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Spring weather PNW


Chester B

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1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Would read through this week's blog update, esp. the fine print..  https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

So that blog was released on Monday 2nd May, back when the GFS was suggesting exceptional warmth for the PNW 10-14 days out, so Judah is reaffirming that. However the models have since shifted back in line again with the NOAA predictions of below average temperatures at least up until about the 20th May. I'm pretty sure if that blog was released today it would be somewhat different for that reason. I suspect he drafted it up on the 1st and it was released on the 2nd, however there has since been quite a few model changes, globally, over the past 48-72 hours, which the blog doesn't reflect. As I type this I can see model signals further strengthening for a below average period in the PNW through to June. Judah's post suggests it is going to warm up though, which now contradicts the current forecast models.

I have been keeping close tabs on the PNW weather for a number of months now, since it is probably the closest North American climate to my own. They really need northwestern Europe to be running below average here, in order for the PNW to be running above average, and visa versa. It may seem like that should not even be a thing, but it seems to be the case about 90% of the time. I think it is due to jet stream kinks and positioning (higher/lower), although a lot of their cold in recent months is due to a relatively strong La Nina and below average SST. If London is nudging 90F late next week, as the models are starting to suggest, I simply cannot see it being even average, let alone above average, in the PNW. Hence why I said the other day that one of those two forecasts models (PNW & W Europe) would be wrong. Any prolonged warm/dry period in northwest Europe probably doesn't bode well for the PNW.

Here is the furthest model run out to the 20th. Things could change between now and then, and I suspect a day or two will be running above average between then and now, but I think the continuing below average theme due to La Nina is pretty evident. I suspect the PNW will recover eventually and have a back loaded summer with a hot August/September this year. It seems 2010 and 2011 had pretty hot ends to summer and warm falls, akin to a moderate-strong La Nina during summer. You just need those SST's to recover, which they will do eventually. Off the back of a below average winter and one of the coldest springs on record (due to La Nina), those SST's are currently running quite a bit below average and will be for quite a while yet.

gfs_T2ma_nwus_64.jpg.726a00e021910d74d173d0f1fada5779.jpg

Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Every La Nina I've been through have all been different and very hard to predict what will happen...cold then hot...cold cold cold...hot hot who the heck knows....the West needs the rain bad soo I'm not complaining yet....looks like it might try and warm up here in a week or so fingers crossed...anyways..already have 1.5 in the rain gauge for May...jeeeeez!

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15 hours ago, Hutch said:

Every La Nina I've been through have all been different and very hard to predict what will happen...cold then hot...cold cold cold...hot hot who the heck knows....the West needs the rain bad soo I'm not complaining yet....looks like it might try and warm up here in a week or so fingers crossed...anyways..already have 1.5 in the rain gauge for May...jeeeeez!

I'm complaining - enough is enough.  Our average rainfall for May is 2.51", we might break that this weekend.  Right now second half of May it looks like we'll be drying out and approaching near normal temps.

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I just had a meeting with the BC Coastal Fire Center and they released their updated summer forecast today. They were originally calling for a warm-up and drying mid-May / early June but their updated forecast is calling for colder / wetter conditions all summer. No forest fires at least, but looks like its going to suck for camping and growing stuff.

I'm also sick of this. I'm tired of looking at my weather app and seeing rain icons and 0 days above 15C. Our forecasted daytime highs are closer to our average lows than our average highs right now. Every time they do predict warm and sunny weather it flips back to cold and wet a few days before. My figs and persimmons are barely leafing out and I've really seen no appreciable growth on any of my palms (except Trachys). 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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6 hours ago, ShadyDan said:

I just had a meeting with the BC Coastal Fire Center and they released their updated summer forecast today. They were originally calling for a warm-up and drying mid-May / early June but their updated forecast is calling for colder / wetter conditions all summer. No forest fires at least, but looks like its going to suck for camping and growing stuff.

I'm also sick of this. I'm tired of looking at my weather app and seeing rain icons and 0 days above 15C. Our forecasted daytime highs are closer to our average lows than our average highs right now. Every time they do predict warm and sunny weather it flips back to cold and wet a few days before. My figs and persimmons are barely leafing out and I've really seen no appreciable growth on any of my palms (except Trachys). 

I see the same thing, good weather in the forecast and a couple days before it hits they scrap it completely and back to February weather.  I usually have all my annuals in the ground early April.  I'm just now starting to think that I need to go and buy them.

Non native maples here still don't have their full set of leaves and neither do the oaks .  Paw paws buds have finally opened but a long way from full sized leaves, and flowers have not opened yet.  My mimosa and chitalpa trees have no signs of life yet, they are usually late compared to other trees though.

Itching to get outside and do stuff, but its hard with the buckets of rain we've been having this year.  I wonder if we'll break the all time rainfall record for May as well as April.

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All I know is, World Naked Gardening Day was a bit chilly today.  

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6 hours ago, Jesse PNW said:

All I know is, World Naked Gardening Day was a bit chilly today.  

And I thought I was the only one, agreed mate, a bit cool. :D

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It's supposed to get down to 39 here tonight.  

I'm done growing exotics, it's boxwood and Sitka spruce from here on out. 

Seriously though.  The agony for me is waiting to see if my colocasias and cannas made it through our rough winter.  Trachycarpus are moving albeit slowly.  Pretty amazing to see them pushing new growth although it's jacket weather. 

At least the yard should stay green a little longer this summer, and the fruit trees won't need as much water. 

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No reason the cannas shouldn’t make it, they’re pretty tough. No sign of mine yet but it’s been too cold. 
 

I’ve had colocasias come back for me, but they usually slowly die over a couple years. I haven’t been giving them the soil and attention they need. 
 

Of the deciduous “tropical” Plants that I have only the basjoo are growing but they are so far behind this year. 
 

I'm showing a low of 40 tonight. Cold day today too with frequent showers. 

Edited by Chester B
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When I Move to the PNW,  Ill be sure to have a heated greenhouse. That way as soon as the weather breaks, I can have all the seasonal topicals fully leafed out ready to go out. It is sorta the same thing for Texas in spring if you want annuals.  The springs can be very short. The time from last frost to heat wave can be only a few weeks. So spring and early summer annuals need to be ready to go as soon as possible. Shrubs and trees have a hard time getting established as well because people wait till spring to plant, but then the plants have no chance for a Texas summer. We already had our first heat advisory and heat indexes above 105+ this weekend.  Even plants like Colocasias and Caladiums are ready to go, but if you didn't have a greenhouse even in zone 8b TX, they would be way behind what the nurseries bring in.

Edited by Collectorpalms

Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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19 hours ago, Chester B said:

No reason the cannas shouldn’t make it, they’re pretty tough. No sign of mine yet but it’s been too cold. 
 

I’ve had colocasias come back for me, but they usually slowly die over a couple years. I haven’t been giving them the soil and attention they need. 
 

Of the deciduous “tropical” Plants that I have only the basjoo are growing but they are so far behind this year. 
 

I'm showing a low of 40 tonight. Cold day today too with frequent showers. 

My Cannas have been coming up in recent weeks, although I am having to water the absolute living hell out of them to get them moving though. Last year they were delayed by a number of weeks during our record cold spring, similar to what you are experiencing this year...

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The Cannas are doing better than the tomatoes though, which are really struggling in the dustbowl, despite generous irrigation. 

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Are you growing tomatoes this year and when do you think you would be able to plant them out there in Portland this spring? What is your current rainfall total for May so far as well?

Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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I'm not sure when the latest frost has occurred here.  But this is just pretty dang late. Picture from today.  Neighbors roof.

20220510_061219.jpg

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On 5/8/2022 at 10:09 PM, Collectorpalms said:

When I Move to the PNW,  Ill be sure to have a heated greenhouse. That way as soon as the weather breaks, I can have all the seasonal topicals fully leafed out ready to go out. It is sorta the same thing for Texas in spring if you want annuals.  The springs can be very short. The time from last frost to heat wave can be only a few weeks. So spring and early summer annuals need to be ready to go as soon as possible. Shrubs and trees have a hard time getting established as well because people wait till spring to plant, but then the plants have no chance for a Texas summer. We already had our first heat advisory and heat indexes above 105+ this weekend.  Even plants like Colocasias and Caladiums are ready to go, but if you didn't have a greenhouse even in zone 8b TX, they would be way behind what the nurseries bring in.

Greenhouses are great here, but unless you want to grow tender tropicals all year round (including in the dead of winter) I think the heating part is unnecessary and expensive. I have a few strings of C9 x-mas lights on a thermostat to keep my greenhouse above 0 during cold winter nights, but otherwise its not heated. By the time late February / early March rolls around, the days are longer and the sun is getting strong enough to keep the daytime temps close to 30C when sunny, and between 15-20C when overcast. My citrus are in full bloom right now, greenhouse broccoli almost all harvested, canna lilies in 512A plug sizes overdue for getting in the ground, and I have sold about 25 1-gallon sized Eucalyptus trees (seed sown in greenhouse in January). Despite, of course, this year being much cooler, cloudier, and rainier than usual.

 @Chester B I only have 1/10 cannas popping up outside so far, definitely behind schedule. Basjoos look pathetic and wimpy currently too. I am pleasantly surprised to see that all my dahlias made it through the winter and are actually putting on some decent growth. The past few days the weather man has been calling for overcast/rain with highs of 11-12C, however its been mostly sunny with highs reaching 15-16C, with all the rain and clouds sticking to the interior of the Island. I'll be more than happy if he keeps messing the crappy forecast up going forward! Looks like tomorrow / Thursday are going to be total washouts with cool, potentially record breaking, low daytime highs. I have about 2,000 trees to plant out in the woods for work those days, not looking forward to it. Half expecting to get snowed on while I'm out there...
 

 @UK_Palms up here on Vancouver Island, I've historically always put my tomatoes in the ground in mid-May once the nighttime lows are consistently over 7C and always have great crops. Not a chance this year if the extended forecast holds true. Luckily, I have a greenhouse to keep them warm until the weather starts to cooperate. So far, we have "only" had 13.2mm of rain here in May, but Nanaimo totaled it wettest April in the 130 years of record keeping with 164.8mm of rain... gross!

Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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Are you kidding me......gosh dang Jessie ..thats terrible...we were supposed to get frost last night but clouds prevailed low of 40.....i can't believe this crap.....but we did get up to 67 today....

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Dang Bryan I thought you'd always be a good 6 or 8 degrees warmer than me, never thought they'd call for frost this late for you.  

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We all have our challenges. Cannas are blooming, thanks to 3 inches rainfalls about spaces 3 weeks apart. 3 time times in a row. Not always this fortunate. Most of Texas/Southwest in in extreme drought I am the lucky lone area that received rain so far.... cannot last. Going into June, its dependent on tropical systems which can be zilch.

Edited by Collectorpalms

Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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It's Friday the 13th...and the insanity contuines...4 inches in rain gauge, and it's raining again pretty hard.  Atleast it's a decently warm rain this time around 59 here now ..ya Jessie just insane man...i couldn't believe the advisory..but it didn't pan out soo that's good!

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No danger of frost up this way but even yesterday my backyard was pretty much a thin layer of standing water.  You can actually hear the water trickling down the slope of my yard.  Last night was a warm one for a change, I woke up to 60F.  The forecast going forward is still about 10F below normal.  No real hot days either in the forecast.  I'm finding everything is pretty late to get going this year.  Even the Trachys are hardly moving, whereas this is the time that they usually show the fastest growth of the year.  At least its cool for working in the garden.  I hope to be done all my changes in the next couple weeks so I can sit back and enjoy for the summer.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well at least we've been getting mid 70s and sunshine now, as long as its not the weekend.:rant:

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I Agree Chester...down here we have ..just had a  strange weather week. One crazy T storm....rain fall around here is  6.2 inches on my property for  May...pretty insane warming up next week then another storm !!# 

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At this point i'm willing to bet Seatac won't hit 80 until after 4th of July. Truly a terrible year so far.

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2 hours ago, nick206 said:

At this point i'm willing to bet Seatac won't hit 80 until after 4th of July. Truly a terrible year so far.

We did in Portland yesterday and may today.  After the cool down/rain this weekend things are looking up with near normal temps and no rain, so maybe its on its way up there.

Things are so behind here this year its kind of shocking when I look back at last year.  Even my gas bill was 4x what it was last spring.

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Guess I spoke too soon.  Looks like a few days near normal temps and then back to 10F below normal.  The plants are hardly even growing this year, and I keep finding more damage showing up as we get later into the season.  Last year's spring and summer was fantastic even with that heat dome, and I really appreciated every minute of it.  

image.png.6fface8018924f6b513bcf2cbb0ba9c4.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

@UK_Palms you asked for me to give a rating for this year so far - 2/10 and I think that's being generous.

I still have trees that haven't fully leafed out and we're two weeks from July.  Fungus problems on many plants, the slugs are very bad this year and the rabbits are destroying my plants like I've never seen before.  I have a trap out and been using this spray that seems to be deterring them, but it keeps washing off with all the rain.  So they move in when its rainy eat everything and then they're gone - lost 6 plants in one night.  At least I now know what not to plant.

Did I mention record rainfall and temps 10-20F below normal.  And it rains every weekend, so outdoor activities are off the list - its been downright boring.  July and August will be decent but beyond that is concerning if the rains come back early this year.

I planted out my tomatoes last week, but usually they go in the ground early April.  Not expecting a good crop this year.

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Well I just saw today that we broke the all time record for spring precipitation this year by almost half an inch.  Still one week to go but its looking dry going forward. 12.23" and counting.  Lots of flooding and warnings around my area with the addition of the snow melt.

Even Mt Hood was expected to get up to 7" of snow the other day!  

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On 6/13/2022 at 6:05 PM, Chester B said:

@UK_Palms you asked for me to give a rating for this year so far - 2/10 and I think that's being generous.

I still have trees that haven't fully leafed out and we're two weeks from July.  Fungus problems on many plants, the slugs are very bad this year and the rabbits are destroying my plants like I've never seen before.  I have a trap out and been using this spray that seems to be deterring them, but it keeps washing off with all the rain.  So they move in when its rainy eat everything and then they're gone - lost 6 plants in one night.  At least I now know what not to plant.

Did I mention record rainfall and temps 10-20F below normal.  And it rains every weekend, so outdoor activities are off the list - its been downright boring.  July and August will be decent but beyond that is concerning if the rains come back early this year.

I planted out my tomatoes last week, but usually they go in the ground early April.  Not expecting a good crop this year.

Sorry it's been a bad year for you guys in the PNW this year. It sounds precisely like what I experienced here last year in 2021. Like just a freakishly bad anomaly year that was breaking all the wrong records. I was below average from about January - September last year. Both January and February 2021 were crap for me. Same as you. April 2021 was at the very least the joint coldest April on record here, possibly the coldest. May was also cold and very wet. That spring overall was nowhere near as wet as you, but probably colder.

Also summer 2021 was the worst in 8 years here since 2013. I feel that a run of below average temperatures in winter and spring, led to an entrenched colder than average period over summer. That could be a concern for you guys too in the coming months. That's not to say it will happen though. Of course we are running above average still, while you guys are running below, just like how I was cold last year and you were hot. As we have previously noted, whenever one of us runs above average, the other seems to run below and vice versa.

Hopefully your tomatoes pick up in the coming weeks.

 

5 hours ago, Chester B said:

Well I just saw today that we broke the all time record for spring precipitation this year by almost half an inch.  Still one week to go but its looking dry going forward. 12.23" and counting.  Lots of flooding and warnings around my area with the addition of the snow melt.

Even Mt Hood was expected to get up to 7" of snow the other day!  

12.2 inches of rainfall is crazy for spring. I only had 0.8 inches here in total across the 3 spring months. Springs are generally exceptionally dry nowadays though. One thing I haven't had to worry about this year is slugs and snails. It's so dry that I just haven't seen them anywhere really, not even at night. Anyway, how much rainfall have you guys had this year so far in total?

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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9 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

12.2 inches of rainfall is crazy for spring. I only had 0.8 inches here in total across the 3 spring months. Springs are generally exceptionally dry nowadays though. One thing I haven't had to worry about this year is slugs and snails. It's so dry that I just haven't seen them anywhere really, not even at night. Anyway, how much rainfall have you guys had this year so far in total?

So we've already exceeded our average annual rainfall recording 47.27" so far.  I have seen data saying our average precip is 38"/year

Previous years total precipitation for comparison:

2018: 36.27"

2019: 35.45"
2020: 31.89"
2021: 36.70"

Generally the precip for June-Sept is pretty minimal, with the rains coming in October.  Nov and Dec are generally pretty wet, so who knows maybe we'll even double the average rainfall for the year.  Only time will tell.

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Woke up this morning to this... Caught me off guard but its bout damn time, I hope this pans out.

Screen Shot 2022-06-19 at 10.32.29 AM.png

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You and me both. Hopefully summer has finally decided to show up. I even see a temp starting with a 9??  With all the water in the ground I expect the plants to explode  

 

712C6AD1-BDB7-48D9-9330-017D7CBB61F1.png

Edited by Chester B
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The closer we get to the weekend the predictions keep showing hotter and hotter.  Maybe I can finally take my sweater off!

image.png.52b3863b52a0194ba893dbcefe0aa43d.png

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Spring weather PNW

Thankfully spring is over. Bring on the summer! 

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Haven't said much lately as the relentless rains....and my Parents don't want to move and  ...stress...but overall we will stay and so ...were happy...love our property, and I hope to share my experiences with u all...92 here as we speak...i can hear water trickling under ground ..!

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About the same here @Hutch but very high winds. Tomorrow looks like a nice breeze and 100F. Winds dying down as we speak. Glad you don’t have to leave your “babies”. 

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16 hours ago, Chester B said:

About the same here @Hutch but very high winds. Tomorrow looks like a nice breeze and 100F. Winds dying down as we speak. Glad you don’t have to leave your “babies”. 

No winds up here around my place on Vancouver Island. Cooler around 80F on the north side, and low 90's in the shady SW side. We are just a couple of blocks from the Strait of Georgia.

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It got up to 65 today... this is when we had the heat dome last year, we were already in a drought, and it was 106f at my place, and we had a burn ban, and fireworks were outlawed.  But this year there's a chance of rain this weekend.... 

at least it looks like the cold weather may, maybe, perhaps, be done after this weekend.  Good grief.  

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It’s still below normal for sure although last week was probably near normal with that mini heatwave. This upcoming week is still cool. High 70s and low 80s. Coldest day will be today at around 72. I’m going to take advantage of it and pull 5 large Cistus out and replace with a Pineapple broom. 
 

i think this is going to be how summer turns out. Very comfortable with the odd hot day but well below average. 
 

The grass around here has started to brown for summer, it doesn’t take long. Eventually I’ll have none. Such a waste of time and resources. 

Edited by Chester B
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On 7/3/2022 at 7:55 AM, Chester B said:

 I’m going to take advantage of it and pull 5 large Cistus out and replace with a Pineapple broom. 

Yeah I agree, lawns are a waste of time and watering in city lots. 

Good choice with the pineapple boom, Here's what mine has done in the last 15 years.  It is now 12' tall and 12' wide. Only gets natural rain water and none in summer. Mine is all most all done blooming and Yes they smell amazing, but only last one day in a vase.  Suckers like crazy too, but easy to cut off.  New leaf growth is very soft and fuzzy. LOL!

Good luck with yours Chester, you'll love it. 

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