Polar Vortex

[Xenon]

39 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

Here is my forecast ❄️? 
 

so far my king palms have not shown any damage from temps below 30° (3X) this winter @Xenon should I protect them from this event tho ? Alexandre double trunk seed grown 3 and a half years old . \purpurea I brought back from homestead Fl last March. 

For those numbers no, assuming they are already fairly protected by canopy/structure. 

I'm not making any decisions until Friday, the numbers are jumping 5-10 degrees up and down by the hour. What a nail-biter 😄

[ChrisA]

Today’s update. Wunderground and Accuweather both trending colder since yesterday and with the cold enduring longer. Apple Weather and NWS fairly similar to yesterday. 
 

 

[ChrisA]

@Robert Cade Ross, I’d recommend following a few different forecasters. Wunderground has Manvel way colder. I’m afraid my Apple weather is underplaying how far south the arctic air will push. The forecast will keep changing throughout the day and until and even while it’s happening. I’m going to compare back after I’ve go actual numbers for San Antonio versus which forecast called it and how far back it got it, if any are accurate.

 

[MarcusH]

NWS lowered the temperature to 19f for Monday.  That's 8b right there . We're going to get hit . Not the worst I've seen but it will definitely cause a lot of palms to defoliate this time including my Robusta.  

[PAPalmtrees]

OK last night I recorded. 0f At my one weather station probably about 200 feet out in the yard. 1.6f At my one temperature sensor By one of my palms. 5.6f  By the house. 

[PAPalmtrees]

This is what next weeks forecast is looking like I just Want a normal winter😭

[Chester B]

6 hours ago, MarcusH said:

NWS lowered the temperature to 19f for Monday.  That's 8b right there . We're going to get hit . Not the worst I've seen but it will definitely cause a lot of palms to defoliate this time including my Robusta.  

Sure its going to be 19F but if we get that freezing rain, that is so much worse.

[ChrisA]

More forecasts getting into alignment that we will drop into the upper teens. Could it go lower? Sure! All days show above freezing, however if clouds persist I would count the temp staying sub 30F. Added a screen shot from NWS showing chance of at least 1/10” of freezing rain at 18%. Chance of greater than 1/4” at 2%.

Good luck everyone! We’re going to need it!

[ChrisA]

Oh, and here is a photo of the Queens in the neighborhood, soon to be ex-Queens. Poor neighbors picked the wrong decade to plant them. I know the feeling!

[Xenon]

18 minutes ago, ChrisA said:

Oh, and here is a photo of the Queens in the neighborhood, soon to be ex-Queens. Poor neighbors picked the wrong decade to plant them. I know the feeling!

 

Too much schadenfreude! I had two out of three newly planted queens survive 19F last year. Your forecast looks pretty similar to mine. 

#noprotection 😆

[Palmerr]

Watch out yalll! Like i said in another post this very.. weird. i have never seen anything THIS bad on models before but -20F for huntsville AL is insane. prob wont be -20 ofc but s a signal its going to be cold. just watch your forecasts and be prepared to act accordingly. The worst will be in the cumberland Plateau. This is a MODEL RUN a COMPUTER. it could be 6F 1F -2F -80F its a model run. which is trending upward thankfully. But still. its a signal it will be R E A L L Y cold. i have been in weather watching models for 7 years and have never seen a model run like this. 

[PAPalmtrees]

12 minutes ago, Palmerr said:

Watch out yalll! Like i said in another post this very.. weird. i have never seen anything THIS bad on models before but -20F for huntsville AL is insane. prob wont be -20 ofc but s a signal its going to be cold. just watch your forecasts and be prepared to act accordingly. The worst will be in the cumberland Plateau. This is a MODEL RUN a COMPUTER. it could be 6F 1F -2F -80F its a model run. which is trending upward thankfully. But still. its a signal it will be R E A L L Y cold. i have been in weather watching models for 7 years and have never seen a model run like this. 

I highly doubt it will be that cold in some of those places but I just wish we would have a normal winter. Besides the point it will still be very cold and everyone needs to be prepared plant wise and safety wise

[ChrisA]

@Xenon I’m not taking any delight in someone else’s pain, much more aligned with mitfühlen.  All I know is that at a low of 21 my Queen Palm last year spear pulled and rotted. Yes the fronds were not damaged, yay!

[MarcusH]

7 hours ago, Chester B said:

Sure its going to be 19F but if we get that freezing rain, that is so much worse.

I'll prepare for the worst case scenario , mentally.  The only thing I'm going to do is throw some frost cloth over my agaves. Everything else is going through the cold butt naked . 8b winter for us again.  

Freezing rain in the forecast as well lol. San Antonio gets hammered . 

[Palmerr]

Watch this guy yall, he is the best Weatherman. Me approved haha. He’s posting twice a day which has never happened. This ice storm will be insane. With some of these places getting insane ice storms they have never had before. 2 inches of ice is Insane! He’s very conservative in his forecasts an doesn’t like to go crazy with forecasts which is what makes him very good!
 

 

[Palmerr]

5 hours ago, PAPalmtrees said:

I highly doubt it will be that cold in some of those places but I just wish we would have a normal winter. Besides the point it will still be very cold and everyone needs to be prepared plant wise and safety wise

Ye like I said models are already uptrending in temp I haven’t checked but should be warmer now. But forecasts have definitely continued to drop into the negatives even though model runs are uptrending away from those.. ridiculous temps.

[PAPalmtrees]

9 minutes ago, Palmerr said:

Watch this guy yall, he is the best Weatherman. Me approved haha. He’s posting twice a day which has never happened. This ice storm will be insane. With some of these places getting insane ice storms they have never had before. 2 inches of ice is Insane! He’s very conservative in his forecasts an doesn’t like to go crazy with forecasts which is what makes him very good!
 

 

I like watching him and max velocity weather they seem to be the some of the best ones on the Internet

[MarcusH]

14 minutes ago, Palmerr said:

Watch this guy yall, he is the best Weatherman. Me approved haha. He’s posting twice a day which has never happened. This ice storm will be insane. With some of these places getting insane ice storms they have never had before. 2 inches of ice is Insane! He’s very conservative in his forecasts an doesn’t like to go crazy with forecasts which is what makes him very good!
 

 

I subscribed to him a long time ago. Just missing that "YA,LL O METER " lol

[HudsonBill]

I can't stand that guy.  Mitch west weather is the best he doesn't hype.

[ChrisA]

I used to watch Ryan Hall Y’all.  Lately have been enjoying Weather with Travis.  He really goes through all the models and trends from one day or one run to another.  He’s very comprehensive and conservative in his interpretation of the forecasts. He used to be a TV weatherman in WV. Highly recommend!

[Palmerr]

17 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

I can't stand that guy.  Mitch west weather is the best he doesn't hype.

He actually doesn’t. Trust me I’m on his server on discord he and all of us are very conservative in forecasting. He can act like hes hyping but he only hypes safety and stuff like that. NOT forecasts.

[Palmerr]

Fun fact: Ryan Hall lives in Pikeville KY not far from me and also used to be a TV weatherman.

[MarcusH]

24 minutes ago, Palmerr said:

He actually doesn’t. Trust me I’m on his server on discord he and all of us are very conservative in forecasting. He can act like hes hyping but he only hypes safety and stuff like that. NOT forecasts.

I agree . He might sound like that he's hyping but I think he's just trying to get the message out there loud and clear when it comes to potential hazards which should be taking seriously anyway. 

[PAPalmtrees]

just watch this video some of these snow totals are crazy! 

 

Also look how much of the US are in Winter storm warnings crazy!!!

[Sabal_Louisiana]

Freezing in South Florida at the end of the month??

Nah. but I think the next surge of arctic air around that time might be even worse than the one this weekend - especially for most locations east of Texas.

 

[MarcusH]

1 hour ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

Freezing in South Florida at the end of the month??

Nah. but I think the next surge of arctic air around that time might be even worse than the one this weekend - especially for most locations east of Texas.

 

We hope that's not going to be the case,  but possible.  What bothers me with Texas climate is that almost every time a severe artic blast rolls in , the days before the event, temperatures are normally above average. Just pure stress to all of the palms. 

So far my lows are predicted anywhere between 17f to 21f . What great outlook.  Every year the same nightmare.  

[Palmerr]

2 hours ago, PAPalmtrees said:

just watch this video some of these snow totals are crazy! 

 

Also look how much of the US are in Winter storm warnings crazy!!!

I do still like Max Velocity, I mean.. Ryan and Max are friends lol. Think I just prefer Ryan. But yeah that’s correct. NBM (National Blend of ‘Models is amazing for right now.

[PAPalmtrees]

1 minute ago, Palmerr said:

I do still like Max Velocity, I mean.. Ryan and Max are friends lol. Think I just prefer Ryan. But yeah that’s correct. NBM (National Blend of ‘Models is amazing for right now.

I prefer Max a little bit more but I watch both of them and they're both very good

[Palmerr]

Significantly below avg across the central and eastern USA. (Well the percent chance of it being below avg is VERY high 

[Palmerr]

2 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

Freezing in South Florida at the end of the month??

Nah. but I think the next surge of arctic air around that time might be even worse than the one this weekend - especially for most locations east of Texas.

 

Ye, number one rule when looking at models. Never trust anything past 150 hours.almost always wrong.

[PAPalmtrees]

4 minutes ago, Palmerr said:

Ye, number one rule when looking at models. Never trust anything past 150 hours.almost always wrong.

I only trust the weather being accurate the day of lol

[PAPalmtrees]

9 minutes ago, Palmerr said:

Significantly below avg across the central and eastern USA. (Well the percent chance of it being below avg is VERY high 

I saw that I'm watching the same stream lol

[Chester B]

I like "Baldy in Chief" David Reimer

 

[PAPalmtrees]

Just now, Chester B said:

I like "Baldy in Chief" David Reimer

 

I think i've watched him before

[Ivanos1982]

6 hours ago, MarcusH said:

We hope that's not going to be the case,  but possible.  What bothers me with Texas climate is that almost every time a severe artic blast rolls in , the days before the event, temperatures are normally above average. Just pure stress to all of the palms. 

So far my lows are predicted anywhere between 17f to 21f . What great outlook.  Every year the same nightmare.  

It's the updates with way lower temperatures that get me. Mentally I prepare when I see the lows, takes me a while and a lot of anger but I calm down. Then when Im finally calm and have a plan... the low predictions go even lower. Then I look at the thermometers around my hood in accuweather and I see the temps dropping everywhere. It's panic for me. Not sure how to calm myself until it's all over. My palms are already all covered. I even used trashed bags for some. At this point I dont care if they choke. As long as no ice gets on em.

[MarcusH]

10 hours ago, PAPalmtrees said:

I only trust the weather being accurate the day of lol

That's the best way of saying it.  I hope for warmer temperatures otherwise my yard gets nuked . Lows of 17f . Not the worst I have seen but it's pretty close.  

[MarcusH]

5 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

It's the updates with way lower temperatures that get me. Mentally I prepare when I see the lows, takes me a while and a lot of anger but I calm down. Then when Im finally calm and have a plan... the low predictions go even lower. Then I look at the thermometers around my hood in accuweather and I see the temps dropping everywhere. It's panic for me. Not sure how to calm myself until it's all over. My palms are already all covered. I even used trashed bags for some. At this point I dont care if they choke. As long as no ice gets on em.

Same way over here. I lost some palms over the years, luckily they were still young . Most of my yard is 8a/7b . I do have one Filibusta leaning Robusta.  It partially spear pulled two winters ago. It gotten so huge that it will be a real pain to dig that one out if it bites the dust.  I also have Filifera , Sabal minor , Butia Oderata  and Trachycarpus fortunei but all of them are less than 3 years old,  except the Robusta.  Freezing rain in the forecast.  I'll put a trash bag over the Trachies and Butias and cover some of my Agaves.  That's all I'm doing.  Everything else has to sail through the rough sea.  Should have just planted Sabals and call it a day lol. 

[MarcusH]

9 hours ago, Chester B said:

I like "Baldy in Chief" David Reimer

 

Also subscribed to him . He's very calm focuses on Texas only ( for the most part) .

[ChrisA]

14 hours ago, Chester B said:

I like "Baldy in Chief" David Reimer

 

I watch him too Chester! He’s really good and I like the detail being specific to Texas. He also understands the faults in the models and explains that they really aren’t good at knowing how far south the arctic air mass will reach. The land here is pretty flat and there is nothing to keep that shallow layer of cold air back so it just rolls on south. A little concerned that we’re already seeing another cold wave next weekend… We’ll see how that evolves. 😂 Should I protect my robustas? Should I at least tie up the fronds and put frost cloth over them?  What to do?
 

 

[Chester B]

1 hour ago, ChrisA said:

hould I protect my robustas? Should I at least tie up the fronds and put frost cloth over them?  What to do?

I wrap the center spear only.  Enough to keep the ice out.  I guess they're going to defoliate again.  My largest ones have 20+ fronds each, so its going to be a pain.  I've had a huge green waste pile every week for the last few week as I have been taking down Crepe myrtles, I guess my garbage guys aren't getting a break