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ENSO La Nina El Nino history & Forecast


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The chart shows equitorial Pacific temperature patterns for last 73 years.  Based on this data some evidence suggests the weather in North America for next 4 years could be similar to the 2001 to 2006 period following a 3 year La Nna.  At present the Pacific is changing from a 3 year La Nina to Neutral/El Nino pattern.

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)],

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

603304726_Screenshot2023-01-22at06-58-30ClimatePredictionCenter-ONI.thumb.png.814316b4405ba3ed42db4b569c54ceca.png

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Here's the latest forecast "thoughts" from the CFSv2 and IRI. Note on both ..at least for now, neither are all that optimistic for reaching El Nino Status( At least +1C status ).  Warm Neutral is definitely possible though.

1941586751_Screenshot2023-01-22at10-52-34nino34Mon.gif(PNGImage1100850pixels)Scaled(75).png.05cfa5331ee0661a97d1f352faa601ae.png

512235538_Screenshot2023-01-22at10-57-31IRIInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSocietyJanuary2023QuickLook.png.47bc68756a7016d263262b11bdc9aa9f.png

So, Anyone hoping for a transition into El Nino this year, ..it may not happen -yet-  ..just have to wait and see..

****That said, it is early.. Still have the "Spring Unpredictability Barrier" to get through.. We'll have a better idea of where things could go come June.

Additionally, would look through this excellent thread from Ben Noll on what clues to watch for / other important signs that may point toward El Nino later..  Lots of graphs / gifs.

1140992483_Screenshot2023-01-22at11-03-15BenNoll(@BenNollWeather)_Twitter.png.70af8fccadc7f91488f286ce64624f1d.png

Can also monitor how things are coming together ..or not,  here:  http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml     Finer detail forecast thoughts are often updated at least  2X's a week. Should be an update out today or tomorrow.

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23 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Here's the latest forecast "thoughts" from the CFSv2 and IRI. Note on both ..at least for now, neither are all that optimistic for reaching El Nino Status( At least +1C status ).  Warm Neutral is definitely possible though.

1941586751_Screenshot2023-01-22at10-52-34nino34Mon.gif(PNGImage1100850pixels)Scaled(75).png.05cfa5331ee0661a97d1f352faa601ae.png

512235538_Screenshot2023-01-22at10-57-31IRIInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSocietyJanuary2023QuickLook.png.47bc68756a7016d263262b11bdc9aa9f.png

So, Anyone hoping for a transition into El Nino this year, ..it may not happen -yet-  ..just have to wait and see..

****That said, it is early.. Still have the "Spring Unpredictability Barrier" to get through.. We'll have a better idea of where things could go come June.

Additionally, would look through this excellent thread from Ben Noll on what clues to watch for / other important signs that may point toward El Nino later..  Lots of graphs / gifs.

1140992483_Screenshot2023-01-22at11-03-15BenNoll(@BenNollWeather)_Twitter.png.70af8fccadc7f91488f286ce64624f1d.png

Can also monitor how things are coming together ..or not,  here:  http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml     Finer detail forecast thoughts are often updated at least  2X's a week. Should be an update out today or tomorrow.

One other thing i forgot to add to yesterday's post,  Just because we might head into an El Nino ..or, as it appears for now, a lean warm neutral -of some sort at least- next winter, that doesn't necessarily mean it will play fair, so to say..

As has been demonstrated this year,  ENSO plays by it's own rules and ..if we can see an exceptionally wet outcome, for CA in particular, during an La Nina winter,  We can ( ..and have ) had dry and warm El Nino winters in the southwest / colder and wetter winters for the Pac. N.W. and other areas..

Here's a couple maps laying out all the El Nino Winter Temperature / Precip. composites since 1950.  As you can see, while there are some defining characteristics that can give clues to what an El Nino winter might  look like,  not all warm ENSO episodes are mild ..and / or wet.  El Nino can possess plenty of tricks up it's own sleeves.

All that said, the suggested precip. signal for warm episodes, moderate and / or strong ones esp.,  seem to be a bit more reliable then how temperatures might trend during the same winter.  That said, toss in whatever level of influence on each pattern which may be occurring in a warming world, and the suggested patterns for each episode become more variable / not quite as likely to "follow the rules", so to say ..

Temperatures:

1526822739_Screenshot2023-01-23at12-00-54U.S.wintertemperaturesforeveryElNiosince1950.png.36f472f16255c2af0dc9dae7f0cf74ac.png

Precip:

1419234714_Screenshot2023-01-23at12-00-05U.S.winterprecipitationduringeveryElNiosince1950.png.369ec22da5d4657325cf69527d21cd7f.png

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While there has never historically been a quadruple dip La Niña (4 in a row), I would not rule the possibility out. I think there is a chance we could trend back to neutral and then go straight back into another La Niña again, without an El Niño. The most likely scenario is of course for it to trend neutral by March and then obviously entering El Niño conditions by say June-July however. It’s long overdue now. Although that may not actually happen. A prolonged La Niña period may also be the earth’s response to all the oceanic warming in recent years. That is one theory doing the rounds.

 

Edited by UK_Palms
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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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  • 3 months later...

May ENSO check:  Where ooh where could we be headed?...

Maybe greater than +3?? ..If you believe some of the more bullish the current CFSv2 " thoughts.. A +4 Nino would be pretty crazy if it occurred though.


1263368250_Screenshot2023-05-05at13-26-06nino34Mon.gif(PNGImage1100850pixels).png.33e17c3290df052bf4dd47ef7bccb9e5.png

Warmer and earlier climb compared to the last two big warm cycles for sure..

1810324572_Screenshot2023-05-05at13-29-18BenNollonTwitter.png.0a991d63dfbe867e5456aeb0b1b46cc6.png

116177692_Screenshot2023-05-05at13-30-04BenNollonTwitter.png.89b4efa1cb0cdfee7adce32cb39f1b9e.png


Still, no matter what, or what one might think,  no way to know ..where we go.. for sure. 

...Let alone what a major El Nino will bring, once in full swing.

Since it begins in 10 days, sit back, and watch the East Pacific Hurricane season ahead  for the first clues..



 

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The early '00s was a long but less intense El Nino than 97-98 and 2014 to 2016. It had a lot of mild winters in the NE US. Quad dip La Nina cancelled but a quick jump to El Nino is happening which could pass 2015 intensity, but would that more likely make it shorter than four years? 

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30 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

The early '00s was a long but less intense El Nino than 97-98 and 2014 to 2016. It had a lot of mild winters in the NE US. Quad dip La Nina cancelled but a quick jump to El Nino is happening which could pass 2015 intensity, but would that more likely make it shorter than four years? 

Tough to say for sure, but typically, warm ENSO cycles rarely last more than 2 years from emergence to dipping back into official La Nina territory.

That said, you can have a situation like the 1990s where each year wavers between warm / cool side of Neutral, until a sudden buildup to a big end ( ..in '97 )

Current phase of the PDO can influence such " long and drawn out" ENSO cycles too ..Not all that cold or hot ...until 97 cycle, during the last warm PDO phase, and the 3 year La Nina cycle we
just emerged from, likely egged on by the current Neg. PDO phase for example.. Obviously, other global circulation patterns influence things too.




What is more interesting in terms of longer term ENSO cycles  is what may occur later in this century, as the Pacific continues to warm more -overall.. Will we still see the back and forth between La Nina and El Nino cycles?  or will the back and forth sloshing about the basin eventually settle on one side or the other ( multi year / semi-permanent El Nino-like pattern, for example )

For the west coast, only thing stopping tropical storms from striking ...California for instance ( ...as legit tropical storms / Hurricanes ) is the ..typically pronounced SST temperature gradient between central / southern CA, and the area of the East Pacific southwest of Hawaii, ...not too far west of Baja..  For now at least, thsat Temp. gradient is often pretty strong due to cold upwelling from the CA. Current keeping warmer water further out in the Pacific at roughly the same latitude, from moving closer to / pooling right off shore.

If some longer term "thoughts" on the subject end up correct, that temperature contrast could lessen -maybe quite a bit- as upwelling off Oregon and California ( esp ) slows down / becomes a less significant influence, allowing warmer water to pool off along / build north along..  the coast and out into the Pacific. Less temp gradient over that area means tropical systems may be able to survive for longer periods / reach further north. ...Something which typically only occurs during stronger El Nino cycles right now.

Something like this may happen sooner rather than later, or be preceded by a more La Nina looking Pacific temperature pattern where there are still strong El Ninos, but their " ultimate potential " is tempered by a more La Nina looking set up -overall-. ..until the overall warming of the Pacific overwhelms that signal, triggering a longer term, warmer switch.

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  • 1 month later...

A quick June ENSO update:

Now that we are emerging from the spring predictability barrier time frame, a look at how things look right now..

While all the talk right now is focused on the possibility of a strong El Nino ahead,  i myself aren't all that impressed by what i'm seeing currently..  IMO, having lived through most of them, a potential peak value of +1.5-1.79 is more moderate strength, as a pose to the 82-83 /97-98 monsters.. 

Not to say we're not heading for one, just not currently convinced it will pan out to be the " epic "  warm cycle some headlines are blaring atm.  Part of ..what looks like a downward shift in some of the current model guidance could be related to the persistent cool / cold pool of SSTs off California ..which may be / could temper this El Nino's strength, esp. if persists another 30-60 days.

We'll see how things progress over the summer though. Won't take much to change things..  Weirdo WX pattern over the U.S. atm could be an early sign of... / El Nino influenced.

June IRI update:


1423780955_Screenshot2023-06-16at16-41-47IRIInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSocietyJune2023QuickLook.png.22328f47e7e83d6db1284e349bfff56f.png

Today's look from the CFSv2 from Storm Surf..


357762787_Screenshot2023-06-16at16-42-37nino34Mon.gif(PNGImage1100850pixels)Scaled(74).png.3feba29b504b4fdf5f1934a426ffb933.png

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Start of July ENSO check...  Some things to pay close attention to over the next month:

Current CFSv2 " Thoughts"  ...Note the possible stall out in the circled area, and the ? mark going forward.. Hint: ATM all the talk of a super El Nino this time around, may be premature. Things may not proceed as had been suggested earlier..  *** Though updated thru today, data may be lagging just a tad ( Solid line vs. dashed line in the circled area )

1461358459_Screenshot2023-07-02at23-17-55nino34Mon.gif(PNGImage1100850pixels)Scaled(74).png.042b4fe4dba75c34176f92c546202d00.png

Been watching the weekly videos by Mark Sponsler ( Beforehand apologies if i'm mis-spelling his last name ) over on StormSurf the last couple weeks.. This weeks video follows up on some thoughts he'd had last week regarding the distinct possibility that this year's El Nino may not turn out to be as robust as thought.. ..at least as things are looking for the moment.  Could change going forward of course..

*** Note: If not interested in surf conditions, skip on past to the 18 Minute mark of the Video ( Where the " Long Term outlook " section starts.  Encompasses the rest of it ).  Lots of great, easy to understand explanations of... / quick lessons on how to interpret the various model data used to track how things are coming together, ..or not.. or may later.   No hype, or under playing how things are looking  either..

This weeks Video update:
 



We'll see how things are looking at the end of the month..
 

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While extremely early to know how winter '23-24 may proceed..  I'm not all that excited by what early hints may be suggested by the current NMME update.. 

Does not speak " Super El Nino " language to me at all..   Call me " Bad news Barry " if you choose to,  but,  i like to live in reality  ..and the reality for this winter may be wet -at times, ..W/ the bulk of the coming winters' above normal odds precip concentrated into the January ..and/or Feb. timeframe -, ...but, for the moment at least, to me, this does not look like a repeat of last winter...

Oddly enough, today's NMME update seems to follow what the CanSIPS L.R. Models have been hinting at lately, Vs. what the  CFS  L.R. thoughts are stuck on..  Who will get it right????

Again, it's early.  Guaranteed, there will be tweaks to these maps going forward..  ....We'll see how the NMME's " thoughts " look come October..







November:

Precip:


614626362_Screenshot2023-07-07at09-17-49Lead4prate.thumb.png.7841eca718b5e8ca9fd37c7c3998b667.png

Temps:

1298570759_Screenshot2023-07-07at09-00-18Lead3tmp2m.thumb.png.a23ffabf6ee62d3d1047b539b84be15a.png



December:

Precip:


2086914430_Screenshot2023-07-07at09-18-47Lead5prate.thumb.png.04d735e1ce54491c3223e5b82fa9fdd3.png

Temps:


301605518_Screenshot2023-07-07at09-18-16Lead4tmp2m.thumb.png.e4c70eb04b1a501798dfbe4a9acefbd3.png

January:

Precip:


128581574_Screenshot2023-07-07at09-19-26Lead6prate.thumb.png.081441bd7889986f6938b140086fdef5.png

Temps:

1873339877_Screenshot2023-07-07at09-19-46Lead6tmp2m.thumb.png.b98e73b3fca96ea29bb1ee4ce2eef3c3.png

February:


Precip:


1553703955_Screenshot2023-07-07at09-20-08Lead7prate.thumb.png.eeade6da24af07d70de2fc0e4633be73.png


Temps:

32091880_Screenshot2023-07-07at09-20-23Lead7tmp2m.thumb.png.efe939546c6263a199e700281b161c35.png
 

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  • 2 weeks later...

July IRI ENSO update..  


933745538_Screenshot2023-07-20at11-31-54IRIInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSocietyJuly2023QuickLook.png.1694f04eff972e28385b37aee7bf93fb.png


Watching this closely because, despite an apparent stall atm,  CFS upgraded it's forecast based upon a forecast upswing in Westerly wind activity ( which could generate more Kelvin Waves, thus pushing more warm water east, adding to.. / reinforcing the warm pool off Ecuador ) suggested from about now, until at least the end of August, possibly beyond. .. It is back in strong to very strong territory for the upcoming winter..  Skeptical / not sold on this idea just yet.  

We'll see what Mark thinks come his Sunday update Video.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Lasted Storm Surf  Vid. update from Mark Sponsler  as we start August..  No video next week, so we'll see where things are when he posts the next ..in 2 weeks. August update from the IRI should be out around approx. the same time as well.   


As usual, skip the surf data portion at the start of the Video if not interested..  ENSO outlook part is a bit long this week but covers a lot of important points to consider..

 



Have to say, completely agree with his thoughts shared..  Having some serious doubts about where things are headed..  " Something - El Nino / -ish " ahead this winter?? ..yes..  Massively hyped " Mega Nino "?? .. don't think so..  for now.. 
 

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