Record Cold

[chris.oz]

Daryl,

I have just looked at the BOM observations.  The Brisbane area minimum overnight low for Thursday  are 2-3 C lower than Melbourne Bayside lowest for July so far.     In other words,  you are getting worse frosts than us.

This does not augur well for us over this winter.  I fear worst is to come for us this winter.

Keeping fingers crossed.

[Walter John]

Cold is over here after this morning, minimums are going up from tomorrow to double figures (centigrade).

[epicure3]

I am truly sorry for those of you on the east coast of Australia going through this extreme weather. We were there this past January here in San Diego. I bet that 30' carpie comes back.

Australia is not the only country dealing with this. The coast of the south island of New Zealand has had temps down to -15C this winter. I would imagine this would destroy the native rhopalostylis.

Argentina is having its worst winter in over 100 years. I'm not sure weather than infers temps or precipitation.

[Daryl]

Yeah, and South Africa has had some cold weather too. I often wonder if the world weather is linked in some way. I mean, there is a lot of distance between all of these areas..what is causing this cold weather in so many areas?

Much warmer this morning...currently 13C at 8:00am thankfully! More like normal conditions again.

Daryl

[Walt]

(Daryl @ Jul. 20 2007,09:58)

QUOTE

This is the worst cold I have seen here in 25 years. Driving around, there are totally brown Archontophoenix alexandrae, from head to toe black-brown. Not just palms, but many trees have cold damage. The damage is starting to really show in my garden now..anything not under canopy has been fried. My 30ft tall carpentarias have totally brown crowns.

I might try and take some photos over the weekend...something to remember and tell my grandkids how cold it once got...(positive thinking?)

Daryl

Daryl: What a bummer that cold is. You have my sympathy.

What surprises me is that you are having so much damage at only 2-3 degrees C (35.6F - 37.4F). I guess it must be the duration and the fact that leaf surfaces are much colder. I'm assuming your frost is from a radiational cooling event, which would then be understandable that the palm leaves would develop frost on them.

I haven't viewed your website in years, but I recall you had a triangle x teddy bear cross. I hope that palm fares okay as I really liked that one.

Back on January 5, 2001 (our winter in the northern hemisphere) I bottomed out at 22 degrees F (-5.5C) and I lost lots of palms and tropicals. It was a radiational cooling freeze (no wind and clear sky) and frost developed over everything.

Here's a coconut palm that got frost whacked that day, but this palm probably only saw around 28 degrees F (2.2C). It was definitely freeze dried:

http://home-and-garden.webshots.com/photo/...042496162PfHYuc

Here's the same palm 21 months later, fully recovered:

http://home-and-garden.webshots.com/photo/...042496162BWPkjR

Let us know how you made out once winter is over, and I hope for the best for your palms.

Walt

[Tyrone]

(Daryl @ Jul. 20 2007,09:58)

QUOTE

This is the worst cold I have seen here in 25 years. Driving around, there are totally brown Archontophoenix alexandrae, from head to toe black-brown. Not just palms, but many trees have cold damage. The damage is starting to really show in my garden now..anything not under canopy has been fried. My 30ft tall carpentarias have totally brown crowns.

I might try and take some photos over the weekend...something to remember and tell my grandkids how cold it once got...(positive thinking?)

Daryl

Daryl it sounds like you actually went well below zero. To totally blacken alexanders is scary stuff. Even the carpies sound like they've taken very low temps. I really hope it all comes back like Walts freeze dried coconut did. What a total bummer the weather has been.

Have you been in SE QLD 25 yrs? You may have experienced a 1 in 100 or 200 yr event. How are the Bangalows going up in the mountains behind you? They would have got even colder. And what about Urbenville where there is some discussion that the most cold hardiest bangalow comes from. It must have got to minus 10C up there. I think this is something to tell the grand kiddies about. It may never be seen again, hopefully.

regards

Tyrone

[Tyrone]

Daryl, Did all your Clinostigma receive damage? What C species are you growing?

regards

Tyrone

[tim_brissy_13]

Sorry to hear about the weather up in SE Queensland.  Melbourne CBD had it's coldest morning for three years this morning at 2C, but a thick covering of fog kept the temperature above 4C at my place.  As I type it is 7C at midday, but the fog is predicted to lift and we may warm up a bit in the afternoon.

The rest of the week is predicted to warm up, next week the forecast is mostly around 10-16C, rather than the 5-12C weather of the last week.  Still no frosts here but I'm sure the cold days will be taking its toll on palms like Guassia maya and some Dypsis species.

[happ]

(tim_brissy_13 @ Jul. 20 2007,22:15)

QUOTE

Sorry to hear about the weather up in SE Queensland.  Melbourne CBD had it's coldest morning for three years this morning at 2C, but a thick covering of fog kept the temperature above 4C at my place.  As I type it is 7C at midday, but the fog is predicted to lift and we may warm up a bit in the afternoon.

The rest of the week is predicted to warm up, next week the forecast is mostly around 10-16C, rather than the 5-12C weather of the last week.  Still no frosts here but I'm sure the cold days will be taking its toll on palms like Guassia maya and some Dypsis species.

Melbourne sounds like San Francisco: chilly days but rarely below freezing nights

[Daryl]

Tyrone, although I recorded 2C on my back patio, it would have been colder out in the more open areas of the garden. The amount of damage here would indicate that it certainly did 'freeze' even though there was no ground frost. I had ice on my car. It was a severe radiational freeze for sure. All of the palms with horizontal leaf surfaces are severely burned. Those with more vertical surfaces are OK. For example 3 of my Dypsis leptocheilos have some yellowing/spotting on their leaves but the D.lastelliana next to them is untouched...the leaflets are more vertical in their arrangement. One of my Chambeyronia hookeri has burnt a fair bit. This is a palm with 6 ft of trunk mind you. Next to it the Clinostigma 'harlandii' and Attalea butyracea, Archo maxima, Ptycho sp etc all have varying amounts of leaf burn, the Veitchia joannis was worst. Dypsis lanceolata has 50% burn, whilst Dypsis 215 does not have a spot on it..what a hardy palm!

Another good performer was Dypsis pembana which did not burn either, and on of them was totally out on its own.

Most of the palms growing under the canopy of other palms and tree were OK, with no visible damage so far. All of the same species mentioned above are also planted down next to my creek and have more eucalypt canopy. None of them have any damage, which is a good thing!

Walt, the Red Triangles seem to be just fine..no burn whatsoever!

The biggest difference with this cold attack was the duration of cold. The temperature dropped at sunset and under  my patio it was just 4C at midnight, so the exposed garden temp would have been just above freezing then. It didn't warm up above 10C until after 9:00am. That's just too long in the fridge for most tropical species. Even though the daytime temperature reached 20C, the same type of cold happened for two more nights.

Some parts of this region were much colder than my garden, and others were warmer. Obviously the high ground was warmer, whilst the flood plains and valley bottoms were colder. Some people recorded -3C within a couple of kilometres of my place. Gardens at the top of my street have no damage whatsoever.

Oh well, we just have to wait for warmer weather and hope we have a long hot wet summer!

Daryl.

[Daryl]

Here's a couple of photos showing some of the most obvious damage. Over the next couple of weeks it will get worse I'm sure.

[Tyrone]

Daryl, From the pictures I think they'll come back alright provided you have a wet humid summer, which I think you will. They'll just look a bit sad in the interim. If down the road got down to neg 3C, I think you weren't far off that yourself. One thing I'm totally surprised is that your A maxima burnt. I would have considered that much more cold hardy than pembana that didn't burn at all for you. As agonising as these events are, they do enable us to learn a lot about cold hardiness of certain species, and microclimates.

Looking at the BOM, you've got much better weather coming.

Best regards

Tyrone

[Daryl]

(Tyrone @ Jul. 21 2007,19:05)

QUOTE

If down the road got down to neg 3C, I think you weren't far off that yourself.

Yeah, I was probably 2 degrees off that temp. Believe me you should see the palms in those colder areas...totally fried!

Mike (Newcal) told me that at the bottom of his valley, the Golden canes were totally burnt, and almost black. Even Umbrella trees were totally black. That is severe cold in my book. At his place further up the hill he had no damage...high ground advantage.

The frustrating thing is that it has warmed up here again, and I keep think 'why didn't it do this 3 days ago?'

Daryl

[Walter John]

I'd like to say something here but I can't , I'm lost for words so I'll use someone else's. Firstly a 1960s song from the Byrds, words adapted from the bible, book of ecclesiastes, music by Pete Seeger.

Do everything

turn turn turn

There is a season

turn turn turn

And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to be born, a time to die

A time to plant, a time to reap

A time to kill, a time to heal

A time to laugh, a time to weep

Do everything

turn turn turn

There is a season

turn turn turn

And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to gain, a time to lose

A time to rend, a time to sew

A time to love, a time to hate

A time for peace, I swear its not too late

and here's another prayer I did not write in the key of 'A'.

Get your motor runnin'

Head out on the highway

Lookin' for adventure

In whatever comes our way

Yeah Darlin' gonna make it happen

Take the world in a love embrace

Fire all of your guns at once

And explode into space

Like a true nature's child

We were born, born to be wild

We can climb so high

I never wanna die

Born to be wild

Born to be wild

[Tyrone]

(Wal @ Jul. 21 2007,07:05)

QUOTE

I'd like to say something here but I can't , I'm lost for words so I'll use someone else's. Firstly a 1960s song from the Byrds, words adapted from the bible, book of ecclesiastes, music by Pete Seeger.

Do everything

turn turn turn

There is a season

turn turn turn

And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to be born, a time to die

A time to plant, a time to reap

A time to kill, a time to heal

A time to laugh, a time to weep

Do everything

turn turn turn

There is a season

turn turn turn

And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to gain, a time to lose

A time to rend, a time to sew

A time to love, a time to hate

A time for peace, I swear its not too late

and here's another prayer I did not write in the key of 'A'.

Get your motor runnin'

Head out on the highway

Lookin' for adventure

In whatever comes our way

Yeah Darlin' gonna make it happen

Take the world in a love embrace

Fire all of your guns at once

And explode into space

Like a true nature's child

We were born, born to be wild

We can climb so high

I never wanna die

Born to be wild

Born to be wild

Yeah.

What he said.

[BS Man about Palms]

Its very sad to be experiencing some major deja-vu upon seeing those pictures. It was something I could erase from my memory.

Daryl, Happy to hear my fav palm of yours (D. 215) is untouched at this point!

[aussiearoids]

Brass monkey weather for sure , BBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

[tim_brissy_13]

3C at midnight last night, minimum of 2C this morning.  I feared the worst, at midnight last night I could see clear sky above, and already at 3C I thought I might see the first sub-zero temperature since 2003 when I started recording the temperature.  Last night still managed to be the lowest in that period.  No obvious damaged yet, however Dypsis lutescens is doing its normal winter routine, slowly browning at the leaflet tips.

[Nigel]

The worlds weather seems to be going crazy.

Here in the UK there has been zero summer. Highest temp 24C in april on one day and just 6 days above 20C for me in south west england all year.

The 3 highest months rainfall ever recorded.

I wonder if this period of global warmth is finished ?

[chris.oz]

(happ @ Jul. 20 2007,23:45)

QUOTE

(tim_brissy_13 @ Jul. 20 2007,22:15)

QUOTE

Sorry to hear about the weather up in SE Queensland.  Melbourne CBD had it's coldest morning for three years this morning at 2C, but a thick covering of fog kept the temperature above 4C at my place.  As I type it is 7C at midday, but the fog is predicted to lift and we may warm up a bit in the afternoon.

The rest of the week is predicted to warm up, next week the forecast is mostly around 10-16C, rather than the 5-12C weather of the last week.  Still no frosts here but I'm sure the cold days will be taking its toll on palms like Guassia maya and some Dypsis species.

Melbourne sounds like San Francisco: chilly days but rarely below freezing nights

Both Tim and I live nearby the bay.  This is a larger body of relatively shallow water broader  than the SF bay which moderates our temperatures.  In the nearby hills it does drop below zero C every winter.  It snowed on the nearby hills on 24/12/2006,  but did not go below 5 C here by the bay

[chris.oz]

(Nigel @ Jul. 22 2007,03:08)

QUOTE

The worlds weather seems to be going crazy.

Here in the UK there has been zero summer. Highest temp 24C in april on one day and just 6 days above 20C for me in south west england all year.

The 3 highest months rainfall ever recorded.

I wonder if this period of global warmth is finished ?

IMO the explanation for the wild variation in weather in the context of the global warming hypothesis is that  the planets air circulation is trying to equalise temperature.  The increased heating is causing greater disturbances in the process of reaching the equilibrium.

If you want evidence of global warming ,  retreat of glaciers and ice shelf in the arctic and antarctic are the best indicators,  since they have built in averaging .

[chris.oz]

(tim_brissy_13 @ Jul. 21 2007,19:38)

QUOTE

3C at midnight last night, minimum of 2C this morning.  I feared the worst, at midnight last night I could see clear sky above, and already at 3C I thought I might see the first sub-zero temperature since 2003 when I started recording the temperature.  Last night still managed to be the lowest in that period.  No obvious damaged yet, however Dypsis lutescens is doing its normal winter routine, slowly browning at the leaflet tips.

Hi Tim,  very similar situation here.  

I really fear colder weather which has always occured in August during the clear nights,  after the lag of several months of cold weather.

Even last night I did not get below the 2C minimum I have recorded since 2003 when I started recording here.

Some spotting on the Pritchardias at my Braeside growing area.   It got down to 0C.

I have a slight spotting on some Chamaedorea here and I have lost several smaller palms already due to cold damp conditions.

[Nigel]

Chris, Half of europe is melting under extreme heat and the other half is having a miserable summer. Nature doesnt seem to be equalising the wetaher AT ALL here.

It all seems to come back to La Nina. But we have had La Nina before without this extreme weather around the globe.

Maybe La Nina + global warming = total nightmare weather.

[chris.oz]

(Nigel @ Jul. 22 2007,06:41)

QUOTE

Chris, Half of europe is melting under extreme heat and the other half is having a miserable summer. Nature doesnt seem to be equalising the wetaher AT ALL here.

It all seems to come back to La Nina. But we have had La Nina before without this extreme weather around the globe.

Maybe La Nina + global warming = total nightmare weather.

Nigel,

Cant agree more.   But it is entirely possible that next week the heat wave may come to Britain and the cold weather to greece.

Last year on 24th December it snowed on the hills in Melbourne.

[Nigel]

(chris.oz @ Jul. 22 2007,08:17)

QUOTE

(Nigel @ Jul. 22 2007,06:41)

QUOTE

Chris, Half of europe is melting under extreme heat and the other half is having a miserable summer. Nature doesnt seem to be equalising the wetaher AT ALL here.

It all seems to come back to La Nina. But we have had La Nina before without this extreme weather around the globe.

Maybe La Nina + global warming = total nightmare weather.

Nigel,

Cant agree more.   But it is entirely possible that next week the heat wave may come to Britain and the cold weather to greece.

Last year on 24th December it snowed on the hills in Melbourne.

Chris,it aint gonna happen.

The jet stream normally snakes and meanders around and in summer high pressure pushes it north.

This year it is so intense that nothing can shift it, the azores high cant make any headway into such an intense jet of cool moist air.

[Alberto]

Here in south Brazil we had a cold May( nomally warmer) and in June began a 40 days of drought that ended in mid July(very strange!). There was a warm air mass on south Brazil that didn´t let the cold fronts comming in,bringing rain and freezes.... We haven´t had temperatures below 0´C at my place this winter,but it only begin to warm up in mid August..... so we have to wait. I really hope our cold will not be the same as from Australia...

[Nigel]

(Alberto @ Jul. 22 2007,09:48)

QUOTE

Here in south Brazil we had a cold May( nomally warmer) and in June began a 40 days of drought that ended in mid July(very strange!). There was a warm air mass on south Brazil that didn´t let the cold fronts comming in,bringing rain and freezes.... We haven´t had temperatures below 0´C at my place this winter,but it only begin to warm up in mid August..... so we have to wait. I really hope our cold will not be the same as from Australia...

Its almost like the entire worlds weather has been frozen in time for 2 or 3 months now ,with pockets of warm or cold ,wet or dry ,and no variation.

[Tyrone]

(Nigel @ Jul. 22 2007,03:08)

QUOTE

The worlds weather seems to be going crazy.

Here in the UK there has been zero summer. Highest temp 24C in april on one day and just 6 days above 20C for me in south west england all year.

The 3 highest months rainfall ever recorded.

I wonder if this period of global warmth is finished ?

Nigel, That sounds like our winter here. We had 24C the other day. Sorry I couldn't resist saying that.

Tyrone

[elHoagie]

(chris.oz @ Jul. 22 2007,05:17)

QUOTE

Last year on 24th December it snowed on the hills in Melbourne.

Daryl, Wal, and other east coast Aussies - I hope your palms recover, those photos bring back memories of January...

Chris - It snowed in the middle of the summer??

[Alberto]

(Tyrone @ Jul. 20 2007,21:31)

QUOTE

Have you been in SE QLD 25 yrs? You may have experienced a 1 in 100 or 200 yr event. How are the Bangalows going up in the mountains behind you? They would have got even colder. And what about Urbenville where there is some discussion that the most cold hardiest bangalow comes from. It must have got to minus 10C up there. I think this is something to tell the grand kiddies about. It may never be seen again, hopefully.

regards

Tyrone

How cold was it in Urbenville?? Benn told me that in ´´Bangalow´´ the minimum temp. was -9`C !!!!

I have seedlings of bangalows from this Urbenville region,so I´m very curious about the weather in this town....

[amazondk]

(Tyrone @ Jul. 23 2007,05:12)

QUOTE

(Nigel @ Jul. 22 2007,03:08)

QUOTE

The worlds weather seems to be going crazy.

Here in the UK there has been zero summer. Highest temp 24C in april on one day and just 6 days above 20C for me in south west england all year.

The 3 highest months rainfall ever recorded.

I wonder if this period of global warmth is finished ?

Nigel, That sounds like our winter here. We had 24C the other day. Sorry I couldn't resist saying that.

Tyrone

Nigel,

Here in the equatorial southern hemisphere winter, which is really summer the coldest it ever gets is 24 C at night.  And, in the equatorial southern hemisphere summer, which is really winter it may get below 20 C at night.  

I could not resist either.

dk

[chris.oz]

(elHoagie @ Jul. 23 2007,12:50)

QUOTE

(chris.oz @ Jul. 22 2007,05:17)

QUOTE

Last year on 24th December it snowed on the hills in Melbourne.

Daryl, Wal, and other east coast Aussies - I hope your palms recover, those photos bring back memories of January...

Chris - It snowed in the middle of the summer??

Hi Jack,

The snow did not persist for long, but yes it was below zero in the mountains and they are not very high !

Here is the wikipedia entry:

Mount Dandenong is a suburb and geographical area in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Its Local Government Area is the Shire of Yarra Ranges.

Mount Dandenong is also a mountain which is 633 metres tall, on which the suburb is located.

Light to moderate Snow falls has been recorded on Mount Dandenong once every couple of winters. Unusually, Mount Dandenong experienced snow fall on Christmas Day 2006, which is the middle of summer in Australia[2].

And the local newspaper story:

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,2...071-661,00.html

[happ]

Thanks for the newspaper article, Chris.  I wouldn't have believed that it could snow in summer at that latitude      

There are unusual weather patterns this year with severe flooding in China/UK & parts of US /Texas.

The latest US Weather service report on La Nina shows a very weak ENSO.  Here are excerpts:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)                     DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS                      

12 July 2007

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue during the next 2 months, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions equally likely thereafter.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific during June 2007, with average to below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the date line to the west coast of South America . . .

The evolution toward La Niña conditions slowed during June 2007.  The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific remained below-average, but departures were less negative, consistent with the increased temperatures at thermocline depth.  The low-level easterly winds remained stronger than average in the west-central equatorial Pacific, with suppressed convection across the equatorial Pacific and a weak area of enhanced convection over parts of Indonesia and northern Australia.  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.

Nearly all of the model forecasts predict below-average SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120-170°W) during the remainder of the year.  A majority of the statistical models indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer months, with several statistical models forecasting weak La Niña conditions during the fall or winter.  In contrast, most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a transition to La Niña within the next three months.  However, several of the dynamical models have recently been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred.  Given the large spread in ENSO forecasts, along with the slower than expected decrease in observed SSTs over the past few months, it is reasonable to expect either a slower evolution toward La Niña conditions or the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions.

Climate Prediction Center

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NOAA/National Weather Service

Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

[elHoagie]

That's crazy Chris!  thanks for the article..

[tim_brissy_13]

Right now it is 17C at 5:30 pm and it must've gotten close to 20C today.  It was the first day in a couple of months that I have felt some warmth.  Minimums over the last two night have remained above 10C, contrasting the three nights in a row last week below 4C.  The forecast for the next week shows no nights below 5C and no days below 14C, so things are starting to look a little better.

[chris.oz]

(tim_brissy_13 @ Jul. 25 2007,03:26)

QUOTE

Right now it is 17C at 5:30 pm and it must've gotten close to 20C today.  It was the first day in a couple of months that I have felt some warmth.  Minimums over the last two night have remained above 10C, contrasting the three nights in a row last week below 4C.  The forecast for the next week shows no nights below 5C and no days below 14C, so things are starting to look a little better.

Sure Tim,  

but I have seen the winters coldest nights in August in previous years,  when there is a clear night sky and a cold airmass over Melbourne.  

After September we seem to be safe from the 2C lows.

[Daryl]

I just got back from  a road trip down to Sydney. It was interesting to see the cold damage in northern  New South Wales, within a 3 hour drive of my place. All of the sugar cane is frost burnt for the top 12". There were many totally burnt palms as well as trees such as Jacarandas, which still had their foliage but were totally brown! It must have got really cold in some of those places. Hopefully we won't see anything like that again for a few years!

Daryl.

[philinsydney]

Do you remember anything more geographically specific, Daryl?

btw your old Alexandria palm in Engadine is still chugging along nicely.

[Daryl]

Philip, From what I could see from the highway, Ulmarra got hit pretty hard, and the damage was very obvious e.g entire mango trees were totally brown. Same with the Jacarandas there. Further south, even the banana plantations around Coffs Harbour were 50% burnt. Everywhere I looked, there was cold damage to some extent.

Thanks for the photo of my old palms!

Daryl

[eastern.nurseries]

This is the first time in 17 years we have seen it cold enough to do any damage to these pandanas red edge! They are tough