Summer down under

[tropicbreeze]

The past few days have seen some reasonable rain here. Brought the running total for March so far to about average. The whole wet season, however, is still running at about three quarters of average to now. Unfortunately though, today is the last day of the chance for rain (70%) for the forecast period. The week ahead is to be sunny, dry, 36C every day and UV index 15. Winds will be light so less evaporation/drying out.

Of course, wet ground with warm sunny days and the grass and weeds will be rocketing. No prizes for guessing what jobs will be on the priority agenda for the next few weeks.

A couple of weeks back my dam overflowed for the first time this season but only for two days. Last night it started to trickle over again, second time overflowing this season. A far cry from the normal 3 months of overflow. The water table is still well below what it should be.

This morning's photo in the rain.

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by tropicbreeze

[greysrigging]

The BOM certainly picked this event.... right down to the turning off of the rain tap with today being hot and sunny in the suburbs. Yesterday was only a max of 25c (  whats that high 70's ?). Today was about 33c in town. 34c in the suburbs tomorrow.

[Tyrone]

The weather is on the turn down here. What amounts to a tropical low that doesn't form into a cyclone will run down the west coast and then fall apart over the SW of WA, then almost instantly a westerly stream will bring more rain. The 10 day rainfall accumulation at the moment is looking at over 41mm.

[greysrigging]

4 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

The weather is on the turn down here. What amounts to a tropical low that doesn't form into a cyclone will run down the west coast and then fall apart over the SW of WA, then almost instantly a westerly stream will bring more rain. The 10 day rainfall accumulation at the moment is looking at over 41mm.

Hopefully not another 'Alby'...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Alby

[Tyrone]

5 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

Hopefully not another 'Alby'...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Alby

It won't be like Alby. Alby was a cyclone that turned extratropical but actually never made landfall believe it or not. If it had hit Perth squarely it would have flattened it. I remember it back in 78 when it rained mud in Perth. I was 4 years old and I remember the stormy weather, then it pelted and mum and dad came running inside completely covered in red mud, and I looked outside and it was raining mud. Everything was RED.

[greysrigging]

2 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

It won't be like Alby. Alby was a cyclone that turned extratropical but actually never made landfall believe it or not. If it had hit Perth squarely it would have flattened it. I remember it back in 78 when it rained mud in Perth. I was 4 years old and I remember the stormy weather, then it pelted and mum and dad came running inside completely covered in red mud, and I looked outside and it was raining mud. Everything was RED.

Big bushfires fanned by the winds too from memory.

[Tyrone]

Summer has gone now. We’ve had a minimum of 15.6 C and a max of 17C with rain and blowing gales. Nearly 10mm of rain and I might be lighting the fire tonight. 

Juania, Ceroxylon, Hedyscepe, Leppidorachis and Rhopalostylis weather today.

[sandgroper]

BOM are saying 25c and heavy rain here in Perth tomorrow, looking forward to the rain if it comes. Was 30c here today but the humidity was building as the day wore on.

[Tyrone]

I didn’t light the fire in the end. The night didn’t cool down from the day temp. Instead it kept raining. Got to a sticky 25C and we are waiting for the storms to arrive from the north. It’s meant to be another sticky 26C tomorrow as well. The garden is loving it.

[Tyrone]

It’s a beautiful morning out there this morning. We had over 16mm of rain between midnight and sun up with a warm night and this morning when I went out for a walk it was still and cloudy with 21C and 98% humidity and totally drenched. It reminded me of waking up in the Daintree with the sweet smell of the trees and soil. Everything is looking fresh and happy even in the shadehouse part of the nursery area. I wish it stayed like this. I’d be growing Lipsticks on the bank of the lake.

[Tyrone]

This evening is so tropical. We had a 27C day with high humidity (21C dewpoints) and a bit of rain at various times. Now it’s calm with the sound of thunder in the distance. Everything is damp and well hydrated.

Here comes the rain again.

Happy days.

[tropicbreeze]

The wet season keeps looking like it's ending and then after a few days some showers come along. Still way below average rainfall. In this uncertain wet season the models are predicting a late cyclone. Something like 10 days out so it's not certain how it could turn out. The current modelling indicates a cat 2 or cat 3 system (depending on which model you follow) moving onto the north coast of the NT.

There's a lot of dry air around and if there's a surge it could knock the guts out of this system. But a cyclone isn't unprecedented this late in the season. In fact, TC Monica (high end cat 5) came through in the last week of April. I got 673mm rain for April that year, a lot of it from Monica.

Meantime, it keeps drying out, my dam level dropping fast. My water tanks are full though, even half average rainfall would easily do that. Temperatures and humidity are high and the weeds are going crazy.

[greysrigging]

4 hours ago, tropicbreeze said:

The wet season keeps looking like it's ending and then after a few days some showers come along. Still way below average rainfall. In this uncertain wet season the models are predicting a late cyclone. Something like 10 days out so it's not certain how it could turn out. The current modelling indicates a cat 2 or cat 3 system (depending on which model you follow) moving onto the north coast of the NT.

There's a lot of dry air around and if there's a surge it could knock the guts out of this system. But a cyclone isn't unprecedented this late in the season. In fact, TC Monica (high end cat 5) came through in the last week of April. I got 673mm rain for April that year, a lot of it from Monica.

Meantime, it keeps drying out, my dam level dropping fast. My water tanks are full though, even half average rainfall would easily do that. Temperatures and humidity are high and the weeds are going crazy.

Mate... that is an outstanding April total ! Where were you in 2006 to get that sorta rain ? I got 338mm in Leanyer that year...'twas the never ending 'wet'.  I was working at the Darwin LNG and we seemed to be rained off every other day... ok just looked at my records..... rained 21 out of 30 days for the month ! Be great to get one of these again in 2020....
Right e oh.... you Noonamah hillbillies always blow us northern suburbanites outta the water.... lol
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=136&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2006&p_c=-40462968&p_stn_num=014222

Edited March 27, 2020 by greysrigging

[Tyrone]

 

Well March is a bit of a schizophrenic month signally a change from summer conditions and the movement into cooler weather where Antarctica has a greater influence with the odd cold front or the remains of them coming into contact with the southern wa coastline. 

Weve been getting cooler weather to this week experiencing really warm weather. Thursday was around 32C with evening thunderstorms and a bit of short sharp rain periods with high humidity. It was a great light show. Then yesterday we were back up to 33C with a balmy warm humid night which turned into rain around midnight. We are now in a South westerly flow with moisture coming off the southern Indian Ocean and southern ocean. So not cold but not warm either. The weeds and lawn are just loving it.  All the fields within 40kms of the coast are a rich dark green.

I predict a warmer than average winter with average rain. I have a theory that if the weather pattern in March is a cold one, winter will be cold, if it’s warm in March winter will be warm. We’ve had a balmy warm March with no cold snaps (ie 4C minimums) so it’s going to be a good winter. I’m hoping anyway.

[tropicbreeze]

18 hours ago, greysrigging said:

Mate... that is an outstanding April total ! Where were you in 2006 to get that sorta rain ? I got 338mm in Leanyer that year...'twas the never ending 'wet'.  I was working at the Darwin LNG and we seemed to be rained off every other day... ok just looked at my records..... rained 21 out of 30 days for the month ! Be great to get one of these again in 2020....
Right e oh.... you Noonamah hillbillies always blow us northern suburbanites outta the water.... lol
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=136&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2006&p_c=-40462968&p_stn_num=014222

I was living in Jabiru (for work) at the time. Only came back home on days off. My average for April is around 117mm (of course the calculation includes the 2006 figure).

Monica virtually stripped the landscape to the ground.

 

 

[greysrigging]

^^ Beatrice Hill scored 1000.5mm for April 2006 and Acacia Hills 812.7mm, Manton Dam 701.imm............amazing totals for April !

[tropicbreeze]

On 3/28/2020 at 2:47 PM, greysrigging said:

^^ Beatrice Hill scored 1000.5mm for April 2006 and Acacia Hills 812.7mm, Manton Dam 701.imm............amazing totals for April !

The weather can go way off the average scale here sometimes. Back in something like the early 1990's in June there was heavy flooding rain from the east Alligator across into central Arnhem Land . I had to wait a week before driving in but still drowned my car in the Liverpool River. Not a nice feeling sitting in a high clearance car with water up to my chest, wondering how many crocs were watching.

The dry air surge has come through and kicked the potential developing low into the Gulf of Papua. Now it looks like heading east from there all the way to the Solomons. New Caledonia or Fiji might be in for a rough time. But looking much less like a late wet season downpour for us. Temps are up, got over 37 here today. Places further inland got to 40.

[cbmnz]

Looks like this one of my Rhopies is going to get this  new frond open before winter. Does not seem to worry it that it is no longer getting any sun now the elevation has dropped.

[Tyrone]

Well, the weather isn't really cooling off as quickly as it normally does at this time of the year. We are still getting nights in the teens celsius every night except for maybe one night this month where we went down to 5.8C. The long range forecast for the May to July period seems to agree with my gut feeling that it will be a warmer milder winter with normal to above average rainfall. The BOM is predicting above average max's and mins with above average rainfall for the cold part of the year. Hopefully then we don't get even one morning with frost this year. My palms and coffee plant will just love it if that happens.

[cbmnz]

23 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Well, the weather isn't really cooling off as quickly as it normally does at this time of the year. We are still getting nights in the teens celsius every night except for maybe one night this month where we went down to 5.8C. The long range forecast for the May to July period seems to agree with my gut feeling that it will be a warmer milder winter with normal to above average rainfall. The BOM is predicting above average max's and mins with above average rainfall for the cold part of the year. Hopefully then we don't get even one morning with frost this year. My palms and coffee plant will just love it if that happens.

Don't know why but feel after two very mild winters should prepare for a more normal frost season this year. That said if the trend continues and don't even nudge -2.0C as the lowest temp for the winter will know there is something going on. Where that potted R. Baueri is I have not seen ice up since 2015, due to overhead canopy and proximity to the house. Question is do I move it, cover it, or hold my nerve and leave it as is for the whole winter.

[Tyrone]

7 minutes ago, cbmnz said:

Don't know why but feel after two very mild winters should prepare for a more normal frost season this year. That said if the trend continues and don't even nudge -2.0C as the lowest temp for the winter will know there is something going on. Where that potted R. Baueri is I have not seen ice up since 2015, due to overhead canopy and proximity to the house. Question is do I move it, cover it, or hold my nerve and leave it as is for the whole winter.

If it doesn't get below negative 2C I think that Rhopie is fine. Back in 2017 I had what I estimated to be a negative 3C event and didn't lose one Rhopalostylis bauerii at all. The leaves didn't barely tinge. Maybe it wasn't as cold as that. I was in the UK at the time, but I came back to find many torched plants. Even a big Eucalyptus is now half dead and I'm waiting for the top 10m section to fall one day. Palms that really suffered were Hyophorbe indica (lost one out of three), Dypsis pembana looked terrible but lost only a couple and one stem, and Pinanga coronata that I lost the main stem on but the suckers have taken over now. What surprised me was the burn I got on my Howea forsteriana under canopy and also Hedyscepe canterburyana. Newly planted Archontophoenix looked shocking but have all come back now better than ever. It was cold. I'd never seen cold damage like it in my life before.

[cbmnz]

That's interesting, as sellers here warn Baueri is not as frost hardy as Sapida or Sapida Oceania. So while those latter two are considered safe, Baueri might be considered marginal in this area.  There is one large and beautiful Baueri I admire all the time (well used to when I was working not far away from it)  but that's in the city centre so is getting maximum help from urban heat island.

If in your experience R Baueri was noticeably hardier than Howea forsteriana that is the good sign as while the latter would be even more marginal I have noticed a handful of established specimens around the place.

 

 

[Tyrone]

Yes, in my experience R bauerii is hardier than Howea forsteriana. R sapida may  be very very slightly more hardier than bauerii, just a whisker of difference, but not much.

[cbmnz]

19 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Yes, in my experience R bauerii is hardier than Howea forsteriana. R sapida may  be very very slightly more hardier than bauerii, just a whisker of difference, but not much.

Maybe it's just been assumed Baueri is less hardy because it comes from warmer range ,without anyone really testing it and there has been conformation bias at play.  -3C must be as cold as you should ever expect to see at same lat as NZ's far north and close to the ocean. 

[Tyrone]

14 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Maybe it's just been assumed Baueri is less hardy because it comes from warmer range ,without anyone really testing it and there has been conformation bias at play.  -3C must be as cold as you should ever expect to see at same lat as NZ's far north and close to the ocean. 

Yes I think -3C would be the coldest you would ever get here. The locals reckoned it was almost a once in a lifetime event. The avacadoe grower across the road lost his entire crop that year and quite a bit of damage to his trees too.

[cbmnz]

Fact that you have a commercial avocado grower across the road indicates that was not a normal event for your area.  This Rhopie has loved its spot over summer. Compare Nov 10 2019 to just now. 2 new fronds in less than 6 months.

Edited April 26, 2020 by cbmnz

[Tyrone]

9 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Fact that you have a commercial avocado grower across the road indicates that was not a normal event for your area.  This Rhopie has loved its spot over summer. Compare Nov 10 2019 to just now. 2 new fronds in less than 6 months.

It likes that spot.

[PalmCode]

On 4/26/2020 at 12:57 PM, cbmnz said:

Fact that you have a commercial avocado grower across the road indicates that was not a normal event for your area.  This Rhopie has loved its spot over summer. Compare Nov 10 2019 to just now. 2 new fronds in less than 6 months.

Yours is looking great.

Baueri are certainly the least frost hardy rhopalostylis. Just watch out for any newly opening fronds during a frost. At that size I'd bring it in if there was going to be a hard frost, but maybe it'd be fine there.

Also, so far Iv'e found they take the summer sun and drought probably better than my chatham nikaus. Iv'e got a a few that i'm going to to plant out in spring.

[cbmnz]

20 hours ago, PalmCode said:

Yours is looking great.

Baueri are certainly the least frost hardy rhopalostylis. Just watch out for any newly opening fronds during a frost. At that size I'd bring it in if there was going to be a hard frost, but maybe it'd be fine there.

Also, so far Iv'e found they take the summer sun and drought probably better than my chatham nikaus. Iv'e got a a few that i'm going to to plant out in spring.

You have heaps of them. That's a 40 litre PB my palm is in. Combined with the pumice fill that half barrel will be heavy to move now. Hope just covering will be sufficient therefore.

[PalmCode]

On a more negative note, this summers drought totally wiped out most of my north Auckland area R.sapdia seedlings. I didn't have enough spare water for them. Luckily all the ones in the ground have made it through fine.

[GottmitAlex]

1 hour ago, PalmCode said:

On a more negative note, this summers drought totally wiped out most of my north Auckland area R.sapdia seedlings. I didn't have enough spare water for them. Luckily all the ones in the ground have made it through fine.

Sorry to hear that.

 

[cbmnz]

15 hours ago, PalmCode said:

On a more negative note, this summers drought totally wiped out most of my north Auckland area R.sapdia seedlings. I didn't have enough spare water for them. Luckily all the ones in the ground have made it through fine.

Shame that. Must have been a tough decision after all the work to get them to that size. Was lucky to be on town water from a solid source here, had to let lawn brown off but didn't have to even think about not watering anything potted. That is next level of impact.

[PalmCode]

@cbmnz

Yea it was, set me back a few years but sometimes you've got to focus on the other plants you want to keep alive. Definitely going to need another water tank if our summers are going to carry on like this!

A Good day of rain here today though.

Edited May 3, 2020 by PalmCode

[Tyrone]

4 hours ago, PalmCode said:

@cbmnz

Yea it was, set me back a few years but sometimes you've got to focus on the other plants you want to keep alive. Definitely going to need another water tank if our summers are going to carry on like this!

A Good day of rain here today though.

That’s really sad to hear that. 

Are you permitted to use ground water and a pump at your place? New Zealand is very volcanic so maybe you’re not permitted. 

[PalmCode]

 

14 hours ago, Tyrone said:

That’s really sad to hear that. 

Are you permitted to use ground water and a pump at your place? New Zealand is very volcanic so maybe you’re not permitted. 

.Yeah that is another option. I know a few people in the area that have bores that were done over 30 years ago. I'm not sure how deep you have to drill and the costs. But it's probably not cheap now days.

[Tyrone]

I’ve drilled a bore here and have a settlement tank (25000L) that I pump into. I then use another pump off the tank to irrigate. It’s a life saver. In the warmer part of the year  everything gets a drink. It’s too big to irrigate every day In one go so I split it up over a 3 to 4 day rotation.