Florida spared hurricanes this year!

[happ]

It was an active Atlantic hurricane season but the worst was confined to Mexico.  Generally minor tropical storms across the Gulf as well.  Aside from Brownsville, Texas was wet but nothing approaching hurricane force.

This is very good news for palm aficionados' across Florida  

[SubTropicRay]

Two years in a row now.  Pretty soon, it'll be like it used to be....one storm per decade.

[ruskinPalms]

Is that how it used to be? I almost expect a storm making landfall within 100 miles from me every year.

[SubTropicRay]

Yes Bill, hurricanes were always someone elses problem growing up.  Hopefully, we've done our time for a few decades.  As long as the winters don't revert to how they used to be, we'll be OK.

[_Keith]

Same in Louisiana.  Something of note maybe once a decade, and something major like Katrina/Rita maybe every 20 years.   Two Cat 5s in the Gulf off of Louisiana in the same year, much less within 8 weeks of each other, I guess is something like a 500 year event.

[amazondk]

Has the media made a big deal about the lack of major hurricanes and that this is part of any climate change trend?  

dk

[steve 9atx]

Don

You're right, we didn't hear anything about it!  Of course, you know that either fewer hurricanes or more hurricanes are each of themselves proof of anthropogenic climate change.

Steve

[happ]

Experts puzzle over quiet '07 storm season

By ANNA SCOTT

anna.scott@heraldtribune.com

As forecasters prepare for the season's end on Friday, they are

pondering a new climate puzzle.

The Atlantic basin experienced nearly as many named storms as in the

record 2004 season.   And yet, at least for the coastal United States,

it was one of the quietest seasons in three decades.

Half of the 14 storms lasted one day or less -- defying all predictions.

And the majority, with the exception of twin Category-5s that barreled

south in the Caribbean, spun away from land.

With the average storm stretching a mere 2.3 days, this year marked the

lowest ratio of storm days per storm since 1977.

"We had two Category 5 hurricanes and 12 really kind of pathetic

storms,"  said Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University's forecasting

team.

"They were short-lived and didn't do very much.  That pretty much sums

up the season."

An unexpected pocket of heavy wind shear tore apart many of the storms

before they could become hurricanes.   But forecasters have yet to

figure out why the shear increased -- especially in a year when a La

Niña pattern was expected to break it up.

One of the leading theories at the Climate Prediction Center in Miami is

that unusual monsoon patterns in the eastern part of the world had

something to do with it.   The idea is that a weakened La Niña could

be linked to cooler temperatures and heavier rains in the east, but

scientists are still in the early stages of their investigation.

"This was a situation where a lot of things were favorable for tropical

cyclones to form,"  said Gerry Bell.   "Something else was going on in

the climate."

Wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean grew fierce in early September,

tearing apart tropical storms Melissa, Ingrid, and Jerry, and even

Hurricane Karen, before they approached land.   Hurricane Humberto,

which intensified faster than any other storm on record, lasted only

about six hours and quickly turned into a tropical depression over

Texas.

Shear refers to the way wind blows at different speeds and in different

directions at various levels in the atmosphere.

Tropical storms can only strengthen if the shear is light, meaning the

winds are fairly uniform with increasing height, allowing the delicate

eye-structure to develop.

"Especially in the eastern Atlantic, where the major hurricanes tend to

form, they just got sheared to death,"  Klotzbach said.

Even so, September brought eight named storms -- the most of any

September on record.

Forecasters predicted an above-average season -- the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration said there was an 85 percent chance --

but it turned out to be  "near normal."

Of the 14 named storms, six were

hurricanes, including Karen, which was

upgraded after post-storm reanalysis by

the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters expected up to 17 named storms and around 8 hurricanes.

For the second year in a row, hurricanes avoided Florida, setting off

more concern among emergency management officials that residents will be

less likely to prepare next year.

The season has also served as a reminder that forecasting is an

uncertain science.

Scientists were initially driven by belief that this is a high-hurricane

era, and by the expected development of La Niña, which is supposed to

make the environment friendly to hurricanes.

The high wind shear was not the only surprise.   Forecasters downgraded

predictions midseason after realizing that

sea-surface temperatures were cooler in

the eastern Atlantic than they thought.   At about 85 degrees, the water

was still about 2.5 degrees cooler than in 2005 -- a slight difference

thought to play a significant role in formation of hurricanes, which

feed off warm water.

And they still have not figured out what happened in October.   Usually

the month brings storms out of the Caribbean, but only one came:

Hurricane Noel, which lasted a single day.

Last year, forecasters were caught off

guard by El Niño, which creates an

unfavorable climate for hurricanes, and

clouds of African dust thought to be either

suffocating hurricanes or blocking the sun and forcing the water to

cool.

The National Hurricane Center will release a verification of its

forecast Thursday.   The Colorado State University team released its

summary Tuesday.

"Every year you pick up something new,"  Klotzbach said.   "When you

have a bad forecast you, learn even more."

Almost 200 people died this year from Atlantic basin hurricanes, mostly

during Hurricanes Felix and Dean.   At least 133 deaths were reported

from Hurricane Felix, which hit Nicaragua and Honduras in September.

Hurricane Dean killed 42 people and caused an estimated $4 billion in

damage.   Hurricane Lorenzo caused five deaths in Mexico.

The most deadly hurricane to hit the U.S. coast this year was Hurricane

Humberto, which killed one person and cost an estimated $500 million in

damage when it hit Texas.   Tropical Storm Erin, whose strong winds and

heavy rain across Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma, is thought to have

killed 18 people.

[Al in Kona]

This is all very interesting but I personally have little faith in their ability to forecast a hurricane season ahead of time.  After all, they have a 50% chance of being right regardless, right?  

What do the rest of you think about long range forecasting?

[Exotic Life]

Yes, you're right Florida is spared for 2 years now for the big storms... Everytiem the storm has choose a path in a other direction... so good news for the people from florida.

Robbin

[SubTropicRay]

Hi Robbin,

If you live in Tampa, you've been spared for 86 years straight.   The last direct hit here was in 1921.  

Ray

[_Keith]

I read up recently on weather forecast.  3 days ahead they are pretty accurate, 5 days ahead OK, 10 days ahead as most forecast is about as accurate as just looking at averages for previous years.  So, predicting a year ahead or more on Hurricanes, what do you think?   Not that they are trying, putting supercomputers to work and all that, but weather is inherantly unpredictable.  I have been in the tech biz for the last 30 years.  I have little Keithisms that I live by and one of them is never try to turn an art into a science.  IMHO weather is more art than science.

[amazondk]

La Niña is definately affecting Brazil.  Here where I am it is impossible to have a hurricane, for one I am 2,000 kms from the ocean and 2. I am at 3 degrees south latitude where hurricanes can not form or travel.  But, it sure has rained a lot this year so far.

dk