What’s Going On in This Graph? Future Hardiness zone map

[MonkeDonkezz]

I have know about this NY Times article for a while. It shows a graph estimating future cold hardiness zones.  I think it is overestimating a bit, but it would be cool to see palms all the way up the east coast to the nyc metro.

Article Url: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-growing-zones.html

[Xerarch]

I think there is another thread already discussing the NYT article and new projected zones.  There are already a number of people on this forum arguing that their area already matches the projected zones, especially if looking at big cities with significant urban heat islands, so maybe new map is not far off?  At least until the next major cold system slaps you in the face with a reality check.

[GoatLockerGuns]

14 minutes ago, Xerarch said:

At least until the next major cold system slaps you in the face with a reality check.

Indubitably!

[Silas_Sancona]

1 minute ago, Xerarch said:

I think there is another thread already discussing the NYT article and new projected zones.  There are already a number of people on this forum arguing that their area already matches the projected zones, especially if looking at big cities with significant urban heat islands, so maybe new map is not far off?  At least until the next major cold system slaps you in the face with a reality check.

That may be a factor back east, but not much of a significant threat here. ( Not one to dwell on either )  More likely is we're well on the way to Zone 11.. Currently at Puerto Penesco in 2012's map..  Give it a 60% chance Yuma, and greater Phoenix will be on the 11A line in the near-er future.. Esp. w/ continued development around here.   12 ( Light and dark Purple ) isn't all that far away either.  Bet Guaymas / San Carlos is already 12.. or darn close. 

Say goodbye to most Yellow / Orange Zone 8 areas here ..and just south of Nogales / S.E. AZ and most of Northern Baja / nearby S. Cal. as well sometime in the next 50 - 70 years.

East will warm regardless, just maybe not quite as quickly as it could w/ out those occasional, crazy swings..



Mexico 2012 Map:  Very curious how things might look when a new one is published in the next couple years - hopefully -...

[MonkeDonkezz]

I do not remember seeing another post about this article, sorry 

[Xerarch]

21 minutes ago, MonkeDonkezz said:

I do not remember seeing another post about this article, sorry 

Not a problem even if there is another thread, sometimes threads with similar topics take a direction all their own anyway. 

[Allen]

I don't think anyone can predict the future exactly.  The problem with zones is it doesn't matter what zone you are in if your absolute low one year kills your palms.  Palms are sensitive to many things and this 30 year average is a little deceptive.  

Something I posted before.

"The plantzones are based on a 30 year average of the absolute low each year but lets look at how that can be deceptive......

We'll use 4 made up years to keep it a simple example.  This is a extreme example to illustrate a point.  I understand temps generally don't vary this much

Yearly lows / Average temp / zone

-10F, 0F, 20F, 30F  / Avg 10F / zone 8a   ( But the -10F temp will kill all your palms and you thought you could plant 8a palms)

I feel to grow palms (especially if you don't want to protect) you should do your own analysis of your yearly lows for as many years as you feel comfortable (10, 30, 50?) and plant based on the absolute low you are comfortable with.  Forget about zone and plant based on observed lows.  I think this is what @Dartolution was saying

Of course a record low can still happen and we know how that goes.  It's always a gamble"

[Xerarch]

25 minutes ago, Allen said:

Forget about zone and plant based on observed lows. 

I think a lot of us here espouse the idea you should plant 50% or more of your garden with things that are invincible even on the worst years,  another 30% that are fine on all but the worse years.  Then last 20% is fun to play with for things that last as long as they last or you are willing to protect.  Play with the percentages however you like, but you get the idea.  I lot of tender tropicals do well in my area for quite a few years on end, but anyone that had their whole yard full of them last year might as well have set a flamethrower to it all.  I have to be able to sleep well during cold events, even so, I do lean a little more toward the zone pushing end than my stated percentages above.  But for sure I do limit the real tender stuff.

[Allen]

5 minutes ago, Xerarch said:

I think a lot of us here espouse the idea you should plant 50% or more of your garden with things that are invincible even on the worst years,  another 30% that are fine on all but the worse years.  Then last 20% is fun to play with for things that last as long as they last or you are willing to protect.  Play with the percentages however you like, but you get the idea.  I lot of tender tropicals do well in my area for quite a few years on end, but anyone that had their whole yard full of them last year might as well have set a flamethrower to it all.  I have to be able to sleep well during cold events, even so, I do lean a little more toward the zone pushing end than my stated percentages above.  But for sure I do limit the real tender stuff.

Yea I go along with that philosophy.  Just in my zone 7a there probably isn't any palm invincible but maybe minors and needles are close! See that's the thing I guess for the last 30 or so years Sabal minor would have been good here but in 1985 we had -17F, 1989 was -10F.  Zone 7a is real stable for Sabal minor but if those past temps happen again they are toast.  So like you said just play the odds.  

[GoatLockerGuns]

12 hours ago, Xerarch said:

I think a lot of us here espouse the idea you should plant 50% or more of your garden with things that are invincible even on the worst years,  another 30% that are fine on all but the worse years.  Then last 20% is fun to play with for things that last as long as they last or you are willing to protect. 

Concur. I recommend to anyone wanting to plant palms around here (zone 8b and 9a) to do a risk/benefit reward before spending good money.  If you are going to pay top dollar for a yard "show piece" (like a nice, and costly, already trunking palm specimen) it should be a bullet proof palm at least one zone below your rated one.  For cheap small potted palms, or palms you have grown from seed yourself (very cheap), then yeah why not.  Throw one out there and see what happens; no harm no foul (well, maybe to your ego, but not your wallet).  Also micro climate protection/planning should always be a factor in your risk/benefit decision as to where you place your high dollar palm(s) on your property (i.e., exposure to elements, radiant heat protection from stone/walls, elevation, etc.).

[knikfar]

I don't put a lot of faith in the zone maps. I'm in Raleigh NC, zone 7b on the old map but 8a on the new one in the NY times article. Our low temp for the last three years has been 17f, and that was only one of the last three years. The other two winters didn't fall below 20f. But, prior to the last few years, we had a low of 4f in 2018 and a low of 9f, I think in 2019. So yeah, I can plant zone 8 plants but I still need to be prepared to protect them from time to time. 

[Allen]

It appears the safest strategy is to plant one zone below your rated zone as stated above if you don't want to protect ever.  So you'd plant Sabal Palmetto and varieties, Butia and Trachycarpus in zone 9a and in 8a you're stuck with the tougher Sabal varieties and needle palm.   But what fun is that?  And you could STILL have a record cold and kill stuff but you'd be really safe.

[Ben G.]

This certainly isn't happening in Oklahoma yet. I live in a 7a area that is projected to become zone 8 according to this map. In the 5 years in my current location we have had lows of -2F, -2F, 8F, -15F, and 9F. It's also a little ironic that their map starts in 2011, when there was another major cold event in this part of the country that saw some areas of NE OK hit -30F. Seems like they need to re-evaluate their models.

[Allen]

27 minutes ago, Ben OK said:

This certainly isn't happening in Oklahoma yet. I live in a 7a area that is projected to become zone 8 according to this map. In the 5 years in my current location we have had lows of -2F, -2F, 8F, -15F, and 9F. It's also a little ironic that their map starts in 2011, when there was another major cold event in this part of the country that saw some areas of NE OK hit -30F. Seems like they need to re-evaluate their models.

A real world example of why zone ratings are deceptive. 

[WSimpson]

I have averaged  12F+ over the last 30 years but in 2014 I went down to 5F ,  4F in 2015 , 7F in 2017 , and 8F in 2018 . So I will be having some zone 7 winters in the future for sure . 

Will

[DAVEinMB]

The longer you track climate data the more likely you are to determine whether outliers (such as uncommon lows) are an issue or not. Data collection will always tell a story

[WSimpson]

Central NH has busted that new zone map this winter with a low of -22F . Live picture below at 1:45PM today  .

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Will Simpson

[Funkthulhu]

I realize I'm an outlier since I'm dead in the center of the lower 48, but I can't trust this map.

My experience is that the zone is "average'd" out but doesn't take into serious account the now yearly or multiple per winter Polar Vortex influx.  It doesn't matter a lick if my new Zone is 6, if I get negative teens for a week once or twice a year.  In fact, because of that I am starting to pick my perennials from Zone 4, even though I'm supposed to be 5b (old map).  

Obviously I'm not even leaving a Musa bajoo out in the ground, all my palms are indoors for 6 months of the year.  So, this map is just novel information without much practical use for me, but for some of you a day's drive south I suggest you don't give it a second look.

[Xerarch]

27 minutes ago, Funkthulhu said:

I realize I'm an outlier since I'm dead in the center of the lower 48, but I can't trust this map.

My experience is that the zone is "average'd" out but doesn't take into serious account the now yearly or multiple per winter Polar Vortex influx.  It doesn't matter a lick if my new Zone is 6, if I get negative teens for a week once or twice a year.  In fact, because of that I am starting to pick my perennials from Zone 4, even though I'm supposed to be 5b (old map).  

Obviously I'm not even leaving a Musa bajoo out in the ground, all my palms are indoors for 6 months of the year.  So, this map is just novel information without much practical use for me, but for some of you a day's drive south I suggest you don't give it a second look.

Looks like Funkthulu must descend to the deep, the depths to the south, where his palm trees might have a chance of survival outdoors.

[MonkeDonkezz]

The lowest temps for the last 11 years in nyc are:

 

14-2021

14-2020

2-2019

5-2018

9-2017

-1-2016

2-2015

4-2014

11-2013

13-2012

6-2011

13-2010

I did the math and the mean minimum for the last 11 years is about 9.54 degrees. 

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by MonkeDonkezz

[MonkeDonkezz]

That is close to zone 8a, but this year was very cold and I counted a temperature between 12 and 8.

[Allen]

48 minutes ago, MonkeDonkezz said:

That is close to zone 8a, but this year was very cold and I counted a temperature between 12 and 8.

But if you plant a tough trunking palm even a Trachycarpus fortunei at -1F it is probably dead.   Even the 2F, 5F, 2F, 4F and 6F would be a issue.  Only the Sabal minor and needle look to be survivors.

[maskedmole]

The United States in general, particularly in the east and south, just has an unpredictable winter climate and some species have adapted to that. The American south, for example, has a rather warm subtropical climate on average but dips down several degrees below average briefly every so many years. There is just nothing stopping the cold fronts coming from Canada some years. The sabal minor flourishes most years in it's native range and is able to handle the brief cold dip in certain years but it cannot handle that every year I'm assuming. This makes sabal minor and needle palms very fascinating as they have adapted perfectly to this subtropical cold snap climate. They are able to handle extreme cold for brief periods every now and then but need the heat in summer time to make up for it and the average mildness. So the sabal minor has adapted to flourish in the warm mild climate with brief, rare cold snaps. I think China, which also has an east coast and a large mass of land with not much in the way like mountain ranges and such to protect from cold snaps, has a similar climate. West coasts areas are warmer.

Most years we never drop below zero but out of many, many years, let's say every 30 years we may get an extreme cold snap like that in 2014 and dip down to -8 degrees! That is what, a 6a? Then other years, we may only drop to the teens so a zone 8a. I would consider my climate as barely within the subtropical cold snap climate, as in we are rather mild most years but after a few decades, give or take, we may get extremely cold briefly as in most places in the south. Our climate is similar to the native range of sabal minor a few hours south of here, just a bit colder so it's similar enough to make it rather easy to grow. I don't have to worry about rainfall, soil type, etc.

I think the zone maps needs to be taken with a little grain of salt and just plant what you are comfortable planting. I know a 6a or 5b plant is pretty invincible here but like what has been said before, what is the fun in that? I know that a sabal minor or needle palm here is nearly invincible but may need a blanket thrown over it once a decade or so and that is fine with me. I work much harder on keeping indoor plants alive than that. A windmill palm is even easy for me to grow here as the average winter temperature here is perfectly okay for it to grow, it just needs a little protecting mostly in the cold snaps of January and that is easy enough for me. I consider windmill palms growing outdoors here to be easier than growing many indoor plants as well.

Edited March 5, 2022 by maskedmole

[GRob]

That map is about right for much of New York City. For example, Central Park station is 7B, with the average extreme low each winter 9.8 degrees… almost borderline to 8A, and up a couple degrees from the last 30 year average release ten years ago.  But Central Park is in a colder location than most of the city. La Guardia Airport truly borders on 8A hardiness zone, with an average minimum low of about 11 or 12 degrees. In most of Manhattan, moderated by the concrete and the water, gardens there have a slightly higher minimum temp. St. Luke’s garden in the West Village has boasted for decades about their 8A micro-climate. This year is a good example of increasing minimum extreme lows: our January (2022) was a few degrees below average (following a much above average December where LaGuardia didn’t receive its first sub-freezing day of the season until way into the month) which had many nights with lows in the teens. Yet, Central Park’s minimum temp this season was 10 degrees, about average in a colder than average month. 

[teddytn]

Anyone have pics of palm trees from the north east they can share? 

[D Palm]

Numbers plugged into a computer model…not reality.

[tjwalters]

Real data from my officially 7a location, which has been a solid 7b (7.9°F) over the last 20 years.  The last 3 years have been especially surprising.

[Allen]

12 hours ago, tjwalters said:

Real data from my officially 7a location, which has been a solid 7b (7.9°F) over the last 20 years.  The last 3 years have been especially surprising.

You seem to have a lot of variability there for sure.  2 zone 6b temps and one zone 9a.   What palms do you have in ground?

[tjwalters]

8 hours ago, Allen said:

You seem to have a lot of variability there for sure.  2 zone 6b temps and one zone 9a.   What palms do you have in ground?

I have many mature, seeding Sabal minor and Rhapidophyllum hystrix palms.  The S. minor palms are naturalizing in my yard and some of the neighbors' yards. I have at least one R. hystrix coming up from seed near the oldest needle.  Both species are rock-solid here.  I also have 4 good-sized but still trunkless Trachycarpus fortunei palms of no particular lineage, grown from seeds from a Saratoga, CA palm.  These are the remaining survivors of a dozen or more that were originally planted as small seedlings years ago.  They have never been protected.  In addition, there is one T. fortunei 'Bulgarian' that was planted as a juvenile a couple years ago.  None of these are ever protected.  (I also have many tropical palms in pots,  Many of the Chamaedorea palms are mature and producing seed.)