TEXAS 2025

[Xenon]

Local media cold again and NWS missed the mark as well 

31F Central Houston (local media: 28F, NWS: 29F)

30F Uptown 

29F Katy (local media: 26F, NWS: 26F)

[RedRabbit]

I was expecting 27f. Three out of my four thermometers had a low of 31f so definitely a good surprise.

[MarcusH]

19 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Local media cold again and NWS missed the mark as well 

31F Central Houston (local media: 28F, NWS: 29F)

30F Uptown 

29F Katy (local media: 26F, NWS: 26F)

Same here.  Local media reporting 25f for downtown but that can't be right since I live on the NE side and it only got down to around 28f and this side is the coldest,  usually.  Probably 29/30 downtown.  

[MarcusH]

14 hours ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

This is how palms tend to look in Texas lol 

It's just some of them more Robusta leaning.  Everything else including all Phoenix palms looks pretty good , actually way better than my Robusta.  My neighbor's Robusta looks way better than mine.  My Queen palm is still alive .  No spear pull yet. 

[Chester B]

I looked at 4 different sources for the weather last night - 27, 27, 25 & 24.  I got down to 29F so that was pretty nice.  If I knew it was going to be that warm I would’ve uncovered everything days ago.  They really are bad with the temps here when it’s cold. Hot weather they’re fairly accurate but they seem to have a +/-5f  of error when it’s near or below freezing temps.  

[Ivanos1982]

3 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I looked at 4 different sources for the weather last night - 27, 27, 25 & 24.  I got down to 29F so that was pretty nice.  If I knew it was going to be that warm I would’ve uncovered everything days ago.  They really are bad with the temps here when it’s cold. Hot weather they’re fairly accurate but they seem to have a +/-5f  of error when it’s near or below freezing temps.  

you are correct, models, meteorologists and everyone I know is bad at low temperatures. They are so hard to predict here.

[MarcusH]

6 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I looked at 4 different sources for the weather last night - 27, 27, 25 & 24.  I got down to 29F so that was pretty nice.  If I knew it was going to be that warm I would’ve uncovered everything days ago.  They really are bad with the temps here when it’s cold. Hot weather they’re fairly accurate but they seem to have a +/-5f  of error when it’s near or below freezing temps.  

Better be save than sorry, nobody can't predict a 100 percent accurate forecast.  So far nothing concerning in the forecast for now . I uncovered my agaves this morning. I have to do a lot of trimming this week. Probably going to have at least 4 to 5 full trash cans by the end of the week. I also plan on trimming some tree branches back . We will be out of the woods in 3 weeks but the potential of a devastating cold front is still there.  

[kinzyjr]

It looks like you all sent those few extra degrees of cold here. 🤠

Either way, hope no more of these kinds of events.  That said, I've heard rumblings of more on the way.  We won't know until they get here for sure, though.  

[Robert Cade Ross]

15 hours ago, Chester B said:

So far in Houston they look good. I haven’t seen any damaged palms yet. My neighbors queens (protected) still have green fronds as well as their Livistona chinensis all look flawless. 

I noticed a few Chinese fans with some burn and a few robsutas but nothing terrible. Even the pigmy dates are somewhat okay around here. 

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

you are correct, models, meteorologists and everyone I know is bad at low temperatures. They are so hard to predict here.

A few years back, the Met Office had forecasted -3C / 26F or something for my area, so I didn't bother protecting anything. It ended up going down to something ridiculous like at least -7C / 19F. So the official forecast was off by about 4C / 7F. It wrecked havoc on a lot of my half-hardy palms and exotics.

Literally a year after that the Met had predicted a night of about -9C / 15F for me here, so I had frantically protected everything in the dark after work, spending hours up up ladders, wrapping stuff and dragging bits into the garage... only for it to not even drop below like -2C / 28F due to cloud cover.

I think the main thing is the cloud cover during winter. It can be hard to forecast the clouds sometimes, as you can have patchy cloud cover offering at least some protection against radiational cooling, or you can have total cloud cover, or no cloud cover at all. And often it is different to what is forecasted, which ultimately effects the extent of the nighttime lows.

If you have snow on the ground, having extensive cloud cover with it could be the difference between having a -1C / 30F nighttime minimum or a -9C / 15F nighttime low. After the airmass above, clouds are the biggest factor in how cold or warm it will get. 

[Chester B]

I’m from Canada and they seem to have no issues predicting cold temperatures.  So I don’t really buy the cloud/no cloud argument. 
 

Unfortunately the game we play a few degrees the wrong way can have severe consequences.  
 

I unwrapped all my palms.  I have damage to a couple of Phoenix but that is definitely heat damage from the protection.  The additional frost cloth covers I bought got delayed so I had to use BBQ covers and they don’t breathe very well.  When I took them off it was VERY hot inside from the sun.    Aside from that I have one “Sabal causiarum” that is badly damaged.  Everything else looks like nothing happened. 

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

A few years back, the Met Office had forecasted -3C / 26F or something for my area, so I didn't bother protecting anything. It ended up going down to something ridiculous like at least -7C / 19F. So the official forecast was off by about 4C / 7F. It wrecked havoc on a lot of my half-hardy palms and exotics.

Literally a year after that the Met had predicted a night of about -9C / 15F for me here, so I had frantically protected everything in the dark after work, spending hours up up ladders, wrapping stuff and dragging bits into the garage... only for it to not even drop below like -2C / 28F due to cloud cover.

I think the main thing is the cloud cover during winter. It can be hard to forecast the clouds sometimes, as you can have patchy cloud cover offering at least some protection against radiational cooling, or you can have total cloud cover, or no cloud cover at all. And often it is different to what is forecasted, which ultimately effects the extent of the nighttime lows.

If you have snow on the ground, having extensive cloud cover with it could be the difference between having a -1C / 30F nighttime minimum or a -9C / 15F nighttime low. After the airmass above, clouds are the biggest factor in how cold or warm it will get. 

The last few nights that ended up warmer than normal haven't been due to the clouds but severe underestimation of UHI and even suburban heat island on a calm, radiational cooling type night. 

Everywhere east and west of contiguous "Houston" was a full 5+ degrees colder this morning lol 

[UK_Palms]

32 minutes ago, Xenon said:

The last few nights that ended up warmer than normal haven't been due to the clouds but severe underestimation of UHI and even suburban heat island on a calm, radiational cooling type night. 

Everywhere east and west of contiguous "Houston" was a full 5+ degrees colder this morning lol 

The reason you didn't get as cold where you are had nothing to do with UHI or cloud cover.

The really cold airmass aloft (850 hPa) didn't fully penetrate your area or down into south Texas. The cut off point for the very cold air was further northwest of your location. Some models had it coming further south with a deeper freeze in Houston and down into south Texas. You guys lucked out a bit by the really cold air not getting in, and what did get in also got shunted away fairly quickly.

I think you maybe had -5C hPa 850 airmass overhead for a day or two. Whereas in Feb 2021 you had like -15C hPa 850 overhead in Houston for a few days at least (not sure on the exact figures). But that is a HUGE factor. It puts a massive ceiling on the cooling potential when the airmass above isn't particularly cold or supportive of very low temps. Not like how it was in north and central Texas earlier in the week. The weather models overestimated the depth of cold air getting into your area.

Two US models - FNMOC/NAVGEM and the CFS are absolutely abysmal. They overestimated the extent of the freeze in Texas and underestimated the extent of the freeze in Florida right now. The ECM (Euro) has the best verification rates but GFS (American), GEM (Canadian) and UKMET (UK) all have similar verification rates to the ECM. The only 4 det/OP models worth using. AIFS (Euro AI) is also one of the best now but not shown in the table. So 5 models worth using. But NAVGEM is really poor.

[MarcusH]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

The reason you didn't get as cold where you are had nothing to do with UHI or cloud cover.

The really cold airmass aloft (850 hPa) didn't fully penetrate your area or down into south Texas. The cut off point for the very cold air was further northwest of your location. Some models had it coming further south with a deeper freeze in Houston and down into south Texas. You guys lucked out a bit by the really cold air not getting in, and what did get in also got shunted away fairly quickly.

I think you maybe had -5C hPa 850 airmass overhead for a day or two. Whereas in Feb 2021 you had like -15C hPa 850 overhead in Houston for a few days at least (not sure on the exact figures). But that is a HUGE factor. It puts a massive ceiling on the cooling potential when the airmass above isn't particularly cold or supportive of very low temps. Not like how it was in north and central Texas earlier in the week. The weather models overestimated the depth of cold air getting into your area.

Two US models - FNMOC/NAVGEM and the CFS are absolutely abysmal. They overestimated the extent of the freeze in Texas and underestimated the extent of the freeze in Florida right now. The ECM (Euro) has the best verification rates but GFS (American), GEM (Canadian) and UKMET (UK) all have similar verification rates to the ECM. The only 4 det/OP models worth using. AIFS (Euro AI) is also one of the best now but not shown in the table. So 5 models worth using. But NAVGEM is really poor.

Hpa 850, navgem,det op models .....can you translate that for the average Joe please 😂. I'm just glad that my palms are doing fine.  

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

The reason you didn't get as cold where you are had nothing to do with UHI or cloud cover.

The really cold airmass aloft (850 hPa) didn't fully penetrate your area or down into south Texas. The cut off point for the very cold air was further northwest of your location. Some models had it coming further south with a deeper freeze in Houston and down into south Texas. You guys lucked out a bit by the really cold air not getting in, and what did get in also got shunted away fairly quickly.

I think you maybe had -5C hPa 850 airmass overhead for a day or two. Whereas in Feb 2021 you had like -15C hPa 850 overhead in Houston for a few days at least (not sure on the exact figures). But that is a HUGE factor. It puts a massive ceiling on the cooling potential when the airmass above isn't particularly cold or supportive of very low temps. Not like how it was in north and central Texas earlier in the week. The weather models overestimated the depth of cold air getting into your area.

Two US models - FNMOC/NAVGEM and the CFS are absolutely abysmal. They overestimated the extent of the freeze in Texas and underestimated the extent of the freeze in Florida right now. The ECM (Euro) has the best verification rates but GFS (American), GEM (Canadian) and UKMET (UK) all have similar verification rates to the ECM. The only 4 det/OP models worth using. AIFS (Euro AI) is also one of the best now but not shown in the table. So 5 models worth using. But NAVGEM is really poor.

I'm not referring to the "major event" that occured about 6-7 days ago that was advective in nature and heavily dependent on the trajectory of the air mass and cloud cover (and wintry precipitation which didn't happen). Only the last 3-4 nights which have all been pretty calm/light or windless with a high parked near us giving us "stable cold". The thing that hit Florida barely grazed us so again it's just more radiational freeze where UHI and water moderation to shine.

The advective event earlier pretty much negated UHI and heavily depressed water moderation. 

[Chester B]

3 hours ago, Xenon said:

I'm not referring to the "major event" that occured about 6-7 days ago that was advective in nature and heavily dependent on the trajectory of the air mass and cloud cover (and wintry precipitation which didn't happen). Only the last 3-4 nights which have all been pretty calm/light or windless with a high parked near us giving us "stable cold". The thing that hit Florida barely grazed us so again it's just more radiational freeze where UHI and water moderation to shine.

The advective event earlier pretty much negated UHI and heavily depressed water moderation. 

When you look at the temperature map in the middle of the night the UHI is very apparent. Fortunately I get help from it.  

[Xenon]

20 minutes ago, Chester B said:

When you look at the temperature map in the middle of the night the UHI is very apparent. Fortunately I get help from it.  

It's just not always a sure thing, you take it for granted until one day the real cold comes 😅. Even water is not a sure bet. Orlando hit 24F this morning, Merritt Island directly to the east surrounded by water hit 25F, and Cape Canaveral with even more water hit 26F. That's thousands and thousands of toasty coconuts and bronze mango groves. 

[Chester B]

10 hours ago, Xenon said:

It's just not always a sure thing, you take it for granted until one day the real cold comes 😅. Even water is not a sure bet. Orlando hit 24F this morning, Merritt Island directly to the east surrounded by water hit 25F, and Cape Canaveral with even more water hit 26F. That's thousands and thousands of toasty coconuts and bronze mango groves. 

Plus all the other millions of plants.  I read that someone was driving up I95 and every palm that wasn't a Sabal was already bronzed off.

[Xenon]

We got live ones under the covers! Unprotected Queens and bismarckia have some discoloration at the leaf tips if you look closely (the burn will show up later) 

Euterpe edulis lives to see another summer 

Cyphophoenix elegans 

Lychee new growth looks good to go

 

[Xenon]

Winter is over in Houston. Time to zonepush once more 😆

Can't say no to $4.50 each LOL

[Ivanos1982]

Just now, Xenon said:

Winter is over in Houston. Time to zonepush once more 😆

Can't say no to $4.50 each LOL

which hgc is this?

[Xenon]

10 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

which hgc is this?

I-10 E and BW8 between Jacinto City and Channelview 

[Fusca]

6 hours ago, Xenon said:

Winter is over in Houston. Time to zonepush once more 😆

Agreed.  😆  Plan on planting my Satakentia and Wallichia disticha this weekend.