Welcome to Arizona!

[aztropic]

Just another week in paradise... 

 

aztropic 

Mesa, Arizona 

[SeanK]

Can always buy a bougie swamp cooler from MistAmerica up in Scottsdale.

[aztropic]

Yes,these predicted temps are accurate. Yesterday set a new all time high for the day at 118F in Phoenix,with a few other Arizona cities even making it to 120+. Surprisingly,most palms seem to tolerate up to 110F with only minor burns in the desert,but anything higher really takes its toll on them - even outright killing the less hardy species like queens...

 

aztropic 

Mesa, Arizona 

[Chester B]

Those daytime highs are something else, but it's the nights that are kind of scary.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

Those daytime highs are something else, but it's the nights that are kind of scary.

Concerning?,  sure. .." Scary "? ..no  ....And that is only if you're living closer to downtown.. 

Further away from downtown you are, cooler the nights are, even this time of year..  ..And you don't have to be up in the mountains either ( Though it is really nice up there atm ).




Helps too if you're in a part of the state where it has been raining.. 




Sonoita is the place to be, although their winter lows can be too chilly..  Small town, so not much out there regardless.. ( Unless you like lots of open space )





 Tucson proper a little to cagey?  but some place like Sonoita or Sierra Vista  is just a touch too cold in winter /  ...to far " out in the sticks "  for one's personal preference?  ...There's a middle ground for that deah'-lemmon.. ( my word for Dilemma )



Not as hot in summer ( which isn't hot at all compared to Phoenix proper to begin with ) and hanging somewhere between upper 9A and lower 9B zone- wise  -for now.. during the winters..  Not too far out in the sticks, but easy to get there for a hike / camping, or  wine tasting ( for those who drink )  ....but also not densely packed.. and is still easy to get to if you want to paint downtown T- town after a wildcats game / hit up any of the great nurseries there  ..and it rains during the summer.


That said, even here in Chandler, where i can see the lights of / planes landing at the airport in downtown over South Mountain, esp. if i walk down to a vacant lot a couple blocks away and look in that direction,  still no 90F lows..   Lows still above normal regardless though..

[80s Kid]

I'm curious if anyone can explain what the typical "setup" looks like for record cold in the desert southwest. I've only lived here a few years and while we had some chilly weather a couple winters ago, the lowest temp I recorded was only 30F. I believe a low pressure system seemed to move down from western Canada and either stall out or even seemed to move slightly westward when it got cold here.

However, I'd like to hear from someone who is more familiar with how cold air can infiltrate Phoenix and surrounding areas since we're usually immune to the polar vortex that wreaks havoc in the central and eastern US. 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, 80s Kid said:

I'm curious if anyone can explain what the typical "setup" looks like for record cold in the desert southwest. I've only lived here a few years and while we had some chilly weather a couple winters ago, the lowest temp I recorded was only 30F. I believe a low pressure system seemed to move down from western Canada and either stall out or even seemed to move slightly westward when it got cold here.

However, I'd like to hear from someone who is more familiar with how cold air can infiltrate Phoenix and surrounding areas since we're usually immune to the polar vortex that wreaks havoc in the central and eastern US. 

Considering how weather generally moves west to east across the country,  you need one  ..or a combo.. of 3 things on a map to bring us " record " cold spells..

 = Deep trough that is parked off the west coast, and oriented in a way where it can move a deep layer of arctic air right down the west coast from Alaska.. 

By deep.. i mean the base of it has to be draped across roughly the same latitude as Mazatlan ..or Puerto Vallarta...  Simply put, WAYYY to or south..



 = Similar,  but the base of it is oriented so that  a similarly deep layer of artic air is able to move  west south west, over the Rockies, from the high plains just east of the mountains up there.. Layer of air, combined with the depth of the trough allows it to get up and over the Rockies.



FYI:

AA = Deep,  Arctic Air pool..

Yellow = location of the base of such a trough..


Overall WX pattern has to be " slow " or stuck long enough that such a trough hangs out over the west long enough that that cold pool ..being shoved west south west from the far N. Plains,  or Alaska..   can sit and build over our region   ..or just isn't scoured away quickly  ..As is usually the case... ( Because the flat as a board terrain east of the Rockies = less resistance to large air mass movements,  compared to all the walls cold air has to get past to reach our area.. ) 

Yes, the Pacific is flat, ..but, even arctic air masses that might move towards us is modified as it moves over it before reaching the west coast,  esp. at our latitude. 

It's only in those rare setups where deep, arctic air can dive right down ..or just east of.. the west coast.. that really cold air can reach us. 

Both of these patterns are what can bring record cold to CA ..and deep into the Pacific slope of N.W. Mexico ( Sonora proper, Sinaloa, etc ) 

These two scenarios are the main 2 that can usher in record cold 

While uncommon, the 3rd setup scenario below can happen ...to a deg. that brings really cold air into our area.  To some extent, there are a few such " spill over " events each winter but they're usually shallow, and usually moderate quickly. 

 Simply,  large, deep arctic air mass being shoved due south, down the high plains, just east of the Rockies,  is deep enough / lingers long enough that it pours over the higher ..but lower than the mountains just to the north.. terrain barrier between Tucson and El Paso.



If such a set up lasts long enough, enough cold air can linger and build after reaching our area = cold mornings  ..until it is scoured out by westerly / southwesterly ( ..and generally milder ) air. 

Daniel Swain ( Weather West ) did a pretty depth-y dive into how these setups can occur awhile back, and just how rare they are, thankfully,  lol.. 

[80s Kid]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Considering how weather generally moves west to east across the country,  you need one  ..or a combo.. of 3 things on a map to bring us " record " cold spells..

 = Deep trough that is parked off the west coast, and oriented in a way where it can move a deep layer of arctic air right down the west coast from Alaska.. 

By deep.. i mean the base of it has to be draped across roughly the same latitude as Mazatlan ..or Puerto Vallarta...  Simply put, WAYYY to or south..



 = Similar,  but the base of it is oriented so that  a similarly deep layer of artic air is able to move  west south west, over the Rockies, from the high plains just east of the mountains up there.. Layer of air, combined with the depth of the trough allows it to get up and over the Rockies.



FYI:

AA = Deep,  Arctic Air pool..

Yellow = location of the base of such a trough..


Overall WX pattern has to be " slow " or stuck long enough that such a trough hangs out over the west long enough that that cold pool ..being shoved west south west from the far N. Plains,  or Alaska..   can sit and build over our region   ..or just isn't scoured away quickly  ..As is usually the case... ( Because the flat as a board terrain east of the Rockies = less resistance to large air mass movements,  compared to all the walls cold air has to get past to reach our area.. ) 

Yes, the Pacific is flat, ..but, even arctic air masses that might move towards us is modified as it moves over it before reaching the west coast,  esp. at our latitude. 

It's only in those rare setups where deep, arctic air can dive right down ..or just east of.. the west coast.. that really cold air can reach us. 

Both of these patterns are what can bring record cold to CA ..and deep into the Pacific slope of N.W. Mexico ( Sonora proper, Sinaloa, etc ) 

These two scenarios are the main 2 that can usher in record cold 

While uncommon, the 3rd setup scenario below can happen ...to a deg. that brings really cold air into our area.  To some extent, there are a few such " spill over " events each winter but they're usually shallow, and usually moderate quickly. 

 Simply,  large, deep arctic air mass being shoved due south, down the high plains, just east of the Rockies,  is deep enough / lingers long enough that it pours over the higher ..but lower than the mountains just to the north.. terrain barrier between Tucson and El Paso.



If such a set up lasts long enough, enough cold air can linger and build after reaching our area = cold mornings  ..until it is scoured out by westerly / southwesterly ( ..and generally milder ) air. 

Daniel Swain ( Weather West ) did a pretty depth-y dive into how these setups can occur awhile back, and just how rare they are, thankfully,  lol.. 

This is great info so thank you for taking the time to explain it all. It does seem like a lot needs to happen to get some real cold air over the southwest (which is great haha).

Generally I'm more concerned with vegetation getting baked by the heat as opposed to freezing temps. I learned the hard way early on that having anything in a pot with no canopy overhead is a big no-no during the summer.

I have family in the northeastern part of Florida so it's always interesting comparing the weather between there and Phoenix Metro. On average it seems like NE Florida would have a slight edge in warmth but that arctic air from Canada is just brutal. 

[80s Kid]

On a different note, I do have a 7-Day weather forecast from July 2023 that is likely hall-of-shame worthy (or however you want to classify it). This was my second summer here and needless to say it was a doozy. I like the heat but this was nuts.

One thing I do enjoy doing is walking around after the sun goes down in the summer. As long as the sun isn't beating down on me I enjoy going for a stroll in the heat. 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, 80s Kid said:

This is great info so thank you for taking the time to explain it all. It does seem like a lot needs to happen to get some real cold air over the southwest (which is great haha).

Generally I'm more concerned with vegetation getting baked by the heat as opposed to freezing temps. I learned the hard way early on that having anything in a pot with no canopy overhead is a big no-no during the summer.

I have family in the northeastern part of Florida so it's always interesting comparing the weather between there and Phoenix Metro. On average it seems like NE Florida would have a slight edge in warmth but that arctic air from Canada is just brutal. 

 

Some people will hymm and haw with me about it but,  without a doubt,  heat here during the summer is THE biggest kill factor for ..pretty much anything...  when compared to what cold i've seen since we moved here in '16,  ..and what damage i noted while roaming the area while attending some plant sales right after a pretty significant cold event ..By Phoenix standards of course,   back in  march of 2013.

yes, that year, some of the Ficus (  microcarpa ..commonly called " nitida " ) planted everywhere here had some burn,  a few,  in the coldest spots that i'd passed through were killed,  but, they ..and most of what Royal Poinciana were around at that time came back fine.  Specimen located by the Police Station / Library in downtown Scottsdale was planted pre -2013 ( from what i understand )  and is still there.. 

Another i've monitored since 16, two blocks from the house, hasn't been all that bothered by the few 28 - 30F mornings i've seen since moving here. 

 Area,  as a whole,  has only grown,  by A LOT..  since 2013.   When i moved here in '16,  there were numerous holes between neighborhoods on the south side of Chandler/ Gilbert,  and  ..esp. out towards Queen Creek.  

Re- visited an area of Q.C.  i'd pass through every day i'd worked out there and didn't recognize anything..  Don't even get me started on the traffic  ..which was bad enough when i worked out there back in '16. 

Formally empty sections of Chandler south / southeast of me?  pretty much all filled in now.. 

While anything is possible, i really think it would take one heck of a cold spell to bring back the sub 20F lows to areas i was told bottomed out at that level  back in the '13 freeze here.. 


You mentioned 2023...  2019 and 2020 were a roast - fest in themselves but,  Summer 2023?  ..That was the first time i saw the Ficus ( nitida / microcarpa )  in the yard burn ..badly..  Not from any cold,  ..but that horrible summer heat..  ...Wasn't the only one to get scorched either.  Several others surrounding a house a couple blocks away were completely killed  ..mature - sized specimens too..  

That summer was the first time i'd heard of " desert " stuff planted in the ground  ..Agave,  younger Yucca,  and /or Cacti..  being killed  ..by the HEAT..  BOTH in people's yards,  and out in the desert..  You'd figure such damage would be restricted to areas where the extra heat created by any heat island were located but,  ..out in habitat?  that was an unexpected, very alarming surprise. 


In '23,  i had potted stuff i keep in bright shade / keep dry and grow in pure grit fry or scald..    BTW, NEVER water cacti ( In pots or the ground ) during the summer once nights are above 80F..  

That said, there is plenty of stuff to choose from  ..planted in the ground esp,  that laughs at the worst of the heat  ..and can look good  ...if you know where to look / what to look for.  

..Obvious effects of our heat is why i mention how important canopy  ..as much as you can comfortably plant on your property,  is..   Esp. if wanting to trial anything that is leaf -tender..  Once you have some,  lists of what plants what you can enjoy in your yard grows by quite a bit,  let alone not burning thru money trying to stay cool yourself.. 

Got acquainted w/ what the heat can do to plants ( and other living things ) right after moving here  ..Can't count how much stuff i lost that first summer,  and more so in '17 after i myself experienced both heat exhaustion and heat stroke.  Since then,  once we get to about late May / early June,  i go into a  " daytime hibernation mode " of sorts  ..until the rains set in  ..if they do at all during a particular summer..  

Up until that summer, i'd never had any issues w/ heat anywhere i've lived  ..Even in FL..  and i'm an " outdoors,  as much as possible " kind of person..

In all honesty, after 10 years of observation, it is very clear that many folks reallllyyy underestimate the effects of dry heat  ..esp. our flavor of it.. 

Yes, " Humid " heat can be uncomfortable..  There were a few days in FL and KS,  specifically before the rains would set in,  where it definitely felt HOT  ..but,  there is Absolutely  no comparison to dry heat  ..specifically,  our dry HEAT,  lol..   

When that " humid heat" got to be a bit much,  it wasn't hard to stay hydrated ..and /or hang out in a shady spot and be fine. 

Having tried,  not sure it is possible to stay hydrated when it is over 105-108 / Nights no lower than the mid 80s ..or 90+,  every day,  for weeks..  and there is no ..or very little.. humidity in the air,  unless it rains.  I swear you can feel any and all moisture getting squeezed out of you when outside on one of our infamously hot summer days, lol.     Heat - related trouble can creep up on w/ out a whisper  ...until you're really in trouble pretty easily..   ..and the after - effects,  once you've crossed that line?  don't just go away like the uneducated / intentionally ignorant of the obvious quarter of people out there seem to think / believe.  

Regardless, i always tell people.. During the summers,  don't push it..  Your health is wayyy more important than anything else.   

And for god ( ...whatever a " god " is to someone ) sake,  stay the F- off the trails, lol..  a day when it is 108 or 110F out is not the time to think about tackling Camelback,  trails up in the Superstitions,  or any of the trails on South Mountain.   Brutal but,  people that choose to hike on such days?,  should be fined no less than $5K for taking that risk and putting those who have to respond in trouble if caught on a closed trail.  " Tough guys ( or girls ) on a trail,  at 3pm,  in 110+F heat? = top candidates for that Darwin award, lol

On that note....

 

1 hour ago, 80s Kid said:

On a different note, I do have a 7-Day weather forecast from July 2023 that is likely hall-of-shame worthy (or however you want to classify it). This was my second summer here and needless to say it was a doozy. I like the heat but this was nuts.

One thing I do enjoy doing is walking around after the sun goes down in the summer. As long as the sun isn't beating down on me I enjoy going for a stroll in the heat. 

 

While i remember 23 ..and the other " horrible " summers..  quite well, 

we can have summers that are  ..just about  perfect..  " perfect "  in the sense that it rains ..reasonably consistently,   July thru September,  which in turn holds back the worst of the heat / cools things off nicely for several hours in the evenings,  esp. away from near / in downtown.. 

2021 ( 2022 and 2018 to a lesser extent ) would be the " best " summers i've experienced since moving here. 

'21 was wet ..and honestly felt very similar to a normal summer in FL  ..or even Hawaii ( Though drier of course )  ..Everything,  here and down toward Tucson and the border   was  green   ..so green that while roaming areas south of Tucson,  the hills  ..and everything else in view down there..  reminded me of what California looks like after a wet winter / early spring..  VERY tropical and very un - Arizona -like..  

As wet as it was, there have been wetter summers than '21 and i'm hoping we'll experience one of those summers soon. 

If / Whenever you have time,  feel free to look through some of my past threads / thread series titled " Monsoon Magic / The Emerald Desert "  to get an idea of what a " good " / wet  summer can look like here.  

Being that storms are a big part of my photography background,  once Monsoon Season arrives,  i'm outside  ..somewhere..  any time there are storms in the area..  Wet summer like 21?  i can chase a storm from more locations ..because there is less chance of getting myself in trouble ..due to the heat,  even after sundown.. 


Bad summer?  spend those looking forward to / hoping for a better summer,  next year,  ..while getting the plants through the worst of the heat, lol.. 

As for our winters?  ..Where else can someone have Sunflowers in full bloom  ..in December and  thru January?   

Someone thinks that is a lie? / what " cold " we see would kill them?  ..Got more than enough pictures of " Winter Sunflowers " to quickly dissolve that myth.  

Summers may be brutal sometimes  but,  winters here rarely come close to " cold ".    Heck, lol,  looking over 10 day forecasts from WX Underground over the past few weeks, our winter has ran pretty close to what winters are like in Hermosillo,  Mazatlan,  ..and /or  La Paz / Todo Santos  located near Cabo San Lucas in Baja Sur. 

Super cold,  right? 🤣

 

[80s Kid]

The forecast over the next couple of weeks for the Phoenix area is looking sweet!!! I don't think I could ask for better weather this time of the year.

 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

6 minutes ago, 80s Kid said:

The forecast over the next couple of weeks for the Phoenix area is looking sweet!!! I don't think I could ask for better weather this time of the year.

 

 

Yep, definitely looking QUITE nice as we start Feb.... 

How our 10 day  is looking,   as of 11:00AM.. 




We'll see if -any- of their current thoughts hold  but,.....  If some of the suggestions being thrown around by many individual runs of the AI - based WX model forecasts,  ..and some runs of the EPS / ECMWF land -somewhere- in the ballpark,  we could be looking at a few days in the 81 - 85F range right around the 9th or 10th,  ...if not before then..

Doesn't happen? no worries..  Pretty sure it will be hard to find anyone here complaining about a stretch of daytime highs in the 75 -81F range for the next week ..or more... 



For the heck of it comparison.. How things are looking to our south for the same time period.

As nice as it would be,  while our mornings probably won't be as mild,  esp. compared to the coastal locale spots, .. current 10 day forecasts between here and down there aren't all that dramatically different either.  Have been eerily similar all winter too.  Don't think Puerto Vallarta has seen a sub - mid 50s morning low yet this winter.  

Hermosillo,  the closest mirror < in Mexico > to Phoenix  climate - wise. 



Guaymas / San Carlos: 




Mazatlan:



P.V.



Cabo:




Todo Santos..  Warmer down there than up here obviously  but,   being right next to the still mild Pacific,  they stay a touch cooler, overall,  than either Cabo or La Paz. 




La Paz:

[80s Kid]

It bottomed out at 40F this morning here so didn't even make it into the 30s. If we could start getting lows back at 50F+ on a consistent basis that would be great but asking a lot for this time of the year. 

[Silas_Sancona]

9 minutes ago, 80s Kid said:

It bottomed out at 40F this morning here so didn't even make it into the 30s. If we could start getting lows back at 50F+ on a consistent basis that would be great but asking a lot for this time of the year. 

Looking at Wx U's forecast, looks like the neighborhood bottomed out at 38 / was in the 37 -38F range from about 4AM until roughly 8:30AM.. Was already in the low 40s when i was up around that time, so..  Not bad.. No frosty stuff anywhere.


Agree, sustained 50+ lows are tougher this time of year,  ..but it has happened.  If i remember correctly,  much of Feb. 2018 stayed above 45, only bottoming out in the high 30s for a couple days toward the tail end of the month that year.  Lows during March of '18 were mainly in the mid/ upper 40s lower 50s..  *** Time and Date Past Weather data

2021 was another year where Feb. stayed pretty mild.. 39 on 4 out of 28 days/ above 41 on all the others.. March of '21 featured 2 days out of 31 below 40F ...Also per Time and Date past Weather data..



As long as the forecasts don't change -dramatically-  a few 50+ mornings seem likely,  at least by weeks' end,  esp. if there is any sort of cloud cover around during the overnight hours to hold temps up a few degs  and esp. anywhere w/ some elevation outside of downtown where the UHI influences things a bit. 

By the same token, cloud cover at lingers into the day might also hold afternoon highs down a little, depending on how thick they are / timing ( More ..or thicker... cloud cover in the AM hours = less time for optimal heating = lower " top out " highs.. ) 

That said, days are getting longer,  amount of time it takes for the sun to heat everything up, once the sun is up,  is starting to shorten ..and our daily averages are only rising  so,  ..any dips we might see over the next few weeks aside, if we do,  it's only upward from here. 

Dry conditions,  that aren't expected to change much ..if at all... anytime soon,  just means the land can heat up faster on any days thick cloud cover isn't interfering with insolation..  

Today has been a good example.. Earlier forecast high for today kept bouncing between 67 and 69 with some clouds around..

Bouncing around due to the nagging, light northerly breeze atm yes,  but,  closest station has hit 70 several times over the past 2 hours under less cloud cover than had been forecast earlier..  A little more of that moving in from the west may cut temps back thru the rest of the afternoon but, ..  70 was what was forecast for today back on ..Saturday?.. i think..   ..so, we're already  starting off the week on the right track..

Back at 69 again now..

We'll see of course,  but, with no clouds forecast to be around / any breeziness staying below 10mph,  tomorrows' currently forecast high of 72 or 3 could end up 2 to 4 degs warmer.

Plants are happy so ..all is well 

 

[80s Kid]

This is pretty hilarious for this time of the year.