TEXAS 2025

[JeskiM]

Actually the next two weekends could be entertaining for those of us in TX and the gulf coast states.   

This coming weekend (1/25/2026) could potentially see :

A  :  Major cold snap, particularly CenTX and northward where it could be into the teens.  Some model members/runs have single digits for the DFW and Waco areas.

B  :  An Ice storm that could extend from Abilene, through DFW to Texarkana which then translates southward towards Austin.  Some model members/runs have it making as far south as Matagorda and eastward along the coast to Louisiana with a maximum glazing of 1.5 inches.

C : Heavy snows in North Central TX, possibly 5 inches in the DFW area.  I've seen one extreme model member/run showing 14 inches in one spot

Obviously some of the numbers pointed out are pretty extreme, and should be taken with a heavy pinch of salt attm.  But, it gives an idea of what * may * / could happen, so best to take it as an early warning to prepare, but not panic.

There may be a second precipitation event following it around Tuesday, albeit not near as intense, and it may not materialize anyways.

Then the following weekend (1/31/2016) there may be a second arctic airmass dropping south. This one could be colder and make it further south, possibly deep into Florida. I've seen one model / member run make it go below freezing south of Orlando.

How far south it could go will partly depend on how much frozen precip is laid down across the southern tier states from the first storm and manages to stay on the ground through the following week.  For example:  I've seen some model runs that put a heavy accumulation of snow/ice through Central TX that persists for several days keeping that immediate area from getting out of the 40s until after February 1st .... that's the mot extreme model run I could find for CenTX.  If that were to occur it would look like 2021 all over again.  I am not buying that possibility yet ... I still think the deepest cold will stay a bit NE of the TX area. (of course I've been know to be wrong before .   Waaay too many variables that will change over the next 7-10 days to put any certainty into this. 

Just beware that there is strong cold snap coming, and the models are showing some extremes both in temps and precip.  Details of spatial and temporal timings of conditions will change a lot over the next few days and this coming weekend's mess will not be more firm till around Thursday.  Best to be ready just in case.   I will likely be hauling potter plants back into the garage regardless.

- Matt

 

[RedRabbit]

Winter finally found us.

 

[Chester B]

If we have a couple nights in the upper 20s I'm totally fine with that, that is within the norms. It's when we get to low 20s or 19 like the last two years that I worry.

[RedRabbit]

Not getting any better.

 

[Chester B]

All the Apps are showing different things.  Yours is the worst of what I have been looking at.

This is from KHOU and it literally updated when I opened it.  I expect as usual its going to be all over the place the next few days and they'll get it wrong anyway.  

You ever notice how if they miss its always worse and not better?

[Ivanos1982]

It is a complete mess on how low the temperatures will get, AS USUAL. I don't understand why the models have such a hard time forecasting lows. One of the models has us at 8 degrees F in Houston on Monday morning. Other models at 43 F. It's crazy! Very stressful to have palms in Houston.

[UK_Palms]

8 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

It is a complete mess on how low the temperatures will get, AS USUAL. I don't understand why the models have such a hard time forecasting lows. One of the models has us at 8 degrees F in Houston on Monday morning. Other models at 43 F. It's crazy! Very stressful to have palms in Houston.

One big factor is snow/ice cover. If you don't have any snow, temperatures probably won't drop anywhere near as low. If you have a ton of snow, it will accelerate radiative cooling at night under clear skies due to the reflective properties of snow. It can be the difference between a 20F night or a 5F night. So all that snow and frozen precipitation will play a part in how cold it can get.

Obviously it is still yet to be clarified just how much cold air gets into Texas as well in terms of the intensity and duration. The proper extreme cold air may not even get in, or it may not stick around for long enough to manifest properly, in terms of extreme low temperatures. In Feb 2021 very cold air got all the way in and stuck around for a week or so. Anyway, there are lots of factors involved.

One of the 30 GFS ensemble members takes the nighttime minimum down to -5F for Dallas and about 10F in Houston. No doubt that scenario would be due to extensive snow cover, as well as very cold air getting in, both of which probably won't happen. I don't think Houston will get hit that bad at all looking at the models. Dallas however is a different story.

[Ivanos1982]

10 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

One big factor is snow/ice cover. If you don't have any snow, temperatures probably won't drop anywhere near as low. If you have a ton of snow, it will accelerate radiative cooling at night under clear skies due to the reflective properties of snow. It can be the difference between a 20F night or a 5F night. So all that snow and frozen precipitation will play a part in how cold it can get.

Obviously it is still yet to be clarified just how much cold air gets into Texas as well in terms of the intensity and duration. The proper extreme cold air may not even get in, or it may not stick around for long enough to manifest properly, in terms of extreme low temperatures. In Feb 2021 very cold air got all the way in and stuck around for a week or so. Anyway, there are lots of factors involved.

One of the 30 GFS ensemble members takes the nighttime minimum down to -5F for Dallas and about 10F in Houston. No doubt that scenario would be due to extensive snow cover, as well as very cold air getting in, both of which probably won't happen. I don't think Houston will get hit that bad at all looking at the models. Dallas however is a different story.

yeah I feel really bad for Dallas! and San Antonio. A friend of mine just bought property in San Antonio and planted a bunch of tropicals with the hopes that at least THIS winter wouldnt be as a bad. I'm over here crossing my fingers in Houston. I have already replaced so many palms. I'm stubborn. I replanted two queens this year that rotted last year winter. Two other ones who survived are now what someone here called "zombies". They made it through 18 F degrees in 2025 but didnt really grow.

[RedRabbit]

6 hours ago, Chester B said:

All the Apps are showing different things.  Yours is the worst of what I have been looking at.

This is from KHOU and it literally updated when I opened it.  I expect as usual its going to be all over the place the next few days and they'll get it wrong anyway.  

You ever notice how if they miss it’s always worse and not better?

I’ve been using weather.com with the understanding none of the models are perfect. Forecasts have risen a bit so maybe that 21f I posted earlier doesn’t verify.

[UK_Palms]

11 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I’ve been using weather.com with the understanding none of the models are perfect. Forecasts have risen a bit so maybe that 21f I posted earlier doesn’t verify.

The latest updates on the ECM (Euro) don't look anywhere near as bad. Maybe 24-25F for Houston and 15F for Dallas. So tentative signs that Texas will be spared somewhat this time around. I don't see the proper cold air getting in, or lasting long either.

Can't say the same for the mid-west and east coast. That William guy with the big Robusta/Filibusta in North Carolina will need to wrap it well as he's got 7-10 consecutive days/nights below freezing starting on Friday and probably 2-3 nights of 0-5F coming too.

[Ivanos1982]

7 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

The latest updates on the ECM (Euro) don't look anywhere near as bad. Maybe 24-25F for Houston and 15F for Dallas. So tentative signs that Texas will be spared somewhat this time around. I don't see the proper cold air getting in, or lasting long either.

Can't say the same for the mid-west and east coast. That William guy with the big Robusta/Filibusta in North Carolina will need to wrap it well as he's got 7-10 consecutive days/nights below freezing starting on Friday and probably 2-3 nights of 0-5F coming too.

they are now 21 in Houston... they just change and change and change. Total mess

[Xenon]

Bruh it's gonna be somewhere between 15 and 30 degrees Monday morning 😆🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️. 

Guess I'll try to mummify the tropicals tomorrow and hope the power doesn't go out in the impending icepocalypse. 

Everything zone 9 from queens to Bismarck and my citrus collection will just have to survive in the cold or die. FWIW, I had 2 out of 3 queens survive 19F and snow last year. They continue to grow normally. 

[Chester B]

I'm going to try and wrap and at least get the spears on most of my palms as they are small and unestablished.   You don't want ice in the spear.  I really only have the Bismarckia that is borderline and I've developed a love/hate thing for that palm.  I love it cause its awesome, but I hate it because I know its days are numbered.   I'm thinking I'll wrap the spear and if it dies, it dies. Last year I had damage to around 30/36 palms and most of them were hardy ones like Trachycarpus, Rhapidophyllum and Sabals, this is what concerns me.  The majority of my plants are zone 7 and 8 hardy but I've been down this path too many times, and know that even they are vulnerable

I Just need one winter with normal temps to try and get some size on things.  19F at my house that last two Januarys.  2 nights a year ruins the party, it's going to be 70s all this week and then that.  The fact that its going to rain, is just insult to injury considering how dry its been for the last 6 months.  Plus whatever temp they predict as the low will be higher than what we will actually see.  

[Meangreen94z]

10 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I'm going to try and wrap and at least get the spears on most of my palms as they are small and unestablished.   You don't want ice in the spear.  I really only have the Bismarckia that is borderline and I've developed a love/hate thing for that palm.  I love it cause its awesome, but I hate it because I know its days are numbered.   I'm thinking I'll wrap the spear and if it dies, it dies. Last year I had damage to around 30/36 palms and most of them were hardy ones like Trachycarpus, Rhapidophyllum and Sabals, this is what concerns me.  The majority of my plants are zone 7 and 8 hardy but I've been down this path too many times, and know that even they are vulnerable

I Just need one winter with normal temps to try and get some size on things.  19F at my house that last two Januarys.  2 nights a year ruins the party, it's going to be 70s all this week and then that.  The fact that it’s going to rain, is just insult to injury considering how dry it’s been for the last 6 months.  Plus whatever temp they predict as the low will be higher than what we will actually see.  

Or it could last another 10-15 years. Wrap the growth point in a heater cable. That will probably be enough for this storm 

[Xenon]

Bismarckia around here survived worse (knock on wood?) ice storms in 2011, 2014, and 2018. So I'm betting mine will survive. The crown is too big to cover now and I'd rather focus my efforts on the zone 10 plants. Might not be pretty though 

[Meangreen94z]

1 hour ago, Xenon said:

Bruh it's gonna be somewhere between 15 and 30 degrees Monday morning 😆🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️. 

Guess I'll try to mummify the tropicals tomorrow and hope the power doesn't go out in the impending icepocalypse. 

Everything zone 9 from queens to Bismarck and my citrus collection will just have to survive in the cold or die. FWIW, I had 2 out of 3 queens survive 19F and snow last year. They continue to grow normally. 

I think the initial snow pack and briefness helped alot with that storm.

[Ivanos1982]

I'm not even sure what Im going to do with my palms and tropicals at this point. The models are predicting ANOTHER cold front next week as well. I still have some covered plants from the last cold front here in Houston. Im thinking of just mulching the crp out of all the plants and just let nature do its thing. What sucks is waiting for everything to green up again after these satanic cold fronts. It takes months for everything to bounce back to its full glory. This is why Im not sure Houston is a palm/tropical city anymore. The past six years have been brutal. Very few folks are still stubborn to their palms. Unless they are sabals or natives, or the trachys. I still have about six radicalis seedlings that are puny right now. Maybe they are my only hope.

[Chester B]

The majority of my palms are Sabals, Butia and Butia hybrids with some , Washingtonia, Trachys and needles as well.  They should all be hardy but I have little faith, considering how puny they are.

The first 5 years I grew palms in ground starting in 2016 the winters were cooperative.  2021 and forward has been a total S-Show

[Xenon]

7 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

I'm not even sure what Im going to do with my palms and tropicals at this point. The models are predicting ANOTHER cold front next week as well. I still have some covered plants from the last cold front here in Houston. Im thinking of just mulching the crp out of all the plants and just let nature do its thing. What sucks is waiting for everything to green up again after these satanic cold fronts. It takes months for everything to bounce back to its full glory. This is why Im not sure Houston is a palm/tropical city anymore. The past six years have been brutal. Very few folks are still stubborn to their palms. Unless they are sabals or natives, or the trachys. I still have about six radicalis seedlings that are puny right now. Maybe they are my only hope.

I haven't covered anything all winter. My plumerias are still in the ground with green leaves LOL.  Let's survive the next 5 days first before worrying about the next cold front. I'm really worried about my crownshaft palms and tropical fruit trees if the power goes out and if I have enough wrapping supplies 😅

On a positive note, the end of winter is just 30 days away 😊

[Xenon]

Our time will come guys...imagine if you moved to Houston in the early-mid 90s and basked in the glory of a nearly twenty year span of solid 9b sometimes wondering if it was slipping into zone 10 😀.

Parts of Florida and the South Atlantic are enjoying that at the moment, with some of the warmest strings of winters ever in modern history. 

I find it hard to believe we'll be left out indefinitely because reasons lol 

[Meangreen94z]

I’m going to try and make a trip into Pearland Saturday morning to protect those palms again. It will be worth it next summer. 

[Robert Cade Ross]

Letting the cold take out  my two Bismarck palms over in Alvin . I have two blue Sabal uresana they can be replaced with in the spring. And a bunch of baby seedling Bismarckia if I’m feeling adventurous again. 

[Xenon]

4 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

Letting the cold take out  my two Bismarck palms over in Alvin . I have two blue Sabal uresana they can be replaced with in the spring. And a bunch of baby seedling Bismarckia if I’m feeling adventurous again. 

 

 

Not looking like bizzie killer 

[Meangreen94z]

They will probably survive anyway, but seems like a big waste to not spend 20 minutes and a couple tarps to protect them. It will take 10 years for the blue uresana to get to that size

[RedRabbit]

[Fusca]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

Not looking like bizzie killer 

I agree - those temps shouldn't kill Bismarckia.  As long as they're not combined with lots of rain on Saturday especially if they're in clay.  Light rain and no previous irrigation this past week should be OK with those temps.

[kinzyjr]

Hope the best for everyone involved.  Because of the wide array of forecast models, everyone east of the Rockies is wondering how much of their garden will still be standing come March.  We could get anything from 23F-37F in inland Central FL.

🍹 May the Jetstream be forever in our collective favor.

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Hope the best for everyone involved.  Because of the wide array of forecast models, everyone east of the Rockies is wondering how much of their garden will still be standing come March.  We could get anything from 23F-37F in inland Central FL.

🍹 May the Jetstream be forever in our collective favor.

It’s interesting that up until now our winter in Houston hasn’t been much different from Tampa’s. It’s just Texas seems to be very vulnerable to these major freeze events that always seem to weaken (or don’t even make it) before getting to Florida.

Not sure if you e been to Texas but Galveston is basically our AMI that has an incredible microclimate. Even still, you struggle to find even queen palms.

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

It’s interesting that up until now our winter in Houston hasn’t been much different from Tampa’s. It’s just Texas seems to be very vulnerable to these major freeze events that always seem to weaken (or don’t even make it) before getting to Florida.

Not sure if you e been to Texas but Galveston is basically our AMI that has an incredible microclimate. Even still, you struggle to find even queen palms.

I haven't been to Galveston, but you can see quite a difference from mainland TX to Galveston on a typical night.  We just need a mountain range connecting the Rockies to the Appalachians, similar to the Himalayas.  Then we'll be in decent shape across the board. 

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

It’s interesting that up until now our winter in Houston hasn’t been much different from Tampa’s. It’s just Texas seems to be very vulnerable to these major freeze events that always seem to weaken (or don’t even make it) before getting to Florida.

Not sure if you e been to Texas but Galveston is basically our AMI that has an incredible microclimate. Even still, you struggle to find even queen palms.

Galveston went from pre-2000 royal palms and queen palm jungle to Myrtle Beach literally overnight after February 2021. It's depressing to think about it 😭. A Cook/Norfolk pine once ubiquitous on the island held the state "official" title for tallest of its kind for many years. The Galveston in my mind and memory (I'm almost embarrassed by the amount of Galveston threads I've made) is still the 13 years in a row zone 10 Galveston 😝.

I never paid attention or thought twice about the common queen palm in Houston...until 2021 attacked and put 30 years of growth down the drain. The past six years have just been a brutal nightmare, the angling of all the cold outbreaks just has a curse for this area. 

It's not a consistent thing because the prior 30 years to 2021 were not like this. I'll keep repeating that to myself when planting more palms haha 

[UK_Palms]

9 hours ago, Xenon said:

Galveston went from pre-2000 royal palms and queen palm jungle to Myrtle Beach literally overnight after February 2021. It's depressing to think about it 😭. A Cook/Norfolk pine once ubiquitous on the island held the state "official" title for tallest of its kind for many years. The Galveston in my mind and memory (I'm almost embarrassed by the amount of Galveston threads I've made) is still the 13 years in a row zone 10 Galveston 😝.

I never paid attention or thought twice about the common queen palm in Houston...until 2021 attacked and put 30 years of growth down the drain. The past six years have just been a brutal nightmare, the angling of all the cold outbreaks just has a curse for this area. 

It's not a consistent thing because the prior 30 years to 2021 were not like this. I'll keep repeating that to myself when planting more palms haha 

I don’t think anything has changed, climatically speaking, to allow the frequency of freezes to increase in recent years. I just think Texas in particular has been very unlucky since 2021. It is a bad run of luck that you guys are on currently. Whereas you had a run of extraordinary luck in the 30 years that proceeded the February 2021 event. I think it is just a case of having a run of good luck vs bad luck.

There is an argument that a strong AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is at least partly to blame for the Arctic blasts penetrating so deep into Texas, so frequently nowadays. The Atlantic is currently very active promoting mild westerlies into Europe as a result of a strong +AMO phase, which somewhat causes a blockage and backing up of cold air masses on your side of the Atlantic (eastern half of USA). When it switches to a negative -AMO (as it was in the 90’s and 2000’s) it will shut off some of the mild Atlantic imports into Europe and should cause more of that cold Arctic air to head over our way, instead of dropping down on your side, and certainly stop it being stuck/stalled over North America like it has been in recent years quite often. Some of this is theoretical though. A lot of ‘if, buts, and maybes’. 🤔

[Xenon]

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I don’t think anything has changed, climatically speaking, to allow the frequency of freezes to increase in recent years. I just think Texas in particular has been very unlucky since 2021. It is a bad run of luck that you guys are on currently. Whereas you had a run of extraordinary luck in the 30 years that proceeded the February 2021 event. I think it is just a case of having a run of good luck vs bad luck.

There is an argument that a strong AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is at least partly to blame for the Arctic blasts penetrating so deep into Texas, so frequently nowadays. The Atlantic is currently very active promoting mild westerlies into Europe as a result of a strong +AMO phase, which somewhat causes a blockage and backing up of cold air masses on your side of the Atlantic (eastern half of USA). When it switches to a negative -AMO (as it was in the 90’s and 2000’s) it will shut off some of the mild Atlantic imports into Europe and should cause more of that cold Arctic air to head over our way, instead of dropping down on your side, and certainly stop it being stuck/stalled over North America like it has been in recent years quite often. Some of this is theoretical though. A lot of ‘if, buts, and maybes’. 🤔

Yep it's ridiculous. My suburb squeaked by into zone 9b in the latest USDA hardiness zone map (1991-2020 data set) yet somehow 4 out of the last 5 winters end up zone 8b....and we're now on track for 19F or 20F Monday 🤦‍♂️.

I'm not delusional to expect a warm winter ever year but the constant back to back 5+ degree negative departure from average is tiring so we're gonna complain about it on the Internet  😆

[HudsonBill]

Gona be funny when the new hardiness maps drop everyone a zone. 

[RedRabbit]

4 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

Gona be funny when the new hardiness maps drop everyone a zone. 

It’s our baseline expectation. I live in “9b”, but it looks consistent with 8b in Florida. Odds are I’ll be under 20f again on Monday.

[Chester B]

I think realistically here in Houston its zone 9A.  This is my third winter and the last two I had 19F and am expecting the same this weekend, which technically is a 8B rating, but the zones are based on a 30 year average.  Was 2022 or 2023 within a 9B Rating?  I'm sure the next time the maps come out we'll be dropped half a zone.

 

[Chester B]

When temperatures go below freezing I default to Celsius to understand what the temperature is like.  @MarcusH can back me up on this.

[Xenon]

2 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I think realistically here in Houston its zone 9A.  This is my third winter and the last two I had 19F and am expecting the same this weekend, which technically is a 8B rating, but the zones are based on a 30 year average.  Was 2022 or 2023 within a 9B Rating?  I'm sure the next time the maps come out we'll be dropped half a zone.

 

2021-2022 was the last barely 9b winter, everything else post 2021 8b/low 9a, 2019-2020 and 2018-2019 were zone 10.

6 out of the last 15 winters have been zone 10 at Hobby and >=28F at IAH. 

IAH from 1997-2009: zero 8b winters, 2 9a winters, everything else 9b or 10

Hobby recorded only 9b/10 winters for the same time period. 

So the potential for warmth is still there. We're just succumbing to recency bias. 

Even with all of the recent cold winters, the standing 30 year averages at IAH and Hobby are ~25F and ~27F. It would take several more zone 8 winters with an absence of anything 9b+ which seems unlikely. But anything can happen I guess. 

 

[Chester B]

3 minutes ago, Xenon said:

2021-2022 was the last barely 9b winter, everything else post 2021 8b/low 9a, 2019-2020 and 2018-2019 were zone 10.

6 out of the last 15 winters have been zone 10 at Hobby and >=28F at IAH. 

IAH from 1997-2009: zero 8b winters, 2 9a winters, everything else 9b or 10

Hobby recorded only 9b/10 winters for the same time period. 

So the potential for warmth is still there. We're just succumbing to recency bias. 

Even with all of the recent cold winters, the standing 30 year averages at IAH and Hobby are ~25F and ~27F. It would take several more zone 8 winters with an absence of anything 9b+ which seems unlikely. But anything can happen I guess. 

 

I think we're going to likely get to 19 or 20 unless the models back off tomorrow.  I covered small palms with frost cloth and buckets tonight.  And have a plan for each palm with large plant bags and frost cloth for the rest.  The one night we had at 28/29 last week has bronzed off one of my Sabal causiarum, not totally but i see some bronzing on the spear too, so I'm not thrilled by that.  Too warm/hot weather and then a cold shot is too much.  I even had a magnolia take damage already.

Right now I'm trying to decide if I want to wait until Sunday to protect once its dry and sunny ahead of the real cold.

[Xenon]

6 hours ago, Chester B said:

I think we're going to likely get to 19 or 20 unless the models back off tomorrow.  I covered small palms with frost cloth and buckets tonight.  And have a plan for each palm with large plant bags and frost cloth for the rest.  The one night we had at 28/29 last week has bronzed off one of my Sabal causiarum, not totally but i see some bronzing on the spear too, so I'm not thrilled by that.  Too warm/hot weather and then a cold shot is too much.  I even had a magnolia take damage already.

Right now I'm trying to decide if I want to wait until Sunday to protect once its dry and sunny ahead of the real cold.

Are you sure you have Sabal causiarum and not domingensis? My causiarum has never really had a scratch, not even in the teens with snow etc. The guatemalensis next to it burns around 20F. 

[Xenon]

I tried guys, waited for the Houston traffic to quiet down a bit past seven to get to Katy and didn't finish prep till close to 1 am 🫠. 

I want my zone 10 bubble to survive another season. Only 4 strings of mini lights (old so many 20% of the bulbs are duds lol) + mylar + fabric + plastic. 5 gallon bucket next to the Cyphophoenix elegans. Really hoping for some warmer winters where I can rely just on the canopy...

And the mango. It's toast if the power goes out 😭. Now almost 5 years from seed and nearing flowering age. 

Everything zone 9 left to fend for itself