Southern Hemisphere Winter 25

[cbmnz]

Almost that time again.

A few very clear and calm nights coming up,  no frost risk but if this was in 3 weeks time....

Palms had a great growing season,  really getting sizeable now.  Got less protection to do this winter as most palms are getting too big to protect now.

Oldest current stalk of banana has just popped out the flower head now - not the best time, see what happens.  Last year I was able to leave the bunch on right through winter, brief dips to -2C burnt leaves but didn't affect the bunch.
 

[Tyrone]

Yes winter is just around the corner. Have had the fire going on and off in the house for a few weeks. We get some warm weather, then cool, then back to warm. The last few days have managed to crack the 20C zone but today is forecast 26, then tomorrow 28C then back to low to mid twenties which is actually quite mild for my area. The days are way short now. 5.15pm and the sun has set. No time to do much after work. 
Looking at sea surface temps and in the Australian zone they’re higher than average everywhere. Also the run up to winter has been very mild. Could we manage another mild frost free winter this year. I hope so. 
In regards to bananas I’ve had two large bunches ripen up over summer. The last one was a flower that formed and opened in July mid winter. It opened up on a 3C night which surprised me. I’ve got my first Goldfinger banana flowering now. I planted it about 18months ago as a 5L container and it’s now got a main stem 30cm across at the base and roughly 5m tall. Will see how it goes.

[cbmnz]

10 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Looking at sea surface temps and in the Australian zone they’re higher than average everywhere. 

 

Hmm, same here. According to this site, about the 18/19 April something caused them to rise considerably. There was a visit from an extratropical cyclone at that time, but they normally stir up the water column and bring SST down.

https://www.moanaproject.org/marine-heatwave-forecast

Goldfinger bananas look like they are a little larger than the lady finger I grow here. 

[Tyrone]

Was just reading yesterday (I wish I could find the article) that sea surface temps are very high in the Australia region-(this would include NZ too) that they felt winter would be a mild event and short again this year and possibly the new normal. It has other dire consequences like reduced rainfall in southern parts of Australia. However with increased sst you get higher humidity so when the atmosphere lines up for wet events you get heavier rainfall than usual. That seems to be already happening in my area. 130mm in 2hrs back in mid March. It was possibly the warmest and most humid growing season ever. We didn’t get one low humidity event at all. 

Those gold fingers look like a big banana. I’m growing 9 different banana types now. Will see how they compare over time.

Had a cool night with a min of 6.7C. Forecast was for 12C. Not real close. Forecast is for 28C then back to 22,23 for the rest of the week. 
 

BTW that Moana project is really detailed. New Zealanders really take their weather seriously. Some good resources over there. 

[cbmnz]

See you have a warm patch coming around the point. Last year had quite a cool March and April, made me think winter could be harsh but it did not come to anything. This year much warmer so far, might be giving a false sense of security, we'll see. 

[Tyrone]

Well it feels like we are descending on the on ramp into winter. Lots of single digit nights interspersed with the odd night in double digits when the clouds act like blankets at night. Had a 15C min on Monday morning which was warm. Days in the low twenties but under cloud high teens. Lots of high pressure zones and virtually zero rain. I think cold fronts may be few and far between this winter. Got some good sun for the next few days and max of 25C on Sunday. With all the high pressure zones hanging around it’s a very calm time of year lacking strong winds, just chilly at night. 

[tim_brissy_13]

The last 3 mornings in a row have been -0.4C, 1.1C and 0.9C. That’s close to as bad a 3 night stretch as we get any winter let alone in May before it has begun. 

[cbmnz]

5 hours ago, tim_brissy_13 said:

The last 3 mornings in a row have been -0.4C, 1.1C and 0.9C. That’s close to as bad a 3 night stretch as we get any winter let alone in May before it has begun. 

Surprised to hear that.  Was going to say no obvious incursion of cold Southerly air but if I wind back on Earth Null-school I see there was, starting last Saturday. 

Some risk of  the first dip below 0 here tonight, if not, will make it into June with no freeze.  Hoping the forecast still being 1C, and a 19C high I recorded this afternoon will prevent any damage. 

The A. Alexandre and the leaves of the Bananas will be the first to show any effect of the cold.  

[Tyrone]

9 hours ago, tim_brissy_13 said:

The last 3 mornings in a row have been -0.4C, 1.1C and 0.9C. That’s close to as bad a 3 night stretch as we get any winter let alone in May before it has begun. 

That is terrifying for May. Hopefully some cloud cover at night will come your way. 

[tim_brissy_13]

4 hours ago, Tyrone said:

That is terrifying for May. Hopefully some cloud cover at night will come your way. 

Clear skies again this morning down to 4C and looks similar tomorrow morning. Then we get some cloud cover and showers roll through with minimums back up around 10C for a while. 

[Tyrone]

2 hours ago, tim_brissy_13 said:

Clear skies again this morning down to 4C and looks similar tomorrow morning. Then we get some cloud cover and showers roll through with minimums back up around 10C for a while. 

Those high pressure systems are a pain. Clear skies, dead still, perfect set up for a radiative freeze especially if the day hasn’t really had any heat and the daylight hours are short, like now. 
It’s been cold over here with the exact same scenario but thankfully a few degrees warmer. It’s down to 10C by 7pm and then the temp just sinks. Yesterday luckily we only went down to 3C and this morning about the same. Saved by a breeze that just started about 30 minutes ago. However a cold front is coming through tonight with westerly winds and we start getting winter weather with unsettled rain periods, cloud and rain which pumps a bit of heat into the atmosphere plus blankets at night when there’s clouds. The joys of winter. 

[tropicbreeze]

The wet season ended rather abruptly. Although this past week there's been an unusual (but not unheard of) re-humidification with some places actually getting a bit of rain. Night temperatures are higher (last night's minimum here was 25.4) but will soon start dropping. Daytimes have generally been a bit lower than usual. For the next few months however, it will be the usual hot dry sunny days with cool nights. Nothing will happen until September, or maybe even October. This is when the weather bureau staff take holidays.

[cbmnz]

I'm sure it would only be considered mild to moderate by Australian or US standards but had easily the worst hail storm in going on 23 years at this address today.  It was widespread and hammered most of the town.

It's certainly split the leaflets open on some of my palms, and made a mess of banana's leaves but otherwise, no damage. 

My prized R. Baueri was looking picture perfect a month ago but since then a massive leaf boot and unopened flower case fell on it from the queen palm above, and now this. 

Still, the damage is far less obvious than what a bad freeze would do so would rather have this.

 

 

[Phil Petersen]

A bit bleak here! First winter in the ground with no shade cloth for a few palms at my place - so will be good to see how they look by end of winter.  Summer was good for growing some stouter, less stretched fronds

 

[happypalms]

6 hours ago, Phil Petersen said:

A bit bleak here! First winter in the ground with no shade cloth for a few palms at my place - so will be good to see how they look by end of winter.  Summer was good for growing some stouter, less stretched fronds

 

You can have those temps on your own. I think of New Zealand and footrot flats (Murry  ball) and sheep come to mind and  cold weather, oh and that you can’t say six. Kiwis across the ditch😀

[cbmnz]

Got though without a frost despite a -1C forecast. Have to check my records as to what is the latest date for the first dip below 0.  Have had whole of June stay above 0 before but that was after some marginal dips in May.  Bananas would still look great if they were not shredded by the hail last week.

[cbmnz]

From my station's records
2017 21 May
2018 1 Jun 
2019 3 Jun
2020 21 May
2021 14 May
2022 12 May
2023 14 Jun
2024 10 May

If as is now forecast, get through and past next weekend, will be in uncharted waters. 

[cbmnz]

First sub-zero looking likely tonight, but nothing extreme.  Expect about -0.5 to -0.9 with about 2 hours below freezing.  May brown banana leaves but no other damage. 

[cbmnz]

-1.1C in the end which was at the bottom end of what I was expecting. Surprisingly, don't see any damage even to bananas yet, but it might take a little while to show.

[Phil Petersen]

We got down to 2.7 deg C yesterday which was low enough to get a light ground frost and on car windscreens. The gully parts of the city away from the harbour would have copped more.

   

[Tyrone]

So far nothing below about 3C here and some days have been 20, 21C during the day. My second Gold finger banana is pushing a flower. Many palms are opening spears as it’s been very moist in the garden. No need to irrigate that’s for sure. 
Today we are getting a proper wintry blast. Max of about 13C with around 25mm forecast, possibly severe thunderstorms this arvo and small hail. That should make my lake system start to flow into the nearby river. 

[tropicbreeze]

This morning was quite good with a minimum of 23.7. I could quite easily "suffer" dry season mornings like that on a regular basis. But over the coming week it' heading back to normal. Days are still around the lower 30's and should stay like that until they start to ramp up in August. And dry, dry, dry at least for another three months. 

A friend gave me a banana sucker that had no roots. Thought it may not have had enough to survive on. After sulking for a while it's put out a sucker of its own which is now rocketing along. I suspect the original sucker will die off, but it's amazing how little they need to get going.

[Tyrone]

Had a beautiful sunny 22C day here today after a minimum of 8C. Gotta love winter days like this. It was better than some summers days here that often can be blowing a gale, cloudy and drizzling. 

[tim_brissy_13]

Right into the swing of typical Melbourne winter now. Only a couple of freezing nights, but just no heat during the days. Here’s the forecast for the next week. Too cold for Geonoma stricta it seems. On the plus side the Lepidorrhachis in front of it seem to be enjoying themselves. 

[Tyrone]

Been a mild winter so far. No freezing nights, but still got a lot of winter to go. Saturday looks more typical for July down here.

[Tyrone]

On 6/28/2025 at 6:24 PM, tim_brissy_13 said:

Right into the swing of typical Melbourne winter now. Only a couple of freezing nights, but just no heat during the days. Here’s the forecast for the next week. Too cold for Geonoma stricta it seems. On the plus side the Lepidorrhachis in front of it seem to be enjoying themselves. 

That’s a real shame about the Geonoma. Not an easy find. However your Lepidorachis look as happy as a pig in mud. 

[tim_brissy_13]

1 hour ago, Tyrone said:

That’s a real shame about the Geonoma. Not an easy find. However your Lepidorachis look as happy as a pig in mud. 

Geonomas have been heartbreakers for me so far. Just so touchy. First winter I’ve tested out G mooreana and G interrupta and doesn’t look like they’ll last long a 2 year old seedlings. A couple of G interrupta have some life left but not happy. G pohliana subsp pohliana and G pohliana subsp rubescens didn't even last through summer. I guess most just want consistent temps and consistent moisture and humidity which Melbourne can’t provide. My remaining G undata subsp undata do seem to be growing back now after a tough summer so I’ll probably be exclusively focusing on the high altitude sp from now on and possibly G schottiana which I think has some potential based on latitude range of habitat. 
 

Your winter temps look really nice. Im jealous!

[cbmnz]

A house down the road has a yard planted with a lot of bananas well away from the house, with no overhead cover at all.  They are still 90% green, as are mine ,which do cheat slightly by being very close to the house. Quite a strange site in July.

What is everyone's July record temperature? My station is properly shielded and exposed on a pole. Records since 2017,  July is the only month have never cracked 20C,. Actually have not gone above 18.3C in July.  June and August have cracked 20C but only once each, on the 1st June and the 29th August respectively.  Shows how much of a stretch it is to get above 20C in winter here, just possible in the right conditions at the very edge of winter on both sides.  

Have a forecast of 19C for this Friday , my station is usually about 1C warmer if there is any sun, so will see if can break July record.

 

[tim_brissy_13]

9 hours ago, cbmnz said:

A house down the road has a yard planted with a lot of bananas well away from the house, with no overhead cover at all.  They are still 90% green, as are mine ,which do cheat slightly by being very close to the house. Quite a strange site in July.

What is everyone's July record temperature? My station is properly shielded and exposed on a pole. Records since 2017,  July is the only month have never cracked 20C,. Actually have not gone above 18.3C in July.  June and August have cracked 20C but only once each, on the 1st June and the 29th August respectively.  Shows how much of a stretch it is to get above 20C in winter here, just possible in the right conditions at the very edge of winter on both sides.  

Have a forecast of 19C for this Friday , my station is usually about 1C warmer if there is any sun, so will see if can break July record.

 

Record July temp of 23.2C here which is actually hard to believe. Temperatures over 20C in July are so rare that I can’t say I can personally recall it happening.  Our 9th decile temperature is 16C in July which shows how chilly it usually is. 

[Tyrone]

The Albany Airport site which is the closest official site to me says a record max of 22.5C in July.  We have a forecast max of 20C today. It is quite uncommon to make 20C in July much less forecast a 20C day. We reached 19.5C yesterday. The office at work never had the heater put on after the 14C min we had. By the arvo it was quite warm from the sun. The avg max in July is 16.6C so this has been a warm start for July. The next two weeks is statistically the coldest and if you are going to get frost your most likely to get it in these two weeks. Looking at the projected weather patterns and the minimums and cloud cover I doubt we will see frost in the next 2 weeks which has me relieved. 

[Phil Petersen]

34 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

The Albany Airport site which is the closest official site to me says a record max of 22.5C in July.  We have a forecast max of 20C today. It is quite uncommon to make 20C in July much less forecast a 20C day. We reached 19.5C yesterday. The office at work never had the heater put on after the 14C min we had. By the arvo it was quite warm from the sun. The avg max in July is 16.6C so this has been a warm start for July. The next two weeks is statistically the coldest and if you are going to get frost your most likely to get it in these two weeks. Looking at the projected weather patterns and the minimums and cloud cover I doubt we will see frost in the next 2 weeks which has me relieved. 

Those are some nice mild temps for midwinter. Sounds atypical but good to hear as understand you can go subzero on occasion and need to rely on tree cover in those situations. I do remember you using fires and fans a few years back for a hard freeze?

 There was a very slight frost here this morning but nothing of concern.  The Rhopies dont seem fazed at all and are sited to avoid it. The one A. purpurea I have seems unfazed too. We are typically seeing conditions like below which arent extreme and its generally been OK.

last week we did have 60mm in one day which is a very large rainfall event in these parts - exceeding one typical month of rain. 

[cbmnz]

4 hours ago, tim_brissy_13 said:

Record July temp of 23.2C here which is actually hard to believe. Temperatures over 20C in July are so rare that I can’t say I can personally recall it happening.  Our 9th decile temperature is 16C in July which shows how chilly it usually is. 

23.2 does seem high. I wonder if that was recorded in the 1940's or eailier? At least over here, the records from 1940s and eailier do seem to contain some extremes, makes one wonder if the equipment and record keeping was as reliable back then.  The oldest records from the 1880's taken at Albert Park in Auckland City are quite wild, most don't take them seriously.

Would have thought Albany being about 4 degrees nearer equator would have the edge in terms of max possible July temp.

 

[tim_brissy_13]

2 hours ago, cbmnz said:

23.2 does seem high. I wonder if that was recorded in the 1940's or eailier? At least over here, the records from 1940s and eailier do seem to contain some extremes, makes one wonder if the equipment and record keeping was as reliable back then.  The oldest records from the 1880's taken at Albert Park in Auckland City are quite wild, most don't take them seriously.

Would have thought Albany being about 4 degrees nearer equator would have the edge in terms of max possible July temp.

 

Just checked and it was 2013. I guess rarely we do get string Northerlies in winter which result in mild temps. I’m sure that would’ve been the case on that occasion. Record highs for June and August are also from the early 2000s. I’d have to check but I’d guess those occasions would coincide with El Niño. 

[Tyrone]

It got to 20.2C here today after a min of 9.5C but most of the night sat between 11 to 14C. We had a bit of sun at times but mostly cloudy. It’s 14C and raining at 9.30pm. June rainfall was 110mm which is a little below average. 

[cbmnz]

Certainly odd seeing this this forecast from the official govt agency only 24hrs out (now been bumped to 20) when my own station has never gone above 18.3 in July.  

[Tyrone]

16 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Certainly odd seeing this this forecast from the official govt agency only 24hrs out (now been bumped to 20) when my own station has never gone above 18.3 in July.  

Let us know if you hit 20C. Tomorrow is 15C for me. 

Today was 11min to 16C max. In the last 24hrs we’ve had 41mm of rain. Everything is chocka block full of water. The stream running into the property has white foam and it’s bubbling loudly. It’s great to hear. This is the sort of rain we never got last winter. 
 

I’ve taken pics of one of my Ensete ventricosum doing well. 7 months ago this was just a seed. 

[cbmnz]

10 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Let us know if you hit 20C. Tomorrow is 15C for me. 

Today was 11min to 16C max. In the last 24hrs we’ve had 41mm of rain. Everything is chocka block full of water. The stream running into the property has white foam and it’s bubbling loudly. It’s great to hear. This is the sort of rain we never got last winter. 
 

I’ve taken pics of one of my Ensete ventricosum doing well. 7 months ago this was just a seed. 

19.6C at 11:57am so have smashed my record already and a good patch of sun that may last another hour or so.

[cbmnz]

5 hours ago, cbmnz said:

19.6C at 11:57am so have smashed my record already and a good patch of sun that may last another hour or so.

After looking like 19.6 would be the peak as it pleateaued then dipped, a second wind took it up to 20.3 just before 2pm.  A number of July maximum records around the upper North Island apparently fell today.

[PalmCode]

Just under 17c here at the moment with showers. Not sure what the temperature got to yesterday but it was a decently warm and sunny day for this time of year.

My chatham nikau flowering at the moment. 

[Tyrone]

1 hour ago, PalmCode said:

Just under 17c here at the moment with showers. Not sure what the temperature got to yesterday but it was a decently warm and sunny day for this time of year.

My chatham nikau flowering at the moment. 

Your Chatham looks like it has only one ring of trunk. That’s real cool. My biggest one isn’t far behind that one so hopefully in the next year I’m hopeful for a flower, then maybe seed.