Trends in Polar Vortex and Polar Jet Stream Position w/ Climate Change

[ChrisA]

Hello PalmTalk members,

 

As all of us in the Central/Eastern US are aware, our dreams of trouble-free palm growing and increasing of climate zones designations, have been more an more confounded by freak and very severe cold weather plummeting all the way to the Gulf Coast, often annihilating cold sensitive palms in these regions.  I happened to have the below video (posted by PBS Terra) recommended to me in my YouTube feed and thought that this was valuable to share as it makes a lot of sense in what the reality has been in spite of recent zone jumps being published by the USDA.

Hope you find this as interesting as I did. 

 

 

[flplantguy]

I saw this on the blog at yale climate connections but didnt view it yet. I'll have to later since its been shared in multiple places now. Its a question i have being in my part of Florida: which is stronger, the wamer oceans nearby or the polar vortex?  The past few events have not been the same as the 80s here so im thinking its changing, but like anyone on here will say all it takes is one.  The warmer weather between is more concerning, like cherry blossoms early and lost peaches due to late cold after warm spells in winter.

[Ivanos1982]

26 minutes ago, ChrisA said:

Hello PalmTalk members,

 

As all of us in the Central/Eastern US are aware, our dreams of trouble-free palm growing and increasing of climate zones designations, have been more an more confounded by freak and very severe cold weather plummeting all the way to the Gulf Coast, often annihilating cold sensitive palms in these regions.  I happened to have the below video (posted by PBS Terra) recommended to me in my YouTube feed and thought that this was valuable to share as it makes a lot of sense in what the reality has been in spite of recent zone jumps being published by the USDA.

Hope you find this as interesting as I did. 

 

 

I really like the clips from this channel. Very informative and easy to understand.

[Silas_Sancona]

Vid. is   and explains the idea pretty well..

Been a fan of Judah Cohen's work for over a decade and find the info he shares regarding his research to be as reliable as it can be when it comes to a subject with infinite variables that will never be 100% certain..

Roll your eyes?  I dare anyone to accurately predict the weather / climate  20, or 2000 years from now.  Remember, you have to be 100 ...no, 150% correct.   Absolutely no room for mistakes -of any kind.

Despite what some folks assume, it makes perfect sense -to me- that as things get warmer, esp the Arctic, overall,  at a faster pace compared to other parts of the globe,  there will be a period of time when the weather in the mid latitudes gets ....weird...  as everything that influences day to day weather ...and longer term climate ( ..Remember, the two are NOT  the same thing.  Nor is Earth flat )  tries to find a new balance..

Start changing the temperature pattern(s) globally = more potential for a wavier jet stream at times / Polar vortex that can be more unstable at times,  - for a time.

More so during winter, Start shoving more warm air into a cold place,  cold air hangin' out there has to go somewhere ...It doesn't just  disappear, esp. if the ocean in that cold place is still cold.  For a time ..until the warmer air has won out -if it does... you'll have these episodes each winter where ..While the overall global signal may slowly  be getting warmer,  there is still plenty of cold air that builds up over the N. Pole each winter that ..at times, a pocket or really cold air will get knocked south as a pocket of fairly warm air tries to invade and establish itself in the Arctic.. Current geographical arrangement of the Eastern U.S. is just ideally " built " for some of those ..more extreme - but brief- cold spells to slip south toward the Equator..  A roll of the dice, each winter, really..

Eventually, ..if this happens, once enough warm air has done it's job to warm the Arctic across an entire year / many decades,  jet stream may not be as wavy / Polar Vortex finds some sort of new equilibrium and what cold is up there ..really ain't all that cold..

Some things i'm very curious about is / any on going, newer studies looking into...

** How long could such a transition period endure before ..say the overall warmer - leaning signal wins out ..IE:  say the coldest it gets in the Arctic, thru the dead of winter up there, in say 200 or 2600 years  is no longer any colder than say 0 to 5F

..If that occurred,.*** Assumption of course ***  the " coldest " anyone back east ..or across the entire country really might see  might be the mid 20s.. Areas south of say ..Roughly northernmost Iowa  ..or Kansas.. might not ever see temps below 32F ..or 25F -at the coldest..

An ice free / nearly ice free, 90% of the year,  Arctic Ocean that is several deg. warmer than present could allow that to occur.  Remember, Alligators once roamed parts of the Arctic..

Obviously, an ice free Arctic Ocean might lead to other " colder " outcomes too, at least briefly ..as long as the rest of the world is continuing to warm...  If that occurred,  how long would that last?

** How will things behave during the next, prolonged warm phase of the PDO?  ..Have an itch the current cool phase we should be ending soon ( next 5-9 years or so, maybe sooner ) has been kind of muting some effects of overall warming..

Oceans are a tad, to put it lightly,  warmer now than during the last warm phase between the late 70s -late 90s.. 

My random assumption is if the next warm PDO is quite warm, compared to most / all of the others noted in the past,  some very interesting weather could lie ahead..  Esp. if other longer term patterns that influence the ocean are warmer as well..  It's already interesting that during a COLD PDO cycle, California has had ...a couple brushes w/ strong Tropical storm events.. What could a " HOT " PDO bring???

Again .. spitball random assumptions.. Don't get weird.


Overall, agree w/ @flplantguy that while the brief nasty cold spells are a bit of a sledge hammer to some people's plant growing ideals in less than ideal locations..  To put it bluntly ..those who get gloomy when a freak cold spell kills a Royal or Coconut in New Orleans -where it hasn't been warm enough for either for ..a while..  need to be focused on the bigger ..much more important    picture..

Adding to the points he made regarding freak freezes that can knock out entire crops of Peaches or Apples,  declining -reliable- snowfall / moisture contained in that snow / longer ..and hotter droughts, warmer / drier winters, spring ..and / or summer extreme floods in the breadbasket regions of the Midwest / Plains / West will really be a bummer if they get much worse.. 

Add to that similar bad  changing climate effects on important ag areas world-wide, esp. in Mexico and S. America ...Where a lot of our winter season crops comes from  and .....well  Complaining about a freak freeze killed palm / many -that aren't adapted to handle such extremes anyway,  or that it might drop to 40F for a night,  in February   ....will be the least of anyone's real concern.

 

[flplantguy]

A sobering thought and analysis @Silas_Sancona  I hope we figure it out but im scared we never will.  My other hope is adjusting climates for agriculture could save things for humans, but that does nothing for thousand year old trees that can't keep up.

[Silas_Sancona]

17 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

A sobering thought and analysis @Silas_Sancona  I hope we figure it out but im scared we never will.  My other hope is adjusting climates for agriculture could save things for humans, but that does nothing for thousand year old trees that can't keep up.

I get a little weary about some things occasionally but that's about it..   Humans, ..when they think..   can ...and have..  done great things.  No, we'll never be able to outsmart the limits of our world  ..we can make better choices though.

While i don't want to drag this thread into a huge, long drawn out thought, A quick look at AZ reveals some interesting challenges ..and opportunities..

Interestingly enough, Agriculture / related pursuits here in AZ is a good example of some complex and weird contradictions ...caused by ....Climate...

 Cotton, one of the biggest crops grown here is one building block that was en grained into the state's early identity  ..Is one of the 5 C's ..( Cotton, Copper,  Climate,  Cattle, and Citrus )  It also consumes a ton of water ...As does Alfalfa.  Both shouldn't be grown here any longer.  Cotton's days are numbered, and widespread Alfalfa cultivation may disappear pretty quickly, esp. now that our current gov. ax-ed the contracts of some foreign owned Ag companies who have been growing the stuff ..to send overseas, where they banned Alfalfa cultivation, due to ..Drought..  ...using all the water they wanted, while leaving little water for the people who live here.. People were pretty p ---d once the cat was out of the bag regarding what was happening.


Copper is another conundrum.. Yes, it is needed for progress in more climate friendly pursuits, even i know this, lol.. but..  accessing what is " supposedly " needed should start with massive recycling campaigns, not simply allowing more mining corps. foreign esp.. to create as many new moon craters in the mountains as they'd like to.

Once you've seen what a copper mine can do to the land, let alone talk to people living down wind of them, the negative effects of extraction can be pretty sobering.

As technology rich as the area is ( .. Biggest Intel campus in ..the .U.S.? -at least??  )  is a few blocks away from the house, and all sorts of new tech- related business developments are being built / being planned here.  Add in top-of-the-line  A.S.U. and U. of A. research facilities, and  there may come a time -perhaps sooner rather than later-  when something better replaces a large % 'age of Copper in many ( or all )  green -angled technological pursuits. 

Solar is " ok " at this point in time ..even i realize this,  but,  i know it will only get better ..if we're compelled enough to get there. 

Think about how quickly we leaped from flimsy, Floppy Disks and Cassette tapes / 8 -tracks,  to MP3's / Micro SD cards, etc " advanced " means of storing information..

Cars? maybe pursuing engines that essentially run on water, needing only 1/2 a gallon of gas to get 150-200MPG, but also have battery capacity ( to extend to 400+ miles per gallon ) should be intensely pursued, rather than just fully electric EV's  ..if it isn't already.. Not an engineer, so this is way outside my orbit, lol..

Cattle?.. more and more research is showing that letting them roam where ever, when ever is doing more harm to the land, which then is more susceptible to environmental change - related stresses ..  Get rid of them all? ..no, even if i won't ever touch beef..  Consume less?  sure.. Don't know how true it is but  Bison is supposedly a better " red " meat protein source, and are more adaptable.

Read an article yesterday related to developing " new " Cattle that are both better milk producers, and better adapted to climate extremes. ..So it appears there is progress there..

Not opposed to insect Protein sources either ..as long as they are safe for consumption. Market for that protein source is already growing quite a bit.

Most people seem to forget that the FDA allows a certain amount of ground up " insect parts " in a lot of our food ..So yes, be grossed out but,  yerr'  eatin' bugs in those Doritos,  Michael      ...A play on a famous movie quote. 

 Bigger  Ag crop interests?   Instead of continuing to cultivate water intensive crops,  grow Mesquite ( Native sps esp. ) / Palo Verde and Ironwood, which all produce nutrient rich seeds ( Mesquite Syrup / Honey / Tortilla are fantastic )..

Grow ..and continue the development of heat / drought tolerant.. dry land crops like Tepary Beans, Corn, Squashes, etc. / other regionally native relatives with potential.  ...As well as " tropical " stuff that tolerates heat and drought that might have struggled here when winters were cooler..

While it does face it's own threats in a warmer world, Citrus is probably the most resilient crop grown here currently..


Here, and in many areas, one could ( should ) combine Solar fields and cultivation of certain crops that need some shade. 

Obviously, there's many ..many more things i could add, but don't need to..



..In a nutshell, there is much hope,  if people want to progress forward toward a more balanced outcome..   If not ..We'll, ...ya'  did it to yourselves, humans. 

Need food / clean air / water   ..Don't need  an expensive car ..or 3,  the latest Phone -whatever, ..or a 3K Sqft house  to be happy  and  healthy.

 

[Foxpalms]

The Jetstream seems very changeable and more extreme here in Europe too with an unusually high amount of polar vortexes recently. However the latter also happens where it goes from air from the artic straight to air from northern Africa.

Air coming from 74N then 4 days later from 28N...

Edited March 21, 2024 by Foxpalms