Tampa, FL vs Brownsville, TX Long-Term

[ahosey01]

Was doing a little research and thought it would be interesting to compare Tampa, FL to Brownsville, TX by decade in terms of absolute minimums, since this generally determines the kind of palms we can grow.

What I found surprised me - in the years for which data for both Brownsville Airport and Tampa Airport exist, Brownsville averages 1.39F warmer in terms of absolute minimums in any given year.

The 1960s were a fairly even split, with Tampa being warmer the first half of the decade and Brownsville being warmer the second half:

Tampa			Brownsville			Comparison
Year	Minimum	20-Year Average	Year	Minimum	20-Year Average	Warmer City	Difference
1960	30	32.35	1960	29	30.67	Tampa	1.68
1961	31	32	1961	34	31.10	Tampa	0.90
1962	18	31.35	1962	19	30.86	Tampa	0.49
1963	31	31.35	1963	26	30.57	Tampa	0.78
1964	27	31.05	1964	32	30.48	Tampa	0.57
1965	29	30.7	1965	36	30.71	Brownsville	0.01
1966	24	29.85	1966	30	30.38	Brownsville	0.53
1967	27	29.6	1967	33	30.62	Brownsville	1.02
1968	27	29.6	1968	32	30.71	Brownsville	1.11
1969	32	29.3	1969	33	30.95	Brownsville	1.65

 

From there,  for the next 5 decades, Brownsville averaged 2.05F warmer in terms of minimum lows every year than Tampa:

Tampa			Brownsville			Comparison
Year	Minimum	20-Year Average	Year	Minimum	20-Year Average	Warmer City	Difference
1970	23	28.9	1970	30	31.29	Brownsville	2.39
1971	23	28.5
1972	34	28.45	1972	34	31.52	Brownsville	3.07
1973	30	28.15	1973	26	31.71	Brownsville	3.56
1974	30	27.9	1974	35	31.62	Brownsville	3.72
1975	30	27.85	1975	24	31.24	Brownsville	3.39
1976	28	27.65	1976	29	30.95	Brownsville	3.30
1977	26	27.65	1977	30	30.71	Brownsville	3.06
1978	29	27.9	1978	31	30.57	Brownsville	2.67
1979	28	27.85	1979	26	30.24	Brownsville	2.39
1980	29	27.8	1980	32	30.10	Brownsville	2.30
1981	22	27.35	1981	36	30.33	Brownsville	2.98
1982	24	27.65	1982	25	30.14	Brownsville	2.49
1983	19	27.05	1983	20	29.48	Brownsville	2.43
1984	26	27	1984	35	30.24	Brownsville	3.24
1985	21	26.6	1985	28	30.33	Brownsville	3.73
1986	26	26.7	1986	36	30.52	Brownsville	3.82
1987	33	27	1987	34	30.43	Brownsville	3.43
1988	33	27.3	1988	35	30.67	Brownsville	3.37
1989	24	26.9	1989	16	29.86	Brownsville	2.96
1990	40	27.75	1990	29	29.71	Brownsville	1.96
1991	33	28.25	1991	39	30.00	Brownsville	1.75
1992	36	28.35	1992	34	30.19	Brownsville	1.84
1993	35	28.6	1993	31	30.05	Brownsville	1.45
1994	35	28.85	1994	38	30.62	Brownsville	1.77
1995	28	28.75	1995	40	30.86	Brownsville	2.11
1996	25	28.6	1996	29	31.10	Brownsville	2.50
1997	31	28.85	1997	30	31.14	Brownsville	2.29
1998	39	29.35	1998	34	31.33	Brownsville	1.98
1999	30	29.45	1999	36	31.57	Brownsville	2.12
2000	30	29.5	2000	35	32.00	Brownsville	2.50
2001	32	30	2001	32	32.00	Brownsville	2.00
2002	34	30.5	2002	30	31.71	Brownsville	1.21
2003	27	30.9	2003	35	32.19	Brownsville	1.29
2004	34	31.3	2004	28	32.57	Brownsville	1.27
2005	31	31.8	2005	35	32.57	Brownsville	0.77
2006	37	32.35	2006	35	32.90	Brownsville	0.55
2007	35	32.45	2007	35	32.86	Brownsville	0.41
2008	29	32.25	2008	36	32.95	Brownsville	0.70
2009	32	32.65	2009	31	32.76	Brownsville	0.11
2010	25	31.9	2010	29	33.38	Brownsville	1.48
2011	31	31.8	2011	28	33.33	Brownsville	1.53
2012	34	31.7	2012	37	33.24	Brownsville	1.54
2013	38	31.85	2013	36	33.33	Brownsville	1.48
2014	33	31.75	2014	32	33.38	Brownsville	1.63
2015	34	32.05	2015	37	33.33	Brownsville	1.28
2016	37	32.65	2016	37	33.19	Brownsville	0.54
2017	34	32.8	2017	31	33.29	Brownsville	0.49
2018	29	32.3	2018	30	33.29	Brownsville	0.99
2019	40	32.8	2019	37	33.43	Brownsville	0.63

 

Then, palmageddon changed up the averages and in the last few years, Tampa has been substantially warmer:

Tampa			Brownsville			Comparison
Year	Minimum	20-Year Average	Year	Minimum	20-Year Average	Warmer City	Difference
2020	36	33.1	2020	34	33.33	Brownsville	0.23
2021	42	33.6	2021	22	32.71	Tampa	0.89
2022	31	33.45	2022	27	32.48	Tampa	0.97
2023	40	34.1	2023	37	32.81	Tampa	1.29
2024	37	34.25	2024	29	32.52	Tampa	1.73

Even living around here, this surprised me.

Weather is interesting, and from now on I will use Tampa as my proxy for what can be grown here.

 

[Jimbean]

As far as I can tell, both locations are similar, as well as Merritt Island/Melbourne, and Sarasota.  Brownsville averages a higher annual minimum but gets slammed harder if the conditions are just right (or in this case, wrong).  

[ahosey01]

11 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

As far as I can tell, both locations are similar, as well as Merritt Island/Melbourne, and Sarasota.  Brownsville averages a higher annual minimum but gets slammed harder if the conditions are just right (or in this case, wrong).  

I think in terms of minimum lows during those bad freezes we're pretty similar - but it's the duration of the freezes that is bad here in particular.  I think it was like almost 24 hours below freezing in the 80s or something crazy.  At least that's what I've heard - no data though.

Then again, there is Archbold Station.

[Zeeth]

It's interesting to see how much warmer Tampa has gotten since the 70's. I would say that it doesn't really reflect with the stuff that's being planted out here. Most landscaping material here seems to still be geared towards the 9a/9b side of things, compared with Orlando where 10a stuff seems to be becoming more common. Maybe that'll end up paying off if we get another decade like the 80's, but it makes for a more boring environment in the meantime. 

[SubTropicRay]

Brownsville's all time low is 12F.  That's 6 degrees colder than Tampa's all time low of 18F.  Brownsville despite being west of the Gulf and in close proximity, is affected by a continental climate.  Tampa lies on a peninsula and has more maritime affects.  Brownsville's climate is drier which benefits some plants on cold nights.  It's really like comparing apples to oranges.

[ahosey01]

1 hour ago, Zeeth said:

It's interesting to see how much warmer Tampa has gotten since the 70's. I would say that it doesn't really reflect with the stuff that's being planted out here. Most landscaping material here seems to still be geared towards the 9a/9b side of things, compared with Orlando where 10a stuff seems to be becoming more common. Maybe that'll end up paying off if we get another decade like the 80's, but it makes for a more boring environment in the meantime. 

That is what I noticed too, particularly since the 80's.  A nearly 6-degree swing in 20-year average extreme minimums.  Not being terribly familiar with the nursery trade there - is there a climactic or other environmental reason that you see more tender tropical things for sale in Orlando than in Tampa, or just preference?  For example, you don't see Butia for sale in Brownsville generally, but that is because they absolutely hate our heavy soil.

45 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

Brownsville's all time low is 12F.  That's 6 degrees colder than Tampa's all time low of 18F.  Brownsville despite being west of the Gulf and in close proximity, is affected by a continental climate.  Tampa lies on a peninsula and has more maritime affects.  Brownsville's climate is drier which benefits some plants on cold nights.  It's really like comparing apples to oranges.

Totally agree, apples to oranges.  Just surprised me cause I had stayed in Tampa years ago and to me, back then, it was just a tropical paradise lol.  One interesting rule of thumb here that I have heard from many local guys is if you want to plant tender stuff, plant tender stuff that clumps so it will regrow after getting knocked back in a big freeze, since we get so many warm winters and then the monster freezes.  I think our soil conditions are probably also totally different.  Here, at least south of Los Fresnos, it is a thick, black, heavy clay that some palms (queens and sabals) love and others (bismarcks and pindos) hate.  We haven't had rain in a month now and my soil is still very damp from the 40"+ we have received this year.

[Zeeth]

32 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

That is what I noticed too, particularly since the 80's.  A nearly 6-degree swing in 20-year average extreme minimums.  Not being terribly familiar with the nursery trade there - is there a climactic or other environmental reason that you see more tender tropical things for sale in Orlando than in Tampa, or just preference?  For example, you don't see Butia for sale in Brownsville generally, but that is because they absolutely hate our heavy soil.

I think big landscape projects here are more focused on long-term survival whereas Orlando is catered towards tourists who expect a tropical appearance. The funny thing is that a lot of the stuff they use in landscaping here is dead within a few years anyway from disease (Lethal bronzing, Fusarium, Palm Weevil, etc). 

[flplantguy]

Its a lot of older businesses here too, not many new ones make it long, so the idea is those plants are a no go too, either old experience saying "thats why we dont sell it we would go under too" or lack of data like my area.  Here its all about placement and microclimate so they stick to whats an easy win.  If the weather was the same (or at least closer) on Pinellas point as Oldsmar or Dade City that would change it, but the idea of heavy study to know and create something great is not part of the culture here i guess.  That and fast urban heat island expansion, cold sinks, lakes, the uplands inland, etc its hard to know what to grow where if your not an expert, which we dont have many here outside private interests like people here.  If i ever start to sell palms it will not be a nursery but a smaller backyard thing to spread the knowledge.

[ahosey01]

44 minutes ago, Zeeth said:

I think big landscape projects here are more focused on long-term survival whereas Orlando is catered towards tourists who expect a tropical appearance. The funny thing is that a lot of the stuff they use in landscaping here is dead within a few years anyway from disease (Lethal bronzing, Fusarium, Palm Weevil, etc). 

Yeah around here it's a confusing mix of rock solid and edgy things that I can't make heads or tails of.

Foxtails and Royals are super popular, and do really well and even make it through the vast majority of freezes.  Archontophoenix are hard to come by, however.

You can find Bottles and Ptychosperma everywhere, but cocos and Adonidia are rare.

Meanwhile, everyone and their brother sells Phoenix dactylifera despite their propensity for disease, but you can't actually find a Sabal mexicana around here that isn't gigantic and field dug.

The one thing that is super commonly sold down here that makes perfect sense is Queens.  They're rock solid, they absolutely love our soil and they look better than anywhere else in the country, and they're dirt cheap.