Opinions, And Analysis On Next Week's North American Cold Blast

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

Hi Everyone,

I am curious what the rest of you have to say about next week's cold blast here in North America?  What are your gut feelings and analysis of the situation?  From what I have seen and heard, there have been fluctuations going back and forth from warmer to colder, and some discrepancy between the American and European Models.

John

[Jimbean]

My gut feeling is that it will be like the average late December cold event that we have had in years past. 

[kinzyjr]

One big break we could catch is if we have some cloud cover for at least part of the night.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

17 hours ago, Jimbean said:

My gut feeling is that it will be like the average late December cold event that we have had in years past. 

I hope you are right.  I hope temps in my yard do not drop below 35F.  And my two in ground Coconut Palms could even take a light to moderate frost and be okay, and probably most of my potted Coconut Palms too, and even my in ground Christmas Palms that saw far worse than that last winter.

John

[Foxpalms]

6 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

I hope you are right.  I hope temps in my yard do not drop below 35F.  And my two in ground Coconut Palms could even take a light to moderate frost and be okay, and probably most of my potted Coconut Palms too, and even my in ground Christmas Palms that saw far worse than that last winter.

John

On the British weather forecast app it's showing Corpus Christi going down to 23f, but most of the forecasts are showing it will be between 30-26f.

[WisTex]

Forecast for Flour Bluff/North Padre Island area, Night of Dec 22-Morning of Dec 23 from various weather apps.

At Naval Air Station from Weather Channel daily :  31F on the 22nd

At Naval Air Station from Weather Channel hourly:  32F on morning 23rd @ 7:00 AM

At Naval Air Station from Accuweather:  34F on night of 22nd (I have observed that Accuweather's extended forecasts are usually higher than what the actual turns out to be.)

At Naval Air Station from Willy Weather: 31F on the 22nd

At Naval Air Station from Fox Weather: 32F on the 22nd

At Naval Air Station from National Weather Service: 32F on the 22nd

At Flour Bluff from Weatherbug: 35F on the 22nd with comment for night: "Much colder with lows in upper 20s."

At North Padre Island from Weather Underground daily: 32F on the 22nd

At North Padre Island from Weather Underground hourly: 33F on morning 23rd @ 7:00 AM

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by WisTex

[WisTex]

Here are Dec 22nd city wide forecasts for Corpus Christi, difference from Flour Bluff/North Padre Island forecasts is the influence of the Laguna Madre and the Gulf.

Local channel KRIS-TV: 27F

Local channel KIII-TV: 29F

Local channel KZTV: 28F

National Weather Service at airport CRP: Mostly clear, low around 26F.

 

[Ivanos1982]

There is so much hype about this all over the news in Houston Texas, the news stations know most people want a 'white Christmas' so that's what they are using as a base to get people to click and read their stories. Some are even saying we are expecting snow in Houston on Christmas Eve. I have been following the European Models and they change so much it's hard to really see what might happen. At this point it's just going to be a waiting game. The forecasts have been all over the place and mostly wrong all summer. They kept saying we would have rain and we had a very bad drought. I'm just enjoying my garden as much as I can because once a frost happens, everything looks dead until spring. Hoping it will just be a regular zone 9A freeze for us.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Ivanos1982

[Meangreen94z]

Showing 14°F here north of Austin and 21°F South of Houston in Pearland last I looked. 

[JohnAndSancho]

Wow. When I looked earlier today, The Weather Channel's app (once i moved past the 11 million pop ups) said 25. Now it says 16. To make it even more fun, the city of Huntsville is growing rapidly and Entergy (our power company) has been doing scheduled power outages to "upgrade circuits". They did their scheduled upgrade this past Thursday on the southbound side of I45 and I worked for literally 24 hours straight and this coming Thursday they're supposed to do the northbound side (including my apartment complex) so this is absolutely going to suck. Just to add to the suck, my apartments haven't had hot water in a week due to boiler pump issues. 

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

14 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

On the British weather forecast app it's showing Corpus Christi going down to 23f, but most of the forecasts are showing it will be between 30-26f.

Thank you.  I am hoping that the temps stay above freezing in the Corpus Christi area.

John

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

11 hours ago, WisTex said:

Forecast for Flour Bluff/North Padre Island area, Night of Dec 22-Morning of Dec 23 from various weather apps.

At Naval Air Station from Weather Channel daily :  31F on the 22nd

At Naval Air Station from Weather Channel hourly:  32F on morning 23rd @ 7:00 AM

At Naval Air Station from Accuweather:  34F on night of 22nd (I have observed that Accuweather's extended forecasts are usually higher than what the actual turns out to be.)

At Naval Air Station from Willy Weather: 31F on the 22nd

At Naval Air Station from Fox Weather: 32F on the 22nd

At Naval Air Station from National Weather Service: 32F on the 22nd

At Flour Bluff from Weatherbug: 35F on the 22nd with comment for night: "Much colder with lows in upper 20s."

At North Padre Island from Weather Underground daily: 32F on the 22nd

At North Padre Island from Weather Underground hourly: 33F on morning 23rd @ 7:00 AM

 

Thanks, I am hoping it stays above freezing here.  As of last nigh, the National Weather Service was predicting 34F for the airport on Friday morning, which would probably mean 37F or 38F at my place in Flour Bluff.

John

 

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

I hope all these forecasts for a BAD FREEZE are blown!!!  3 bad winters in a row, would be unlike anything I have ever seen in South Texas in my life of 53 years.  Even in the bad 1980's, there were not bad winters back to back, and certainly not 3 in a row.

John

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

I hope all these forecasts for a BAD FREEZE are blown!!!  3 bad winters in a row, would be unlike anything I have ever seen in South Texas in my life of 53 years.  Even in the bad 1980's, there were not bad winters back to back, and certainly not 3 in a row.

John

Yes, 3 below average winters in a row is just ridiculous. My annual average minimum (suburban west Houston) for the past 30 years is ~26F and the past two winters hit 12F, 25F, and now the forecast for next week is 19F. I was prepared to protect a few zone 10 pushes but now I'm scrambling to protect all of the new zone 9 stuff. Absolutely ridiculous!

It's like the Arctic express has a bullseye on Houston...even Louisiana is escaping the brunt of the freeze...very envious of you folks in the east. It seems lightning does strike the same place twice! 

Galveston has a 30 year average minimum of 32F and is forecast for 24F next week...after hitting 18/19F in 2021. #endrant

[Sabal_Louisiana]

I hope all these forecasts for a BAD FREEZE are blown!!!  3 bad winters in a row, would be unlike anything I have ever seen in South Texas in my life of 53 years.  Even in the bad 1980's, there were not bad winters back to back, and certainly not 3 in a row.

Technically, not 3 years in a row but:

Jan 1981 Siberian Express brought mid to upper teens to northern Fla

Jan 1982 Mid teens in Houston and New Orleans

Winter 82-83 No bad freezes only because of strong El Nino

Dec 1983 devastating freeze in Texas 20F in Brownsville

Jan 1985 subzero F to southern Georgia,  7 in Jacksonville

Those were the 'dark ages' for palm growers in the South.

Definitely regressing in recent years though with more big freezes in the south central US.  Winters of 2018, 2021, 2022 and now 2022-23 seeing notable arctic outbreaks.

[Matthew92]

It's interesting because here in FL: February 1996 was seemingly the last time HARD freezing temps went down to places like Orlando (it got around 23 deg there) and south.  Jan 2010 and Dec 2010 was very cold, but more for duration and there weren't solid low 20's in Orlando like Feb 1996 or one of the 1980's freezes.

For the FL Panhandle, our really bad winter was '13-'14 (January '14 double whammy of teens early in the month followed by a winter precip event+entire day under cloud cover and the temp didn't get above freezing a whole day at the end of the month). Then Jan 2015 was pretty bad with some upper teens. Jan 2018 had some upper teens as well but not extremely devastating for palms and many zone 9 palms survived quite well in the microclimates near the coast. 

Also I'll point out that while January 2014 was brutal here in the FL Panhandle, there was an odd, abrupt delineation that kept the peninsula from experiencing hardly any significant freezing temps (only light freeze around far upper peninsula). 

While this past January (2022) did to an extent, Jan 2018 was really the last cold event that pushed solid below freezing temperatures through a lot of the peninsula: and really affected zone pushing plantings and zone 10 palms significantly. 

We sure have missed out on some of the intensity of the cold you guys in TX have had in recent years- especially February 2021....

[Ivanos1982]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

Yes, 3 below average winters in a row is just ridiculous. My annual average minimum (suburban west Houston) for the past 30 years is ~26F and the past two winters hit 12F, 25F, and now the forecast for next week is 19F. I was prepared to protect a few zone 10 pushes but now I'm scrambling to protect all of the new zone 9 stuff. Absolutely ridiculous!

It's like the Arctic express has a bullseye on Houston...even Louisiana is escaping the brunt of the freeze...very envious of you folks in the east. It seems lightning does strike the same place twice! 

Galveston has a 30 year average minimum of 32F and is forecast for 24F next week...after hitting 18/19F in 2021. #endrant

I knew it was gonna happen. This is why people don't plant palms in this area. Or tropicals. it's too stressful dealing with these arctic blasts and spending all this money to replace. Plus the drought this year killed what the winter didn't finish killing. Now with this cold front, whatever the summer drought didnt kill will kill. It feels as if the desert is moving east from the west

Edited December 18, 2022 by Ivanos1982

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

Yes, 3 below average winters in a row is just ridiculous. My annual average minimum (suburban west Houston) for the past 30 years is ~26F and the past two winters hit 12F, 25F, and now the forecast for next week is 19F. I was prepared to protect a few zone 10 pushes but now I'm scrambling to protect all of the new zone 9 stuff. Absolutely ridiculous!

It's like the Arctic express has a bullseye on Houston...even Louisiana is escaping the brunt of the freeze...very envious of you folks in the east. It seems lightning does strike the same place twice! 

Galveston has a 30 year average minimum of 32F and is forecast for 24F next week...after hitting 18/19F in 2021. #endrant

It is RIDICULOUS, but I have read that as the Polar Ice Cap continues to melt at a phenomenal rate, that HORRIBLE Arctic outbreaks like this will continue to occur, even with a warming planet, because the normal weather patterns that keep the bad Arctic air up north are in CHAOS and TOTAL TURMOIL!!!!

John

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

1 hour ago, Ivanos1982 said:

I knew it was gonna happen. This is why people don't plant palms in this area. Or tropicals. it's too stressful dealing with these arctic blasts and spending all this money to replace. Plus the drought this year killed what the winter didn't finish killing. Now with this cold front, whatever the summer drought didnt kill will kill. It feels as if the desert is moving east from the west

Funny you said that about the desert moving east.  I read somewhere a while back that with Man Made Climate Change, the western U.S. desert IS indeed moving eastward, upwards of 100 miles per decade is what I read!!!  And that would probably help to explain the more intense and more frequent BAD ARCTIC outbreaks in Texas, as the humidity lessens in the wintertime due to the eastward advancing desert, and thus the dew points dropping with lack of moisture in the air, this would exacerbate the BAD ARCTIC fronts making them WORSE than they otherwise would be if we still had more humidity in the air.  Lower dew points means lower overall temps!!!

John

[Jimbean]

I'll probably be a dissenting voice here but I would have no problem if a record breaking cold outbreak happened in peninsular Florida.  I think that would be a good indication on what is hardy long tern and what is not.  That way I know exactly what I can get away with and where. 

[Matthew92]

40 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

I'll probably be a dissenting voice here but I would have no problem if a record breaking cold outbreak happened in peninsular Florida.  I think that would be a good indication on what is hardy long tern and what is not.  That way I know exactly what I can get away with and where. 

Also something I've thought about is that it will help cut down on tropical invasive species that are moving up the peninsula.... 

[bubba]

John’s question demonstrates to me that too much information available to non-professionals combined with the attempt of our press to inspire clicks, creates needless hysteria. Obviously, after what the RGV experienced last year, it is not surprising that folks living in that region are easy prey for this phenomenon.

This certainly does not mean that we will not experience arctic incursions from time to time in accordance with our particular regions history. Richard Travis’s outstanding historical summaries of what has occurred in the RGV should be considered by everyone attempting to grow tropicals in that region. That stated, if I lived in the RGV, I would continue to grow the tropical plants capable in that region, fully accepting that they may be short-lived. This mindset may not be for everyone.

My analysis of the pending Christmas 2022 artic incursion is that it is far from certain and most likely doubtful. The latest weather underground for our region predicts 71/43F for 12/23/2022 and 63/58F for Christmas day. Currently our average temperature for December 2022 is 72.92F with a high temperature of 83° F and a low temperature of 60° F.  A cool down would be greatly appreciated!

North (including the panhandle), Central and South Florida are all animals of their own. I spoke with Sarge yesterday out in the Glades to determine his opinion. He laughed at me when I asked if they were considering choppers for the upcoming Christmas arctic incursion. We grow tropicals for hobby and fun. Out in the Glades, it is money and serious as a heart attack!
 

 

 

 

[RedRabbit]

2 hours ago, Jimbean said:

I'll probably be a dissenting voice here but I would have no problem if a record breaking cold outbreak happened in peninsular Florida.  I think that would be a good indication on what is hardy long tern and what is not.  That way I know exactly what I can get away with and where. 

I agree. I hope we don’t have another once in a lifetime freeze like 1962, but I’ll take another 2010 or a 1980s freeze. Sooner or later it will happen so we might as well know where we really stand. I know my palms in Westchase are in trouble under that scenario, but I suspect the ones in Laurel will hold up. We’ll see.

One thing worth considering though is a record low doesn’t mean it won’t ever get colder so it’s plausible the 1962 lows eventually don’t hold. 😬

Edited December 18, 2022 by RedRabbit

[WisTex]

Most people who plant palms do so as a landscape plant, not as a hobby.  The recognition that palms such as Foxtail and Pygmy Date, need to be weather protected is not there.  When nurseries or landscapers promote palms that freeze off during a cold weather outbreak between 28F and 20F, even if it happens once in a decade over more cold tolerant types, it dissuades further use of palms as a replacement plant.

Edited December 18, 2022 by WisTex

[__nevii]

12 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

I hope all these forecasts for a BAD FREEZE are blown!!!  3 bad winters in a row, would be unlike anything I have ever seen in South Texas in my life of 53 years.  Even in the bad 1980's, there were not bad winters back to back, and certainly not 3 in a row.

John

 

10 hours ago, Xenon said:

Yes, 3 below average winters in a row is just ridiculous. My annual average minimum (suburban west Houston) for the past 30 years is ~26F and the past two winters hit 12F, 25F, and now the forecast for next week is 19F. I was prepared to protect a few zone 10 pushes but now I'm scrambling to protect all of the new zone 9 stuff. Absolutely ridiculous!

It's like the Arctic express has a bullseye on Houston...even Louisiana is escaping the brunt of the freeze...very envious of you folks in the east. It seems lightning does strike the same place twice! 

Galveston has a 30 year average minimum of 32F and is forecast for 24F next week...after hitting 18/19F in 2021. #endrant

The 21-22 winter did not seem that bad? Perhaps below average, but still much closer to normal than this coming front, and especially Feb 21.

It does seem that the recent freezes have been focused more intensely in South Central states, including Texas, as @Matthew92alluded to. Whereas the cold events earlier in the 2000s/early2 2010s were focused more on the Southeast (or, at least, had much greater spread of wealth towards those areas).

However, there is still spread across the various models regarding the extent of the cold. At the time of this post: only the GFS supports a solution focused in South Central, whereas other models like Euro, Icon, UKMet, CMC support a farther eastward initial spread, at least. And all of them still have the leading trough progressing well eastward, meaning that the deep freeze spreads eastward regardless for Christmas Eve.

Also, this cold event seems to be "shot" associated with dry weather. Much in contrast to the wintry precip of the Feb 21 winter.

[__nevii]

8 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

I knew it was gonna happen. This is why people don't plant palms in this area. Or tropicals. it's too stressful dealing with these arctic blasts and spending all this money to replace. Plus the drought this year killed what the winter didn't finish killing. Now with this cold front, whatever the summer drought didnt kill will kill. It feels as if the desert is moving east from the west

The dry spell was bad, though losses were minimized compared to 2011 thanks to good rainfalls that came later in August through early September. And, as I mentioned prior, this cold wave isn't associated with wintry precip in Texas, which should minimize damage.

But yes, it does feel like the west Texas high plains/desert is "functionally" extending its influence eastward, given the freezes and dry spells (in relation to the averages).

That said, tropicals can still be planted: it is just that the focus will have to be sabals en-masse, until these wintry freezes back off for another half century plus of warmth.

Edited December 18, 2022 by __nevii

[Xerarch]

40 minutes ago, WisTex said:

Most people who plant palms do so as a landscape plant, not as a hobby.  The recognition that palms such as Foxtail and Pygmy Date, need to be weather protected is not there.  When nurseries or landscapers promote palms that freeze off during a cold weather outbreak between 28F and 20F, even if it happens once in a decade over more cold tolerant types, it dissuades further use of palms as a replacement plant.

I agree, I've seen a lot of locals going into nurseries and just asking for a palm that won't freeze, so they go home with a Trachycarpus, which is way overkill for here as far as hardiness, nothing wrong with trachies but staff at local nursery said they were welling a lot of them, but there are quite a few species as options that did not die in 2021.  People just want something they will never have to worry about protecting or losing.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

2 hours ago, __nevii said:

 

The 21-22 winter did not seem that bad? Perhaps below average, but still much closer to normal than this coming front, and especially Feb 21.

It does seem that the recent freezes have been focused more intensely in South Central states, including Texas, as @Matthew92alluded to. Whereas the cold events earlier in the 2000s/early2 2010s were focused more on the Southeast (or, at least, had much greater spread of wealth towards those areas).

However, there is still spread across the various models regarding the extent of the cold. At the time of this post: only the GFS supports a solution focused in South Central, whereas other models like Euro, Icon, UKMet, CMC support a farther eastward initial spread, at least. And all of them still have the leading trough progressing well eastward, meaning that the deep freeze spreads eastward regardless for Christmas Eve.

Also, this cold event seems to be "shot" associated with dry weather. Much in contrast to the wintry precip of the Feb 21 winter.

Last winter was really bad by South Texas Coastal standards, at least here in Corpus Christi.  Where I live on the east side of Corpus Christi, in Flour Bluff near the water, at approximately 27.6 N Latitude, I can normally go for 2 or 3 years at a time without a single freeze, and normally only have about 4 or 5 nights in the 30'sF each winter, but last winter, I had 4 freezes in my yard, with the coldest down to 28F, which qualifies as a hard freeze, and a total of about 20 nights in the 30'sF in my yard, which is shocking to have that many nights in the 30'sF this far south and so close to the water (Laguna Madre just 6/10 of a mile to my east, and the deeper and wider Corpus Christi Bay just about 3.5 miles to my north).  So, as such an extreme departure from normal, even though the absolute minimum temp wasn't too bad, it still qualifies in my book as a BAD WINTER!!!

John

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

2 hours ago, Xerarch said:

I agree, I've seen a lot of locals going into nurseries and just asking for a palm that won't freeze, so they go home with a Trachycarpus, which is way overkill for here as far as hardiness, nothing wrong with trachies but staff at local nursery said they were welling a lot of them, but there are quite a few species as options that did not die in 2021.  People just want something they will never have to worry about protecting or losing.

And unfortunately, local nursery owners DO NOT want to hire a knowledgeable palm and tropical plant specialist like me.  Instead of local nursery owners looking at someone like me as an asset to their nursery, I think they look at people like me as some kind of threat to them, so therefore, they ONLY want to hire people even more ignorant than them!!!

John

P.S.  Can you tell I am NOT very impressed with the owners/managers of local nurseries, LOL!!!???

[__nevii]

32 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

ere in Corpus Christi.  Where I live on the east side of Corpus Christi, in Flour Bluff near the water, at approximately 27.6 N Latitude, I can normally go for 2 or 3 years at a time without a single freeze, and normally only have about 4 or 5 nights in the 30'sF each winter, but last winter, I had 4 freezes in my yard, with the coldest down to 28F, which qualifies as a hard freeze, and a total of about 20 nights in the 30'sF in my yard, which is shocking to have that many nights in the 30'sF this far south and so close to the water (Laguna Madre just 6/10 of a mile to my east, and the deeper and wider Corpus Christi Bay just about 3.5 miles to my north).  So, as such an extreme departure from normal, even though the absolute minimum temp wasn't too bad, it still qualifies in my book as a BAD WINTER!!!

Honestly, now that I think of it, even the lightest of freezes would still be problematic at this time for coastal Texas, let alone any colder solutions.

The reason is because I actually was enjoying the period of "regreening" that started from late July/early August, when rains came that relieved the early summer heat/dry spell that @Ivanos1982mentioned. Even a light freeze would cause much dormancy/burning: not as detrimental as a deep freeze of course, but still wiping away the lush verdancy as seen late summer and fall.

Though it was much warmer than normal December so far, the previous November did have a cool spell during the middle of the month. The hope is that the cool spell from November, as well as this current cool spell prior to the coming Arctic blast, will be enough to induce some slow-down/dormancy, so as to prevent the worst of effects.

Edited December 18, 2022 by __nevii

[__nevii]

Don't look now at the CMC: brutal.

[Ivanos1982]

Another problem is how stressful it becomes to be going out in the cold and wind to 'cover' plants and rip out the ones you want to save. I have a lot of bananas and when they die, the trash that I have to take out is immense. The predictions change by the minute and go lower and lower which can be nerve racking and cause a lot of anxiety. I belong to a local gardening group in Houston and everyone is freaking out. Even my friends who are traveling are asking me to go water their plants they brought in. The temperatures now in Houston are predicted to go as low as the Feb 2021 freeze, about 16 degrees. The city is not prepared for these temperatures and yes like others have said before, the warm weather is causing these blasts to come further south. We had a very warm first of December. Went up to 80 degrees which was crazy. This is probably going to happen every year or every other year. If people want to waste money buying all these tropicals, then that's on them. I do it because I love the look and it is the only way I feel sane in the summer heat. People en masses will probably not do this anymore. I'm tempted to move to Mexico or Central America at this point.

[WisTex]

P.S.  Can you tell I am NOT very impressed with the owners/managers of local nurseries, LOL!!!???

 

Me too.  :)

[WisTex]

Opinion of an antitranspirant plant sprays like Wilt Stop or Leaf Guardian as an additional protection against cold damage?

[__nevii]

2 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

The temperatures now in Houston are predicted to go as low as the Feb 2021 freeze, about 16 degrees. The city is not prepared for these temperatures and yes like others have said before, the warm weather is causing these blasts to come further south. We had a very warm first of December. Went up to 80 degrees which was crazy. This is probably going to happen every year or every other year. If people want to waste money buying all these tropicals, then that's on them. I do it because I love the look and it is the only way I feel sane in the summer heat. People en masses will probably not do this anymore. I'm tempted to move to Mexico or Central America at this point.

Yes, these cold snaps are definitely stressful and detrimental without a doubt. Then again, those mid-teens of 2021 in Houston occurred given a very extensive snowpack across the Northern Hemisphere (and especially within Texas), and much deeper into winter (i.e. when Siberian cold is most intense). So I'm holding out hope that the forecast for the current cold snap is overdone, especially with quite a few solutions still keeping Houston in the low 20s at worst, though (say, 21-23°F).

I definitely understand looking into more reliable warm climates too. Start deep in Campeche/Caribbean straits and then go beyond, because these North American cold snaps have brought freezes even into the tropics of Tampico and far northern Cuba.

... and after all this, I bet that December as a whole will still end up above average in Houston, due to the warm first half of the month.

Edited December 18, 2022 by __nevii

[Xenon]

 

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[Foxpalms]

During our cold blast this week the lowest here was 28f at 51N with highs only in the mid to high 30s. Being an island really helps. The Scilly isles however didn't even go below 40f despite the arctic air mass. Much colder than the average winter cold spell and now some places even at 27N next to the sea in Texas seem to be getting even colder. Why can't the arctic air stay where it belongs, the arctic! Hopefully the palms survive especially the coconuts and royals.

[kinzyjr]

19 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Also I'll point out that while January 2014 was brutal here in the FL Panhandle, there was an odd, abrupt delineation that kept the peninsula from experiencing hardly any significant freezing temps (only light freeze around far upper peninsula).

I remember talking with @palmsOrl about that winter on the way to Selby Botanical Gardens.  It was kind of odd when people would talk about the freeze of 2014 and I'm sitting there thinking "What freeze?"

The forecast here continues its wobble between 32F and 34F.  I'm good with that wobble.

3 hours ago, Xenon said:

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How much has it decreased over the weekend?

5 hours ago, WisTex said:

Opinion of an antitranspirant plant sprays like Wilt Stop or Leaf Guardian as an additional protection against cold damage?

Honestly, if they worked really well, I would think stores would be selling out of that stuff everywhere right now.  I'd be glad to be wrong about it.

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

 

How much has it decreased over the weekend?

 

From 26F to 24F to 21F to 18F to 15F...maybe it'll be 10F by tomorrow 🤣. The models have the Siberian Express making a beeline for the upper TX Gulf with freezing temperatures even way offshore. 

Looks like this freeze will erase all recovery of anything zone 9ish that managed to survive/resprout from Feb 2021 if not cause some casualties itself. 

Might be bad further east, but can't be any worse than this 😆. Central/south Houston is forecast for 17F despite a 1991-2020 average annual extreme minimum of ~28F. That's a -11F anomaly just two years after a -13F anomaly....zone 9B is now zone 8! Almost can't believe the numbers I'm seeing!!

[Palmarum]

I have seen a huge spread of potential lows from various weather forecasts, not sure what to expect... except that it will be cold here next Saturday night, Sunday morning; depends on how far that cold pushes south. This is the cold spell we usually see in S. Florida in mid-January. I fear for places in Texas, they could get sub-zero temps.

Ryan