Expected first rounds of real cold fronts Central Florida

[D. Morrowii]

Question for the Central Florida weather watching folks. Is there an expected time period for the first solid cold fronts to arrive? I imagine it will coincide with the shortest days of the year but I’m not sure.  I’m trying to figure out when I need to re-enclose my makeshift greenhouse. I want to think that I’m pretty safe until after Thanksgiving but I don't want to assume… I usually don’t start moving any seedlings or think about protecting anything until I hear the forecast call for something below 50 F 

[kinzyjr]

While it is possible to get significant cold earlier or later, the worst is usually sometime between Thanksgiving and Valentine's Day here.  January is usually the worst month, but it changes year-to-year.  Where you're at, you have a bit more of a cushion due to the warm water.

[RFun]

2 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

Question for the Central Florida weather watching folks. Is there an expected time period for the first solid cold fronts to arrive? I imagine it will coincide with the shortest days of the year but I’m not sure.  I’m trying to figure out when I need to re-enclose my makeshift greenhouse. I want to think that I’m pretty safe until after Thanksgiving but I don't want to assume… I usually don’t start moving any seedlings or think about protecting anything until I hear the forecast call for something below 50 F 

Based on what I've observed, I'll guess the 2nd week of January is a likely candidate for a solid cold front.  Lol, maybe the 1st week and the 2nd week combined.

Edited October 24, 2023 by RFun

[D. Morrowii]

I know there are always a couple pre-winter wake up calls kind of like the one that just passed. Then everything gets lined up for the typical winter patterns and we see what we get. I guess I’ll keep watching the 10 day and use that to decide if I need to set up early. If not then I’ll set up after Thanksgiving. Thanks!

[flplantguy]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

While it is possible to get significant cold earlier or later, the worst is usually sometime between Thanksgiving and Valentine's Day here.  January is usually the worst month, but it changes year-to-year.  Where you're at, you have a bit more of a cushion due to the warm water.

This is exactly what I do. That 4 day weekend was perfect to get the shade house converted to a greenhouse and the yard ready for winter.  Spring was another matter it was hard to plan taking it down but for freezes after Valentine's Day is what I tell people too.  I was growing hot growers that don't like it below 55 degrees on the coldest night though so you may have more leeway.

[flplantguy]

34 minutes ago, D. Morrowii said:

I know there are always a couple pre-winter wake up calls kind of like the one that just passed. Then everything gets lined up for the typical winter patterns and we see what we get. I guess I’ll keep watching the 10 day and use that to decide if I need to set up early. If not then I’ll set up after Thanksgiving. Thanks!

I watch the weather blogs where the big nerds like me (but talented with weather lol) post.  They usually key in on the models and we tend to post them here too.  If a freeze is coming to Florida the weather pattern to bring it is a major one so it is usually showing up well in advance like last Christmas was.

[SubTropicRay]

For my location, Dec 10 - Feb 20 is freeze season.  Hard freeze season is Dec 20-Feb 10.  Yes there have been November freezes but the last was in 1970.  The last March freeze was in 1980.  I'll jinx us further.  Tampa hasn't dropped below freezing in February since 1996.  Global warming or not (don't know your viewpoint and don't care), the February stretch is unprecedented since records began in 1890. 

[RedRabbit]

I remember it getting into the 30s one October when I lived in Daytona. A real cold front could come at any time, but freeze risk is Dec-Feb as others have said.

[D. Morrowii]

46 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

For my location, Dec 10 - Feb 20 is freeze season.  Hard freeze season is Dec 20-Feb 10.  Yes there have been November freezes but the last was in 1970.  The last March freeze was in 1980.  I'll jinx us further.  Tampa hasn't dropped below freezing in February since 1996.  Global warming or not (don't know your viewpoint and don't care), the February stretch is unprecedented since records began in 1890. 

Ray, your timeline there fits pretty well with my plan. I just don't want to be running around at the last minute trying to fix things or figure things out. I basically just enclose my pergola patio 14’x24’ with some thick clear plastic. I already have twinwall polycarbonate on the roof and a propane heater/box fan for heat. 

[RFun]

55 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I remember it getting into the 30s one October when I lived in Daytona. A real cold front could come at any time, but freeze risk is Dec-Feb as others have said.

Last late October was pretty cold for many places.  Had a bunch of areas with early freezes.  I'm not seeing much of any of that this year.

Edited October 26, 2023 by RFun

[Matthew92]

1 hour ago, RFun said:

Last late October was pretty cold for many places.  Had a bunch of areas with early freezes.  I'm not seeing much of any of that this year.

Yeah I had a light freeze here last October which is quite rare. Before then, the only other time I recall an October freeze in the previous 15 years was 2009 if I remember correctly.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Matthew92

[SubTropicRay]

11 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

Ray, your timeline there fits pretty well with my plan. I just don't want to be running around at the last minute trying to fix things or figure things out. I basically just enclose my pergola patio 14’x24’ with some thick clear plastic. I already have twinwall polycarbonate on the roof and a propane heater/box fan for heat. 

I have one permanent 12' x 12' greenhouse that houses succulents, cacti and palms that won't tolerate our rainy summers (they would have been just fine this year 🤣).  In November, I'll empty that out and put in the smaller, tropical palms, orchids, bromeliads etc.  that have the 45F threshold of unhappiness.  They'll be in there until sometime in early March with propane and a heat lamp to keep it toasty on the colder nights.  I also have two 8 x 12 temporary structures that I erect from November through March.  It's about time for that to happen for the coming winter.  Pick a weekend over the next few weeks and just get your prep work done.  It gives you a sense of accomplishment and provides a little peace of mind. 

[SeanK]

As a tourist, I plan my trips down along I4 prior to December 10th. After that, more cold fronts push through and overnight can be chilly. As for plants, it depends if you've got z9 or z10 growing mid-state. If you're protecting z10 stuff, you might try building the walls and wait on the roof installation. The top can be added when the threat is imminent. That's why it's best to plant the sensitive stuff in the back yard. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by SeanK

[Matthew92]

Got down to 34 coldest night a couple days ago. Low 40's another couple nights. Yucky.... Thankfully no frost though. Warmer for the foreseeable future (highs in the high 70's/around 80) now thankfully.

[D. Morrowii]

On 10/26/2023 at 1:10 PM, SeanK said:

As a tourist, I plan my trips down along I4 prior to December 10th. After that, more cold fronts push through and overnight can be chilly. As for plants, it depends if you've got z9 or z10 growing mid-state. If you're protecting z10 stuff, you might try building the walls and wait on the roof installation. The top can be added when the threat is imminent. That's why it's best to plant the sensitive stuff in the back yard. 

I’m mostly protecting seedlings, some zone 11 and zone 10b stuff. I don't plan to protect everything forever but if its in a pot its pretty easy to keep warm and the way I look at it the happier I keep the palm the faster it’ll establish itself. If I can keep winter from slowing it down or damaging it and without too much effort why not do it. Some of the most tropical stuff I’ll just try to enjoy as long as its practical. I might try one or two borderline favorites in the ground and protect it when needed also as long as its practical. The original reason for the post though was just figure out when I needed to close up the patio which is wall to wall palms. 

1 hour ago, Matthew92 said:

Got down to 34 coldest night a couple days ago. Low 40's another couple nights. Yucky.... Thankfully no frost though. Warmer for the foreseeable future (highs in the high 70's/around 80) now thankfully.

 Whoa! Yeah thats pretty cold. It seems like the fronts so far have come down at a 45 degree angle and pretty much left us alone here in MI, even just 50 miles north its been a different story. 

[RFun]

9 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Got down to 34 coldest night a couple days ago. Low 40's another couple nights. Yucky.... Thankfully no frost though. Warmer for the foreseeable future (highs in the high 70's/around 80) now thankfully.

Yeah, there were some more early freezes again this year.  Not as early as last year it seems.  We have had a period where we've had earlier freezes and then we've also had some late freezes.  Those late freezes have been an absolute nightmare for many farmers.  It's a whole lot different when your livelihood is depending on the crops you are growing.

[Alan_Tampa]

On 10/25/2023 at 7:04 PM, SubTropicRay said:

For my location, Dec 10 - Feb 20 is freeze season.  Hard freeze season is Dec 20-Feb 10.  Yes there have been November freezes but the last was in 1970.  The last March freeze was in 1980.  I'll jinx us further.  Tampa hasn't dropped below freezing in February since 1996.  Global warming or not (don't know your viewpoint and don't care), the February stretch is unprecedented since records began in 1890. 

Ray, no. I'll just get the chainsaw out now. 

[SubTropicRay]

No real cold front yet and 2024 is upon us.  Soon, we'll have a negative AO, negative NAO and a stratospheric warming event brewing.  Tighten your belt nice and tight so that a high pitched voice emerges when you speak.  Mother.....

.

[flplantguy]

What comes up, must come down.  Cross your fingers the dip is not wherever you live this year.  I was seeing it's a 50/50 chance right now between Europe and north America if it happens.  Upper 40s to 60 degrees for me to start the year is chilly enough lol.

[SubTropicRay]

4 hours ago, flplantguy said:

What comes up, must come down.  Cross your fingers the dip is not wherever you live this year.  I was seeing it's a 50/50 chance right now between Europe and north America if it happens.  Upper 40s to 60 degrees for me to start the year is chilly enough lol.

Dr. Cohen says the bulk of the cold would be headed towards Siberia.  It's cold there anyway so that's a good place for it.

[flplantguy]

49 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

Dr. Cohen says the bulk of the cold would be headed towards Siberia.  It's cold there anyway so that's a good place for it.

I saw his update this morning and I'm crossing my fingers it true. It should be Siberia always lol.

[D. Morrowii]

Well I did end up putting the “walls” on the enclosure around the 1st of December but so far we have been unusually mild here. 49 was the low if I remember right. One of the current 10 day’s forecasted low, at the moment is tomorrow night for 45F. I guess we will see what’s in store over the next 8-12 weeks. 

[Alan_Tampa]

22 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

No real cold front yet and 2024 is upon us.  Soon, we'll have a negative AO, negative NAO and a stratospheric warming event brewing.  Tighten your belt nice and tight so that a high pitched voice emerges when you speak.  Mother.....

.

I hope you are correct.  I have two yards now to worry over. And I stacked my mom's place with poor choices. And, my Inga decided to flower, as well as the jackfruit. Alwas in the winter,  what the heck?! My palms have all been here at least 20 years, with only a few exceptions. And they all saw 2010. 

[kinzyjr]

10 minutes ago, Alan_Tampa said:

I hope you are correct.  I have two yards now to worry over. And I stacked my mom's place with poor choices. And, my Inga decided to flower, as well as the jackfruit. Alwas in the winter,  what the heck?! My palms have all been here at least 20 years, with only a few exceptions. And they all saw 2010. 

Seems like my mangoes always flower right around Christmas.  If we get a bad one, guess the squirrels, armadillos, and rabbits will have to tighten their belts a little in the spring.

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, Alan_Tampa said:

I hope you are correct.  I have two yards now to worry over. And I stacked my mom's place with poor choices. And, my Inga decided to flower, as well as the jackfruit. Alwas in the winter,  what the heck?! My palms have all been here at least 20 years, with only a few exceptions. And they all saw 2010. 

Where’s your other place? I recall we live fairly close by.

[Alan_Tampa]

Sarasota, behind sarasota high. I'm in citrus park.