Mapping Tool Shows Your City's Possible Climate in 60 Years

[PalmsInBaltimore]

This new Future Urban Climates app from the the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science was just featured in the Los Angeles Times. It shows a prediction of what your city's climate may look like in the year 2080. 

For example, in 2080, the climate in Charles Village, Baltimore will be like....Oil City, Louisiana haha. New York City in 2080 will be analogous to Ola, Arkansas today, apparently.

App is here: https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

Explainer here: https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, PalmsInBaltimore said:

This new Future Urban Climates app from the the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science was just featured in the Los Angeles Times. It shows a prediction of what your city's climate may look like in the year 2080. 

For example, in 2080, the climate in Charles Village, Baltimore will be like....Oil City, Louisiana haha. New York City in 2080 will be analogous to Ola, Arkansas today, apparently.

App is here: https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

Explainer here: https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates

I saw this a few weeks ago and while it might hold some truth,  some of the " assumed " comparisons between places, out here esp,  are highly questionable..  Esp in the " Future Rainfall " category.

A few examples..

Chandler:  ..We're warmer than Rio Verde, a blip on a map community surrounded by open desert, lots of it, near Fountain Hills, up in the foothills N.E. of the Valley.

They do often get a little more rain during the summer ( when it rains ).  Overall, winter rainfall between both places are about the same, though R.V. can get dusted by snow occasionally.  Not gonna happen here,  esp. as winter snowfall here decreases across the west in a warmer era ..  

My pick city for Chandler ..and pretty much everywhere else in the valley, would be some place like Hermosillo. Current climate isn't too far off from them as it is.








Casa Grande:  Hard to say they'll get more summer rainfall when the " comparison " city is in a very dry part of CA ( out near Death Valley ) No way we're flipping from Sonoran Desert ( wet ) to Mojave Desert ( Dry,  ...as Flek )

That area also sees winters that can be a bit cooler than Casa Grande, which will only warm ..as the rest of AZ warms..

My pick city would've been a border city ..say near Sells or Ajo.  Note too they have the " city " listed as Nevada, but the location in CA. 🤔






Tucson:  Dudleyville, the comparison city, runs a touch cooler in winter and ..there ain't a darn thing out there, lol..  Dudleyville gets less rainfall in summer, not more ..so there's no way Tucson would get more ..using Dudleyville as the Comp. city. 

It actually should be the other way around ..Dudleyville's future climate resembling that of the general Tucson area..

Personal pick comp. City for Tucson?  foothill location near Hermosillo, maybe a touch further south east..







Sierra Vista:  While they'll obviously get warmer in the future,  How would Sierra Vista, elv. 4500ft, / Zone 8b, flirting w/ pockets of 9A have a " comp " city in Sonora that is 1.8 -2 zones warmer?, yet Tucson ( 2200ft and already 9B ..and anticipated to only warm further ) doesn't??  Santa Ana, Son. Mex. is also a little drier than Sierra Vista..

Benjamin Hill < Green Circle > , just south of Santa Ana, is about the current northern limit of where you start seeing obvious TDF ( Tropical Deciduous Forest ) flora species.  Some observations of Brahea nitida  just southeast of Santa Ana as well.






As mentioned, there are some cities i've looked at where the comp. city may fit reasonably well, ( places in CA for instance )  while in others, as shown above, ..and others i've looked over in CA,   i have real questions regarding the chosen comparable locations.

As with any of these tools,  while i'm glad to have them, to get a look at the possibilities,  we'll just have to wait and see how close to accurate they may be.. 60 years ...or maybe less,  if things warm faster than anticipated,  ain't that long of a wait.

[PalmsInBaltimore]

Yes, I also had lots of confusion over it. And it would've been nice if the comparison cities weren't all tiny tiny towns for some reason.

I'm not sure why Orlando would be heading towards the climate of Isla Soyaltepec, Oaxaca, but Miami is supposedly going to trend towards the climate of Jizan in...Saudi Arabia? Saying that and including the vegetation type -- I have doubts that in 2080 Orlando will be tropical jungle but just a few hours south in Miami it will turn into desert scrubland. 

The settings feature that lets you overlay a "climate similarity map" helps me understand why they chose the comparison cities they did, but yeah overall not much more than an interesting little tool. And the default is based on an average of five predictions assuming high emissions scenario, so who knows.

What I really want is the opposite of this tool. Let me pick cities with amazing climates today and show me what parts of the world will have that climate in 2080 haha

[Silas_Sancona]

5 hours ago, PalmsInBaltimore said:

Yes, I also had lots of confusion over it. And it would've been nice if the comparison cities weren't all tiny tiny towns for some reason.

I'm not sure why Orlando would be heading towards the climate of Isla Soyaltepec, Oaxaca, but Miami is supposedly going to trend towards the climate of Jizan in...Saudi Arabia? Saying that and including the vegetation type -- I have doubts that in 2080 Orlando will be tropical jungle but just a few hours south in Miami it will turn into desert scrubland. 

The settings feature that lets you overlay a "climate similarity map" helps me understand why they chose the comparison cities they did, but yeah overall not much more than an interesting little tool. And the default is based on an average of five predictions assuming high emissions scenario, so who knows.

What I really want is the opposite of this tool. Let me pick cities with amazing climates today and show me what parts of the world will have that climate in 2080 haha

Confusion over detailed details ..that no map will likely ever nail down 100% aside, ( for now at least ) it is interesting..  Using the " Avrg. and 5 indv. forecast " option " option chips away at a little of the confusion part in regards to some of the cities i'd mentioned..

Agree that it would seem weird that ..As you'd mentioned, Orlando might turn more Tropical while Miami turned into ..an extremely desolate desert climate ..More extreme than here.. ( The map has Mazatlan resembling Saudi Arabia too btw )

While i can see a possibility of Miami drying out a bit, ..maybe resembling the climate of Cuba / some of the Caribbean that have more sharply defined wet / dry seasons,  the suggested extreme seems ...too extreme. ..and heck, lol Miami might be treading a little more water by then, so  🤷🏽‍♂️


As far as good climates getting nicer?  Potentially at least, there's a lot of that ahead for Cen. / N. Cal.. San Francisco getting closer to a climate closer to present day San Diego / Rest of the Bay area resembling the nicer areas of S. Cal..   While S. Cal ( coastal areas ) trend more like Cen./ S. Baja? ..not bad, if one can afford it, and likes that sort of weather.


I remember many trips to Half Moon Bay on days it was in the upper 90s / low 100's in San Jose thinking to myself " What kind of craziness is this where it can be quite warm on one side of a hill, and downright ....frigid ..and misty / gloomy..  here on the coast facing side of the same hill ( ..in Half Moon Bay )  I doubt they'd mind warming up a bit..

Santa Cruz, on one of those rare days in summer when it is warm, ..all the way to the coast,  ..w/ some monsoonal stuff / extra  humidity in the air?   Very similar to what days like that in San Diego can be like atm ...When the marine layer takes a break.

Same idea in San Jose / general South Bay ..Bay area -away from the coast- really   ..Monsoon infused days / evenings during the summers there = fantastic..  Future climate enhancing that a bit more,  plus winters that are milder, than they already are up there?  Perfection, ..Imo of course..

Believe it or not but, get away from San Jose proper and there is still plenty of places to find land, that isn't astronomically priced..

S. AZ would follow the same idea..  Warm Sonoita, Sierra Vista, Patagonia, and/or the Hwy 19 corridor between S. Tucson and Nogales by a zone ..maybe 2 in some spots  and ..That could be a dream locale for anyone who couldn't afford living in CA. / other really expensive areas of the U.S.  Potentially more rainfall down there during the summers, compared to what they see now,  if they trend more like foothill areas to the south in Sonora proper.

One could extend the " nice getting nicer " thought(s)  into any of the Ft. Hill locations in the state, maybe parts of surrounding states, the Plains, etc.. Places i lived in E. KS warming to high end 8b, or just inside zone 9 would be pretty nice ..as long as it didn't also come with the area turning into a desert.

Consequences off such changes aside, don't think folks in Portland or Seattle would mind a future climate that resembles present day San Francisco ...or the Bay Area  either.



 

[SeanK]

23 hours ago, PalmsInBaltimore said:

This new Future Urban Climates app from the the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science was just featured in the Los Angeles Times. It shows a prediction of what your city's climate may look like in the year 2080. 

For example, in 2080, the climate in Charles Village, Baltimore will be like....Oil City, Louisiana haha. New York City in 2080 will be analogous to Ola, Arkansas today, apparently.

App is here: https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

Explainer here: https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates

Seems pretty shaky. I put in Miami, FL and it returned a place in Saudi Arabia. If we're really warming so much, wouldn't Miami resemble Atlantis?

[PalmsInBaltimore]

17 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

As far as good climates getting nicer?  Potentially at least, there's a lot of that ahead for Cen. / N. Cal.. San Francisco getting closer to a climate closer to present day San Diego / Rest of the Bay area resembling the nicer areas of S. Cal..   While S. Cal ( coastal areas ) trend more like Cen./ S. Baja? ..not bad, if one can afford it, and likes that sort of weather.

Good points about places on the Pacific coast and a little inland that are likely to become more like locales further south. Personally speaking, I love Baja weather. You could plop me there right now and I'd be happy. 

 

17 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

I remember many trips to Half Moon Bay on days it was in the upper 90s / low 100's in San Jose thinking to myself " What kind of craziness is this where it can be quite warm on one side of a hill, and downright ....frigid ..and misty / gloomy..  here on the coast facing side of the same hill ( ..in Half Moon Bay )  I doubt they'd mind warming up a bit..

Only been to Half Moon Bay once, on a bright but overcast, beautiful day in May, but yeah the microclimate "craziness" of the entire peninsula is probably a good thing when it comes to warming weather. So many places where it already doesn't get hot at all in the summer, and the sunnier spots could warm up and still be very pleasant, certainly compared to the swampy summer weather that hits the entire East Coast south of Long Island in the summer.

 

17 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

S. AZ would follow the same idea..  Warm Sonoita, Sierra Vista, Patagonia, and/or the Hwy 19 corridor between S. Tucson and Nogales by a zone ..maybe 2 in some spots  and ..That could be a dream locale for anyone who couldn't afford living in CA. / other really expensive areas of the U.S.  Potentially more rainfall down there during the summers, compared to what they see now,  if they trend more like foothill areas to the south in Sonora proper.

One could extend the " nice getting nicer " thought(s)  into any of the Ft. Hill locations in the state, maybe parts of surrounding states, the Plains, etc.. Places i lived in E. KS warming to high end 8b, or just inside zone 9 would be pretty nice ..as long as it didn't also come with the area turning into a desert.

Never been to Arizona, sadly, but it sounds nice currently and in that scenario you laid out. As for the Plains states, I do worry about parts of Kansas turning into a barren and hellishly windy salt flat.

 

17 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Consequences off such changes aside, don't think folks in Portland or Seattle would mind a future climate that resembles present day San Francisco ...or the Bay Area  either.

Seems like they will be getting something closer to Mount Shasta, but yes they're probably fine with that. I'm disappointed you can't see what Eureka and Crescent City "might" be like. I know there aren't many sizeable towns along the Pacific Coast north of the Bay Area, but I don't know why the city options are really sparse in the PNW compared to the options east of the Mississippi. I guess this was put together by the University of Maryland after all, but it's a global map. What is there not enough data from the PNW?

Also, Vancouver isn't set to change much at all, according to this. Meanwhile, Seattle is going to turn into the Central Valley, supposedly. That seems a stretch. 

Places in the Great Basin, too, seem like they're not going to be shifting so drastically (areas around Salt Lake City or Las Vegas not changing much, but maybe because there is no analog if they're going to get really really hot).

 

[PalmsInBaltimore]

10 hours ago, SeanK said:

Seems pretty shaky. I put in Miami, FL and it returned a place in Saudi Arabia. If we're really warming so much, wouldn't Miami resemble Atlantis?

Prepare your gardening snorkels! Or your camel pen...we're not sure!

Jokes aside, it does seem pretty shaky, but I guess they're just sharing their non-biased results based on whatever statistics and equations you have to use to make a 60-year weather forecast. Either way, I thought it was worth sharing since it got play in one of the country's largest media outlets. And it's an interactive map, always fun 

[Chester B]

Mine was kind of boring.  Tamaulipas area of Mexico which isn't all that far away.  Its saying drier in the future basically.

And for my past homes - Portland, Oregon turning into Redding, CA.  Hot, Hot and dry.  I can see it.

And my original home of Toronto turns into Northern Arkansas - no change to the vegetation and the same growing zone even (zone 7).  Just a bit warmer.

[Silas_Sancona]

8 hours ago, PalmsInBaltimore said:

Good points about places on the Pacific coast and a little inland that are likely to become more like locales further south. Personally speaking, I love Baja weather. You could plop me there right now and I'd be happy. 

 

Only been to Half Moon Bay once, on a bright but overcast, beautiful day in May, but yeah the microclimate "craziness" of the entire peninsula is probably a good thing when it comes to warming weather. So many places where it already doesn't get hot at all in the summer, and the sunnier spots could warm up and still be very pleasant, certainly compared to the swampy summer weather that hits the entire East Coast south of Long Island in the summer.

 

Never been to Arizona, sadly, but it sounds nice currently and in that scenario you laid out. As for the Plains states, I do worry about parts of Kansas turning into a barren and hellishly windy salt flat.

 

Seems like they will be getting something closer to Mount Shasta, but yes they're probably fine with that. I'm disappointed you can't see what Eureka and Crescent City "might" be like. I know there aren't many sizeable towns along the Pacific Coast north of the Bay Area, but I don't know why the city options are really sparse in the PNW compared to the options east of the Mississippi. I guess this was put together by the University of Maryland after all, but it's a global map. What is there not enough data from the PNW?

Also, Vancouver isn't set to change much at all, according to this. Meanwhile, Seattle is going to turn into the Central Valley, supposedly. That seems a stretch. 

Places in the Great Basin, too, seem like they're not going to be shifting so drastically (areas around Salt Lake City or Las Vegas not changing much, but maybe because there is no analog if they're going to get really really hot).

 

Like any state, Arizona has it's plus-ses and minus-es..  For as small as the state is, each corner of the state has some truly unforgettable landscapes to offer the observer..  While my favorite part of the state is the southern half, northern half is just as beautiful, ..if you prefer cool and dry ..more Great Basin -like.

Is true that some of the places i mentioned earlier are more out there, miles from the hustle of say Phoenix ..or Tucson, ..and cooler than both areas -currently at least-  they too offer up their own magic.

Tucson is interesting because there, you can see landscapes that represent where we are now currently, climate regime wise,  and pockets ..aka, refuges, of flora that dominated the landscape both during the ice age,  and when things were more tropical, than they are now..

Cool N. facing slope on Mt. Lemmon may contain a pocket of flora you'd see in the N. Rockies,  while a S. facing Canyon down slope on Mt. Lemmon, contains tropical species like Erythrina flabelliformis, Gossypium thurberi, Cochlospermum palmata, Jatropha macrohiza, Tillandsia recurvata, and Manihot angustiloba..

Refuge pockets in the Sky Islands along the AZ. / Mex. border contain an even more diverse array of plants you'd not think could grow within sight of one another, let alone together in AZ..

Can see KS ..the eastern half of the state, drying out as well, just not sure if it ends up as dry as the western half, or looks like some place in say S. Central TX in the future ..AKA drier and warmer,  but with trees like Mesquite / other plants that lean more tropical in origin -but are hardy enough to withstand some cold-  replacing trees like the Oaks, Hickory, etc that can be found in the woodlands out there currently.


As we've discussed,  this Map, like any other,  is fun to tinker around with / think on,  but still lacks some data point / points that maybe the creator(s) didn't factor in? ... Not sure but,  yes,  good starting point  ..but still needs work to capture -more accurately- how things might change in X or Y location, if that is possible.  Something that might improve with time maybe??



Agree that is intriguing why in some areas, many smaller cities are listed, but not in others though maybe the creators went with population density rather than the location itself? .. Corona de Tucson, and Sonoita would fit that assumption..

While the population size of Corona de Tucson is tiny, perhaps, according to the map creators at least, it is close enough to the suburbs of S. Tucson to not include separately ..allowing the user to infer that it's future climate might follow what any listed location closer to Tucson ..or Sauharita  might resemble in the future.. Sauharita is a pretty small " ex-burb " of Tucson as well currently, though both areas are growing in size -relatively quickly- as well.

Sonoita ( and Patagonia ) is another one of those " blips on the map " towns w/ a < currently > tiny population, surrounded by vast expanses of undeveloped land which, in several places,  stretch -nearly untouched-  from just north of the I -10, to the U.S./ Mexico border...  I think they should have included it in the Map,  but again, maybe the creators assume since there really aren't many folks out there, climate- related changes ahead won't really matter to anyone..

Superior, just to my east, is another one of those " Blink once and you miss it " towns i think should have been added as well..

That same case could've been made by the map creators for the smaller towns along the coast from north of the Bay Area to ..roughly- mid - Oregon, along the coast. ..or back east.   We think it's missing valuable data, but maybe they didn't.  Hopefully,  if there is / are any follow up adjustments to this inaugural launch of such a map in the future, those towns will be added,  as they should be.


Aside from maps like this, for me, when i envision whatever deg. of warmth - leaning changes that may lie ahead, i always look to research that has been done on the past ..into X area's Paleo climate..

What did AZ, CA, FL, or CO's climate look like 5, 10, 100K  ....2 or 4Mi years ago?  Obviously, from a tectonic perspective, things have shifted around a bit -to X deg. in any of those time spans, longer ones more so of course, but..

That said, even within the shorter spans of time, there have been some pretty dramatic changes, both locally and beyond ..that can provide hints at how both the landscape ..and weather patterns that effect the landscapes ( ..and everything in them )  might change / how dramatically they might change ..Let alone signs -we can see today- of those shifts starting to occur..

California Buckeye and Digger Pine starting to show up in previously undocumented areas of southern Oregon might be the first hints of that area turning drier and warmer ..much like present day areas around the Central Valley / where i grew up in the Bay Area..

Frost tender / tender- er sps. moving into / successfully reproducing in  areas they might not have been able to survive in a few or several decades ago would be another obvious thing to follow closely..



I've always looked at the  ..Not sure how to phrase it..  but  " imagined climate boundary",   that separates say " leans tropical / hot,  leans temperate / cool " areas of an area's climate  like the water line in a bathtub,  pool, or lake  ....or the tide line at a beach..  ...with the current water line observed representing where that boundary is right now..  Where will it be tonight, tomorrow at the same time, or a few weeks from now.?. Each day / week / month  could represent a future point in time climate- wise.

** One could apply the same idea to ...any... living organism's current climate tolerance threshold(s) / distribution as well..**

Dry area of land / sides of a pool or bathtub  above  the water line?  more temperate / cooler, esp. in winter.  Submerged / Below  the water line?  more tropical / warmer and drier winters / wetter in summer,  ..or all of the above.. 

Located right near the water line?  ..to me,  that could represent an 8b- 9b type climate.. ..In the sense any waves on the water surface might dictate how often that rock / flat chunk of land sitting just below the water surface is exposed above the water ( sub 32F temperatures / long, hot droughts, etc ) ..until the overall water line either falls or rises far enough to put that rock in a more solid climate regime ...If that makes any sense, lol..

While a pool or bathtub may fill or drain pretty evenly on all sides,  the same thing can't be said for the edges of a lake ..or the ebb and flow of the tides at the beach.. There will always be pockets where pools of water remain when the tide rolls out / areas where the water line retreats very quickly  ..exposing most of the surrounding land around that pool, which, as it applies to vegetation types / critters that have a specific climate preference,  could represent a disjunct " refuge " for X plant / animal ..until the prevailing climate it thrived in, say one that is more tropical / aka: below the water line again returns,  ..or dries up ..In the case that the water line recedes completely. 

One could say that Landscape regimes follow that same idea.. When things were wetter in summer / warmer overall ( Say a few feet below the water line ) we had swamps, lush, dry tropical forests,  Crocs. and Iguana roaming the land..

When the Ice age(s) set in < water level dropped  >  and the region became more dominated by winter precip / summers were cooler, flora you see in New Mexico, S. Cal,  and the Great Basin flourished. That is why you can find some of the same plant species here and in the foothills outside of L.A., around Joshua Tree, and /  or San Diego ..or central Colorado / mountains of N. Mexico.

Majority of " Iconic " Sonoran desert flora like Ironwood, Saguaro, Palo Verde and Mesquite ..and even Creosote and Ocotillo, -to some deg at least- retreated well south of the border ..perhaps as far south as central Sinaloa during the height of the last Ice Age ( ..or few ), before rebounding again as winters started to dry / summers started to warm and get wetter  ..that " rising tide " ,  so to say..

Now, it is the stuff that likes it cool / more temperate that is retreating ..uphill..  to escape heat, in all seasons..



While i may not have the degrees in the subject to write papers experts might use,  by looking into the past, it isn't hard to see a plausible outcome looking forward,  ..Here?  that is warmer  ..and potentially wetter,  more so during the summers than in winter.   How much so?  That's a question i don't think anyone will be able to answer 100% perfectly.

Overall, rest of the country ..and world, would follow the same idea, albeit unevenly since the world isn't flat, like the sides of a bath tub / pool...  Warmer climate = Temperate areas shrink while the more tropical belts expand ..both up hill and higher in latitude.. " Tropical " includes desert, and seasonally dry tropical forest / scrub areas..

Equatorial Tropics ..the image many people associate with the word,  are a big question mark..  Do they expand as well? or could we see a climate regime we've yet to experience emerge - as some have suggested could occur?



Overall, i think the biggest -and toughest- to answer question is / are ( ...since we're in a " leans warmer " climate cycle  ) " How quickly does the tide rise "  " ...is it steady ..with the water slowly lapping at the rocks, more and more over time,  until they slip solidly beneath the waves? "

Or,  " Will the water line rise, rapidly, not giving anything living on / around those rocks much time < if any > to move to higher ( and drier ) ground? "  " Is there any ground left for those things that like it drier to move to  on an island in the lake that is quickly slipping below the waves? "

" Does the submerged land stay submerged for awhile, of will the water level rapidly fall as quickly as it rose "?

Guess we'll have to wait and see..

 

[PalmsInBaltimore]

The water line analogy makes sense to me for the invisible boundaries in climates and dominant plants. 

The paleo climates are definitely interesting to consider, too. I've read that sabel minor possibly evolved further north than its current natural range, but then the ice age pushed the range down south. But then you would think they would have sprung back into their former range at some point in the last 10,000 years.

Wow, the Sky Islands sound incredible. I'll have to go down there sometime. Would love to see the transition from desert to alpine meadow

[Silas_Sancona]

On 8/8/2024 at 7:31 AM, PalmsInBaltimore said:

The water line analogy makes sense to me for the invisible boundaries in climates and dominant plants. 

The paleo climates are definitely interesting to consider, too. I've read that sabel minor possibly evolved further north than its current natural range, but then the ice age pushed the range down south. But then you would think they would have sprung back into their former range at some point in the last 10,000 years.

Wow, the Sky Islands sound incredible. I'll have to go down there sometime. Would love to see the transition from desert to alpine meadow

Funny that it took sitting beside a lake in a local park to have that " Ah Ha " moment,  rather than the countless past opportunities for the light to go on regarding that idea, lol..

That's a good question.. Can see the same " why did W or Z not rapidly recolonize X area once Glaciers had retreated during the most recent Ice Age  ..At the same time, maybe some of the animals that could have moved seed around faster either took their time returning to former areas, or maybe the climate just took it's time reaching a point where any seedlings dropped could survive ...long enough to reproduce and set the next step forward into motion. 



It's definitely pretty wild being able to make out the setting sun reflecting off cars driving on some of the roads down in Tucson proper, from certain points up on Mt. Lemmon where you can see the yellow fall foliage of Aspen growing on a hillside above behind you.. 

There's a back road i take pretty often when heading down there that passes below the N. face of the Catalinas ( Oracle / Oracle Junction area )  where you can easily see some of the pine studded ridges near the ski resort up there, and Saguaro, Yuccas, and Mex Fans growing next to homes / businesses, or undeveloped areas along that section of road thtoward Tucson.

While zoomed in, this shot,  from a favorite hiking spot located closer to home than Tucson really puts things into perspective..  I'm sitting atop a tiny, 100ft tall hill, staring south up into the 9K ft top of the Catalinas  42 -ish miles away..  Purple haze in the shot is from a flower i'd taken the picture through.



Note that you can see Saguaro " spears " ..a term used to describe younger Sags. that haven't yet reached the age where they start forming arms  ..and lots of Cholla / Cylindropuntia  ( the lighter, yellow-ish green specks dotting the landscape ) in the foreground,  and  make out the pines atop Lemmon pretty easily ..and possibly a ski slope or two.

 Mountain " shoulder " in the center of the shot is part of Black Mountain, a 5K peak " island " that pops up about midway between my pictured location, roughly 17 miles east of Florence, AZ,  and the Oracle area below that side of the Catalinas.

Another wider angel shot to demonstrate the vastness of that hiking spot..




Madera Canyon is another mind twister.. If you were not familiar with how quickly the vegetation change relates to elevation gained as you head up the canyon, the easy drive from the entrance to a parking lot located at the back of the canyon ..at roughly 5.5Kft would seem flat.

Can easily see parts of Tucson while standing among woodland landscape that might remind you of parts of the Northeast, or parts of CA. from along various spots on the trails up there.  Daring enough to hike up to the top of Mt. Wrightson? ( i need to get my serious hiking legs back before i dare try, lol )  can see many of the mountain islands in that part of the state, and several of the mountain islands on the northern fringe of the Sierra Madre Occidental 40-70 miles away in Mexico.

Get atop any of the higher peaks in the Huachucas? ( Large Sky Island mtn. range south east of where Madera Canyon / Mt. Wrightson sit ) ..or some of the flats on the south / southwest side of the Huachucas?  and you can see mountain tops in Mexico where Jaguar and Ocelot still roam, Orchid Bees and Military Macaw are probably flying past as you gaze out over those peaks..  Wild stuff..

Visit that part of the state mid winter after the area ( below the mountains ..which can see more of course ) gets a rare dusting or 3-5" or so inches of snow one cold morning and you'd never imagine that area of the state is #2 for Hummingbird diversity in the U.S.,  is where Jaguar are still sighted / reported,  let alone that you might be granted the opportunity to hang out with a curious Coati while sitting on a bench after a day long hike ...That actually happened to me on my initial trip to Madera Canyon 2 summers ago.

Unfortunately, my camera battery had died after taking ...several hundred... pictures that day ..so i missed my close encounter with one of these interesting and tropical in origin mammals as it wandered up from a creek nearby to raid a hummingbird feeder hanging about 15ft away over my shoulder behind the bench. Many people present at the time were able to capture the scene w/ their phones while i sat still, slowly turning to face the Coati as passed behind me, and repeatedly swiped at the feeder, dumping half it's contents on itself while drinking from it.

As i mentioned, while every area of the U.S. has some truly amazing and diverse landscapes to see. S. AZ kicks that up a notch ..and isn't something someone sweating through non stop blast furnace heat during a dry summer up here in PHX, who rarely gets away from town,  would imagine existed anywhere nearby.
 

If you haven't, feel free to check out the " Emerald Desert " / Monsoon Magic " thread series i'd put together focused on trips to that part of the state / flora encountered during our Monsoon Season during the wet summer years of 21 and 22.

Aug. -Oct. is the best time to visit for experiencing the Monsoon..  Nov. - May  for visiting the state in general.  Desert areas esp.. 

June and July are of course reserved only for those who can tolerate serious heat. Dry heat? yes, ..but don't let that fool you.. VERY easy to get into trouble if out on a hike a little too long this time of year. 

 

[kinzyjr]

While some of the results are a little out there, I'd have to see this one is at least somewhat believable:

[PalmsInBaltimore]

On 8/10/2024 at 4:28 AM, Silas_Sancona said:

If you haven't, feel free to check out the " Emerald Desert " / Monsoon Magic " thread series i'd put together focused on trips to that part of the state / flora encountered during our Monsoon Season during the wet summer years of 21 and 22.

Beautiful stuff! 

[DTS]

Did the closest city to me

[Aceraceae]

Right off the bat, it's ridiculous that it's saying summers would warm more than winters, in the tropics and near tropics. It's the opposite in real life, winters warming more than summers, and more toward the north pole than in the tropics, and nights warming more than days, with wet locations especially so. 

[Silas_Sancona]

53 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

Right off the bat, it's ridiculous that it's saying summers would warm more than winters, in the tropics and near tropics. It's the opposite in real life, winters warming more than summers, and more toward the north pole than in the tropics, and nights warming more than days, with wet locations especially so. 

 Not here, in the " near " tropics,  ..and numerous parts of the west which are more temperate -currently-...  Days / nights in  Both " main " seasons are warming.. Fact.

PHX. just eclipsed the record of annual 100 / 100+ days ...76, set in 1993.. Which was the same # we experienced last year.   Today will be day # 78 reaching -at least- 100F.

Won't be shocked if this years' grand total reaches 105 / 110+ days by the time  it finally " cools " off sometime in late October ..or November. This winter could stay pretty mild as well.

# of 90 / 90+ deg overnight lows may set an all time record this year as well.



While the map is far from 100% precise,  say San Francisco's current  climate,  both in winter and summer,  ..in 40, 60, or 90, etc years  shifts enough to resemble the current climate in some place in coastal S. Cal, ...areas south of Ventura esp.. / San Diego area   ..days will definitely be warmer, esp. in summer, ...and more so if that shift includes a marked reduction in days where S.F's day to day weather is less influenced by the Marine layer ..which currently helps keep S.F. cool, esp. on days many areas around the bay bake.. 

By how much? ..we'll just have to wait and see,  ..but, summers will definitely be warmer.  ..so that aspect of their thinking, for many areas, makes sense.

Tiny town on the Cen. Plains, like Lawrence KS' s climate shifts to mirror that of some place in far S. OK. near the Red River,  or Cen. TX. in 50 or 75years?  it will also be warmer, in both seasons than it is currently.  Is already a tad warmer than when i'd last lived there a couple decades ago.