I hope they are wrong and you get the stuff that may come our way! It is starting to feel like our dry season is over.

I am so sick of this BS.

4 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

I am so sick of this BS.

I'm joining the club.

Good news, @SubTropicRay! We're theoretically transitioning to rainy season: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/RainySeason

19 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Good news, @SubTropicRay! We're theoretically transitioning to rainy season: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/RainySeason

Yesterday, there were no clouds in the sky.  Rain is impossible under these conditions.  

"Morning TBW sounding has come in with
precipitable water around 1.5 inches so we have have enough
moisture for continued isolated to scattered convection, but the
westerly flow will favor the interior and eastern half of the
Florida peninsula as the day progresses."

9 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Yesterday, there were no clouds in the sky.  Rain is impossible under these conditions.  

In hindsight, I should have tagged that as sarcasm.   We had a 40% chance of rain after 11am today.  It clouded up, the wind picked up.... and then the clouds went away and the sun came back out.  Very similar to last summer.

On 5/23/2024 at 1:58 PM, SubTropicRay said:

I am so sick of this BS.

Wow, the spigot is shut tight already.

https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074

A possible factor?  This article discusses the impact of the volcano on weather models and a theory on the current situation.  I wonder if it is effecting weather here, and if it is it could last a few years.  Hoping that we go back to normal anyway and rainy season starts soon.  The idea that winters will be warmer is fine and dandy, but that polar vortex is not.  Neither is excessive drought for years on end, I left the west because I love green and rainfall.

1:05 PM 91 degrees sunny and 39% RH rising to a high of 95F.  The gulf is already warm. almost 84F in st pete today.   Anna Maria island morning lows are 79-81F over the last week, warmer than inland ellenton at 71-76F the past week.   Todays lows were 71F ellenton 79F anna maria, very atypical for this time of year. but it makes sense with the gulf at 84F.  This happened last year, no rain, sparse clouds.   

On 5/19/2024 at 8:04 PM, kinzyjr said:

In classic form, 80% chance of rain and didn't get a drop (Day #7 >=50% + no rain).  The NWS was nice enough to amend it after the fact like Weather.com though

Day #8 of >=50% + no rain incoming (boxed in red).  We should eclipse double-digits by the end of the week.  Let's see if we can go 5-for-5...

@SubTropicRay is this storm over tampa hitting you?  Ive been narrowly missed twice now but it shows promise!  Hoping you get a good soaking and not another dissapointment!

11 hours ago, flplantguy said:

@SubTropicRay is this storm over tampa hitting you?  Ive been narrowly missed twice now but it shows promise!  Hoping you get a good soaking and not another dissapointment!

Yes!! I got roughly 2 inches of rain from this deluge.  It was a pleasant surprise.

The plot (and the drought) thickens.  It's getting fugly again.

They keep pushing back the higher rain chances too. Im hoping for a gyre that spits out rain and little wind, we do have a good chance coming up but ill believe it when it lands. Rainy season here in a normal year is mid to late june this far north anyway, except last year🥵.

I would not kind this model coming true just no H word.

On 6/4/2024 at 6:15 AM, SubTropicRay said:

Yes!! I got roughly 2 inches of rain from this deluge.  It was a pleasant surprise.

This is good news for a change.  The week started off as it typically would, with high rain chances in the forecast and barely a cloud in the sky.  The last two days have brought just over 1.25 inches of rain spread over two storms.  Let's hope this is the actual start of rainy season. 🤞

.15” over here yesterday, the storms just avoided my place for the most part. Damn hot! 

ziltch for south Brevard over the past week.

Newest models show more of a westward trend on the rain coming in. With some of it well out in time still it could all go to texas, but in either case summer is here. Its been 82 here all night with an onshore flow with no rain here yet. Inland a short ways or north just off the water its 70 to 72. Crazy how fast it can drop off but it shows the water temps are up there well into hot readings. Should be able to support some hefty downpours i hope.

6 hours ago, flplantguy said:

Newest models show more of a westward trend on the rain coming in. With some of it well out in time still it could all go to texas, but in either case summer is here. Its been 82 here all night with an onshore flow with no rain here yet. Inland a short ways or north just off the water its 70 to 72. Crazy how fast it can drop off but it shows the water temps are up there well into hot readings. Should be able to support some hefty downpours i hope.

You looking at last night's / yesterday's model " thoughts" ? 06Z has the " disturbance " ..or whatever it ends up being,  back over FL again..

Rainy season pattern there was always something that i thought was interesting as well.. 

When i lived in Largo, couldn't count how many times i'd be watching storms form / dropping all sorts of lightning right over the beaches to my west while doing laundry up the block from my apartment, only to watch those same storms reach my location ..only a few miles from the beaches w/ just a little rain / some wind, and a few claps of thunder.  Were nothing but clumps of debris clouds by the time they reached the Tampa Bay side of Pinellas County.  That's a pretty short distance.

Other times, they'd stay tethered to the beaches their entire lifecycle before fizzling out,  or drifting further offshore into the Gulf.  Those were kind of fun because i could walk the beaches on Treasure Island at say 11PM or midnight / 1AM  and watch some epic Pulse- type storms hanging right offshore, but never approaching my location.

No clue where they are in the internet universe now but i know there are a few lightning shots i'd caught on one of those nights out there somewhere ( along w/ some nice, FL sunsets i'd captured at that time ).


Similar story in Bradenton, esp. w/ storms moving west from further inland.  I'm sure my overly impatient rants about storms missing my backyard  are out there, here, somewhere, lol.

The models swing around that far out, but i try to just look at general trends and it still shows florida, so the slight negativity of my previous post was premature. Im sure it will kick things off, i think the rain covering the whole peninsula seems to help start the consistent cycle up. The random pop ups could be so frustrating when you were not in the pattern for it, i think my new home here is just west of the typical collision/initiation point based on the past week. That means i need a pattern that pushes them to the west after they fire, and it seems like that pattern has left the state lately.  Ill keep crossing my fingers and dragging the hose.

10 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

The models swing around that far out, but i try to just look at general trends and it still shows florida, so the slight negativity of my previous post was premature. Im sure it will kick things off, i think the rain covering the whole peninsula seems to help start the consistent cycle up. The random pop ups could be so frustrating when you were not in the pattern for it, i think my new home here is just west of the typical collision/initiation point based on the past week. That means i need a pattern that pushes them to the west after they fire, and it seems like that pattern has left the state lately.  Ill keep crossing my fingers and dragging the hose.

 Agree w/ the shifting around of the longer term " thoughts " in run to run model output ..so no negativity regarding what you noted.. That said,  Liking what is showing up in the last two runs ..for now.. until / if  it changes it's mind again, 🙃 lol..

I think the most annoying pattern i recall while in both areas lived there, was when the collision boundary was set up directly overhead, tossing big, bright bolts and a quick downpour when i'd leave for work / go do ..whatever.. that day early on,  then the storms quickly racing off to the east within an hour / staying clear ( and STEAMY ) the rest of the day overhead  while those same storms were dumping good rains somewhere over the center of the state.. " Human yelling at clouds"  Yep, did that a few times / Still mutter it occasionally,  haha..

  to awaiting being relieved of " dragging the hose " duties ..even if that only gives me a few days off at a time -here-

 

Like this! Keep trending this way please.  Even the moisture moving into the mountains of Mexico is starting to show up in the north a bit and the rains on the plains (lol) are a good sign. My family in NM has had quite a spring and that extra moisture helps back the dryline up and set the stage for monsoon season there. Every bit helps and im hopeful part of the patterns changing is enough rain for us all. A long shot i know but i can cross my fingers anyway.

29 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Like this! Keep trending this way please.  Even the moisture moving into the mountains of Mexico is starting to show up in the north a bit and the rains on the plains (lol) are a good sign. My family in NM has had quite a spring and that extra moisture helps back the dryline up and set the stage for monsoon season there. Every bit helps and im hopeful part of the patterns changing is enough rain for us all. A long shot i know but i can cross my fingers anyway.

Yep..   12Z's QPF thoughts... 🤞




Dew Points breaking the 60deg mark here, in late June  ...rather than the usual after July 1st -5th timeframe.. wouldn't be bad either, ..if it pans out.



Faster we can cross the " 3 days at 55deg D.P. reading " rule to kick off the season, the better it might be ..even if not a super- soaker.

*** Red line is last year's readings ***






🤞🤞

Did someone ask for rain? Maybe this is all those back logged requests of rain from last year being fulfilled.
 

EDIT: As far as tropical shenanigans go, not looking like a major factor at this time. *If* something were to manage to consolidate, it would be weak and short lived and quite possibly not even fully tropical (subtropical).

Edited June 9, 20242 yr by JLM

3 hours ago, JLM said:

Did someone ask for rain? Maybe this is all those back logged requests of rain from last year being fulfilled.

I'll take all the rain, just no named storms please

It looks like the SW Florida drought is going to end 14 inches of rain predicted for the next 7 days for the Lee County coast

Rain keeps pushing my way from the west but erodes as it edges in, then redevelops off the coast.

Been stuck in this pattern for several weeks. When the pattern finally breaks down, we will get 20% of our annual rainfall in a week. Then nothing again for awhile.

I spend a lot of time watering.

It’s lining up to be a decent soaking here at the tip of the weinus…

.86” of rain here yesterday. Easily filled the rain barrels to 305 gallons. Lots of fronds that have been in full sun for months with burned patches from the last 2 weeks. 
My palms from Caledonia……      
Are looking Minnesota.  Oh yeah. 

we got a good rain twice in the last 12 hours, total maybe 1 inch.  Looks like more for the next few days so I shut down the irrigation system.  Its cloudy now and a light mist at times.  The palms are loving this wet, somewhat cooler weather. 

About .85 inches here.  The sand is so hydrophobic now that below an inch is still dry in the slightly higher spots.  Im thinking the smaller leaves on some my planted palms like the bentinkia are from this issue, i may have to do some major soil changes for some of them unless it changes this summer. I even water the bentinkia every day (too much?) but the fronds are a quarter of the size of those produced still in the pot. Keep it up mother nature!

It’s definitely coming across like crazy from the E/SE clockwise, and delivering steady, fairly heavy rain here with no end in sight for days.  
 

 

Good water, but gloom city out there. 

Got roughly 0.75 overnight last night and about another tenth of an inch this morning.  That puts what I recorded right around what @D. Morrowii and @flplantguy got.  The ground here absorbs it all, but it's not quite what we really need.  At least it is cloudy and 20^oF cooler so you can stand to go outside and what rain we did get doesn't just immediately turn downtown into a sauna.  That 10 inches of rain Sarasota is supposed to get ... bring it!

Sarasota and southward have a 50%+ chance of rain through Friday. We shall see.

If you get lucky under one of the stationary bands of thunderstorms you will get dumped on. 4 inches or more in one around the Tarpon area and sarasota has one too.  Hopefully this helps kick off a normal rainy season pattern that happens to be wetter than average a bit.