California / Arizona / Southwest Winter 2024 -25 ..and maybe a faint glimmer of hope for later on??: It's all up in the air..

[Silas_Sancona]

Was going to hold off for another week  for some additional data to come in before posting this years thread  but decided that i'll add that in later..  Regardless, time for some thoughts on what the winter ahead for CA and the rest of the Southwestern U.S. might hold this year.. 


Could it be another wet one?  chilly ..or chillier?     ..or could the current " dry n' warm " theme playing out thus far this fall hold on thru the shortest months of the year?    ..And what about that glimmer i mentioned..   Whatz that about??..

..As the end of the title says ..It is all,  up in the air..


While there are some decent indications the current heatwave we've been seeing may finally begin to break down, one look at the current ECMWF Weeklys,  ..as well as extended range thoughts from other WX models are suggesting -for now at least-  the above normal lean in temps / below normal lean precip- wise will continue overall thru the rest of October and into November across most of the Southwest and CA.

Pac. N.W. / N. Rockies, down to maybe as far south as far N. Cal. may start to see more rainfall ..and cooler temps, though not all the model runs agree on that outcome.

Some factors to eyeball going forward:

ENSO:
As is suggested by most current model output, it does appear as though we're headed into a La Nina Winter, though to be honest, it isn't looking all that strong.  How could that influence things?  ..tough to say..  While one would assume Neutral / Weak ENSO winters = less direct influence upon winter season temp / precip patterns ( IE: maybe more rain / snow potential for the southwest during a neutral / weak Nina winter, compared to the dry / warm outcome that might be observed if La Nina were deeper )  we all know ENSO is just one thing that influences the weather this time of year.  There have been many winters w/ dry and warm El Ninos, and Wet and chilly La Ninas..    ..So ENSO is just one piece of a complicated puzzle..

Using the current uncorrected chart, it's pretty obvious La Nina may not even break -1 before possibly rising back toward neutral territory after the start of next year - esp. if  some things pointed out in recent, weekly video updates from Mark Sponslor ( Storm Surf )  pan out at that time..    His recent take on the current state of the PDO is worth checking out too.  Anyway..

As you can see, La Nina looks pretty weak ..maybe weakly moderate -at best- right now.  Obviously, that could change by December.  Simply put, how the WX pattern evolves around this teleconnection is ...up in the air..

Will be watching to see how quickly the currently suggested forecast trend rebounds after January..  headed back toward warm neutral? ..or stay on the Neg. side of it as we head toward spring??   That outcome could influence the hinted at  " glimmer " down the road..



P.V. / Arctic -related stuff:

As some might have read,  supposedly, Polar Vortex reached a 40 year low recently..  Despite what is stated in the linked article, how this actually effects things going forward will remain to be seen.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/weakest-polar-vortex-in-40-years-could-bring-unusual-winter-conditions-to-north-america-europe/ss-AA1rV9Ew

Judah Cohen has resumed his weekly AER blog updates and for now, doesn't really see anything too concerning ..as it is related to the above mentioned article / P.V..

Oct. 7th blog update: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/


Curiously enough, he did post a recap from the winter of 2020 -21 a few weeks back, ..which i found  🤔 only because i've heard several people comparing the recent stretch of heat we've been seeing to a similar pattern seen in fall of 2020..  Obviously,  not a prediction for what -might- lie ahead ..but maybe something to watch..

Would post a link to that blog post ( September 23rd ) but apparently it wasn't archived / my butt can't find a link to it.




Outlooks:

October update from the NMME- model forecasts: 

Nov, LEAD #1:







Dec, LEAD #2:







Jan, LEAD #3:






Feb LEAD #4:









 Current CanSIPS ( T - Tidbits ) outlooks < Sept. 30th update > also looks dry / warm thru the upcoming winter as well.

NOV.








DEC.







JAN.







FEB.






....As you can see, Majority of the current model " Thoughts " are doubling down on a dry and -at least- mild ( warm / hot here ..perhaps? )  winter ahead.. CFS, whose thoughts change more often,  is also looking dry / mild over the next 3-4 months,  though it does suggest more of an above normal precip lean for the Pac. N.W. / N. Central Rockies than the CanSIPS.  



Will -any-  of these thoughts pan out? ..or could we see them all bust like they did during the winter of 22-23?   This far out?   ..even if they can't be completely ignored,   it is all  up in the air.
 

That said, ..if they do pan out, ..its gonna be pretty dry for ....awhile... down here.


Me myself?, i can see the decent potential for a warm / dry winter ahead, even under the influence of a weaker than was anticipated La Nina..   Warm doesn't = 90s and 60/ 70s in December and Jan. though.  

Frost potential this year?  ..Maybe not.

Rain ( and Snow )?  just below Average  -at best-, Probably drier,  locally at least.    Maybe average in Cen Utah / W. CO.  " Good " snowfall this year may stay further north though.

Cen and S. Cal may follow the same dry / mild trend as well..



...So, who will be right??  .. -Any- of the Models?   ...My random / rambling thoughts?



....Or Washed up Cosplay Johnny Depp who falls off his scooter while trying to escape visits by the FBI scam artist w/ a bad track record forecast guy..




We'll live either way..






....So, what about that glimmer o' hope later on down the line??

As i've mentioned in the past,  while it isn't a 100% guarantee,  really dry / warmer winters / quick  start to " Hot Spring " conditions here can  sometimes result in the possibility of a wetter summer the following year.   After two brutal  summers, in a row none the less,  we can only hope this old skool idea has some validity.

Ever since the CanSIPS has reached the point where it can gaze far enough out on the horizon to get the faintest hint at what might lie ahead,  wayyy ahead,   it has been hinting at the possibility a different outcome compared to what it was seeing at about the same time last year    ..the possibility of a wetter summer,  -next year-

Obviously, such thoughts are wayyyy out in time,  and can change dramatically by the time we reach the start of April,  but, ...Of all the longer term Wx models that has done a reasonably decent job of seeing hints of patterns, far out in advance,  CanSIPS has done ok..      Good enough that it is worth watching, ...with a bowl of Salt.. 

After this summer's brutality,  a wet one will be badly needed  -if-  this winter is extremely dry.



A " far off in the future "  preview at what the current update of the  NMME is thinking for Spring 2025.. 

While spring here = the driest time of the year,  note what the models seem to be hinting at in southern Mexico,  where the " wet season " starts off a bit sooner.  ..October update only goes out to May.  Whole June - September season will be in view by March.  


If any of the  * Starred * indiv. Model thoughts are correct,  spring 2025 could be quite  toasty here.. Just a bit different than the last couple years, 22-23 esp. lol.

March,  LEAD 5:









April, LEAD 6:








MAY,  LEAD 7:










CanSIPS goes out further,  but i'll only post it's thoughts thru June...  Posting the potential  Precip. trend outlooks only.. 

A much different late spring / start to summer in Mexico next year???????   ...Will be keeping a close eye on how this evolves over the coming months.


April:



MAY:





JUNE:  👀





Will be interesting to see what  -if any- influence a potential return to neutral / warm neutral ENSO conditions might have on these outlooks come March / April.  Hoping we stay in Neg territory, ..only headed more Neg. by May / June, rather than trying for EL Nino, Take 2.



This one may have just ended,  but us Monsoon Season nerds are always looking toward the next.  

Fingers Crossed,  ...even this far out,  next year is working hard to make up for the last two.    Gotta keep that glass half full. 


More updates later..

 

[Silas_Sancona]

While not strictly relegated to this part of the world, since these WX events can have important effects on winter weather across CA, and the broader Western U.S.,  Interesting article from the Conversation regarding noted shifts in Atmospheric Rivers over the last few decades..

https://theconversation.com/atmospheric-rivers-are-shifting-poleward-reshaping-global-weather-patterns-240673

Will be interesting to see where this leads in future studies..

[Silas_Sancona]

Nov. update to the 90 day forecasts...  Thoughts from the NMME, CFS / CanSIPS, or NOAA   ...Whose thoughts will pan out as the year closes out and '25 rolls in??


November:





Nov, Dec, Jan:







Dec, Jan, Feb:









Jan, Feb, Mar:









Feb, Mar, Apr:

[Silas_Sancona]

ENSO update from the IRI:

[RFun]

I'll guess on the dry side and a bit warm for the Southwest.  I am expecting the Northwest to be cold again this Winter.

[Silas_Sancona]

November NMME update thoughts ..and some other thoughts as the final month of Autumn ( Meteorological ) ticks away..

Despite the cool start to Nov. here,  Majority of this month's update continues the overall warm look to the maps for the next couple months.. 

Dec:







Jan:








Feb:





A look at March:







Digging at it a little more,  ..IF...  there is going to be any serious cold threats over the next couple months, specifically for Cen. / Southern CA and AZ, only 3 of the individual models within the overall monthly model suite are showing it right now  ..1 in January,  2 and Feb.  We'll see.

                             ***  Obviously,  these are just thoughts ..What actually occurs may differ.  ***


Shorter term:

** Not pictured ** While more changeable, today's thoughts from the ECMWF Weeklys ( 2m Temp Mean / Anomalies, and Precip for North America. Extend out 6 weeks )  also seem to trend mostly  mild / warm and dry beyond next week / mid- month, at the latest. 


Current MJO Phases: 

Signals also seem to signal the approach of the next Inactive Phase ( = Dashed line contours / Blue shades on the maps ) ..which will temper ..if not completely subdue... West Pacific generated energy import into any storms crossing the Pacific as they approach the west coast ...likely focusing most storm activity across the Pac. Northwest, rather than driving any widespread, stronger storms into Cen. /Southern CA, and a majority of AZ.









While anything beyond the start of Dec. in the map below  is more " could happen / We'll see what happens" scenario, rather than " is likely " this far out,   the next possible active phase on the diagram may bring in the next series of storms to areas below the Pac. N.W...

Then again, for now at least, by the time that active phase reaches roughly 120 Lon. (  120 Lon west = Purple Dot = roughly right under Point Conception ) it may not have much influence over any storms that might head into the west coast at that time.. ( muted orange colors / more blues showing up at that 120W latitude = weaker storms  )



This map adjusts itself almost daily, so, we'll have to see if that next assumed Active Phase grows stronger ( More solid - line contours / Yellow, Orange colors that expand further east than is currently suggested  ) or weakens,  compared to how it looks atm..

Also watching to see how the next Inactive Phase, set to get going sometime around mid / late Dec. looks as we get closer to that timeframe..  If it doesn't collapse before it gets going, that could signal what the end of winter 24 -25 might look like.




Current OLR indices ( Dynamical and Statistical ) outlooks also hinting at an inactive / dry / cloud-free phase setting up over the West Pac. over the next couple weeks ( What you see on the maps =  about a 7-10 day lag time in when X " Phase " starts influencing the weather across the Pacific ) Less cloud cover there = trending drier weather here ..generally speaking..




How to read these maps:

Yellow / Orange = less cloud cover / drier air =  high pressure bias..  /  Blue shades = more clouds / moister air  = low pressure bias.

 When a "stormier " phase sits laid out over the West Pac.  -from roughly between Hawaii and Papua New Guinea-   that can help energize the N. Pac. Jet Stream, resulting in wet storms reaching lower Latitudes along the west coast of the U.S.. 








 

[SeanK]

Warm and Wet would be nice.

[Silas_Sancona]

On 11/9/2024 at 3:57 PM, SeanK said:

Warm and Wet would be nice.

Warm  = good

Rain?  =   ..Everyone east of the Rockies can have it this year. 

 

[Desert DAC]

6 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Warm  = good

Rain?  =   ..Everyone east of the Rockies can have it this year. 

 

Really detailed climatology and outlooks here! Though even I'm overwhelmed with all those maps, I hope to look at them in more detail. And I want some unexpected moisture this winter in NM, given such a long, hot, and mostly non-soon season in 2024.

Here in Las Cruces, 4,000-ish ft elevation, we had our first freeze on Nov 5 (10 days earlier than average). And the really chilly air with an earlier than usual first snow last week up in ABQ, only advanced south far enough to die just above T or C.  So far, 2-4 light freezes across our county and 1 hard freeze:
30 Nov 5
32 Nov 8
28 Nov 9

[Silas_Sancona]

December check in:

December NMME thoughts update:

Lead #1: Jan.





Lead #2. Feb.






Lead#3: Mar.







Current PDF corrected look at where things may be headed ENSO Phase- wise: 

Biggest change here, the " slipping away " of any + neutral lean to the graph as we head out of winter by a majority of the models..  Leaning, -for now at least- more in Minus Neutral territory as we head forward.  Obviously, this can change, though the graphs below point out the obvious strengthening Inactive - phase dominant state in the pacific, which only adds fuel to -whatever- flavor of Post winter La Nina occurs this spring.  This could be a favorable sign for the summer ahead..



Quick note on the PDO:... In October, the PDO index reached it's lowest value ever recorded.. September came in close 2nd / November = quite low as well.  Deep Neg. PDO = greater La Nina -esque effects bias..


Overall historical data can be accessed here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/




Current MJO phase state: Deeper Blues / Purples = Strong inactive MJO bias.  Note how the " active " portion of the MJO doesn't really make much -if any- headway into the Pacific -for now at least.  Active MJO phase not exerting much -if any- influence on the Pacific = Far less potential for persistent, nor all that strong, storms effecting the West / South.

120W line added..




Current MJO phase state + HP / LP Bias..




As mentioned elsewhere, if there are going to be any big storm episodes across the west ( particularly the S.W. ) over the next couple months, -for now- those opportunities look best where " Active " MJO phase energy pulses reach 120W ( Encircled in Purple )

Since the signal within that time frame looks rather weak atm / HP bias is exerting influence ( ..this graph can swing back and forth w/ each update, so this could change, either way, by the outlined time ) ..if any opportunities for significant,  back to back storminess particularlily aimed at the southwest were to develop within that time frame, it likely won't have much impact / be weak, etc.. as it reaches the West coast, esp. the farther south one goes.

Note that -currently at least-  by the end of Jan. / start of Feb. influence from the next big potential Inactive MJO phase set in ..and carry us thru the start of Meto. Spring at the start of March..


That said, ..While i have some  🤔 regarding it's accuracy,  it does appear, -at least according to today's thoughts on this map-,  some " active " MJO energy could reach under ..and / or just east of Hawaii,  which could impart some energy to any storms that might spin up near CA or Baja..   It could also effect storm behavior further east -if energy cuts across Mexico, and is then pulled north by any storms passing across the upper Midwest / Northeast



Remember, on the OLR Maps,  Blue colors = more clouds and moisture / Reds & Oranges = less cloudiness / drier air..






...Additional check on ..any..  hints regarding next summer ..Since the NMME forecast thoughts now extend out to July..

**** Obviously,   While tantalizing speculation this far out,  an even more " encouraging signs " look to both the current NMME thoughts / monthly update from the Can-SIPS.. ****



NMME Suite precip thoughts outlook for June. While dry -ish here ( Typical for June ) Note the obvious wetter than normal signal across Mexico in a majority of the data.. Wetter June creeping north in Mexico = good sign.




July... This far out, the normal / weak above normal looking signal for the southwest is encouraging as well and not unexpected..

Fingers crossed that signal grows stronger as we reach / get into Spring..

Overall, Eyes are on Mexico Feb. - May this year..





CanSIPS outlooks:... Possibly a bit too enthusiastic, bull-ish or whatever...  but,  would be pretty sweet if this were to pan out, for both our neck of the woods,  and Mexico.  This month's update has only grown more optimistic compared to last months.   

Didn't post it because it's thoughts are more un-amused and change a lot but the current CFSv2 thoughts for the summer ahead has a wet leaning signal reaching into CA at times in both Aug. and September..  Wayyyyy far out, yes, ..but  ..interesting..  for now.






For now, At least there isn't as much dry/ below normal  - lean colors on a majority of the NMME maps for the Southwest as we look that far forward in time.  We'll see if this distant,  possible??  hint  adds up to anything  watch - worthy  by Feb.  

Even 6-8 months out, Anything  encouraging a normal / wet monsoon season,  is better  than nothing..

Again, eyes on what occurs in southern and eastern Mexico once we reach mid - Feb.





Final thoughts,  for now...

Daniel Swain's thoughts on the next few weeks: https://weatherwest.com/archives/43144




My own rambling musings:

*** For the most part, what you see, is what lies ahead, ...at least thru what is left of the holidays ( Hurry up and be done, lol )..  Warmer than normal -overall, w/ some cool-ish breaks between many more warmer days...



*** High chance it starts getting " hot " by mid Feb. / 2nd week in March -at the latest- here.. First 100F reading? .Maybe by the 1st day of Astro spring. Maybe sooner.



*** ( In- ) Accuweather wants to throw around a streak of mornings in the mid / lower 30s here by the end of the month / 1st half of January ..I'm not sold, though the threat of a few chilly mornings before the start of Feb. is there..   We'll see..

Same idea for CA..  ...We'll see what ..if anything.. happens in regards to any late Dec / Jan. frosts or freeze potential, esp across S. Cal.  Gut feeling says most areas escape anything significant.. ..Simply stays too mild / warm, cold air intrusions are swept well east of the Rockies before they can pool in to the Great Basin / spill into CA.

That said, don't be surprised if a few frost threats occur end of Dec - 3rd week in Jan..


*** Majority of any " good " opportunities for rain stay north of Monterey.  Predom. dry leaning  streak continues for S. Cal  ..and here.. Spit / Sprinkles possible occasionally though..


*** Sierras will get some snow, esp. the north end,   but don't hold your breath for a repeat / getting close to what occurred last year / ' 23 kinda snowfall accumulation.. 


*** Rim / Whites here in AZ????? ..We'll see if the high country here gets much of anything significant.  Likely gone by mid Feb. / start of March regardless..  Very little -if any- " white death " falling on the majority of the Sky Islands " ..with the exception of Mt. Graham, which might see some, early...


*** Rockies? Good Snow will be best further north.. Then again, could the entire Rockies -within the U.S.  miss out on " big " snow this year??  Great Basin areas look mainly free of any significant snowfall..


*** Looking for a White ( death ) X-Mass? ..gonna be tough to find in most of the west ..possibly most of the country if what seems to be showing up in the WX models today has any pull.



Again, just thoughts.. What actually happens,  is what happens..   How totally wrong could i be... 😁

We'll see how things are lookin'  ...in Feb.

[Silas_Sancona]

One last note i forgot to add (  ..Since i'm sure there are folks who maybe don't eye ball it much, ...and might be curious )

Current PV / 10Hpa winds forecast thoughts from both the ECMWF ( Weeklys Website ) and from another source ( GEFS forecasts )

ECMWF:  Looking strong and majority of forecasts keeping it pretty strong thru -at least- mid Dec., ..And quite possibly thru Jan ( up until the 20th on the chart currently )




Link to the other site: 
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/strat/


Note the additional charts here dictating % of forecasts suggesting strength, any chance of weakening, SSW potential etc...


Overall thoughts:  Pretty interesting ( but not unusual i'd assume ) that -for the most part, GEFS and ECMWF forecasts are pretty much on the same page -For now at least-

Will they stay harmonious, or change their tune as we end Dec. and get into the start of 2025??

If it stays strong thru all  of Jan / into mid Feb  ..Well,  you know what that means    ...or doesn't..

We'll see...

[Silas_Sancona]

With the start of a new month ...and year... underway, time to look at some thoughts regarding the month ahead ...as well as some other things to casually eyeball as the what is left of  the 2025 half of " winter 24 /25 progresses here in the West / Southwest..

While a subtle wavering of the overall Wx pattern across the U.S. is set to bring us a taste of " winter " here over the next few days, the overall " mild to warm ..and dry,  esp. across S. Cal and AZ  trend continues " ..even if a developing cut off low set to swing southwest from the Great Basin to a position centered somewhere over the N. end of the Gulf of CA before heading east generates heavy enough sprinkles to end our current 136 day dry streak, and /or another possible storm on some of the models might offer up some precip for S. Cal where it hasn't rained in 7-9 months..

Same set up is threatening a major Santa Ana -type event for a big portion of S. Cal tomorrow - -at least Wednesday.  Beyond that??

How 2025 is starting out precip- trend wise across the west.. Note the very dramatic dipole this winter across CA atm..




...While the suggested shift in the pattern over the next ...1 to 3 weeks may bring a round of near seasonal to slightly below normal temps to both AZ and CA ( ...and surrounding areas )  if the longer term thoughts from both the ECMWF weeklys and current GEFS ( 00z 840 hour runs ) stick with what they have been suggesting since NYE,  the next 10-14 days could end up being the cool cut in an otherwise warm sandwich..  ....with the prevailing " above normal temp lean " to the forecast returning just after the 20th.. 

** As always, since things can change, we'll see how things actually progress.   That said,  the trend in both model's longer term thoughts has not wavered much since it started showing up ...or more correctly, ..continued... Current CFS = same thoughts.. No reason to assume it will suddenly break  -dramatically-  the other way.. **

Biggest difference seen as we head thru this month may be that unlike the past month, N Cal may dry out a bit this time around, at least for a couple weeks ..though i won't be surprised if that potential dry streak extends out longer than some model thoughts currently suggest.

While just a few pieces of a pretty big puzzle, a few obvious things stick out when looking at what the MJO is doing / direction of a  potential OLR trend over the next 4 weeks, if not what is left of winter 24 /25..




***MJO:  Cool colors = Inactive phase. Warm colors = Active phase.. Purple = bits and pieces of the active phase that may bleed over to roughly CA ( 120W ) at times over the next week or two.. When the active phase ..or bits of it... are passing by,  that is when the weather can turn more active..




Note the predominant cool color inactive phase bias in the Pacific thus far this winter / next pulse of that phase suggested as we head thru the month ( Orange circle on the second map above ).. Combined with the Active Phase essentially being locked up over S.E. Asia thus far this winter, ..and going forward,  = La Nina, even if it is more a  Modoki -type event, rather than the traditional flavor..



Longer term MJO thoughts...  Color scheme = same idea as the shorter term MJO maps.. Purple circle = timeframe where active phase energy will be passing across 120W




*** A note on all three maps i always seem to forget to mention  ..what you see on each is what is captured at the moment ..and things can shift around a little day to day.  What is important to look for on them is the overall trend they might be showing.. ***



OLR... A measure of cloud cover across the Pacific.. Colors should reflect the obvious.. Cooler colors = more cloud cover / moisture... Warmer colors = clear skies / less moisture / High Pressure bias..



...as it is looking right now, a very pronounced drying trend may be setting up / working it's way across   the Pacific thru the month.

Really dry bias settling over the W. Pac / working east into the U.S. and Mexico later = less energy being imparted into the Jet stream as it passes over thus, a weaker jet that more than likely stays focused over the Pac. N.W...

Overall, sure looking like a " What has been predominant in the Wx pattern across the West,  thus far,  looks to continue as we head  toward...  the final month of Winter "  kind of pattern ahead..

As mentioned elsewhere, here at least,  while we can see " spring showers " at almost any point between late Feb. - the start of June, meaningful rainfall, -for our area- ...the kind that keeps drought at bay,  typically falls within a late Nov. - end of Jan. timeframe.  Those Rare, strong spring storms rarely = drought busters and typically occur during wet winter years, rather than the dry ones...





Things to watch for as first  part of the year unfolds...

Anyone who insists we're not experiencing a La Nina really needs to get it together..  Definitely occurring, even if it isn't super strong / not resulting in what some would consider " typical " La Nina winter conditions ....isn't " measuring up " to an old standard in a warming world..


Current CDAS SST readings. 3.4 is the important monitoring region but the 1.2 of Ecuador is important to look at too..  Modoki look to this year's cycle really stands out when looking at this data..

While it has been staying in the weak La Nina territory, almost rising back into neg. neutral territory ( Red circle ),  you can see that the trend started moving deeper into solid L.N. territory recently ( Yellow circle ).

That said, it would have to stay below -1.0 until ...March for this winter's L.N. to be considered solid / bordering stronger ( 1.4 or lower reading ) .. We'll see..

Almost reached -1.5..  With another solid flare up of the inactive phase of the MJO suggested,  Might it make another run at -1.4 or 5 again?..






Current thoughts on where ENSO may be heading as winter heads out..  Orange circles represent where things were last April ( and July = Purple Circle ) ..and where things could be headed into this coming April ( ..and July.. ) ..Smart folks know why i'm watching this closely, lol..  Lower = better..    We'll see how this shakes out.




Current SSTs off CA / Pacific via SOTO data...  So much for below normal water off CA atm...  Going forward thoughts =







....Can this hang on  thru the next month or two and start warming more as spring arrives?  Will the cool-ish patch off the N. Cal coast warm more??    Surprised to see so much above normal readings in the far N. Pac. off AK.

..Could this be the first hint of a future marine heatwave cycle off CA to come???..

We'll see...





Fresh off tonight's GEFS 840 hour run...  

Temp trend lean ..after the 20th..













Suggested total precip. for all of Jan.  Nothing meaningful about those totals here, ...if this thought ends up reality, ...which is quite possible.



If the GEFS sticks w/ this look, instead of what you see being simple fantasy...

Warm ..and pretty darn dry January ahead... 


...Will add the coming month's NMME thoughts when they are posted... 

[Silas_Sancona]

12 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

..Will add the coming month's NMME thoughts when they are posted.

NMME thoughts for the rest of " Winter " ..and Spring 2025:    Full  view now goes out to August.  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml


Feb:






Mar:






April:






May:

[SouthernCATropicals]

Very interesting, im curious for an update

[Silas_Sancona]

31 minutes ago, SouthernCATropicals said:

Very interesting, im curious for an update

  I'll have something up regarding thoughts for Feb - Mar a little later today..

[Silas_Sancona]

Some early ..well, close enough, lol ..musings as the final month of " Winter " 24 / 25 rolls in,  and  the " Spring Ahead " sign comes into view a few hundred yards away along the highway.

MJO / OLR check:  *** Note:  What you're seeing now on these maps can -and often does- shift around a bit daily / weekly ..so it is always wise to check on them whenever curious about what is going on..  Big thing that provides hints about what the weather pattern may look like is the overall trend being seen, not the day to day variability.. IE:  Stronger inactive trend on the charts? = higher likely hood of a drier / milder forecast / Wx pattern ahead.. 

Keep in mind, what the MJO is doing is just at A, B, or C point in time = one puzzle piece in the total picture of a weather pattern..










*** For anyone interested:  easiest way to access / eyeball the same charts / maps ..whatever.. Head over to the " Pacific Storms and Surf Forecast " section on Stormsurf.  From there,  scroll down to the bottom of the page and click on the " ENSO Powertool "  link on the right side of the page, right below the PDO discussion section ****




Another piece:  Sea Surface Temp Anomalies off CA - Jan. 24th data, from SOTO / Worldview ( Type in " SOTO Sea Surface temps " to easily access the same maps / data..  ...Is how i get there.. )





Some slightly cooler than avrg. water right off CA, but ..Big pool of much warmer water is hanging tough further offshore/ across the entire N.  Pac. Basin..  Kind of surprised the near coastal waters aren't cooler than they are atm.

Closely eyeballing this to see how this influences things as we exit winter / get into spring and the Polar Jet really starts retreating north. If the warmer than average lean doesn't budge, Lesser and lesser storm activity to provide cloud cover over these waters could = faster spring season warming, which then could creep closer to the coastal waters later.. We'll see...



Before i get to my own random musings, Thoughts from Daniel Swain, ...whose thoughts count -just a bit- more than my own, lol...

That said, Overall, his thoughts at the moment mirror a lot of what i've been thinking.  While it is nice to see some rain and snow in S. Cal  ..FINALLY...  don't expect this storm to bust the overall dry trend for the last full month of winter / into the upcoming Spring.. 






His full blog post update: https://weatherwest.com/archives/43277



My own random-est of musings..

As just mentioned,  While the storm bringing some much welcomed relief will definitely be a good thing, Overall, ..would not get your hopes up for any miracles..

** While wavering a little in exact degree, prevailing trend(s) in the ECMWF weeklys  heading into next month continues to be dry and mild to warm, esp. here in AZ..

** Same idea when looking at what is being suggested by the models Copernicus uses..  *** Can easily be accessed by simply typing in " Copernicus long term weather models " How i access the data anyway..   ..From there, choose X or Y model data to examine, then choose " North America " to get a closer look at what X or Y model is suggesting for the U.S.

FYI:  forecast thoughts from Copernicus now extend out to June..

*** Keep in mind that just like any other WX forecast model, thoughts can change as each monthly update is published..  Further out in time a weather model extends, = more of  " what does the trend seem to hint at "  rather than information to be taken as " this is exactly  what will occur " Some weather models may have a decent track record at times, but none are -or will ever be- perfect at guessing the future ***




**  While the overall trend next month looks to continues as it has,  don't be surprised if some storms / cooler spells -besides the current one-  show up / roll through the region, esp. during the first half of Feb.  Some of the models have been stuck on this sort of unsettled- ish pattern look recently, after a sudden flip from consistent and overall warm / storm free..

** That said, GEFS  ..Daily 00z 840 hour runs of it..  continues with it's overall mainly mild n' dry look as we head into next month..  Whether the warmer end of it's thoughts are confined to mid / late month and beyond, or spread out across all of Feb.  we'll just have to wait and see..

** While S. Cal. could see another opportunity or two for some showers after this one, at some point,  bulk of  repeated / beneficial precip chances may stay north of Central CA thru the month ahead..

Start of March / Meteorological Spring may offer up a few chances for rain slipping back into S. Cal.  for this end of the year..

AZ?  While it can always change  ..MOST LIKELY outcome = ..may be really tough to get -any- rain ..let alone anything significant... into the area next month, esp. once past mid month / headed into March..  Snow chances? .minimal -at best ..as it looks right now..

** Once we reach March, snow chances will likely vanish.. Whatever snow may be on the ground up in the mountains ..if we get any next month...  could be long gone before St. Patty's day..   ....Unless there's a late season surprise / weather stays just cool enough ..for long enough.. to keep any of it around.  HIGHLY unlikely this year,  but,  ..we'll see..

** Any heat may wax and wane through next month, ..but i think it will end up fairly warm myself..  March? Warmer than Feb ..though a couple final " cool " days ..which typically occur in March thrown in.. By the start of Astro Spring? ..nagging suspicion says a few 90s on the board by that time / maybe flirting w/ our first 100F by the 31st ( of March ) ..or maybe it occurs a few days earlier.

Overall, likely a MUCH warmer start to Spring this year compared to the last couple years..


** As Daniel Mentions, April and May could = quite warm (  ..Would likely be hot here. )  Seen this in some other early thoughts regarding what this spring could look like too, so,  ... Something to watch..

The potential early start to the warm season fire season in S. Cal ..and here in AZ that Daniel mentions toward the end of his longer term thoughts above  is something that will need to be carefully monitored as well.

When they come in, i'll add some adtnl. thoughts on next month later..

**  As always ..these are just thoughts ..my own at least.  Take them with a side of salt ..And lime or Lemon slice, if you prefer..  Don't ever take as gospel.. 

If a WX forecast / thoughts on a forecast from X, Y, and Z model used to predict a forecast can't tell me the exact store i need to go to to pick up my winning $2 billion dollar lotto ticket, let alone exactly when i should be there / what #s to pick,  none of them know exactly  how the weather will be 2, 10, 25, or 60 days ahead of time..

That said, we'll see how things play out as we escape " winter " and head into the warmer and longer days ahead..





 

[Josue Diaz]

On the ground here in Fresno, this winter has seen very little frost (if any? except in low lying, rural areas) and a low temp so far of 34F. Cannnas untouched, bananas untouched, brugmansias untouched. I'm anxiously watching the sun's angle increase week by week.

[Silas_Sancona]

With the end of February now rounding the corner, so too is the end of Meteorological Winter / Start of Met. Spring...

While it might not feel like it in some parts of the west yet, with the years first 90F high forecast for the week ahead,  Spring is already on our doorstep here this year.. 

Yes,  that comes with a not so great trade off,  ...IE:  what could likely end up being within the top 5 driest winters here.  While it is pretty dry out there, water situation isn't as dire as a " top 5 driest winter " might sound  N. Cal is looking pretty good atm. N. Rockies should add at least ~some~ runoff to the major reservoirs later.  After the last two decent winters, local reservoirs are also in reasonably good shape for at least the year ahead, if not the next two, before things become more concerning, ...if next winter, and perhaps the winter after are bone dry.

That said,  our " spring " fire season will need to be watched closely.  Already had a few small, but close calls in a few areas of the state this year ..and it is only the end of Feb.  Will only be headed deeper into our typical dry season as March progresses.

Before the rambling thoughts,  come the forecast thoughts.  Because it's influence starts to have less impact on the weather going forward, leaving out the MJO charts this time around.. 

NMME's thoughts ** A caveat here, considering what " was " predicted by them for the winter, ..and what was actually seen, beyond this corner of the world, a bit more skeptical of what they're suggesting for the next 3 months.. ** 

Me myself ?, think they're under-doing above average heat potential for this part of the U.S., esp for April and May..  Dry as it is now / is likely to stay, + greatly increasing sun angle / insolation helping to quickly melting a majority of whatever snowpack exists in the mountains thru the month ahead = hard to fathom the land not starting to cook early this year.. My thought on this = April will likely be quite hot..  Yes, there could be a couple storms thru the start of March that add a little more snow up there / further north, but ..overall i don't expect some major turn around of the prevailing pattern here next month.

Once Astro. Spring arrives, that's pretty much it for chances of reaching normal / above normal rain and snowfall -wise in AZ ...and most of N.M, S. NV., S. Utah, and S. Cal..

Lead #1:




Lead #2:






Lead #3:





Today's ECMWF Weeklys.. Go out to the start of April.  While not perfect, < My opinion only > they've done a pretty decent job w/ the precip /  temp. trend forecast this winter..  Think they'll continue their " reliable enough to keep an eye on  " trend into spring..


2m Mean temp












Surface Temp













Precip..
















CFSv2 " updated daily thoughts ..Trend is stable to drier each day the precip map is updated.  Available via the " ENSO Powertools " section on Stormsurf..


Current 1-2 and 3-4 week thoughts ( From the CFSv2 )

1 and 2 week:






3 and 4 week:







SST check in from SOTO.. Still pretty warm anomalies offshore of CA / Not exactly " cold " Anoms.  nearshore..  We'll see which direction they head as we get into Spring..





Personal Musings...

** Early heat looks all but certain here.. We'll see if that includes S.Cal, let alone how quickly ..or not N. Cal warms up, esp. in March..

** Spring Rainfall =  Going to be hard to com by here, though i won't completely remove the chance at some " spring showers " at some point between now and mid-  April..  Won't add up to anything though..

** Snowfall..  A little more possible for the rim / far N. AZ, but again, won't add up to much.  Early melt likely, esp here in AZ.  If anyone in the region hangs onto -any- snowpack thru about mi April, it will be the Sierras an far N. Rockies..


** Anticipate fire activity here to ramp up, esp if April ends up as hot as i'm thinking it might.. May / June could be pretty wild ...fire activity wise..

If S. Cal stays dry and temps trend more above normal come April and May, expect fire activity to ramp up out there ...and in New Mexico..

** Just about time to start watching Mexico closely once we reach the end of March..  Mixed signals atm on if the rainy season kicks off on time in S. Mexico or is delayed a little this year.

**  ECMWF Weeklys may be maintaining an " above average temp lean " to their extended forecast thoughts. GEFS ( 00Z / 840Hour runs ) have been a little more mixed ..ushering in some cooler air into CA thru about the start of Astro. Spring..  We'll see..

** First 90F of 2025 is likely to be hit by the middle / end of next week .just over a month ahead of schedule / average..  First 80F high of the year came a month early as well ( Back at the start of Jan )

First 100F high?? ..Possibility it is reached before April 15th..  Would be ahead of schedule too..  We'll see.

** All in all, As far as i can see, sure looks like a HOT and dry spring ahead for state 48 ..and surrounding areas south of a line running from about San Francisco - Central Utah  this year. 

We'll see if that signals a wet summer ahead when looking at what the forecasts might be hinting at the end of April..  Some decent signs out there ..but,  it's still early and not all the info looks quite as great right now. 

Regardless, the clock to " Nuke Season "  is just about to start ticking..   Winter 2025  ..is in the bag..

 

[SailorBold]

All time driest winter here in Abq..  0.12".... and the coldest in 12 years..

 

[SailorBold]

My weather station measured 0.05" since Nov.1st...