2025/2026 Winter

[PAPalmtrees]

Well it looks like we may have a rough winter ahead I am not looking forward to this if it's true. (Note please trust these maps with a grain of salt this is just what our prediction is this could not be true or it could be true we don't know yet) https://www.farmersalmanac.com/extended-forecast

[flplantguy]

I have been watching the patterns they are looking at and am also concerned, but they said one thing and it was another reality last winter too. All it takes is one just like hurricanes i guess.  Hopefully not, but this decade feels like it wants to be difficult so im going to be fully prepared in advance.

[PAPalmtrees]

1 hour ago, flplantguy said:

I have been watching the patterns they are looking at and am also concerned, but they said one thing and it was another reality last winter too. All it takes is one just like hurricanes i guess.  Hopefully not, but this decade feels like it wants to be difficult so im going to be fully prepared in advance.

Yeah I agree. I am also preparing to protect palms and plants that I don't usually protect.

[SubTropicRay]

When was the last winter where you said “this is gonna be a good one!”

[PAPalmtrees]

6 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

When was the last winter where you said “this is gonna be a good one!”

Umm never LOL.

[JohnAndSancho]

Last winter, we got tons of snow just to the north of us and just to the south of us. We were fortunate enough (heavy on the sarcasm) that it was entirely too cold for snow here for that event. I'm just gonna prepare for the worst since everything I'm planting out is tiny. I see lots of buckets and grocery bags full of mulch in my future. 

[PAPalmtrees]

just watch this video winter does not look like it's gonna be good for us 😭

😭😭

[JohnAndSancho]

On 8/30/2025 at 3:48 PM, PAPalmtrees said:

just watch this video winter does not look like it's gonna be good for us 😭

😭😭

I don't wanna be that guy but it sounds great for me. I get to sit here in warmer temps without much worry while watching snowy football games? Anyway good luck to us all, because we all know that nothing is guaranteed and we never know what's gonna happen until it happens anymore. It's just a guessing game at this point, until it happens and then it's an oh 💩 moment. 

[PAPalmtrees]

1 hour ago, JohnAndSancho said:

I don't wanna be that guy but it sounds great for me. I get to sit here in warmer temps without much worry while watching snowy football games? Anyway good luck to us all, because we all know that nothing is guaranteed and we never know what's gonna happen until it happens anymore. It's just a guessing game at this point, until it happens and then it's an oh 💩 moment. 

Yep 100% agree. Just keep me in your prayers LOL. I'm in this area so pretty much the battle area wish me luck lol

[JohnAndSancho]

Good vibes homey! 

[Mazat]

On 8/26/2025 at 3:23 AM, SubTropicRay said:

When was the last winter where you said “this is gonna be a good one!”

That's a really good question, and it's difficult to answer positively with facts, of course. As far as I know, there have rarely been really good mild winters here, at least not consistently.

[Mazat]

On 8/25/2025 at 5:06 PM, PAPalmtrees said:

Well it looks like we may have a rough winter ahead I am not looking forward to this if it's true. (Note please trust these maps with a grain of salt this is just what our prediction is this could not be true or it could be true we don't know yet) https://www.farmersalmanac.com/extended-forecast

Bodie, all we can do is protect, hope, and wait.

[Mazat]

On 8/26/2025 at 6:23 AM, JohnAndSancho said:

Last winter, we got tons of snow just to the north of us and just to the south of us. We were fortunate enough (heavy on the sarcasm) that it was entirely too cold for snow here for that event. I'm just gonna prepare for the worst since everything I'm planting out is tiny. I see lots of buckets and grocery bags full of mulch in my future. 

Yes, we read about that, or rather looked it up at your weather stations. Extreme amounts, totally crazy and often bad for exotic plants ... 😒

[JohnAndSancho]

My mom and brother both ended up in the hospital around that time. My brother actually got his 2nd helicopter flight to another hospital a few hours away so the last thing on my mind was bringing plants in. My Mangave literally melted. 

 

But this mofo right here, the most expensive and most rare palm I own, IT LIVES. Patrick Schafer Butia x Lytocaryum Weddelanium. It survived that 9°F, in a pot, protected only by a waist high brick wall. Sure it looks like crap right now and it has all year, but it's alive. 

[PAPalmtrees]

27 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

My mom and brother both ended up in the hospital around that time. My brother actually got his 2nd helicopter flight to another hospital a few hours away so the last thing on my mind was bringing plants in. My Mangave literally melted. 

 

But this mofo right here, the most expensive and most rare palm I own, IT LIVES. Patrick Schafer Butia x Lytocaryum Weddelanium. It survived that 9°F, in a pot, protected only by a waist high brick wall. Sure it looks like crap right now and it has all year, but it's alive. 

ohh my gosh i'm really sorry that happened I hope they're doing well.

[JohnAndSancho]

53 minutes ago, PAPalmtrees said:

ohh my gosh i'm really sorry that happened I hope they're doing well.

My mom is gonna be 75 this year and she's got a pile of back problems, but she keeps getting severe UTIs. My brother has Crohn's, UC, and something with his blood where he needs magnesium transfusions pretty regularly. On top of that his feet are severely messed up from the Army, and when he has these flare ups, every joint in his body just locks up. I keep telling them it's my turn to go to the hospital but they won't listen. (The hospital here actually has good food and really good Wi-Fi) But they're ok for now. Thank you for the good vibes. 

[UK_Palms]

Based off the current setup and the proposed setup moving towards winter, the main analog years/winters that come up are 2000/21, 2007/08, 2013/14, 2017/18 and also 2020/21. It does look kind of similar to the 2020/21 winter, which Texas folk won't want to hear. 😬I would say the analog below looks a nightmare as well for those of you in the Mid-west USA. Lots of polar air coming down from Canada and also clear skies at night for brutal radiation freezes. Of course none of this really means anything that this stage. We could get just about anything.

There is some cause for concern in Europe as well. I think Scandinavia and eastern/central Europe could be in for a brutal old-school winter this time around, after 2 consecutive, back to back record warm/mild winters. Russia and eastern Europe especially look primed for very cold temperatures this time around. Northerly air flows and lots of clear skies at night. The UK and western Europe is up in the air with low pressure and cloud cover more likely, mitigating any brutal nights. Likely an Atlantic onslaught during Jan-Feb for the UK looking at that, which ultimately means very mild. Cold chances likely restricted to December for us here. 

Just some observations...

[SeanK]

I caught Max Velocity (weather) this morning. Guy is comparing this winter to 2013-2014. That was a cold winter with the big snowfall across I20.

[JohnAndSancho]

7 hours ago, SeanK said:

I caught Max Velocity (weather) this morning. Guy is comparing this winter to 2013-2014. That was a cold winter with the big snowfall across I20.

I do not like this, I20 is only ~30 miles north of me. 

[PAPalmtrees]

11 hours ago, SeanK said:

I caught Max Velocity (weather) this morning. Guy is comparing this winter to 2013-2014. That was a cold winter with the big snowfall across I20.

 I haven't watched his new video but yeah that's what I've heard

[SeanK]

4 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

I do not like this, I20 is only ~30 miles north of me. 

That snow made it all the way to Greenville.

[JohnAndSancho]

4 minutes ago, SeanK said:

That snow made it all the way to Greenville.

I was in Houston back then. It had been a while since I saw snow at the time. I miss those days. 

[PAPalmtrees]

https://youtu.be/WaOyO5QIfJI?si=ValWfaJy0Ajbmc7i

[Chester B]

2 hours ago, PAPalmtrees said:

https://youtu.be/WaOyO5QIfJI?si=ValWfaJy0Ajbmc7i

I saw the total opposite of this today.  La Nina is coming into effect causing warmer and drier than normal especially for the south.

So really I don't think they can really tell us more than a couple of weeks out what the trends will be.

[PAPalmtrees]

7 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I saw the total opposite of this today.  La Nina is coming into effect causing warmer and drier than normal especially for the south.

So really I don't think they can really tell us more than a couple of weeks out what the trends will be.

Yes I totally agree it keeps changing we really don't know until winter is here and then we can see the real predictions

[Silas_Sancona]

3 hours ago, Chester B said:

I saw the total opposite of this today.  La Nina is coming into effect causing warmer and drier than normal especially for the south.

So really I don't think they can really tell us more than a couple of weeks out what the trends will be.

You do realize that Y or X phase of ENSO is one  puzzle piece ( -of many- ) in what drives the weather during a given season, right? 

True that we ..could..  be headed into a La Nina cycle ...which, for the moment, looks weak, -at best...  It may not even really " breach " the La Nina threshold before headed back toward neutral ..or possibly in an El Nino direction.. 

Typically, atmosphere takes ~approx 3 months to " feel out " and start responding to what the ocean surface is doing -which ever way it is leaning-  so, if this La Nina doesn't even breach La Nina status for longer than a month or two? ..Atmosphere could just shrug it off as a cool blip on an otherwise neutral radar.. 

Current CFSv2 Spaghetti ..... Black dashed line = current thinking of where things might head..



That weakness means any one ..or combination of... other puzzle pieces can blur any ..or many... of the assumed outcomes associated w/ that signal reasonably easily if they decide to dominate   so,  Just because the current ENSO signal may suggest  ...a dry winter again here for instance ( I'm perfectly fine w/ that too ),   ..something exerting more weight in the global Wx patterns  over the coming months could lead to a different outcome than suggested   ..because whatever La Nina develops this year doesn't look strong enough to dominate.   Could change of course, but    ..Is what it is,  for now.. 



 Index would need to drop hard, well below  -1  ...and stay there for the next 3 or 4 months..   to be considered a puzzle piece that can exert real dominance over many or all the other factors that might influence this winter's overall weather pattern.


Bigger story for the winter ahead, that has been mentioned by pretty much every outlook i've listened to / carefully read over??

Anywhere east of a line running from roughly Portland to Denver, then south to El Paso,  P.V. antics could be the main wild card to watch rather than anything ENSO related.. 

 '13-14 reference seems to be the trendy season many are looking at but would add '20-21 to the bingo pot as well..

will be interesting to see if some people's thoughts on the PAC. N.W. being dry and warm this year actually pans out.. Hoping for that but....


Also curious how a suggested SSW event unfolding in the S. Hemisphere may impact the weather on this side of the EQ. 

Has in the past.. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/south-polar-vortex-stratospheric-warming-event-weather-winter-impact-usa-canada-fa/

[jwf1983]

On 8/25/2025 at 11:06 AM, PAPalmtrees said:

Well it looks like we may have a rough winter ahead I am not looking forward to this if it's true. (Note please trust these maps with a grain of salt this is just what our prediction is this could not be true or it could be true we don't know yet) https://www.farmersalmanac.com/extended-forecast

Ha! I would seriously take the Farmer’s Almanac with a huge grain of salt, if any.  My experience is that it’s extremely vague, and not reliable.  Long range forecasts by meteorologists are often inaccurate.  To say that it will be “cold and snowy” for about 1/7 of the country, including random expanses of the country from Minnesota to Memphis—two places with extremely different winters, in different climate zones, doesn’t even seem to make sense, and it’s seemly at random.  Around here, each year the Washington Post makes their long range winter forecast, with all meteorologists make their own predictions with regard to temps and total snowfall.  Nearly every year, most of these predictions turn out wildly inaccurate.  The one thing that has been consistent year over year, is that each winter, and nearly every winter month ends up between 3-5F warmer than the latest 30 year set of average temperatures in our area (NoMa, Washington, DC).

[PAPalmtrees]

1 hour ago, jwf1983 said:

Ha! I would seriously take the Farmer’s Almanac with a huge grain of salt, if any.  My experience is that it’s extremely vague, and not reliable.  Long range forecasts by meteorologists are often inaccurate.  To say that it will be “cold and snowy” for about 1/7 of the country, including random expanses of the country from Minnesota to Memphis—two places with extremely different winters, in different climate zones, doesn’t even seem to make sense, and it’s seemly at random.  Around here, each year the Washington Post makes their long range winter forecast, with all meteorologists make their own predictions with regard to temps and total snowfall.  Nearly every year, most of these predictions turn out wildly inaccurate.  The one thing that has been consistent year over year, is that each winter, and nearly every winter month ends up between 3-5F warmer than the latest 30 year set of average temperatures in our area (NoMa, Washington, DC).

Yep I 100% agree you really have to take these long term winter predictions with a grain of salt They are normally incorrect,   it it's just a waiting game

[SeanK]

12 hours ago, PAPalmtrees said:

Yep I 100% agree you really have to take these long term winter predictions with a grain of salt They are normally incorrect,   it it's just a waiting game

Every spring, the NWS and others consistently predict a higher number than average for hurricanes. They're consistently wrong.

[PalmatierMeg]

We getting cool fronts and dry air over a month before dry season/winter starts (Oct. 15). Not a comforting thought.