Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[MarcusH]

If it wouldn't be for my palms I would admit I do enjoy snowy winters.  Thank God I'm off from work today and tomorrow.  Went to get some tacos this morning, I honestly didn't enjoy the ice cold wind blowing in my face.  In Germany ,it just gets cold slowly over the weeks and months, enough time for nature and human beings to get used to it. Mostly we have seen lows in the single digits. Papitas ! OVER here in Texas, the wind is what's killing me and the temperature swings are far worse than my wife's mood swings. Can't get used to anything.  

Usually at this time of the year I would begin feeding my palms with some delicious NPK fertilizer and also increase my watering.  Not this year. I'll wait at least 2 more weeks until I see a stronger high pressure system settling over Texas.  We aren't out of the woods yet. 

[MarcusH]

11 minutes ago, Mazat said:

ja, klar. du hast einen guten humor, Marcus. 😊und deine direkte art schätze ich.

best regards vom schwäbischen meer swiss side 

Tom

Thank you I appreciate it. I've seen parts of Switzerland.  My father in law is from Leinbach Schweitz.  

[UK_Palms]

The most centrally located PWS in Dallas is still -9C / 15F at lunchtime. Like WTF. Cloud cover preventing solar recovery. ☠️

Thats the CIDP’s and even Washingtonia Filifera completely defoliated given the snow and wet-cold. I can see it going down to -12C / 10F tonight. Potentially even single digits F in some areas. Dew points look ridiculous. 

[Xenon]

I fertilized yesterday before all of the rain. Great growing weather next week. 

It's noon and hovering at freezing, looks like +/- the same for the next 18 hours sigh.

Not happy about my current massive citrus flush. If we can manage to not dip below 27-28F for more than 2 hours, should be ok. 

[Chester B]

I was at 33F this morning and the forecasted low was 41F.  I'm sorry, but how do you miss out on that the day before.

Potted plants to be moved into the garage this afternoon just in case for the next 2 days.

Next week I'll begin planting. 

[UK_Palms]

3 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I was at 33F this morning and the forecasted low was 41F.  I'm sorry, but how do you miss out on that the day before.

Potted plants to be moved into the garage this afternoon just in case for the next 2 days.

Next week I'll begin planting. 

 

Some of the weather models and their ensembles signalled this 10 days ago. Some of the runs were very cold like the German ICON and the ECMWF at times, while others were much warmer like the GFS and it's GEFS suite. It was never going to be as cold as some of the runs were showing, or as warm as some of them had. Reality always ends up being somewhere in-between the warmest and coldest outcomes, which is why the ensemble mean being signalled should be used. Both the GFS and ECM ensemble means were somewhat accurate, unlike their actual det/OP runs. Both the GFS and ECM ensemble suites should be taken into account, not the main OP runs. That's how you get caught out.

Whereas the news outlets and weather centres probably ran with the American GFS det/OP for guidance. Big mistake. Even the GEFS ensembles indicated this. I think the GFS det/OP had about 20-21F as the low in Dallas but the ensemble mean was 15F, which was the actual outcome and fairly accurate. A similar thing happened here recently where the ECMWF det/OP had it getting very cold and people expected some proper cold to hit, including the news outlets and weather centres, but the ECM ensemble mean said otherwise, hence why it never happened. A similar thing happened in Feb 2021 for you guys, with ensembles showing the extent of cold, which the main det/OP runs did not properly pick up on. Then everyone was shocked how it was much colder than forecast. Despite the signal clearly being there in the ensembles.

The German ICON actually had the most accurate ensemble suite for temperatures in the run up...

[Xenon]

Well the silver lining is that the clouds are now predicted to not go anywhere through the night so it shouldn't drop that much. Local NWS still seems confident with the low temp forecast. 

The ground is still fairly warm, coupled with the heavy clouds 

 

[UK_Palms]

13 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Well the silver lining is that the clouds are now predicted to not go anywhere through the night so it shouldn't drop that much. Local NWS still seems confident with the low temp forecast. 

Nothing worse than when it is cloudy all day long preventing any kind of solar heating/recovery, only for the skies to then clear straight after sunset allowing maximum radiational cooling overnight. I have had that happen here all too many times in winter, although the airmass is rarely cold enough to do much damage. But it is still annoying how often it pans out that way, unlike the opposite scenario - having clear skies during the day for maximum recovery and then clouds at night to minimise cooling.

[Xenon]

Hard freeze needs to stay away

[ahosey01]

2 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Hard freeze needs to stay away

We might dip into the mid-30s tonight all the way down here.  Wild. lol

[Chester B]

I woke up to 33 it went up to 34 and now I'm at 30F already.  I sure hope it holds, it feels like the wind has calmed down and its still overcast.

[UK_Palms]

14 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I woke up to 33 it went up to 34 and now I'm at 30F already.  I sure hope it holds, it feels like the wind has calmed down and its still overcast.

The wind is your friend during these events, despite the windchill. What you don't want is clear skies and no wind, which is a bad combo. It means the surface air can radiate straight upwards into the atmosphere with no resistance, accentuating any cooling. When it is actually windy, it keeps the air moving along sideways at the surface and minimises the extent of radiative cooling upwards, even under clear skies. So in the event that the skies did clear for you, you want that wind there.

[ahosey01]

3 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

The wind is your friend during these events, despite the windchill. What you don't want is clear skies and no wind, which is a bad combo. It means the surface air can radiate straight upwards into the atmosphere with no resistance, accentuating any cooling. When it is actually windy, it keeps the air moving along sideways at the surface and minimises the extent of radiative cooling upwards, even under clear skies. So in the event that the skies did clear for you, you want that wind there.

Harsher on the north-facing bark on your tropical trees though lol

[palmnut-fry]

@UK_Palms good point and clearing skies up here in NE Tex is tonight and the low is 12 or 13°F predicted. We will have been below freezing over 60 hours after all is said and done Friday, which is another dismal reality after we dodged last month's deep freeze pretty well. 

Just read an article said this is  NOT due to the polar vortex like so many are saying! I don't care what they call it, these deep prolonged freezes are causing much damage 5th winter in a row. I cannot remember a longer lasting cold and i am almost 60 and grew up in the region.  I wonder if my other Trachy (original tall one i had since '88) will make it or join her sister that perished in '21. Pray for her, y'all as i did not  protect...

[Xenon]

Currently 28F in west Houston...same temperature as 3 hours ago. Still heavy cloud cover for now 🤞

[Chester B]

29 here and only 33 in Galveston. 

[Chester B]

So far the Arctic Tundra of Alvin is staying warm. 

[ahosey01]

Bottomed out at 34F here, but only for about an hour.  Was 35F-37F almost all night.  At least when I went to bed and when I woke up to pee and when I woke up to my alarm.

[Xenon]

25F at sunrise in weat Houston/Katy. NWS nailed it by late afternoon yesterday. Glad it's a lot warmer than local media that called for 20-22F. 

Looks like parts of the urban core and southeast Houston narrowly escaped a hard freeze. It's "only" 28F at Hobby. 

Somehow only 28-29F in arctic Alvin 😝 @Robert Cade Ross

[MarcusH]

It got down to 21f on the NE side of San Antonio.  Light breeze , mostly cloudy . 

Ready for the next artic blast since winter ends on March 20th and freezes are still possible for the southern part of Texas.  

[Chester B]

I got down to 28F so was one of the warmer areas, the last pic is my location. The lake gave me a 2 degree bump. Galveston was cold and parts of the island were below freezing. The west side including Katy was the coldest at 25f. 

[PAPalmtrees]

22 hours ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

It’s sooo cold 😒

6f in Brownsville? that can't be right is it in celsius?

[Robert Cade Ross]

4 hours ago, Xenon said:

25F at sunrise in weat Houston/Katy. NWS nailed it by late afternoon yesterday. Glad it's a lot warmer than local media that called for 20-22F. 

Looks like parts of the urban core and southeast Houston narrowly escaped a hard freeze. It's "only" 28F at Hobby. 

Somehow only 28-29F in arctic Alvin 😝 @Robert Cade Ross

Saw 28 at my house in Manvel I’ll gladly take that over 17.7° last month 😉

[Robert Cade Ross]

1 hour ago, PaPalmTrees said:

6f in Brownsville? that can't be right is it in celsius?

Celsius 😆 

[PAPalmtrees]

3 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

Celsius 😆 

All right that's what I thought 6 Celsius isn't that bad But cold for down there

[Mazat]

22 hours ago, Chester B said:

Ich hatte heute Morgen 0 °C und die vorhergesagte Tiefsttemperatur lag bei 5 °C. Es tut mir leid, aber wie kann man das am Tag davor übersehen?

Topfpflanzen müssen heute Nachmittag vorsichtshalber für die nächsten zwei Tage in die Garage gestellt werden.

Nächste Woche werde ich mit dem Pflanzen beginnen. 

this is really a very big difference and it should be emphasized that it should not happen, since it is a short-term forecast, but the whole thing is constantly changing with so many influences that it is simply no longer correct. but it has also annoyed me ... 

[Mazat]

On 19.2.2025 at 19:08, MarcusH said:

Vielen Dank, das weiß ich zu schätzen. Ich habe Teile der Schweiz gesehen. Mein Schwiegervater stammt aus Leinbach Schweitz.  

unglaublich wie klein die schweiz ist, innert knapp unter 2 h von mir aus bin ich dort mit dem auto. in rund 3,5 h im südtessin. 

[amh]

On 2/19/2025 at 11:19 AM, Mazat said:

very interesting. a colleague who lives right by the lake only does it this way, he says even fit-looking smaller and larger citrus plants, cheaper and more expensive trees are usually much less hardy and cold-tolerant than plants grown from seed.

I've become a fan of seed grown fruits, they are usually very hardy, and with rare exceptions, the fruit will be as good as the parent plant. 

[amh]

I was somewhere between 16F and 17F this morning after being 19F yesterday.

Freezing rain is in my forecast for Friday night and Saturday. 

[David Palm]

Pray that last night was the worst of it for this season. I'm just north of San Antonio (Cibolo) and saw 21 degrees with lots of wind. Forecasts indicate that tonight should be in the upper 20s or even as high as 31. Longer term forecast looks very good for our palms with 70s in the not-too-distant future. My younger Washy Filifera, Mediterraneans, Pindo and Minors seem to have handled last night's hard freeze quite well unprotected. Won't know for sure until the next week or so but definitely looks promising. 

Good luck to everyone.   🫡

[Robert Cade Ross]

41 minutes ago, David Palm said:

Pray that last night was the worst of it for this season. I'm just north of San Antonio (Cibolo) and saw 21 degrees with lots of wind. Forecasts indicate that tonight should be in the upper 20s or even as high as 31. Longer term forecast looks very good for our palms with 70s in the not-too-distant future. My younger Washy Filifera, Mediterraneans, Pindo and Minors seem to have handled last night's hard freeze quite well unprotected. Won't know for sure until the next week or so but definitely looks promising. 

Good luck to everyone.   🫡

Congratulations on jinxing us for another hard freeze march 1st 😉😉

[David Palm]

1 hour ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

Congratulations on jinxing us for another hard freeze march 1st 😉😉

LOL. The 14 day looks sweet and has that AI goodness backed into it. Rest easy. 😅

[kristof p]

well it looks like the worst of winter is over up here in coastal Belgium. In terms of low temperatures it was not a bad one with a minimum of -2.8°C for a short time but the average high temperatures where a lot beneath the normal. December was above average though. 16°C today  

[UK_Palms]

I speak to a guy from Dallas on Twitter/X who is in a weather group chat with me and he recorded minimums of 12F and 10F on the 19th and 20th. There is another guy in Fort Worth who has 2 Washingtonia and he went down to 9F.

I wonder whether those CIDP and Washingtonia will keep coming back after multiple defoliations. I’m sure that Tony Cerbone guy will post about it on social media in the coming days.
 

[PAPalmtrees]

Well we're gonna have a warm up on the way and the weather's gonna be enjoyable ish outside yay.

[Robert Cade Ross]

34.5°F This morning in Manvel better than 32° that was forecasted …

[Xenon]

Same, low was only 34F this morning. Way above the 30F NWS forecast and 29F local media forecast 

[Tropicdoc]

Just to show the speed of the b x pjc 

There is was basically no green left 1 month ago after record snowfall……

[Robbertico18]

36 minutes ago, Tropicdoc said:

Just to show the speed of the b x pjc 

There is was basically no green left 1 month ago after record snowfall……

Wow!

that’s awesome, I’m glad it’s bouncing back already!

[Subtropical LIS]

On 2/22/2025 at 5:22 PM, Tropicdoc said:

Just to show the speed of the b x pjc 

There is was basically no green left 1 month ago after record snowfall……

That's amazing growth in that time span - but not surprising. I think we forget in the southern United States with the heat, sun angle, and ample precip the speed at which things grow. 

I was checking low temps in the New Orleans/Houma area...and only 4 days this Feb had lows below 60 F . We take that for granted. In some cities however, the highs struggle to reach 60 F in winter (the other day NYC hit 60 F for the first time this year)....and cities like London or Paris on average will not see  their first 60 F high until April - lol.

Heat, rainfall, and sun....it can do amazing things.