A toasty, ..but not awful ( ..except when breeziness stops, lol ) 103 -108F around town at 2:51PM under passing, but slowly increasing high clouds..

Clouds, courtesy of ..what is left of Douglas.. will continue to increase thru the rest of the afternoon / evening, and stick around thru the day tomorrow, helping to limit what could've been another open oven door kinda 4th, to something a bit more manageable.

While it isn't listed in the current forecasts, keep a close eye on the UA WRF HRRR runs tomorrow..

While it may not add up to more than a few sprinkles, locally at least, reasonably consistent thinking from the HRRR runs over the last few days suggest " spit ", ...here or there tonight thru Sunday morning.... can't be totally ruled out as thicker moisture ( still confined to the mid high levels ) passes through town.

2 fer 1 special Sat imagery today lays out why....

What is left of Douglas, sending a decent plume of high and mid level moisture our way.. Low level circulation entertains fish out over the Pacific.




At the same time, bit more of an increase in activity / N.W.-ward flow down across Sonora today that might trigger gravity wave - induced disturbances that could provide enough lift in the mid levels to spark another round of widely isolated late night / morning sprinkles / bolt or two as such a disturbance gets caught up in some weak " out of the south " flow and pushes through Cen. AZ. if that even occurs at all..



If some of the more aggressive HRRR runs pan out, might even be a chance for a little more activity tomorrow evening..

We'll see...

As decent of a job as the HRRR can do picking up on near -term precip chances, it can also overhype it's thinking/ a given outcome, just like any other WX model ...so, I'll be watching, regardless.. Never pass on even remote opportunities for surprise bolts

" Better " chances for storms < mainly dry, even up there, however > up in the mountains, esp. east and south of town thru the weekend.

Oven Door opens again down here, starting on Monday, while Dew Points start a slow climb back to where they should be atm thru the week.



Hot in T- Town too, but with more clouds ( and a storm or two perhaps??? ) around



As the 4C High starts building back over the area, first ...good... signs of an uptick in Monsoonal activity return to the mountains, and S. AZ starting sometime next week, ..Slowly < ...ever so slowly... > inching their way closer to the valley as we head toward next weekend.. ..Per the current thinking ..which of course, is subject to change.

As usual, this idea shows up best the closer you get to the border...




Today's 14 day and 3 week thoughts.....







Fingers crossed......

Hot, breezy, ...and a bit gross out there at 5:16PM.

111F right now, after hitting 115F, with a few 117 -120F neighborhood level readings around 3PM.. With that said, ..what is this i see lurking above the horizon to my east and south? ..Could it be the season's first storms?




Afternoon T.C. Satellite view confirms it.. Yes, indeed, weak as they might be, Eastern and southern AZ is lighting up today, with storms knocking on Tucson's doorstep, and some sort of outflow - looking feature trying to set up in the mountains just east of Superior..



Storms nearby = storms for the valley tonight? ..Probably not.. 112+ heat + current position of the 4C High = lots of CIN ( Convective INhibition over the valley atm ) Essentially, when it is this hot, it takes big storms to break through any cap that keeps outflow generated clouds from forming into storms as the outflow moves through.

While Dew Points have been rising over the last couple days, they're still below 50 ..Right now at least. That will change shortly.



While it isn't in any of the current forecasts, ..and is quite remote, there have been some HRRR runs that have suggested the possibility of isolated brief and weak activity being generated close to the valley / near Casa Grande as outflows from storms to our south ..and/or east.. roll west out of the mountains.

At best? ..maybe someone, somewhere on this side of town ...or in C.G. sees a sprinkle / bolt or two. For most? = probably just some breeziness out of the east /south, with maybe some dust and debris clouds in the mix..

As mentioned, it's already been an interesting start to the season ..so.... we'll see whether or not the next couple days yields a couple late night surprises.


Similar story for both tomorrow and Thursday ..Gross 112+ heat, some breezes, ..and rising Dew Points ..making gross feel gross -err ..With mainly dry storms roaming the mountains /deserts to our east and south.

Headed forward? ..current forecast thoughts offer more optimism ..and actually may be a bit conservative as we reach the start of next week.










One thing is for sure. While the 110+ heat should moderate by the weekend as the 4C high starts shifting to our north and east, Dew points will be heading for ...the 60s, if not a bit higher.

..That should help get the ball rolling, storm / rain -wise.

Currently 103F in the east valley with a high of 119F and low of 82F. It was definitely a toasty one today.

I don't remember the exact date when we previously had any meaningful rain but it's probably been over three months. We need rain!

A warm ..but not overtly gross... 98F at 9:42PM, w/ a Dew Point in the upper 50s and some lingering breezes behind a decent sunset gust front, and a little associated dust, put an end to the gross 113F high earlier this afternoon..

Expect the same deal tomorrow ..Maybe a deg or two shaved off for Friday.. If it doesn't end tomorrow, Excessive heat products hoisted locally right now should end on Fri.

Want some rain? Unlike what occurred up in the mountains ..and around Tucson, both today ( and yesterday, ) you'll have to head to / hang out in Nogales as activity hugs both the AZ / NM and MEX / AZ border for the next two days as the 4C high starts gearing up for it's next act..

For now, a nice hint of what lies ahead.. Little more moisture around up above as this shelfie rolled toward the western horizon = could've generated some showers..











Next time. Be Patient.



Dan will be live tomorrow ( 11Am PST ) to share his thoughts on what looms beyond the weekend ahead.

Bouncing between a hot 108 ..and a " not as gross " 111F our there at 3:27PM. That said, add in the currently fluffy Dew Point reading of 57 and the " real feel " has been wavering between 113 and 118..

While the Excessive heat warning will end around 8PM, expect another hot night in the mid / upper 80s and 90 / 90+ < 90 /90+ readings = closer to downtown PHX >

Touch cooler tomorrow as things start to change..

" Changing Times " = clearly evident in today's afternoon COD T.C. Satellite loop...




While steering flow in the upper levels will drive storm activity currently bubbling up over the White Mtns / Gila Wilderness in New Mexico toward the south / southwest again, keeping a majority of today's storms confined to Cochise Co. and the borderlands, note that the flow is starting to take on a more " east to west " trajectory today than it has over the last couple days ...A good sign that the center of the subtropical high, currently stretched out between L.A. and the PHX area, is starting to shift north toward Utah and western Colorado ...Where it should be by this time tomorrow.

That shift = increased east to west upper level steering flow, and increasing moisture levels through the entire atmosphere, which should boost storm coverage, getting it closer to PHX.

While not in the official forecast currently, if storm activity is as widespread to our south tomorrow as some of the forecasts are suggesting, it is entirely possible some deg. of left over shower activity / few bolts rides a dusty outflow boundary into -at least- this side of the valley late tomorrow night. This is something that has been hinted at by various HRRR runs over the last couple days, so ..We'll see.


Regardless, most of the current forecast thinking is pointing at Sunday night / Monday being our first good shot at storms across the valley..

** As usual, whose house / side of town sees rain, vs. another that doesn't = that is how the monsoon works, 99% of the time. Nothing predictable about that. ....So no whining about it if you stay dry.. **

Beyond anything we might see by Monday morning, next week looks to stay reasonably active as the subtropical high stays in a favorable position for continued east / southeasterly flow. Some hints at an Easterly Wave / Inverted Trough approaching the area by mid / late week, ...which would really enhance rain chances / coverage / up the heavy rain threat..






As usual, further south you go, rain chances look better.. Highs in the 80s to about 90, lows in the mid/upper 60s = Sonotia / Patagonia area looking great.



On that note, as humid as it may feel out there now, ..it could get quite soupy, esp. by desert standards, next week..

D.P's in the lower / mid 60s look pretty likely all of next week and are pretty typical during Monsoon season. Rarer? the consistent suggestion by both the GFS and ECMWF ( Especially ) of seeing Dew Point readings topping 70deg ..if not flirting with / breaching 80, which ..i honestly can't remember the last time i'd seen 75 -82deg Dew Point readings suggested in a forecast for this area.

More clouds / storms around + higher D.P's / Humidity = temps will come down next week to -at least- the lower 100s. Cloudier / stormier days? = highs might stay below 100.

At the same time, As is normal during the season, the " A slow day often follows an active day " rule is in effect.. Outside of a disturbance enhancing day to day rain potential, rare that it rains -every day-, in the same exact location as yesterday, during an active period. Esp. in the lower deserts. Tucson, Mtns, Borderland region? = better nearby terrain features for getting daily storms.. That's just how it is..





....And it's not just AZ / Western NM that will see the season get kicked up a few notches next week.. Pretty much all of the region will see some deg. of increase in monsoonal storm activity, inc CA.

*** See Dan's latest WX West blog post for those details / other thoughts.. ***

https://weatherwest.com/archives/43915






Looking further out? ..For Now... second half of July / peek into Aug. looks ..respectable.. ....in terms of monsoon season precip lean chances.


As always, take what you see suggested today w/ that dash of salt ..aand that healthy dose of " convince me " skepticism.









While any activity that forms out by Hawaii won't do squat here, have to keep an eye on any possible T.C. storm development closer to Mexico as the E. Pac. goes into another active cycle. They may ..stay away.. or push pulses of deep tropical moisture our way.





Empty SD card? ..check.. Tripod plate put where i won't loose it again, ..check..

Foothills / Borderlands greening up nicely, ..Asap? ....Let alone everyone's yards here in the valley and nearby getting some good soakings ..soon..? ..Fingers Crossed....


Saddle up, Buckle up, or take a seat ...Appears the show is about to start...

104F + 60deg Dew Point = feels like 109 out there at 11:29am.

Interesting day ..and evening.. ahead? ..both locally and west of AZ? possibly..

Morning Sat. check:



4C / Subtropical high quickly shifting toward Cen. UT and CO, ....where areas in Montana, Wyoming and points east may see temps reach / exceed ....110F..

Increasing east / southeasterly flow under it ( ...overhead.. ) pretty easy to see. Buildups starting to fire over the White Mtns / areas over S.E. AZ and S.M.Oc. in Sonora.

Remnant, well defined Meso - cyclone looking blob just about ready to cross N. Baja as it quickly skirts across the top of the Gulf..

All of that equals..

..While the AM forecasts have been a bit ..timid.. regarding the potential for Thunderstorm activity reaching the valley, HRRR runs this morning have ..so far at least.. been quite bullish on getting ..some deg. ... of activity into at least the east valley by this evening ..Possibly lasting deep into the overnight hours..





Because it only < currently > includes this corner of the valley, Blanket " Blowing Dust Advisory " hoisted for the area today may be well under done ..In terms of dust storm potential for the valley later.. Again, As aggressive as storm activity is looking to our south / east on the HRRR runs right now, we could see a Haboob - type event vs. just some diffuse dust reaching the area.. Don't be surprised it the advisory area is expanded valley -wide later on this afternoon..



Storm -wise?

" Marginal " risk < for severe storms > has been extended to PHX. ..Was confined to areas south of Casa Grande earlier. With the " Slight Risk " area expanded, that points to increased chances that storm activity down there could be strong enough to generate an outflow that may be able to generate ..at least.. widely scattered showers / storms closer to the valley ..if not in valley itself... later today / tonight.

IMO, Current, " 10% chance for a storm or two here in Chandler tonight " from the NWS = may be 20 =25% under the actual chance for activity tonight. We shall see..





For now, tomorrow's storm risk potential from the SPC has increased as well..






Further west? Spinny thing quickly headed toward the coast near Tijuana / San Diego may spark showers across S. Cal ..if it hugs the coast a little more than some forecasts suggest atm.

....or send this first wave of high - based showers ..and/or storms.. toward the Central Coast / Bay Area/ Sac. Valley.. ..If the bulk of moisture associated with it rotates further offshore before turning north toward the coast..

This isn't the only chance for Monsoon Season showers / storms out there, either.. Tonight's / tomorrow's activity here will send the next pulse of moisture westward.




Locally, if it can blow around, get it locked down.. Know what to do if on the road and caught in a dust storm.

Fingers crossed for some rain.. Let's see what the evening has in store..

Thermometer is currently at 110F in the east valley after posting the first low of 90F this morning. You can feel the higher humidity, even if it's not the same as the eastern US but it doesn't take much to make things that much worse when it's this hot.

Afternoon Sat Check: ....Getting ..closer???

*** ..Will be shocked if we don't see quite a duster approaching from the south and east in the next couple hours.



Tucson, via the UA cams: -Getting -hammered...

Catalinas View: ..Wait for the Rain Bomb..
http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wximagery/movies/last_90_minutes.mp4

Rincons:
http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wximagery/movies/rincon_last_90_minutes.mp4


106F w/ a 56 deg. Dew Point, and increasing clouds out the window at 6:35PM.


*** Speak of the Devil ..It Begins.....

Edited 18 hours ago18 hr by Silas_Sancona

ROASTING

106F + 63deg Dew Point, yields a current real feel of 115F at 10:58AM under hazy skies, as we wait to see if " today is the day " for the first decent storms of the season here in the valley..

Morning Sat. Check: Some isolated storms passing just to the south late last night, after a pretty good duster around 9PM.



Today's Spinny, mesocale -level thingy, spinnin' squarely over coastal San Diego County = the left overs of another big night for storms across N. Sonora / borderlands of AZ.

Sprinkle or two under all that cloudiness stretched out across the rest of CA atm..

Upper level flow over AZ = Better east to west flow across the state than yesterday ..which should help get storms into the valley, rather than steering them more toward the southwest..

Some bulidups starting to fire over the White Mtns / across S. NM already as well..


Whether or not they result in a nice soaking in one's back yard or not, dead center under the " slight " risk category today, = today's storm prospects look decent.. ..W/ Wind and duster day #2 likely being the biggest hazard.






Don't count out the rain though.. More than enough moisture in the air for some dumpers, ..if your house, neighborhood, ...or section of the valley lucks out.
-Fingers -Crossed.