Aussie heatwave

[UK_Palms]

30 minutes ago, sandgroper said:

It's pretty wet and windy outside at the moment, fortunately we're getting some rain. The weather bureau are saying it will be sunny and back up to 28c by Thursday which is perfect weather for our ANZAC day commemorations.

It looks pretty cold and wet in WA at the moment. A high of 16C for Perth on Friday and 11C for Albany. 

We're finally getting some spring heat in my neck of the woods now. It was 24C here today, with 25/26C forecast for tomorrow and right through to Tuesday. It's extremely dry here at the moment as well, evidenced by the numerous bush/heath fires raging in the south of England right now. I have only recorded 3.4 inches of rain so far in 2019 and we're almost 1/3 of the way through the year...

[Tyrone]

17 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

It looks pretty cold and wet in WA at the moment. A high of 16C for Perth on Friday and 11C for Albany. 

We're finally getting some spring heat in my neck of the woods now. It was 24C here today, with 25/26C forecast for tomorrow and right through to Tuesday. It's extremely dry here at the moment as well, evidenced by the numerous bush/heath fires raging in the south of England right now. I have only recorded 3.4 inches of rain so far in 2019 and we're almost 1/3 of the way through the year...

Yes that's right. We were 24C yesterday and today has mostly been single digits with strong winds, heavy rain and hail. At 2pm it was officially 6C, but around 9 or 10C at my place. The coldest day I've ever experienced here. We've had over 32mm of rain today, some explosive thunder claps that rocked the house. One rolling thunder blast lasted around 20-30 seconds and rattled all the windows. Got the fire raging now. Back into the low to mid twenties all of next week. 

The farmers will be loving this. Anzac Day is when seeding season officially starts so there will be plenty of soil moisture to germinate wheat and canola.

Just got off the phone to friends in Devon UK and its 24C there. Nice early warmth for the UK.

[UK_Palms]

1 hour ago, Tyrone said:

Just got off the phone to friends in Devon UK and its 24C there. Nice early warmth for the UK.

I have just clocked 26.5C here this afternoon. Not bad for mid April in the UK (middle of spring). We might reach 27/28C tomorrow as that is supposed to be the hottest day of this warm spell. 

Tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, melons... everything has been planted nice and early this year. I think we'll have another scorcher this summer (by UK standards)...

[Tyrone]

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/good-friday-cold-blast-in-albany-brings-april-snow-to-wa-for-first-time-in-49-years/529610

[GottmitAlex]

Heat wave is over. But seems like a very early winter. Take precautions.

 

 

[UK_Palms]

Albany had snow. Damn! And that's pretty early for such an event to happen, being mid autumn for you guys. My family in Perth say it has been unseasonably cold in recent days there too.

In light of our warm spell here in the UK, it still isn't as warm as it was this time last year here, when we recorded 29C on this very day last year, in 2018.  We had 3 days over 27C during that warm spring spell last year. Whereas we'll be lucky to see 27C tomorrow.

[Tyrone]

Albany had hail, the Stirling Ranges had snow. About 100 kms inland and at around 1000m asl. Going to be 28C here on Friday according to the forecast. Back to summer we go.

[UK_Palms]

Scorcher again here today, by our spring standards at least. I registered 29C here at 4pm today. Bush fires breaking out up and down the country, which is pretty unusual for spring. This one is actually in Yorkshire in the North but there are several to the south of me as well. A consequence of the paltry 13 inches of rain we have had in the past 12 months (since April 218) and 0.3 inches of rain this April, so far. Only 3.4 inches of rain since Jan 1st...

Looks more like Australia than England...

 

 

[Tyrone]

Back to warm weather again. Yesterday was about 24C and today was 25C. Blue skies and dry. Denmark to the west of us had 70mm on Friday when the cold front blasted us. But you'll hear nothing about that in the media as there are no BOM observation sites anywhere near it. It was one wet cold day.

[Tyrone]

On 4/21/2019 at 2:37 AM, UK_Palms said:

Scorcher again here today, by our spring standards at least. I registered 29C here at 4pm today. Bush fires breaking out up and down the country, which is pretty unusual for spring. This one is actually in Yorkshire in the North but there are several to the south of me as well. A consequence of the paltry 13 inches of rain we have had in the past 12 months (since April 218) and 0.3 inches of rain this April, so far. Only 3.4 inches of rain since Jan 1st...

Looks more like Australia than England...

 

 

That's heath land burning and it's not even August. With only 325mm of rain in that area in one year, that is truly ominous for the UK. 

The UK isn't meant to burn like that. The UK may have to institute the Australian methodology of making every second farmer a volunteer fire brigade member and gear them up with fire trucks, radio networks and training systems to help combat fire in bushland and compliment the paid career fire fighters, who fight fires everywhere else like buildings and cars etc. 

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Tyrone said:

That's heath land burning and it's not even August. With only 325mm of rain in that area in one year, that is truly ominous for the UK. 

The UK isn't meant to burn like that. The UK may have to institute the Australian methodology of making every second farmer a volunteer fire brigade member and gear them up with fire trucks, radio networks and training systems to help combat fire in bushland and compliment the paid career fire fighters, who fight fires everywhere else like buildings and cars etc. 

It was another hot one here yesterday with 28C recorded. The fires are raging out of control over here now with 47 individual fires in the UK since Thursday. I saw 2 helicopters going back and forth doing water dumps to the east of my house yesterday afternoon as plumes of smoke rose over the horizon. Then I awoke to hazy conditions and a thick smell of smoke in the air this morning. Very ominous given the time of year, being mid-spring here. Even northern Ireland has had fires. So much for 'April showers'. I mean I have only recorded 13 days with rain so far in the whole of 2019! In fact just as I type this, I am hearing reports of another wildfire about 1.5 miles from me. I have a bad feeling about this summer ahead... I just can't believe how dry it has been here over the past 12 months. Perth is a 'Mediterranean' climate and averages 30 inches of rain a year, compared to the 20 inches I get here. But just 13 inches of rain over the past 12 months is very worrying indeed.  

One thing about the UK though is that the landmass is pretty small and the population density is very high. So if a fire does break out, a large numbers of firefighters can reach it quickly from a number of major cities. Whereas AUS is so large and sparsely populated that it might not get reported for ages, and it would take ages to get firefighters out there in position. And even then you can only get so many out there to deal with it due to the distance, which allows it to keep spreading. So that is a massive disadvantage that you guys are up against down under. I think that is the main reason you guys are equipping farmers to be volunteer firefighters. I can't see that happening in the UK for the reasons I mentioned above. 

 

[Tyrone]

It is worrying that the UK is burning like this. 

Here in Australia the farmers started the volunteer bush fire brigades out of necessity a very long time ago. The government caught up later and have attempted to organise things into a more controlled regime. Even still it can be a bit chaotic and ad hoc. The farmers were on their own on the farms and had to protect their crops, houses and equipment from burning, and they would help their neighbours do the same. They formed the first groups which later became brigades. In general the paid fire brigades just look after the towns in Australia. National Parks are looked after by the parks and wildlife departments across the country. So the whole country is covered by some sort of fire authority. It's when the fire gets into National Parks that fires can get massive and last for weeks. Generally bush fires on farm land are responded too quickly and get put out before they become massive. The issues became complex when the national parks service deliberately light fires in bushland areas and it then gets out of control and gets into farmland and threatens towns. Lots of finger pointing when that happens. 

[sandgroper]

Not looking too good for the farmers but looking very pleasant for my coconut.

[Exotic Life]

12 hours ago, Tyrone said:

It is worrying that the UK is burning like this. 

Here in Australia the farmers started the volunteer bush fire brigades out of necessity a very long time ago. The government caught up later and have attempted to organise things into a more controlled regime. Even still it can be a bit chaotic and ad hoc. The farmers were on their own on the farms and had to protect their crops, houses and equipment from burning, and they would help their neighbours do the same. They formed the first groups which later became brigades. In general the paid fire brigades just look after the towns in Australia. National Parks are looked after by the parks and wildlife departments across the country. So the whole country is covered by some sort of fire authority. It's when the fire gets into National Parks that fires can get massive and last for weeks. Generally bush fires on farm land are responded too quickly and get put out before they become massive. The issues became complex when the national parks service deliberately light fires in bushland areas and it then gets out of control and gets into farmland and threatens towns. Lots of finger pointing when that happens. 

Also burning in Holland and even the first fires reported in Scandinavia this weekend.  Similair to UK we had a hot and dry year in 2018 and winter rains where not enough to get everything back up again. Biggest issue is that people don't see the danger because nature is starting to grow again and looks fresh and healthy but actially a little deeper the ground is bone dry. 

Meanwhile in Southeast Spain city Alicante had floodings this weekend after 130 mm of rain in 3 hours.  Some places nearly recorded 300 mm of rain in just 20 hours. 

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Exotic Life said:

Also burning in Holland and even the first fires reported in Scandinavia this weekend.  Similair to UK we had a hot and dry year in 2018 and winter rains where not enough to get everything back up again. Biggest issue is that people don't see the danger because nature is starting to grow again and looks fresh and healthy but actially a little deeper the ground is bone dry. 

Meanwhile in Southeast Spain city Alicante had floodings this weekend after 130 mm of rain in 3 hours.  Some places nearly recorded 300 mm of rain in just 20 hours. 

Global warming / climate change my friend. 

It is not the same climate I remember as a kid, just 15 years ago. I remember as a kid being stuck inside during lunch/recess at school constantly because of the rain outside. We weren't allowed out because it was always raining pretty much every day, or at least 75% of the time. But nowadays, it never rains. Maybe on like 1 in every 10 days the past few years. The rain has become extremely unreliable and when it does rain, it is so light that it barely amounts to anything. You could have 3 days in a row that does have rain, but still only register 0.1 inches. So the sun is still able to dry it up very quickly.

So the rainfall pattern has changed completely here. And when we do get the droughts, which are getting more and more common, we're having fires. Combined with the increasingly hotter temperatures. It seems to be pretty bad in June and July especially in recent years. I have lost so much woodland and moorland around me in Surrey, which has been burnt to the ground in recent years during droughts and heatwaves.

And while I type this, a mountain village in 'Snowdonia' in northern Wales is on fire today and about 20 homes have been destroyed. I have attached some pics below. Bushfires in England in April is one thing, but it is affecting Northern Ireland and Wales now as well, in April!!!! Which is very ominous. Thankfully it is cooling down this week and some rain should arrive. Fingers crossed, because the UK is burning...

[palmad Merc]

Yes, this is all related to the Hadley cell expansion, keeping polar lows and any other rain bearing system away from mid latitude zones. 

[sandgroper]

42 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Global warming / climate change my friend. 

It is not the same climate I remember as a kid, just 15 years ago. I remember as a kid being stuck inside during lunch/recess at school constantly because of the rain outside. We weren't allowed out because it was always raining pretty much every day, or at least 75% of the time. But nowadays, it never rains. Maybe on like 1 in every 10 days the past few years. The rain has become extremely unreliable and when it does rain, it is so light that it barely amounts to anything. You could have 3 days in a row that does have rain, but still only register 0.1 inches. So the sun is still able to dry it up very quickly.

So the rainfall pattern has changed completely here. And when we do get the droughts, which are getting more and more common, we're having fires. Combined with the increasingly hotter temperatures. It seems to be pretty bad in June and July especially in recent years. I have lost so much woodland and moorland around me in Surrey, which has been burnt to the ground in recent years during droughts and heatwaves.

And while I type this, a mountain village in 'Snowdonia' in northern Wales is on fire today and about 20 homes have been destroyed. I have attached some pics below. Bushfires in England in April is one thing, but it is affecting Northern Ireland and Wales now as well, in April!!!! Which is very ominous. Thankfully it is cooling down this week and some rain should arrive. Fingers crossed, because the UK is burning...

Some cold wet weather heading your way should help with the fires.

[UK_Palms]

@sandgroper Yeah, it's cooling down thank god and we are getting some rain by tomorrow hopefully. I can already feel the difference in temperature today as we only topped out at 21C here. Compared to 27C yesterday, 28C on Sunday, 29C on Saturday, 26C on Friday etc. It remains to be seen how much rain we get though, as it is usually just very light drizzle for an hour or so. The forecast suggests that we are entering a wet spell, but I'm not convinced we will get much rain. They have forecast plenty of rain days since Jan 1st, but I have only recorded 3 inches of rain since then... averaging about 0.8 inches a month. 

[Silas_Sancona]

10 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Global warming / climate change my friend. 

It is not the same climate I remember as a kid, just 15 years ago. I remember as a kid being stuck inside during lunch/recess at school constantly because of the rain outside. We weren't allowed out because it was always raining pretty much every day, or at least 75% of the time. But nowadays, it never rains. Maybe on like 1 in every 10 days the past few years. The rain has become extremely unreliable and when it does rain, it is so light that it barely amounts to anything. You could have 3 days in a row that does have rain, but still only register 0.1 inches. So the sun is still able to dry it up very quickly.

So the rainfall pattern has changed completely here. And when we do get the droughts, which are getting more and more common, we're having fires. Combined with the increasingly hotter temperatures. It seems to be pretty bad in June and July especially in recent years. I have lost so much woodland and moorland around me in Surrey, which has been burnt to the ground in recent years during droughts and heatwaves.

And while I type this, a mountain village in 'Snowdonia' in northern Wales is on fire today and about 20 homes have been destroyed. I have attached some pics below. Bushfires in England in April is one thing, but it is affecting Northern Ireland and Wales now as well, in April!!!! Which is very ominous. Thankfully it is cooling down this week and some rain should arrive. Fingers crossed, because the UK is burning...

While not all that well versed on the country's climate,  certainly agree that fires like this there in England, or anywhere in that part of Europe ..in April.. is eye opening / alarming.  Hope weather conditions bring relief soon.  

Saw a post shared by a US climate scientist i follow on Twitter  ( Daniel Swain ) from another climate scientist in England ( Dr. Thomas Smith ) who posted some map graphics detailing changes in the climate across the U.K. over the last 50 or so years which are currently  / will continue to contribute to weather conditions which favor more potential fire events. If interested in seeing the post / interpreting displayed data for yourself, take a look on / scroll down on Daniel Swain's twitter feed.

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

While not all that well versed on the country's climate,  certainly agree that fires like this there in England, or anywhere in that part of Europe ..in April.. is eye opening / alarming.  Hope weather conditions bring relief soon.  

Saw a post shared by a US climate scientist i follow on Twitter  ( Daniel Swain ) from another climate scientist in England ( Dr. Thomas Smith ) who posted some map graphics detailing changes in the climate across the U.K. over the last 50 or so years which are currently  / will continue to contribute to weather conditions which favor more potential fire events. If interested in seeing the post / interpreting displayed data for yourself, take a look on / scroll down on Daniel Swain's twitter feed.

Just checked out his Twitter and he has a few interesting posts on there, including footage of a large wildfire in northern Ireland which I had not seen.

He certainly seems to back up the notion that climate change is the cause of these fires we have been seeing last year and this year in the UK. There's a post that suggests the length of warm spells has more than doubled since 1990, which is the leading cause of the fires. I suppose that is largely the case in other places as well like Spain, Australia, California etc. 

After 2 separate fires gutted large sections of moorland & woods not far from me yesterday, my county has now issued a total blanket ban on all BBQ usage today. And anyone caught using a BBQ outside of their own garden/yard is subject to a £1000 fine, as BBQ's are being blamed for a number of the fires. Crazy to think my local county has banned BBQ's in April.

They're talking about a hosepipe ban coming into effect on May 1st as well, meaning it will be illegal to use a hosepipe. Apparently water reservoirs are running at 10% capacity and rivers are at 30-40% capacity. We're almost at the stage where it is impossible to replenish the depleted water sources now. Even if we have twice the average rainfall this year (which we clearly won't), we'd still be way down on the water table. The problem is 30 million people live in the southeast of England which is the hottest, driest part. Which further strains the water resources...

[palmad Merc]

https://www.france24.com/en/20190401-australia-sees-record-temperatures-fourth-month-row

And April looks like clocking another warm one as maximum and minimum temps exceed at least 2 degrees Celsius. 

So the trend continues....... 

[cbmnz]

On 4/24/2019 at 2:51 AM, palmad Merc said:

Yes, this is all related to the Hadley cell expansion, keeping polar lows and any other rain bearing system away from mid latitude zones. 

Certainly noticing that here at 38S. We used to, apart form sometimes 1-2 months in mid summer sit poleward of the sub-tropical ridge, in the Westerly belt. It mean't probably a slightly cooler climate overall than could be expected at sub 40 latitude, although winters quite mild apart from localized radiative cooling and inversion sometimes in favorable conditions. 

But it mean't a generous rainfall of ~1200mm fairly evenly spread throughout the year ,  good for farming, and little extreme weather. 

But in recent years, particularly since December 2017  have seen high pressure persist for weeks at a time, used to happen sometimes in Jan to March period but very rare outside of that. Spring, particularly October and November  used to have  very reliable period of roaring Westerlies, had to put up with every year.  But last year anti-cyclones persisted pretty much all through October and November and the spring Westerlies didn't happen at all. That's almost unheard of.

I keep telling myself not to jump to conclusions and that human memory is a very poor data-logger. But it's hard not to think a very noticeable shift in climate is happening now. If 35-40S is  going to be within the sub-tropical ridge for 6 months of the year or more now,  a significant change of climate is coming, without irrigation best growth is going to be over Winter April to October and very dry summers will become normal.

   

[Tyrone]

The subtropical ridge has definitely been blocking cold front activity this week. It got to 28C today and yesterday was 27C. Warm for 35S almost at the beginning of May. Cooler weather and rain is coming mid week, but 23C again at the end of the week. The palms are all looking great.

[UK_Palms]

Just to bump this thread again... the fires are back in the UK. Wales, Scotland and England have all been affected in the past 48 hours.

Rain cannot arrive soon enough for me. I am surrounded by forest and bone dry grasslands that are just waiting to go up in flames 

Thankfully there should be some rain this weekend, fingers crossed. Everything is just so dry at the moment...

 

[greysrigging]

• Alice Springs, Yulara and Tennant Creek in the Central Australian desert region have broken all time records for the warmest overnight temps in June ( first winter month )
  Alice Springs had a 31c ( 87.8f ) day  and a 21.8c ( 71.2f )overnight temp yesterday. Averages for June are 19.8 ( 67.6f ) max and 5c ( 41f ) min. There was a frost on the ground -0.7c ( 30.7f ) only a coupla days ago in the Alice.

[sandgroper]

1 hour ago, greysrigging said:

• Alice Springs, Yulara and Tennant Creek in the Central Australian desert region have broken all time records for the warmest overnight temps in June ( first winter month )
  Alice Springs had a 31c ( 87.8f ) day  and a 21.8c ( 71.2f )overnight temp yesterday. Averages for June are 19.8 ( 67.6f ) max and 5c ( 41f ) min. There was a frost on the ground -0.7c ( 30.7f ) only a coupla days ago in the Alice.

They're amazing temps for this time of year!

[greysrigging]

A severe and prolonged heatwave is forecast for much of the Continent in the next week or so. Many models are showing near record and record December heat for southern coastal and low altitude sites in the south eastern States. Some media outlets are mentioning the magical 50c value ( The Australian all time record dates back to 1960 and stands at 50.7c ( 123.3f ).
Likely a few 48's and even 49 for some lowland inland stations next week.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-12/australia-could-see-hottest-day-on-record-as-heatwave-hits-perth/11795006?pfmredir=sm&fbclid=IwAR1TOKprvkiiNGIHnHHkzpr4V6T2Wu4ISK_C5D9pOXUUgX5EJax-Cz6dqRk

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/like-a-furnace-massive-heatwave-could-roast-australian-records-20191213-p53jps.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1cJnkHl4A60u1tXWxHRbirO8FQxD9-fyfSHyGkm3b2sudtvJZO5aQObv0#Echobox=1576204394

[cbmnz]

Hot for the test cricket in Perth. Have been well above average here since start of Nov due to a stuck pattern. But looks like it changes after this weekend and have at least 10 days of just 20 to 21C highs and decent rain every 2-3 days.  Better that drought I guess.

[greysrigging]

 A copy/paste from a local weather page..... "Wow just wow we are gobsmacked!!

We have never seen the ECMWF model forecast a 50c anywhere in Australia before!! It is estimating a possible 50c on the west coast of South Australia Thursday December 19th. Just insane!!

This type of heat is not just deadly for the sick, elderly, children, wildlife, pets but ANYONE in general.

PLEASE PLEASE stay safe and cool!! Keep as much fluid up as possible!! THIS IS NOT JUST ANY ORDINARY HEATWAVE!

[cbmnz]

The ECMWF is normally quite conservative when forecasting high temps compared to the GFS.

[greysrigging]

1 minute ago, cbmnz said:

The ECMWF is normally quite conservative when forecasting high temps compared to the GFS.

Agreed... but its still a week out so I am a bit sceptical atm.......

 

[cbmnz]

1 minute ago, greysrigging said:

Agreed... but its still a week out so I am a bit sceptical atm.......

 

Yeah, I had a look and GFS is not predicting as high temps as EC, for once. Its model must not be producing as "perfect a storm" as the EC is, for now. Shudder to think what numbers it would be throwing out for that area, if it was.

[Komang]

This hot weather already burn few of my plants 

[greysrigging]

Starting to look scary if it comes off ....

[sandgroper]

43 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

Starting to look scary if it comes off ....

Very scary, the last thing the firies in NSW and Qld need.

[Tyrone]

It’s 9am and already 32C. For Perth that’s not so unusual but down on the coast on the southern ocean that’s way hot. They were only forecasting 29C today. Not even close.

[greysrigging]

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/heatwave-to-deliver-extreme-temperatures-in-parts-of-sa-nsw-and-victoria-bom-says/530690

 

[Tyrone]

It got to 38C today. Hottest day in 2 years. Normally it’s drissling and barely 25C this early in summer here. What will January and February bring?

[palmad Merc]

27 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

It got to 38C today. Hottest day in 2 years. Normally it’s drissling and barely 25C this early in summer here. What will January and February bring?

The eastern Indian Ocean temps are slowly rising, so hopefully more rain will help keep temps down. Computer models are showing back to normal rainfall second half of summer, fingers crossed. 

[Komang]

2 hours ago, Tyrone said:

It got to 38C today. Hottest day in 2 years. Normally it’s drissling and barely 25C this early in summer here. What will January and February bring?

It's in Albany bro?

Last summer it very nice pleasant place there.