or so..." and also a note that all Spathiphyllum survived the 59-hour 2011 freeze, which bottomed out at about 22-23F for three nights in a row. I think with both of these where you are, a thick mulch of leaves is all you need to pretty confidently expect a return (that's usually what I provided mine with back in the day).

[Matthew92]

This post is not meant to alarm, only to demonstrate something. Yesterday there was some panic on X because the AIGFS model was showing an epic freeze for peninsular FL. While this was by far the coldest, other models did and still show the possibility of freezes down to Central FL. But if you look closely, this illustrates perfectly what has to happen to get a 1980's type freeze in FL. What needs to occur is the bowl of low pressure that comes down from the north has to dig in and amplify just to the northeast of around Jacksonville, FL so the winds flowing around it inject the cold air directly into the peninsula from the north. The lines around that dark blue area of low pressure are the direction the wind is driven (generally west to east). This is seen in the 500mb map attached below.

Now compare to the 12z run of the AIGFS model today. The bowl of low pressure is way up in the northeast and clearly doesn't pull that arctic air down into the peninsula.

It's not whether there's enough cold air coming south into the lower 48, It's a question of whether these high and low pressures will orient in a way to transport the cold air at the right angle down into the peninsula. If the bowl of low pressure sits on Alabama or Georgia the cold air blasts the FL Panhandle and then moves over the Gulf before going into the peninsula, and thus it gets moderated over the Gulf. That has been the pattern in recent years. However, lately these troughs of low pressure have oriented a little farther east lately and that is what's causing this recent cold weather in peninsular FL. 

Still need to watch though, because it's still far enough in time we don't know and on the same token some of the models leave room for the possibility of a digging trough to occur. This potential has been recognized by NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center as seen with the graphics I posted further up in this thread. 

[kinzyjr]

The hourly airport records for the last three days are attached as a ZIP file.

20260120_obhistory.zip

[Merlyn]

21 hours ago, mnorell said:

Merlyn, I wouldn't worry too much about your Ficus auriculata or your Spathiphyllum. I grew both of these when I lived in chilly (9a) Natchez, Mississippi, and Ficus auriculata would die back most years (typically lows in the low 20s with one to several hard freezes) and come roaring back from the roots in spring. I think it took the three solidly frozen days with lows of 18F in 2010 to finally kill it out. I also planted Spathiphyllum as a temporary/annual plant, thinking it was an ultra-sensitive plant. Lo and behold, was I surprised to see that despite the mush after a frost/freeze, it returned every year. I have in my notes from 2 April 2010 that "Spathiphyllum 'Giant Form' survived handily beneath the mulch and I removed the mulch and cleaned the plant, which has much growth, and leaves should be expanded in a week or so..." and also a note that all Spathiphyllum survived the 59-hour 2011 freeze, which bottomed out at about 22-23F for three nights in a row. I think with both of these where you are, a thick mulch of leaves is all you need to pretty confidently expect a return (that's usually what I provided mine with back in the day).

I'm sure with the hardiness you mentioned, both will grow back just fine.  The Peace Lily was planted by the original builder of my house, and it survived the 80s freezes!  It's under an overhang and just looks really horrible right now.  The Ficus have lost all the upper leaves, and the next lower set are all bronzed and wilted.  These have gone through ~25-26F and burned back to the roots, but came back really fast in the spring.  I'm guessing my "Autograph plant" (not sure which version it is) and seagrapes are similarly defoliated.  The seagrapes are around the same hardiness as the Ficus Auriculata so far, and also lost trunks but grew back from the roots.  The "Autograph plant" hasn't seen sub-freezing yet, so this will be a good test for it.

[JLM]

Its about to get downright cold out here.

Sunday night - 28F
Monday night - 22F
Tuesday night - 27F

Those numbers are from the NWS. Hopefully it doesnt drop anymore than that. Monitoring closely.

[OutpostPalms]

I’m not sure which is worse. High frequency of light to moderate freezes or one or two doozy freezes in an otherwise mild winter. Last year was infrequent severe freezes for me. This year is frequent lighter freezes. Sunday night will already have me matching the frost count from last winter but going by zones it’s a full zone warmer this year. 

[Jdash]

@Merlyn how are the more tropical zamias doing over there? (standleyi, nesophila, fairchild) and also how's the arenga hookeriana or other tropical species?

[Matthew92]

 

 

 

Moved further south

[kinzyjr]

2 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Moved further south

I noticed my forecast lows for Monday went from 42 to 36 on NWS - a lot closer to the Weather.com forecast of 34F.  The rest of the days thus far are higher on NWS, but I'm not that optimistic at this point.

[Merlyn]

@kinzyjr they are saying lows of 35, 36, 40, 34, 36, 40 here, with highs around 55 to 65.  Given those estimates it may be several days around 30-34 for me, with frost likely every day.  Lots of stuff here is already mushy bronze.

@Jdash the Nesophila look pristine, under only partial cover.  Both are about 5 to 8 feet from the house, so I am sure fhat helps.  Furfuracea exposed are all 100% defoliated, but probably will grow back fine.  I'll have to go look at the others, I don't recall what they looked like when I was wandering around the yard yesterday.  Most are under heavier cover than in past years, so I expect they will be in ok condition.  The frost was a bigger hazard to those plants than just cold temps.  But my absolute low this year was also about 27.5 compared to 24.6, which could be the difference between minor and heavy damage.

The Hookeriana look nearly pristine, with just some brown spots but no significant burn.  The Autograph plant and Seagrapes are both torched on the upper exposed leaves but fairly clean below.  Ficus Auriculata are both torched top to bottom.  Kings are 100% burnt.  I'll have to do a full inventory this weekend before next week's front.

[kinzyjr]

18 minutes ago, Merlyn said:

they are saying lows of 35, 36, 40, 34, 36, 40 here, with highs around 55 to 65.  Given those estimates it may be several days around 30-34 for me, with frost likely every day.  Lots of stuff here is already mushy bronze.

Currently, the NWS is a little more favorable than Weather.com.  At this point, we'll see what happens and live with the results.  There are some tattered fronds here, but nothing near death yet.  After this mess, that could change.

 

[FlaPalmLover]

My foxtail ended up sustaining some mild burn/brown spots but still looks solid. There's a possible low in the high-20s in the forecast for next weekend, so it will be interesting to see how it does. My king palm is still doing fairly well as it is under canopy. I haven't driven past the coconut that's not too far away to see how it's handling everything yet.

[OutpostPalms]

Forecast looking rough Monday and Tuesday morning. Sunday pretty crazy. High is 62 low is 24. So much for my 9B winter hopes. Good news is the temps later in the week are trending higher which is outstanding because I’ll be out of town! 

[JLM]

NWS now forecasting 19F for Monday night.

[SubTropicRay]

This is trending in the wrong direction.

reposting for educational purposes.  Translate as you see fit for your area.

[Jimbean]

For now the forecast looks like low 40's here.  So far the lowest I've had for the season was 35.2F.  It will be interesting watching this unfold. 

[The7thLegend]

Are we sure this is a La Nina winter?  Seems colder, even wetter with all these snow possibilities.

 

 

[flplantguy]

Freeze watch is out for some of Florida down to coastal Pasco county.  I'm at 32 multiple days, and 7 days below 40 by the last forecast day the NWS does. That's getting into dangerous territory for those to drop lower but the sun will be out at least.

[OutpostPalms]

I think this week is going to stress me if it hasn’t already. Yesterday I wrapped up the bismarkias with their blankets, tarps, and lights well ahead of the cold since I didn’t want them rained on.

Woke up to 69 degrees this morning but dropped 20 degrees in the last hour or so and is down to 49 already. Got about 1.5” of rain last 24 hours so everything’s going to be soaked for this freeze. Weather report says low 24 degrees tonight and 22 tomorrow night. 
 

tropicals are still on the porch drying off a bit before they come in. They’d be dry if it wasn’t raining sideways. Plus one butia that’s still in a pot waiting to be planted. 

 

Then to add to the dramas my neighbor bulldozed one of my Washingtonias and I now have it staked because it won’t stay up on its own. I hope it makes it through all this because it has been my fastest grower and is bigger than some of my others that are a year or two older. 
 

 

To top things off Ive got a short notice need to leave town later in the week and there’s some weather reports for next weekend looking bad so the potted palms will stay inside but not sure what I’ll do with the bismarkias. I may have to just let them out and hope for the best. Weather channel says everything will be fine with lows in the 30s next weekend. My phone is calling for some apocalyptic freeze to 19 degrees at the same time. 
 

Anyways good luck to all this week. 

[kinzyjr]

It was perfect tour weather for @PalmBossTampa and @Midnight Gardener over the weekend.  The high at the airport today was 88F, breaking the old record by 3^oF.  Now we get about two weeks of garbage weather.  Since the NWS and Weather.com forecasts are almost identical, we'll just stick with the graphic below +/-1.  We'll see how this holds up and how the plants hold up to it:

[JLM]

Forecast lows over the next 7 days here:

Tonight - 25F
Monday night - 21F
Tuesday night - 26F
Wednesday night - 26F
Thursday night - 31F
Friday night - 26F
Saturday night - 23F

Gonna be a rough week. Gonna be protecting a lot of things tomorrow, I dont plan on gambling with this. Not betting the last 6 and a half years of my life on the forecast being correct to the T.

[HudsonBill]

Tell me this isn't normal here? I'm getting pissed off about this. Wtf is teh point of living in florida if you can't grow anything unless your a billionaire living on the beach. This winter ill end up below freezing probably 12 times right north of tampa. Is this normal? This january is well below average but gauruntee tge media will try and tell us it was the warmest on record. 

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, HudsonBill said:

Tell me this isn't normal here? I'm getting pissed off about this. Wtf is teh point of living in florida if you can't grow anything unless your a billionaire living on the beach. This winter ill end up below freezing probably 12 times right north of tampa. Is this normal? This january is well below average but gauruntee tge media will try and tell us it was the warmest on record. 

Actually it was worse in the past by nearly every metric. 

In terms of absolute minimum temperature, The freezes in the 1980s, 1962, and 1890s were dreadful.  Most of the places getting 20s and 30s next week went into the teens during some or all of those events.

In terms of hardiness zones, the forecast from Weather.com has my minimum during this event at 32F.  The minimum for the entire winter thus far is 31F.  That's in line with the 2023 USDA Hardiness Map putting my portion of Lakeland in USDA 10a.  The 1990 zone map had Lakeland in 9a and Orlando in 9b.  That means the locations in question averaged low-20s and mid-20s each year, respectively.  The zone maps from 1990, 2012, and 2023 show the change over time, even if they aren't great planting guides by themselves.

In terms of long stretches of below average temperatures, January 1940, January 1977, Jan/Feb 1996, January 2010, and December 2010 had long stretches of cold that were much worse than this.

While I wouldn't call it normal or typical, it does happen with regularity.  

[flplantguy]

I agree that it feels like it's increased in frequency the last few years but it's the cycle all over again. I'm hoping it will flip back the next few years and let my garden grow in before it returns again. I'll have to look at extremeweatherwatch.com and see how this stacks up after. It blows but it also hasn't even started. We could be expectant just for nothing, or hopeful just to have our gardens sent to the compost heap, we won't know for a bit yet. And then the chill damage has to be dealt with. That's what took out most of mine last year. This begins the winter marathon of protection and peroxide in the crowns after going well into march.  Hopefully everyone does ok and has a plan for after if need be. As implied above, if you plan well and didn't zone push too much you should be fine. Cold comfort that is, no pun intended.

[HudsonBill]

On 1/25/2026 at 10:12 PM, kinzyjr said:

Actually it was worse in the past by nearly every metric. 

In terms of absolute minimum temperature, The freezes in the 1980s, 1962, and 1890s were dreadful.  Most of the places getting 20s and 30s next week went into the teens during some or all of those events.

In terms of hardiness zones, the forecast from Weather.com has my minimum during this event at 32F.  The minimum for the entire winter thus far is 31F.  That's in line with the 2023 USDA Hardiness Map putting my portion of Lakeland in USDA 10a.  The 1990 zone map had Lakeland in 9a and Orlando in 9b.  That means the locations in question averaged low-20s and mid-20s each year, respectively.  The zone maps from 1990, 2012, and 2023 show the change over time, even if they aren't great planting guides by themselves.

In terms of long stretches of below average temperatures, January 1940, January 1977, Jan/Feb 1996, January 2010, and December 2010 had long stretches of cold that were much worse than this.

While I wouldn't call it normal or typical, it does happen with regularity.  

Look at the computer models for the next week coming up. Most are getting colder and colder with low 20s deep into fl 30s and 40s for highs in central fl for days in a row. This next week or so will be as bad as back in history. 

 

Its on every run every model is showing similar around the same day.  If it was 200 plus hours our id drug it off but it's not its 156 hours and sooner. 

 

Gfs same day...... they all show it. 

[80s Kid]

3 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

Tell me this isn't normal here? I'm getting pissed off about this. Wtf is teh point of living in florida if you can't grow anything unless your a billionaire living on the beach. This winter ill end up below freezing probably 12 times right north of tampa. Is this normal? This january is well below average but gauruntee tge media will try and tell us it was the warmest on record. 

Here's how bad things can get in FL if you're looking for the worst case scenario: 

 

 

[Hombre de Palmas]

These model runs paint a dire picture and they are virtually on our doorstep, which is most concerning. The NWS Melbourne synopsis this morning is issuing a heads up. I will include it (edited for brevity) is it is worth a read. Of course, you can go to the NWS site for the complete synopsis.

The door remains wide open for additional surges of Arctic
air into the eastern United States over the next week to
ten days. Teleconnection graphs show a `trifecta` of sorts for
unusually cold weather. First, the Arctic Oscillation is reaching
a nadir of -5 early this week and is forecast to remain negative
for the balance of the next two weeks. NAO has also gone negative,
and right on cue, the PNA is going positive. Hemispheric charts
tell the tale as H5 heights are forecast to remain above normal
over the Arctic. This displaces much colder air southward into the
mid-latitudes.

While below normal temperatures are favored for the foreseeable
future, timing out and assessing the risks for impactful cold
and freezing temperatures across Central Florida will require a
closer look at individual disturbances within this active weather
pattern. There are a pair of features worth keeping an eye on from
later this week through the weekend.

First, a piece of energy should pass from the Rockies into the
Southeast around Thursday, reinforcing the Arctic air mass over the
Eastern U.S. Trailing close behind appears to be another shortwave
approaching Florida by around Saturday. Cluster analysis from the
25/12Z suite, along with early-arriving 26/00Z guidance, leaned
toward some phasing of this feature with a lobe of the polar vortex
to the north of the state. However, confidence remains very low,
evidenced by a very large H5 height interquartile spread by next
Sunday. If this disturbance interacts with the northern stream, the
cold risks for Central Florida would become even more significant
by the weekend.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Weekend...

To start off, there is no question that the forecast for the coming
weekend will remain highly variable for at least two to three more
days. The primary challenge is resolving whether two distinct pieces
of energy, currently thousands of miles apart, will interact to form
a large nor`easter-type storm along the Eastern Seaboard. While the
trend has been moving in that direction over the last day or so,
several ensemble members keep the features separated as they make
their closest approach to Florida. This distinction is critical:
when compared to a disorganized system, a strengthening low off
the east coast could very effectively pull Arctic air much
farther southward through the peninsula.

What this means is a period of heightened uncertainty regarding
both moisture and temperatures. We will carry low rain chances
of 20-30% on Saturday as moisture tries to increase ahead of the
arriving energy. If the two features mentioned before do interact,
a blast of windy and much colder air would likely be felt here in
Central Florida beginning sometime late Saturday and continuing into
Sunday. Statistical guidance clearly illustrates the low-confidence
scenario we are dealing with, as interquartile spreads jump to 10
to 15 degrees for both high and low temperatures from Saturday
through Monday.

Whether temperatures remain manageably cooler than normal or become
significantly colder than normal is still in question. While this
is more of a reasonable worst-case scenario signal, the overall
pattern we are entering has historically supported major freezes
and significant cold air outbreaks in Florida. Those making plans
outdoors or whom have sensitive agricultural interests should
keep a close eye on the forecast as this hopefully becomes clearer
by mid-week.

&&

The ramifications of an event such as this, if it plays out, will be felt far beyond the palm community.  Let's hope that the worst scenario is avoided and best of luck to all. 

[ahosey01]

GFS saying 24F for Orlando on Feb 1.  Fingers crossed for you guys that's wrong.

[kinzyjr]

7 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

Look at the computer models for the next week coming up. Most are getting colder and colder with low 20s deep into fl 30s and 40s for highs in central fl for days in a row. This next week or so will be as bad as back in history. 

This is what it looks like now for here - more like 2010: 16th Anniversary Edition.  We'll see if it gets better or worse.  When this stuff comes along, about all you can do is live through it and tell the story.