For some, Florida drought is getting very "extreme"

[HudsonBill]

20 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

By June it will be really bad based on this, and I'm concerned for fires and agriculture issues.  I think this is the worst I have ever seen it since I have been here.

Since I've moved here 5 years ago it's amazed me how dry it is. I honestly feel that if tropical systems didnt exist here the state would be a desert. The first year I was here it stormed everyday from like may till October not to much at once just enough to realy soak everything once or twice a day. Every year after that it seems to not rain much at all till late summer and it all comes in either tropical systems are in a bunch of insane thunderstorms that drop 5 inches plus at once. 

[flplantguy]

14 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Since I've moved here 5 years ago it's amazed me how dry it is. I honestly feel that if tropical systems didnt exist here the state would be a desert. The first year I was here it stormed everyday from like may till October not to much at once just enough to realy soak everything once or twice a day. Every year after that it seems to not rain much at all till late summer and it all comes in either tropical systems are in a bunch of insane thunderstorms that drop 5 inches plus at once. 

It's cyclical too and we are in a bad cycle. If you look at other areas at our latitude many are very dry deserts (cairo, for example, or Hermosillo MX that does see the southwest monsoon) so if the pattern isn't there for our sea breeze we are similar. Add in that sun angle and it's brutal. Summer 2013 in largo we had hard rains every day outside one 2 week stretch where we "only" had a quarter inch. I had just moved into the house and had no garden yet, and was pretty irked that that year was the wet one lol. It all looks good on paper as averages, but nature never works out that way.

[Hombre de Palmas]

Some rain is in the forecast for today and tomorrow.

Models showing very modest amounts in the .1 to .2 range.

[MarkC]

It’s amazing how dry it can be here in the winter months and then the Waterworld-like rains that come in rainy season. Looking at the yearly totals is definitely misleading as it doesn’t tell the story. 

[Hombre de Palmas]

17 minutes ago, MarkC said:

It’s amazing how dry it can be here in the winter months and then the Waterworld-like rains that come in rainy season. Looking at the yearly totals is definitely misleading as it doesn’t tell the story. 

Even in the so-called "rainy season" here there can be periods of mini-drought. I once did some calculations and determined that a disturbingly high proportion of the yearly rainfall fell over a very restricted number of calendar days. I suppose that is true for many locations, but here it seems to be somewhat more amplified. In the extreme heat of summer, a relatively short period without precipitation can become problematic very quickly. 

Nothing lasts forever though, and this cycle will modify...eventually. I do not claim to fully understand the nature of climate change and how it contributes to this current pattern, but there is very compelling macro data that suggests the globe is warming overall, and rainfall patterns are being disrupted. Global warming does not occur in a linear fashion though. It is punctuated by extremes in the opposite direction. 

It has been almost surreal to be at the epicenter of these extremes. Drought, extreme wind and extreme temperatures this winter. Don't know why it is for sure, and don't know when, or if, it will return to "normal".  Whatever it is, I hate it.

[MarkC]

29 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

Even in the so-called "rainy season" here there can be periods of mini-drought. I once did some calculations and determined that a disturbingly high proportion of the yearly rainfall fell over a very restricted number of calendar days. I suppose that is true for many locations, but here it seems to be somewhat more amplified. In the extreme heat of summer, a relatively short period without precipitation can become problematic very quickly. 

Nothing lasts forever though, and this cycle will modify...eventually. I do not claim to fully understand the nature of climate change and how it contributes to this current pattern, but there is very compelling macro data that suggests the globe is warming overall, and rainfall patterns are being disrupted. Global warming does not occur in a linear fashion though. It is punctuated by extremes in the opposite direction. 

It has been almost surreal to be at the epicenter of these extremes. Drought, extreme wind and extreme temperatures this winter. Don't know why it is for sure, and don't know when, or if, it will return to "normal".  Whatever it is, I hate it.

It’s definitely a greater challenge keeping the garden and grass looking lush. We were under the impression that there are ample rains and nature would for the most part, take care of it. Boy was that wrong. Our water bill is in the hundreds, and it barely makes a dent in keeping the lawn green. 
 

One thing I do miss(there’s actually many non-gardening related things I miss) after moving down here are “normal” rains. That’s also another reason, at least around Naples, that being just a little too far from the coast leaves you stricken with far more consistent rains and cloudiness in the wet season where just several hundred yards closer to the gulf, the skies are clearer much longer. But since the rains are so jarring, the preference tends to be living in that rain shadow.

[Looking Glass]

I say this all the time.  Most of the rain totals for the year come from just a small number of very heavy rain days and tropical events.   Other than that it’s hot, sunny and dry.   Half of the “rainy seasons” are very dry with little rain during that season.  When you look at Florida (and Cuban/Carribean) Palms, most of them have evolved to be very drought tolerant due to these natural climate characteristics.  Some are even naturally fire-tolerant.   

Without multiple tropical storms and hurricanes during the year, the drought conditions overall dominate, and push us into drought, and trigger wildfires..   Last year, there was none.  These are often huge systems effecting most of the state, and dousing us with a week of heavy precipitation, with only small areas being subject to the storm force winds.  

I don’t understand the debate about global warming sometimes.   It’s pretty obvious, as we don’t see woolly mammoths, wooly rhinoceros, and saber tooth tigers and dire wolves, running around North America these days.  Huge glaciers have carved mountains and lakes in the US, and receded.   Climate change defines the planet over millions of years.  I find it amusing though, that every drought, every flood, every hot day, every cold day, every blizzard, every tropical storm and lack of tropical storm, on a momentary scale, is used as evidence of a political crisis by the National News and the Weather Channel.  

[Hombre de Palmas]

4 minutes ago, MarkC said:

It’s definitely a greater challenge keeping the garden and grass looking lush. We were under the impression that there are ample rains and nature would for the most part, take care of it. Boy was that wrong. Our water bill is in the hundreds, and it barely makes a dent in keeping the lawn green. 
 

One thing I do miss(there’s actually many non-gardening related things I miss) after moving down here are “normal” rains. That’s also another reason, at least around Naples, that being just a little too far from the coast leaves you stricken with far more consistent rains and cloudiness in the wet season where just several hundred yards closer to the gulf, the skies are clearer much longer. But since the rains are so jarring, the preference tends to be living in that rain shadow.

I have decided to give up on the lawn. It's too expensive, and it's galling to have to water even in the so-called rainy season. It will be expensive enough to establish the new garden as a result of the freez,e but once that is accomplished I will have a relatively hands-off xeriscape. I just have zero confidence that this year is a one-off and it will mean peace of mind. Not what I had in mind but my new mantra is "whaddya gonna do"?

Over the past 10 years we have spent over $30,000 putting in, and maintaining our tropical landscape. It was gone in a matter of hours. Going forward, it will be an uphill battle even without an extreme freeze, further extreme drought or a direct or near-miss hurricane. I will opt for a decent compromise and never worry about another drought or freeze again...but about those hurricanes!

[Hombre de Palmas]

3 minutes ago, Looking Glass said:

I say this all the time.  Most of the rain totals for the year come from just a small number of very heavy rain days and tropical events.   Other than that it’s hot, sunny and dry.   Half of the “rainy seasons” are very dry with little rain during that season.  When you look at Florida (and Cuban/Carribean) Palms, most of them have evolved to be very drought tolerant due to these natural climate characteristics.  Some are even naturally fire-tolerant.   

Without multiple tropical storms and hurricanes during the year, the drought conditions overall dominate, and push us into drought, and trigger wildfires..   Last year, there was none.  These are often huge systems effecting most of the state, and dousing us with a week of heavy precipitation, with only small areas being subject to the storm force winds.  

I don’t understand the debate about global warming sometimes.   It’s pretty obvious, as we don’t see woolly mammoths, wooly rhinoceros, and saber tooth tigers and dire wolves, running around North America these days.  Huge glaciers have carved mountains and lakes in the US, and receded.   Climate change defines the planet over millions of years.  I find it amusing though, that every drought, every flood, every hot day, every cold day, every blizzard, every tropical storm and lack of tropical storm, on a momentary scale, is used as evidence of a political crisis by the National News and the Weather Channel.  

I steer clear of the politics of climate. This is my "safe place".

[80s Kid]

7 hours ago, Looking Glass said:

I say this all the time.  Most of the rain totals for the year come from just a small number of very heavy rain days and tropical events.   Other than that it’s hot, sunny and dry.   Half of the “rainy seasons” are very dry with little rain during that season.  When you look at Florida (and Cuban/Carribean) Palms, most of them have evolved to be very drought tolerant due to these natural climate characteristics.  Some are even naturally fire-tolerant.   

Without multiple tropical storms and hurricanes during the year, the drought conditions overall dominate, and push us into drought, and trigger wildfires..   Last year, there was none.  These are often huge systems effecting most of the state, and dousing us with a week of heavy precipitation, with only small areas being subject to the storm force winds.  

I don’t understand the debate about global warming sometimes.   It’s pretty obvious, as we don’t see woolly mammoths, wooly rhinoceros, and saber tooth tigers and dire wolves, running around North America these days.  Huge glaciers have carved mountains and lakes in the US, and receded.   Climate change defines the planet over millions of years.  I find it amusing though, that every drought, every flood, every hot day, every cold day, every blizzard, every tropical storm and lack of tropical storm, on a momentary scale, is used as evidence of a political crisis by the National News and the Weather Channel.  

The climate has always been changing and always will be changing. It would be really unusual if it stayed the same. Humans will continue to adapt as they always have. It appears humans typically fare better when the earth is warmer but there will always be plenty of natural disasters regardless of the direction the earth's temperature. I just try not to get to worked up over it because it's out of my control and we all represent a tiny sliver of the earth's history.

There are many different cycles and variations constantly at play like the earth's tilt, wobble, solar output, volcanic activity, etc. Heck, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga volcano eruption a few years ago sent a massive amount of water vapor into the atmosphere which likely had a material effect on the earth's temperature. If you've never heard of "The Year Without a Summer" I highly recommend looking it up and reading the book about it...fascinating stuff.

[Looking Glass]

If I had to do it over again, I would only plant Native, Cuban, Caribbean, and maybe Round Island palms in the front yard.   Stuff that can take drought conditions, and crazy heavy open sun.  The amount of water and fertilizer I have to dump is nuts.   The aforementioned would be thrilled with more basic care, and with the right choices, the yard would still look exotic.  

Water, in our pure sand soil is very limiting here in SE FL.   The amount of soil amending, watering, and fertilizing can get tiring in open yards.  Especially, if you don’t have some giant hardwood tree cover nearby to shield you from part of the days sun blast.  These past couple of years have been brutal.  

[Hombre de Palmas]

1 hour ago, 80s Kid said:

The climate has always been changing and always will be changing. It would be really unusual if it stayed the same. Humans will continue to adapt as they always have. It appears humans typically fare better when the earth is warmer but there will always be plenty of natural disasters regardless of the direction the earth's temperature. I just try not to get to worked up over it because it's out of my control and we all represent a tiny sliver of the earth's history.

There are many different cycles and variations constantly at play like the earth's tilt, wobble, solar output, volcanic activity, etc. Heck, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga volcano eruption a few years ago sent a massive amount of water vapor into the atmosphere which likely had a material effect on the earth's temperature. If you've never heard of "The Year Without a Summer" I highly recommend looking it up and reading the book about it...fascinating stuff.

I love to take trips back in time and tour the various geological and climatological epochs.  It really puts today's everyday events in the perspective they deserve. Yes, I have read about the "Year Without a Summer". Now THAT was a tragedy for the human race.  The climate events you have encapsulated above happened even before the Industrial Revolution and the widespread exploitation of fossil fuel.

The thing is, I wonder about the coal, oil and gas deposits that formed over a 300 million year period. What percentage of that sequestered carbon dioxide has been released into the atmosphere in just 150 years?

Our gardens are not even an afterthought of an afterthought. Whatever we are experiencing though, I hate it.

 

 

[Hombre de Palmas]

27 minutes ago, Looking Glass said:

If I had to do it over again, I would only plant Native, Cuban, Caribbean, and maybe Round Island palms in the front yard.   Stuff that can take drought conditions, and crazy heavy open sun.  The amount of water and fertilizer I have to dump is nuts.   The aforementioned would be thrilled with more basic care, and with the right choices, the yard would still look exotic.  

Water, in our pure sand soil is very limiting here in SE FL.   The amount of soil amending, watering, and fertilizing can get tiring in open yards.  Especially, if you don’t have some giant hardwood tree cover nearby to shield you from part of the days sun blast.  These past couple of years have been brutal.  

I feel the same way. Mother Nature has given me quite the nudge this year to do just that.

Lowes, Home Depot, our Water Utility and the local Garden Centers will not be happy.🤑

[bubba]

This is a once in 30 year event. I hope this does not cause the edge pushers to not continue. I believe that many of the palms and vegetation that have been damaged will recover at greater lengths than expected. Time to replant!

[SeanK]

Big rains fell in GA on Thursday and should have pushed south into FL on Friday. Did they make it to I10? To I4?

[Hombre de Palmas]

9 hours ago, bubba said:

This is a once in 30 year event. I hope this does not cause the edge pushers to not continue. I believe that many of the palms and vegetation that have been damaged will recover at greater lengths than expected. Time to replant!

This certainly was a "unique" event. The focus for the killing freeze of long-term tropicals seems to run along the coast from about Cape Canaveral to somewhat north of Jupiter and including the metro of Orlando. The corridor between the coast and just west of 95 where people zone-pushed successfully for years is pretty devastated here in the PSL area.  Out west of 95 the tropical stuff dropped off dramatically before the freeze so that area shouldn't have been so affected. I don't have first-hand knowledge of the effects of the freeze north of Ft Pierce so I am making an educated guess about the northern extent. The barrier islands around here have significant damage, but most of the palms look to recover eventually.

Port St Lucie proper looks like a war zone. Many of the people who planted these tropicals put them in, and then never properly cared for them. I worry there will be dead vegetation standing for years. It is way to early to say, but my early bet is that 80% of coconuts and Adonidias are toast other those on the barrier islands. Royals are already putting out new fronds but will take a while to rebound. The looming question is whether this cycle is in the early innings or not. The Feb. 1-3 event was not our only trip into the low 30s and mid-20s this year. We had three other events into the low-mid 30s this year, as many as the past 6-8 years combined at my place.

To make matters worse for us personally,  we've dealt with a constant stream of visitors from up north, who wanted to escape their own horrendous winter.  So they have witnessed this carnage first hand and have been constantly giving us unwanted sympathy.  I came upon my sis -in-law walking around the yard documenting the carnage to her phone to be disseminated to the rest of the family!  All I really want to do is deal with the mess, but to be polite, I have to sit outside with them while they soak up the sun and look at the disaster in our back yard.  Even when I take them to the barrier islands the damage is everywhere, you just can't escape it.  I have one more group coming in March, the husband just called and in a grave voice asked how the yard looks.

I said "it looks dead". 

My wife and I agree, no visitors next year or maybe ever!

Right now my plan is to wait and watch, keeping the palms watered and eventually apply a light fertilization. Some of the Adonidias are defying death right now, even pushing out new, albeit heavily damaged fronds, but I'm not optimistic about a total recovery.  My Wodyetias now look like they will pull through, but no guarantee.

Ironically, my wife pressured me into cutting down the only palm we inherited when we bought the house, a Syagrus that would have been the one palm that would have survived unscathed. She wanted it removed when she became fixated about the danger in a hurricane because she read that they fall on houses. There are seedlings everywhere in my yard from that tree that I took out 5 years ago. I intend to relocate those seedlings and let them develop as may to fill in for the dead palms.  When she realizes what they are, I will tell her that she can chop them down to her hearts content when they become a danger.

I hope younger people will continue to zone push. I will enjoy watching the progress. My plan is to create a new landscape on the cheap, resilient to drought, wind and cold.  

Then there are all the diseases...

 

[JLM]

I dont know if anyone has mentioned it here yet, but I believe that as of Thursday for the first time since the drought monitor began back in 2000, the entire state of Florida is involved in a Moderate Drought or worse. 

Burn bans are also becoming more widespread across the Peninsula:

[Hombre de Palmas]

We just received around .4 of an inch today. There was a slurping sound when I walked outside.

[kinzyjr]

We received half an inch and some change overnight at my location and then an additional tenth of an inch this evening.  Surprisingly, it did not rain at all during the plant sale.  Hopefully a colder winter means it will actually rain consistently this summer.

[Looking Glass]

18 hours ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

This certainly was a "unique" event. The focus for the killing freeze of long-term tropicals seems to run along the coast from about Cape Canaveral to somewhat north of Jupiter and including the metro of Orlando. The corridor between the coast and just west of 95 where people zone-pushed successfully for years is pretty devastated here in the PSL area.  Out west of 95 the tropical stuff dropped off dramatically before the freeze so that area shouldn't have been so affected. I don't have first-hand knowledge of the effects of the freeze north of Ft Pierce so I am making an educated guess about the northern extent. The barrier islands around here have significant damage, but most of the palms look to recover eventually.

Port St Lucie proper looks like a war zone. Many of the people who planted these tropicals put them in, and then never properly cared for them. I worry there will be dead vegetation standing for years. It is way to early to say, but my early bet is that 80% of coconuts and Adonidias are toast other those on the barrier islands. Royals are already putting out new fronds but will take a while to rebound. The looming question is whether this cycle is in the early innings or not. The Feb. 1-3 event was not our only trip into the low 30s and mid-20s this year. We had three other events into the low-mid 30s this year, as many as the past 6-8 years combined at my place.

To make matters worse for us personally,  we've dealt with a constant stream of visitors from up north, who wanted to escape their own horrendous winter.  So they have witnessed this carnage first hand and have been constantly giving us unwanted sympathy.  I came upon my sis -in-law walking around the yard documenting the carnage to her phone to be disseminated to the rest of the family!  All I really want to do is deal with the mess, but to be polite, I have to sit outside with them while they soak up the sun and look at the disaster in our back yard.  Even when I take them to the barrier islands the damage is everywhere, you just can't escape it.  I have one more group coming in March, the husband just called and in a grave voice asked how the yard looks.

I said "it looks dead". 

My wife and I agree, no visitors next year or maybe ever!

Right now my plan is to wait and watch, keeping the palms watered and eventually apply a light fertilization. Some of the Adonidias are defying death right now, even pushing out new, albeit heavily damaged fronds, but I'm not optimistic about a total recovery.  My Wodyetias now look like they will pull through, but no guarantee.

Ironically, my wife pressured me into cutting down the only palm we inherited when we bought the house, a Syagrus that would have been the one palm that would have survived unscathed. She wanted it removed when she became fixated about the danger in a hurricane because she read that they fall on houses. There are seedlings everywhere in my yard from that tree that I took out 5 years ago. I intend to relocate those seedlings and let them develop as may to fill in for the dead palms.  When she realizes what they are, I will tell her that she can chop them down to her hearts content when they become a danger.

I hope younger people will continue to zone push. I will enjoy watching the progress. My plan is to create a new landscape on the cheap, resilient to drought, wind and cold.  

Then there are all the diseases...

 

In your wife’s defense, Queens are well documented to be one of the worst performing overall trees in hurricanes.  Looking at them structurally, you’d think they’d do well, but they root shallow and fall over like crazy in high storm winds.  In South Florida, it’s recommended to remove any within falling distance of the house.   Maybe just plant them far enough away.  

[Hombre de Palmas]

You and my wife ARE absolutely correct. I did my research after I realized she wasn't going to let it go. My Queen was in sad shape when we moved in, and I spent 5 years nursing her back to health, only to give it the axe, I was pretty heavyhearted about that.  I just thought it was ironic that we removed the only palm in our arsenal suited for the "2026 Fatal Florida Freeze"

I'm an old guy so I have a limited amount of time to make the back yard into something that doesn't make me sad every time I go outside. After spending a small fortune creating the first iteration, #2 will be something completely different, light on the cash outlay, but still "tropical looking". I like the look of young queen palms and I won't get attached to my palms ever again, if they begin to present an issue, then off with their heads!

Anyway, as you rightly suggest, they will be out in the yard, away from the house and the neighbor's homes. Hopefully Fusarium oxysporum won't get 'em. There are NUMEROUS Syagrus in my immediate vicinity and only one or two seem affected by that disease. Interesting story about how that came to be.  Apparently, in days gone by, their lived a "Johnny Queen Palm" in our neighborhood. He dispersed Queens freely to neighbors, even planting them himself, according to a couple older neighbors. He's long gone, but his legacy lives on, at least for now.

In yet another twist of irony, another of my plantings did not blink as a result of the freeze, my Eugenia hedge. Unfortunately I was beginning to remove them because of "Branch dieback" and "Guava rust". I'm just a lucky guy.

Better to laugh then cry.

[SubTropicRay]

Got 1.07" of healing rain Friday night.  There's hope Delilah ☺️

[aabell]

At least 2" here last night, isolated storms popped up late in the afternoon, almost like it was August, and one of them sat over us for a long time. Hopefully more on the way for a wider area, lots of moderate rain chances showing in the 10 day. 

[SubTropicRay]

It looks like a mid summer map.  Could it be? 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

40 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

It looks like a mid summer map.  Could it be? 

 

Nice try,  lol..   Nothing remotely close to " Mid - summery looking "   ....on the the map on the right at least. 

[SubTropicRay]

[sonoranfans]

last night we got a few good periods of rain, my phone says 0.05", that makes me laugh as water collected in the back yard.  Looked like we got at least 1-2 inches.  Its normally dry this time of year.  30 consecutive days without measurable rain in spring is not that uncommon, Ive seen 60 consecutive days with no measur4able rain in spring a decade ago.  We had a little bit of rain two days ago, probably just 0.1" or so.  Last night was loud on the metal roof for 3 half hour periods, lighter rain in between.  It was a good hard rainm the kind that makes driving difficult even at reduced speeds due to low visibility.  THis morning I saw the water level in the retention ponds I walk by every day (walking the dog) has changed, the waterline is up as is the canal water level on the other side of the retention ponds and water is moving down the canal again.  The real problem was that it hadn't significantly rained since september.  We typically get about 9 inches of rain from Nov through February and I expect we have had less than 1 total inch.  Last year was below average rainfall so we now have drought restrictions.  I am happy for the rain but the weather report has been very inaccurate as the rain has fallen in heavy clustered areas with dry regions around it.  I just want to be able to water my yard more than 1x a week again before it gets hot.. 

[sonoranfans]

Got more rain yesterday, perhaps half an inch.  Palms are happy and the ground is wet.  The retention ponds water levels look about normal for this dry time of year, one foot below the grass dropoff line.  This level may drain down over time as the water levels equilibrate int eh area, but the non irrigated grass is also turning green after being brown for months.  

[SubTropicRay]

Don't forget, it's still veeeeery dry out there

[Looking Glass]

We got a little light rain today. Maybe 1/3rd of an inch so far.  I’ll take it.  The Satakentia are too big now and dying of thirst on this sand mound of a yard.   


 

[sonoranfans]

We had a pretty good downpour yesterday just before sunset for 40 mins lingering drizzle after.  All was soaked this morning.  Seems like sarasota(our "local" station) got nothing.  I could see the radar on my phone yesterday, plenty of rain.  IM going to guess we got 1/2 inch or better.  The last week or 10 days the weather has really helped with our water restrictions to 1 day a week.  

[kinzyjr]

We got a light mist that made the top of the mulch damp and not much else.  Better than nothing, but it's better when we get a soaker.

[Matthew92]

While my area has gotten rain periodically the last few weeks enough to keep plants satisfied (although technically we are still in a drought), my location pulled a magic trick and missed all these storms circled that are moving east this morning. Possible we could get something before it’s over but not looking too likely. Not very happy because in the forecast it looks like there’s going to be many days of dry weather after this. 

[kinzyjr]

Time to fill out the score card for the year so far:

• January: 0.80-1.00 in. of rain (Average is 2.99 inches)
• February: 1.40-1.60 in. of rain (Average is 2.33 inches)
• March (halfway): 1.00-1.15 in. of rain (Average is 3.06 inches)

Yep, we're off to a stellar start.