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Polar Vortex


Las Palmas Norte

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Wednesdays high will be 19Fwith a low of 9F where on AccuWeather says 21/12F. Regardless it’s downright freakin cold 🥶

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Has a low of 22°F / -5.5°C overnight. I typically round down so say -6°C. Very light snow now and not a whole lot expected. Overnight lows are more of an issue for the next few nights.

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4 minutes ago, southpacific73 said:

Wednesdays high will be 19Fwith a low of 9F where on AccuWeather says 21/12F. Regardless it’s downright freakin cold 🥶

Christmas day looks like a rainy washout.

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1 hour ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

Christmas day looks like a rainy washout.

Yup same here on the mainland but we have to first deal with a couple rounds of snow. 10-20cm expected overnight! Time to exercise the back 🙄

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On 12/7/2022 at 7:14 PM, Banana Belt said:

Good news is, the La nina is coming to an end in month or so.  Neutral conditions up to next summer with El Nino coming after that.figure07.thumb.gif.d2e182955052d93a65da154b917cc2b7.gif

Do you have a link to this article? The thought of some evidence-based hope for higher probability of normal (or even warmer) winters in the near future is quite motivating at this point in time. 

EDIT: NVM, found it.  
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/#:~:text=ENSO Alert System Status%3A La,% chance of ENSO-neutral.

Edited by Swolte
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1 hour ago, Swolte said:

Do you have a link to this article? The thought of some evidence-based hope for higher probability of normal (or even warmer) winters in the near future is quite motivating at this point in time. 

EDIT: NVM, found it.  
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/#:~:text=ENSO Alert System Status%3A La,% chance of ENSO-neutral.

Sun spot activity is rising and will continue to rise for several years, part of the 14 year peak to peak solar cycle.  As energy from the sun rises the earth receives more energy, the Pacific being the largest body of water receives the greater part of that energy striking the earth and El Nino returns.  sunspot-number-as-of-May2-2022-e1651495209753.png.e267d321dc97dfcc1a8cc5cb257b5411.png

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Big dumping of snow here on the Big Island last night. It dropped below freezing here on Dec 18 and has been hovering around -3C to -5C ever since. Kinda happy to see some snow, especially dry fluffy snow like this as its an excellent insulator. It was fairly dry before the freeze too, which will hopefully help everything out. Lows are forecasted to dip to -7C to -8C for us over the next couple nights, mirroring last years awful winter... yay.... We will see what actually end up happening though as the forecast is still flip-flopping. At least the freeze will be short lived this time with a big warm up coming on Friday. Anyways, here are some snowy palms doing their best to hide themselves from the cold.

Trachycarpus fortunei
IMG_5709.thumb.jpg.eb2d9e31f0ae05647a3dde64d149d800.jpg
 

Butia odorata
IMG_5710.thumb.jpg.d98a933355e5f747277ef8489a4feb3a.jpg

 

Sabal minor

IMG_5711.thumb.jpg.f2c116be654e77e1e482140e68fe97b8.jpg

 

Phoenix theophrasti

IMG_5712.thumb.jpg.10f6af25e82806215c1e21b32649277e.jpg

 

Sabal palmetto

IMG_5713.thumb.jpg.8bf4529d4fe193e6edbd4e6e731eb77e.jpg

 

Chamaerops humilis 'cerifera'

IMG_5715.thumb.jpg.a40126f146deb92ef9f24df6e8c0a08c.jpg
 

Snowy greenhouse and my neighbors palms.

IMG_5714.thumb.jpg.62a8b80159e31c7f37d208ebdd004162.jpg

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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Got dumped on last night in metro Vancouver with 30cm of powdery snow. City basically shutdown as we dig out. At least the plants have insulation from the arctic winds! Hopefully everyone is else doing much better?

BA71AF92-7758-4F5B-BC0B-EA667E7F0B13.jpeg

E416F68A-31D8-4632-8246-C84A240FFAAE.jpeg

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I think one of the main reasons for the recurrence of those events is the warmer temperatures at the poles. From my personal observations in real life and in climate data I conclude that we get more extreme events more often almost everywhere, but especially with the cold spells it seems to be that the polar vortex is so weak, so often that it's just tottering around. This isn't anything new, but it happens more often now. What I also noticed is that even if we get these events more often with new records locally, the masses of air don't seem to be as cold as they would have been a couple of decades ago. I'm more focused on Europe so I observed this here the most but comparing the same type of weather events with certain high and low pressure systems plus the wind directions and so on from several decades at least in Europe it's definitely the case that the coldest temperatures aren't as cold as they were in the past. It's just a couple of degrees but in general it's a trend upwards. Also when I look at normal winter weather conditions in Europe the temperatures are generally higher than they used to be in the past. It's just a small margin but it is there and what's interesting is that the difference seems to be the biggest where it is the coldest. So for example looking at Eastern Europe you see way "warmer" winters all the time, but it doesn't look or feel like it because they are still very cold. And for us in other regions I believe we get used to the slow rise of temperatures and the cold spells stay in mind much severe than they probably are, if you see it as a tendency over the years. I think it's just because they happen more often and more random. On the other hand heat waves don't just seem to happen more often but also to be much hotter. So what I imagine is that the poles are going to heat up even more and even faster with the polar vortex getting weaker and even more weaker with time, while causing more frequent but less cold cold spells reaching randomly into regions where they weren't common until the whole polar region stays so mild in winter that we get a massive warming with climate zones growing much further north. THIS IS JUST MY OBSERVATION AND MY OPINION I'M NOT A SCIENTIST AND I'M NOT SAYING THAT ANYONE HAS TO EVALUATE IT THE SAME. I'm sorry I'm just pointing it out, because these days... you know... 😅😂

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Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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27 minutes ago, Hortulanus said:

I think one of the main reasons for the recurrence of those events is the warmer temperatures at the poles. From my personal observations in real life and in climate data I conclude that we get more extreme events more often almost everywhere, but especially with the cold spells it seems to be that the polar vortex is so weak, so often that it's just tottering around. This isn't anything new, but it happens more often now. What I also noticed is that even if we get these events more often with new records locally, the masses of air don't seem to be as cold as they would have been a couple of decades ago. I'm more focused on Europe so I observed this here the most but comparing the same type of weather events with certain high and low pressure systems plus the wind directions and so on from several decades at least in Europe it's definitely the case that the coldest temperatures aren't as cold as they were in the past. It's just a couple of degrees but in general it's a trend upwards. Also when I look at normal winter weather conditions in Europe the temperatures are generally higher than they used to be in the past. It's just a small margin but it is there and what's interesting is that the difference seems to be the biggest where it is the coldest. So for example looking at Eastern Europe you see way "warmer" winters all the time, but it doesn't look or feel like it because they are still very cold. And for us in other regions I believe we get used to the slow rise of temperatures and the cold spells stay in mind much severe than they probably are, if you see it as a tendency over the years. I think it's just because they happen more often and more random. On the other hand heat waves don't just seem to happen more often but also to be much hotter. So what I imagine is that the poles are going to heat up even more and even faster with the polar vortex getting weaker and even more weaker with time, while causing more frequent but less cold cold spells reaching randomly into regions where they weren't common until the whole polar region stays so mild in winter that we get a massive warming with climate zones growing much further north. THIS IS JUST MY OBSERVATION AND MY OPINION I'M NOT A SCIENTIST AND I'M NOT SAYING THAT ANYONE HAS TO EVALUATE IT THE SAME. I'm sorry I'm just pointing it out, because these days... you know... 😅😂

I always tell myself… the weather I see out the window at this moment in time has been repeated 1000’s of time before at this exact same location in the past.  I’m honored to experience what I can. 

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26 minutes ago, RJ said:

I always tell myself… the weather I see out the window at this moment in time has been repeated 1000’s of time before at this exact same location in the past.  I’m honored to experience what I can. 

Well that's beautiful and it might be a good way to live, but I'm a very analytic person. Analysing gives me joy, because everything about everything is so interesting. 😊

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Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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Palm trees once grew in the Arctic, not just once but repeatedly several times in the past fossils suggest. Time is a difficult concept to fully grasp, even by theoretical physicists and geologists.  Arguments arise often over the discussion of time, whether it be scientific or theosophical.  How can anyone grasp time anymore than understanding distances between objects in our universe.  But regardless, if Palms once grew in  the arctic what happened to them?  Are there relatives of these palms still around someplace?  What happened back then?

https://www.sabinocanyon.com/palm-trees-in-alaska-a-reminder-of-the-earths-changing-climate/

https://www.gi.alaska.edu/alaska-science-forum/tropical-fossils-alaska

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Hortulanus said:

Well that's beautiful and it might be a good way to live, but I'm a very analytic person. Analysing gives me joy, because everything about everything is so interesting. 😊

And so am I … the reason I view it this way is because the snapshot we(you) can analyze is so minute in the grand scenario.  Enlarge the axis by ten fold or even 1000 fold. Once I realized this I appreciated it that much more 😏

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4 minutes ago, RJ said:

And so am I … the reason I view it this way is because the snapshot we(you) can analyze is so minute in the grand scenario.  Enlarge the axis by ten fold or even 1000 fold. Once I realized this I appreciated it that much more 😏

Well that's true. But for the better or the worse. Experiencing big changes in such a short period of time is what makes it exciting. 😊

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Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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34 minutes ago, Banana Belt said:

Palm trees once grew in the Arctic, not just once but repeatedly several times in the past fossils suggest. Time is a difficult concept to fully grasp, even by theoretical physicists and geologists.  Arguments arise often over the discussion of time, whether it be scientific or theosophical.  How can anyone grasp time anymore than understanding distances between objects in our universe.  But regardless, if Palms once grew in  the arctic what happened to them?  Are there relatives of these palms still around someplace?  What happened back then?

https://www.sabinocanyon.com/palm-trees-in-alaska-a-reminder-of-the-earths-changing-climate/

https://www.gi.alaska.edu/alaska-science-forum/tropical-fossils-alaska

 

 

There are still new species being discovered and there are always relatives that are still alive. A lot of the species retreated further south and developped from there on again. This is so fascinating! 🤯 But if we could watch a couple of million years time lapse it would look proabably very natural and normal. I wonder what is still going to be found under the ice of Antarctica or Greenland!

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Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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Just now, Hortulanus said:

Well that's true. But for the better or the worse. Experiencing big changes in such a short period of time is what makes it exciting. 😊

Absolutely. Big and short are very subjective terms.  To you and me it may seem that way. That’s the problem with human history and a planet that is 4+ billion years old. The data points that we can utilize are … well inconsequential. 
 

cheers 🍻

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They (forecasters) warned us. 😬 13°F / -10.5°C at sunrise this morning. Not expected to get about freezing for 48 hrs and another deep freeze tonight.

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4 hours ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

They (forecasters) warned us. 😬 13°F / -10.5°C at sunrise this morning. Not expected to get about freezing for 48 hrs and another deep freeze tonight.

You think 48 hours below freezing is bad...here's mine

https://darksky.net/forecast/35.8451,-86.3928/us12/en

 

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YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@tntropics - 60+ In-ground 7A palms - (Sabal) minor(7 large + 27 seedling size, 3 dwarf),  brazoria(1) , birmingham(4), etonia (1) louisiana(5), palmetto (1), riverside (1),  (Trachycarpus) fortunei(7), wagnerianus(1),  Rhapidophyllum hystrix(7),  15' Mule-Butia x Syagrus(1),  Blue Butia capitata(1) +Tons of tropical plants.  Recent Yearly Lows -1F, 12F, 11F, 18F, 16F, 3F, 3F, 6F, 3F, 1F, 16F, 17F, 6F, 8F

 

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19 minutes ago, Allen said:

You think 48 hours below freezing is bad...here's mine

https://darksky.net/forecast/35.8451,-86.3928/us12/en

Holy....if that forecast is accurate, (and if I am reading it right) not only will you be experiencing bitter cold, but you will remain below freezing from overnight Thursday until sometime in the afternoon next Tuesday!  That should be a good Sabal spp. stress test.

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Unified Theory of Palm Seed Germination

image.png.2a6e16e02a0a8bfb8a478ab737de4bb1.png

(Where: bh = bottom heat, fs = fresh seed, L = love, m = magic, p = patience, and t = time)

DISCLAIMER: Working theory; not yet peer reviewed.

"Fronds come and go; the spear is life!" - Anonymous Palmtalker

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8 minutes ago, Allen said:

You think 48 hours below freezing is bad...here's mine

https://darksky.net/forecast/35.8451,-86.3928/us12/en

 

Your daytime max on Friday (17F) will be the same as my lowest nighttime temperature during our recent big freeze, which was also my lowest December temperature since 2010.

I hope you will be able to protect everything adequately. A low of 0F is just brutal as well. You'll have to wrap Trachycarpus Fortunei even.

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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1 minute ago, UK_Palms said:

Your daytime max on Friday (17F) will be the same as my lowest nighttime temperature during our recent big freeze, which was also my lowest December temperature since 2010.

I hope you will be able to protect everything adequately. A low of 0F is just brutal as well. You'll have to wrap Trachycarpus Fortunei even.

Already done you can see on my Youtube.  Stuff still probably damaged.

YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@tntropics - 60+ In-ground 7A palms - (Sabal) minor(7 large + 27 seedling size, 3 dwarf),  brazoria(1) , birmingham(4), etonia (1) louisiana(5), palmetto (1), riverside (1),  (Trachycarpus) fortunei(7), wagnerianus(1),  Rhapidophyllum hystrix(7),  15' Mule-Butia x Syagrus(1),  Blue Butia capitata(1) +Tons of tropical plants.  Recent Yearly Lows -1F, 12F, 11F, 18F, 16F, 3F, 3F, 6F, 3F, 1F, 16F, 17F, 6F, 8F

 

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7 minutes ago, Allen said:

Already done you can see on my Youtube.  Stuff still probably damaged.

Just watched the video. Your protection looks pretty good. A hell of a lot better than mine. I just wrapped a thin 2mm bit of frost cloth twice around the less hardy stuff like the queens. Stuff like Washingtonia just had a bit of tarpaulin draped over the crown. Then again I didn't have it anywhere near as bad as you have forecast. Good luck.  Hopefully the temps trend a bit higher over the next 24 hours.

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Local meteorologists are starting to back off the hype train here, their forecasts have been so much colder and a long duration freeze of 3 days whereas every other source is saying only 1.5 days below freezing.  I spent the day wrapping or covering more tender things up as they keep calling for an ice storm overnight Thursday.  The few times I've been scared into protecting it ends up being a nothing burger.  Tonight will be our coldest night somewhere in the low 20's tomorrows high will be our coldest in 6 years as we may not reach 30F.  We'll be back into the 50's by Saturday and today was surprisingly warm and sunny too.

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20°F this morning and the transition to milder temps should be interesting. Rain could easily cause problems in flood prone areas.

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4 minutes ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

20°F this morning and the transition to milder temps should be interesting. Rain could easily cause problems in flood prone areas.

I'm at 19F with very high winds.  The temp has been holding at this level for about 3 hours, not warming up yet.  Freezing rain tonight.  Coldest temps I've ever had since living here.

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Currently 15 F at my place . Winter storm warnings in effect for our area now. I’m sure Las Palmas Norte and Shady Dan are under this warning also.

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Coldest night I’ve had in Nanoose since living there was last night. Ultimately the low dropped to -9.4C. The great warm up starts tomorrow with lots of rain incoming. None of my palms were protected as I’m away for the holidays (currently -23C in the Okanagan where I am, I guess I shouldn’t complain!). I’ll be interested to see how my Butia looks when I get home… I’m banking on all my other palms getting through unscathed. I really hope the Butia makes it as it has just started to put on some good size. 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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Broke the freeze point this morning and light drizzle has started to fall. Gonna be messy with the milder temps and the expected rain.

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Slowly been climbing in temps today but seem to have stalled out at around 27.  Freezing drizzle/freezing fog all day.  It actually looks like it does when it warms up, but it's still cold.  Air is stagnant, we're waiting on the south winds to blow in, anytime.

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2 hours ago, Chester B said:

Slowly been climbing in temps today but seem to have stalled out at around 27.  Freezing drizzle/freezing fog all day.  It actually looks like it does when it warms up, but it's still cold.  Air is stagnant, we're waiting on the south winds to blow in, anytime.

Warm South wind is coming.  Yesterday here in Brookings the air warmed up 10 degrees all day..  It was 52 F this morning and drizzled all day.  In a day or so we are supposed to get the Pineapple Express out of the southwest with buckets of rain.  Weather reporters call it an "Atmospheric River".  It should make it all the way to Portland in day so with diminished rain after dumping most of it down here.

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15 hours ago, Banana Belt said:

Warm South wind is coming.  Yesterday here in Brookings the air warmed up 10 degrees all day..  It was 52 F this morning and drizzled all day.  In a day or so we are supposed to get the Pineapple Express out of the southwest with buckets of rain.  Weather reporters call it an "Atmospheric River".  It should make it all the way to Portland in day so with diminished rain after dumping most of it down here.

I’m finally above freezing with some light rain. The layer of ice on the plants is starting to drop off. Nothing but rain everyday in the forecast now. 
 

East Portland is still below freezing so it may take until tonight for them to thaw. 

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My protection seems to have worked. It may have been excessive but I wasn't sure how cold and for how long this event would last.

 

20221224_111128.thumb.jpg.b9f014a1d8ba1d4baee5c9fdcfef9a26.jpg

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