TEXAS 2025

January 23

This is is why 90% of the garden has to be able to take the worst, on its own.

January 23

9 hours ago, Chester B said:

I think realistically here in Houston its zone 9A. This is my third winter and the last two I had 19F and am expecting the same this weekend, which technically is a 8B rating, but the zones are based on a 30 year average. Was 2022 or 2023 within a 9B Rating? I'm sure the next time the maps come out we'll be dropped half a zone.

What I have learned over the past few years is that the hardiness zone map is worth nothing at all. Plants don't care about average, it's always the ultimate lows that matter, along the type of cold and duration . For instance I look up the temperature history for the last 100 years . I know it's a long stretch but it allows me to see how many times the temperature dropped below the rated hardiness zone.

In the 1980s , San Antonio experienced at least one cold zone 7b winter. That’s 1.5 zone colder than our current zone. It happened and it will happen again.

I'm still in the learning process of growing palms and other plants and with our climate in Texas it's very tough to find the right plants unless you go all native. It's too hot , too dry and too cold in San Antonio.

In the last 5 years we only had 1 decent winter ( last year) where palms didn't defoliate for the most part. I know we're going to get nuked this time. I wouldn't be surprised if I lose a palm or two.

January 23

Us Floridians are all hoping for the best in Texas - we know how endlessly frustrating these polar fronts can be, especially when an island (UK) 1,500 more miles North than you has better weather. We're all extremely nervous about next week as well, with many consecutive days at or near freezing temps for C. Florida.

January 23

The "factual" media said not to make 2021 comparisons but this forecast just looks downright apocalyptic. I grew up here and finished college here without ever experiencing a temperature this cold until 2021. This is too soon 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

January 23

8 hours ago, Xenon said:

Are you sure you have Sabal causiarum and not domingensis? My causiarum has never really had a scratch, not even in the teens with snow etc. The guatemalensis next to it burns around 20F.

I bought two from a fellow Texas Palmtalker. They have had their's make it through winters north of Houston. One is bronzed the other is not. I have 3 domingensis all from different sources and they all look the same, the two causiarums look different being much larger, with larger fronds that have not yet gone palmate. Anything is possible, from having the wrong species to having a weak individual. I thought yours had proven hardy like you have stated.

January 23

7 hours ago, SeanK said:

This is is why 90% of the garden has to be able to take the worst, on its own.

... and a 90% reduction in anxiety.

January 23

I don't see the support for temps reaching 16F in Houston unless there's snow accumulation, which is quite unlikely.

As of mid day Friday, NWS is predicting 20 at Hobby.

GFS 12Z run gives 20 north of city, 25 south of city Mon morning, average 27 Tuesday morning.

Euro (ECMWF) shows mid 20s for greater Houston Mon and Tue morning.

HOWEVER, these models have a tendency to underplay the spread of shallow arctic air.

And, The 540 dam (decameter) isoline: the height difference between the 1000 mb and 500 mb pressure surfaces of 1000-5000 mb, is the rough determination of where rain and snow meet. It is a relationship between temperature above a certain altitudinal range and the moisture in the atmosphere. It also marks the typical limit of true polar air.

This isoline will be just north of Houston on Monday. If supported by surface dynamics, as it is now with a 1036-1040 mb high over the region, it will be very cold, well below freezing levels.

January 23

7 hours ago, MarcusH said:

What I have learned over the past few years is that the hardiness zone map is worth nothing at all. Plants don't care about average, it's always the ultimate lows that matter, along the type of cold and duration . For instance I look up the temperature history for the last 100 years . I know it's a long stretch but it allows me to see how many times the temperature dropped below the rated hardiness zone.

In the 1980s , San Antonio experienced at least one cold zone 7b winter. That’s 1.5 zone colder than our current zone. It happened and it will happen again.

I'm still in the learning process of growing palms and other plants and with our climate in Texas it's very tough to find the right plants unless you go all native. It's too hot , too dry and too cold in San Antonio.

In the last 5 years we only had 1 decent winter ( last year) where palms didn't defoliate for the most part. I know we're going to get nuked this time. I wouldn't be surprised if I lose a palm or two.

This is exactly what I do and how I feel about the hardiness zone map. I look at currentresults and extremeweatherwatch to see records of the lows. Then I can kind of get an idea about what to expect. What makes me upset is that in the past five years we have been getting zone 8b winters in Houston. I was hoping for at least ONE mild winter so that I can enjoy full growth over the summer. We also had a nasty drought in 2023 that ended my palms that survived the 2021 freeze. I just couldnt keep up with the watering when we had several days above 105 degrees and no rain at all for like three months. It was very extreme. My lawn was brown and crunchy that entire year, I even painted it green lol it was so ugly. Then hurricane Beryl came in and knocked down branches of my oaks and my queen palms. So it's been extreme. It's not just the zone numbers to grow palms in this area. There's a lot of other factors too. ANOTHER thing is the darn pests. I wanted to plant canariensis palms but that beetle has caused havoc on all palms in this area so that's a no. It's a challenge growing palms here.

January 23

On 1/22/2026 at 6:21 AM, UK_Palms said:

I don’t think anything has changed, climatically speaking, to allow the frequency of freezes to increase in recent years. I just think Texas in particular has been very unlucky since 2021. It is a bad run of luck that you guys are on currently. Whereas you had a run of extraordinary luck in the 30 years that proceeded the February 2021 event. I think it is just a case of having a run of good luck vs bad luck.

There is an argument that a strong AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is at least partly to blame for the Arctic blasts penetrating so deep into Texas, so frequently nowadays. The Atlantic is currently very active promoting mild westerlies into Europe as a result of a strong +AMO phase, which somewhat causes a blockage and backing up of cold air masses on your side of the Atlantic (eastern half of USA). When it switches to a negative -AMO (as it was in the 90’s and 2000’s) it will shut off some of the mild Atlantic imports into Europe and should cause more of that cold Arctic air to head over our way, instead of dropping down on your side, and certainly stop it being stuck/stalled over North America like it has been in recent years quite often. Some of this is theoretical though. A lot of ‘if, buts, and maybes’. 🤔

You make a very interesting point about the AMO phase. I was wondering what could be causing these 'leaks' of extreme cold coming from the north. I was thinking it was all Alaska's fault. It has been so warm there that it cuts the cold in half over Canada and then it just slides south. We are in a La Nina pattern now and most of the precipitation and wind is coming from the west to the east, and when it mixes with the cold coming in from the north, we are getting these snowmagedon events. Do you think there is a possibility that these AMO phase will turn negative in the coming years?

January 23

Actually, from what I heard, we have already moved out of La Nina and into ENSO neutral.

Alaska was very cold throughout December and early January, when the polar vortex was strong. Not so much now. The lack of sea ice particularly around eastern Russia and the Bering Sea and seems to be a predictable factor in enhancing an unstable, shifting polar vortex.

January 23

5 hours ago, Xenon said:

The "factual" media said not to make 2021 comparisons but this forecast just looks downright apocalyptic. I grew up here and finished college here without ever experiencing a temperature this cold until 2021. This is too soon 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

David Reimer predicts 15 to 17f for San Antonio. 15 means probably 14/13f in my area on the NE side . My yard is going to get nuked .

January 23

1 hour ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

Actually, from what I heard, we have already moved out of La Nina and into ENSO neutral.

Alaska was very cold throughout December and early January, when the polar vortex was strong. Not so much now. The lack of sea ice particularly around eastern Russia and the Bering Sea and seems to be a predictable factor in enhancing an unstable, shifting polar vortex.

And as the world is warming up we should see severe artic outbreaks almost every year now . I wonder how this changes our world of palms we live in. That's a lot of stress for our vegetation. Hot summers, droughts and freezing temperatures every year.

January 23

4 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

This is exactly what I do and how I feel about the hardiness zone map. I look at currentresults and extremeweatherwatch to see records of the lows. Then I can kind of get an idea about what to expect. What makes me upset is that in the past five years we have been getting zone 8b winters in Houston. I was hoping for at least ONE mild winter so that I can enjoy full growth over the summer. We also had a nasty drought in 2023 that ended my palms that survived the 2021 freeze. I just couldnt keep up with the watering when we had several days above 105 degrees and no rain at all for like three months. It was very extreme. My lawn was brown and crunchy that entire year, I even painted it green lol it was so ugly. Then hurricane Beryl came in and knocked down branches of my oaks and my queen palms. So it's been extreme. It's not just the zone numbers to grow palms in this area. There's a lot of other factors too. ANOTHER thing is the darn pests. I wanted to plant canariensis palms but that beetle has caused havoc on all palms in this area so that's a no. It's a challenge growing palms here.

This is 100% truth.

I got all my protections done. I feel a lot better. This is only my third winter but I have quickly learned that whatever temp they predict during these arctic outbreaks is going to be higher than actual values we'll see. All my palms have been planted this year and a few from the year before so they are not established. I have to take extra precautions. I'm a broken record on this forum saying that I just want an average winter.

January 23

Looks like low/mid-30's here in Brownsville, which sucks because I hate the cold but isn't going to damage anything I have if it warms up during the day. If we had like last year where it was 33F-38F for three straight days and then a dip to 28F one night, that made a couple things sad. My coconut will go unprotected but it's in a super sheltered spot so it should be fine. If we get a really bad frost - which I'm not expecting - my Chamaedora cataractarum will probably have some leaf burn. Up at the property in Laredo they're saying 27F-28F. Again, not terrible, but still a freeze.

January 23

17 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

Looks like low/mid-30's here in Brownsville, which sucks because I hate the cold but isn't going to damage anything I have if it warms up during the day. If we had like last year where it was 33F-38F for three straight days and then a dip to 28F one night, that made a couple things sad. My coconut will go unprotected but it's in a super sheltered spot so it should be fine. If we get a really bad frost - which I'm not expecting - my Chamaedora cataractarum will probably have some leaf burn. Up at the property in Laredo they're saying 27F-28F. Again, not terrible, but still a freeze.

I take your "30s" over mid 10s anytime my friend. We're going to get hit hard up here. Hard freeze for multiple days in my forecast. Let's see what's left after the party.

January 24

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

I take your "30s" over mid 10s anytime my friend. We're going to get hit hard up here. Hard freeze for multiple days in my forecast. Let's see what's left after the party.

I completely agree I'd take my weather over yours, but if Google is accurate at all you're still in a solid 9a winter:

image.png.ab3db367ea62050e3770c6bdb82c3887.png

January 24

8 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

This is exactly what I do and how I feel about the hardiness zone map. I look at currentresults and extremeweatherwatch to see records of the lows. Then I can kind of get an idea about what to expect. What makes me upset is that in the past five years we have been getting zone 8b winters in Houston. I was hoping for at least ONE mild winter so that I can enjoy full growth over the summer. We also had a nasty drought in 2023 that ended my palms that survived the 2021 freeze. I just couldnt keep up with the watering when we had several days above 105 degrees and no rain at all for like three months. It was very extreme. My lawn was brown and crunchy that entire year, I even painted it green lol it was so ugly. Then hurricane Beryl came in and knocked down branches of my oaks and my queen palms. So it's been extreme. It's not just the zone numbers to grow palms in this area. There's a lot of other factors too. ANOTHER thing is the darn pests. I wanted to plant canariensis palms but that beetle has caused havoc on all palms in this area so that's a no. It's a challenge growing palms here.

It sure is a challenge and I'm not really sure what the outlook for the next 20 years are. Vegetation just looks stressed . I'm not trying to be all negative I might be overreacting a little bit but I think we really need to keep an eye on how climate change impacts Texas's climate now and future.

January 24

1 hour ago, ahosey01 said:

I completely agree I'd take my weather over yours, but if Google is accurate at all you're still in a solid 9a winter:

I use NWS , AccuWeather and some local news. I know we get the most accurate temperature reading on the day the event occurs. But so far all of the weather sources I have mentioned before, predict temperature lows anywhere between 17f and 19f for my area where one YouTube weather guy aka David Reimer predicts even lower temperatures. When it comes to my yard there's a lot at stake.

January 24

That 18f forecast isn’t encouraging.

January 24

A little rise from 16F. I'll take any bump at this point 😂😭

January 24

5 hours ago, Xenon said:

A little rise from 16F. I'll take any bump at this point 😂😭

Is that forecast for Katy?

January 24

Does anyone protect their palm trees from the freezing rain?

Also, I wish everyone good luck in southern parts of USA🙏🙏🙏

January 24

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Is that forecast for Katy?

east Katy

January 24

34 minutes ago, coconut2024 said:

Does anyone protect their palm trees from the freezing rain?

Also, I wish everyone good luck in southern parts of USA🙏🙏🙏

Not from the cold just wrapped the spear on 2 of my Butias and covered my 2 Trachies with a plastic bag. I know it's not effective that much but since artic blasts are the new norm now I just say " whatever" . If they pull through , great if not I might just go all Sabal in the future.

January 24

48 minutes ago, Xenon said:

east Katy

Thanks, I think your home address may be a few degrees warmer but we'll see. I look forward to seeing how the various Houston microclimates hold up.

January 24

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks, I think your home address may be a few degrees warmer but we'll see. I look forward to seeing how the various Houston microclimates hold up.

Yep a little warmer but everything will be brown all the same 😅

January 24

LOL toasty Brownsville actually clocking in a heat index with its 70F dew point

January 24

27 minutes ago, Xenon said:

LOL toasty Brownsville actually clocking in a heat index with its 70F dew point

Yeah man I just walked down to the mailbox and it's real nice outside. Hard to imagine it feels like 38F just over in Laredo. Maybe the cold wave will just hop over us... hehe

January 24

23 hours ago, MarcusH said:

And as the world is warming up we should see severe artic outbreaks almost every year now . I wonder how this changes our world of palms we live in. That's a lot of stress for our vegetation. Hot summers, droughts and freezing temperatures every year.

I respectfully disagree that this is a conclusively-linked, modern aspect of climatological change. In the macro-view, this is just the cyclical nature of Texas winters.

2016-2026 vs. 1975-1985 in San Antonio:

image.png.2a3345bde8768a011b3ba35c88941b4f.png

2016-2026 vs. 1975-1985 in Brownsville:

image.png.a31016ea0a2f3fd19b58c942494f1288.png

And, perhaps the craziest one, 2015-2025 vs. 1979-1989 in Laredo (1982 missing):

image.png.890e3d06d92b39a4a687ddcdd815e702.png

This will probably go on for 10 years or so and then we'll get another 20-30 of mild winters, if the past is any indicator of the future.

January 24

7 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

I respectfully disagree that this is a conclusively-linked, modern aspect of climatological change. In the macro-view, this is just the cyclical nature of Texas winters.

2016-2026 vs. 1975-1985 in San Antonio:

2016-2026 vs. 1975-1985 in Brownsville:

And, perhaps the craziest one, 2015-2025 vs. 1979-1989 in Laredo (1982 missing):

This will probably go on for 10 years or so and then we'll get another 20-30 of mild winters, if the past is any indicator of the future.

I'm always saying that San Antonio isn't zone 9a it belongs in zone 8b with some winters going even lower to 8a7b.

Overall what I'm saying is that we aren't anywhere near the winters Texas has seen before 2021 and I don't have a crystal ball to predict future winters. The truth is that we see more weather extremes in both ways due to climate change. Climate is changing in Texas as well and not for the better. There were Queen palms growing in San Antonio for almost 20 years with some already died in the 2010s. Since 2021 it's impossible to keep them alive without proper protection. I'm not going to bet my money on warm winters. Not in this city at least.

January 24

Wish I got some daylight pics. This is before everything got mummified.

Crazy I haven't protected at all this winter and now the forecast is 15F🤦‍♂️

January 24

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

Wish I got some daylight pics. This is before everything got mummified.

Crazy I haven't protected at all this winter and now the forecast is 15F🤦‍♂️

I like the way it looks. Hopefully the damage will be tolerable. What weather app or website do you trust the most ?

January 24

1 minute ago, MarcusH said:

I like the way it looks. Hopefully the damage will be tolerable. What weather app or website do you trust the most ?

NWS even though they have the coldest forecast. Really hope they are wrong but they usually aren't.

January 25

@XenonEverything I’m seeing is low 20s with teens possible in areas north and west of the city. I doubt you’ll hit 15.

January 25

2 minutes ago, Chester B said:

@XenonEverything I’m seeing is low 20s with teens possible in areas north and west of the city. I doubt you’ll hit 15.

The various apps +/- track the major weather models from what I've seen. Local NWS is usually more accurate. I'd like them to be 5 degrees off too, hopefully in the warm direction 😅

January 25

20 minutes ago, Xenon said:

The various apps +/- track the major weather models from what I've seen. Local NWS is usually more accurate. I'd like them to be 5 degrees off too, hopefully in the warm direction 😅

I’ve found anytime time you are talking temps near or below freezing they can never get it right. Horrible record.

January 25

On 1/23/2026 at 3:41 AM, SeanK said:

This is is why 90% of the garden has to be able to take the worst, on its own.

But 90% of your yard needing protection is usually far more interesting. Atleast protection from the last few years, not an eventual average one. I drove into Pearland and spent about 4 hours protecting various palms and other species, some didn’t need it, but there’s a good chance all will survive another year . Sounds like a lot but less than most have spent staring at weather updates.

last summer

January 25

2 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I’ve found anytime time you are talking temps near or below freezing they can never get it right. Horrible record.

They've been right all winter for me. Not ever off by more than 1 degree. The point forecasts are also updated throughout the day.

They also adjusted accordingly during the 2021 freeze. And they haven't failed in the major freezes of the past few years either.

Are you using the point forecast feature?
Here's a random point near Lake Houston: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-95.175&lat=29.932

You can move the green square on the map to your exact location

January 25

22 minutes ago, Xenon said:

They've been right all winter for me. Not ever off by more than 1 degree. The point forecasts are also updated throughout the day.

They also adjusted accordingly during the 2021 freeze. And they haven't failed in the major freezes of the past few years either.

Are you using the point forecast feature?
Here's a random point near Lake Houston: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-95.175&lat=29.932

You can move the green square on the map to your exact location

I’ll look into that. NWS is saying 20 tomorrow night and 21 the following. We’ll see.

January 25

How things are looking here.

My large Grevillea (right) has the vegas lights. Large cat palms, some dwarf Heliconia, and everflowering bottlebrush are on the left - they needed a serious haircut to get them to fit this year. Kangaroo paws and small Grevillea behind the car also have lights. Mountain bottlebrush and narrow leaf bottlebrush aren't getting covered this year, just a little mulch.

Everything else gets mulch (or nothing).

Arenga sp. usually get buckets over them, but they have now outgrown that.

Cham. mircospadix. These seed grown ones are much more vigorous than a large one I bought. They just get mulch poured on them.

Cham. cataractum and Cham. radicalis seed. Figured I should actually save some. Only a fraction of what they set this year.

The large Heliconia just get mulch piled up around the base. There are three new flowers coming on x 'Coral Surprise' that I'm sad to lose.

I'm not wrapping any citrus this year either, only mulch.

WELCOME GUEST

TEXAS 2025

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