A toasty, ..but not awful ( ..except when breeziness stops, lol ) 103 -108F around town at 2:51PM under passing, but slowly increasing high clouds..

Clouds, courtesy of ..what is left of Douglas.. will continue to increase thru the rest of the afternoon / evening, and stick around thru the day tomorrow, helping to limit what could've been another open oven door kinda 4th, to something a bit more manageable.

While it isn't listed in the current forecasts, keep a close eye on the UA WRF HRRR runs tomorrow..

While it may not add up to more than a few sprinkles, locally at least, reasonably consistent thinking from the HRRR runs over the last few days suggest " spit ", ...here or there tonight thru Sunday morning.... can't be totally ruled out as thicker moisture ( still confined to the mid high levels ) passes through town.

2 fer 1 special Sat imagery today lays out why....

What is left of Douglas, sending a decent plume of high and mid level moisture our way.. Low level circulation entertains fish out over the Pacific.




At the same time, bit more of an increase in activity / N.W.-ward flow down across Sonora today that might trigger gravity wave - induced disturbances that could provide enough lift in the mid levels to spark another round of widely isolated late night / morning sprinkles / bolt or two as such a disturbance gets caught up in some weak " out of the south " flow and pushes through Cen. AZ. if that even occurs at all..



If some of the more aggressive HRRR runs pan out, might even be a chance for a little more activity tomorrow evening..

We'll see...

As decent of a job as the HRRR can do picking up on near -term precip chances, it can also overhype it's thinking/ a given outcome, just like any other WX model ...so, I'll be watching, regardless.. Never pass on even remote opportunities for surprise bolts

" Better " chances for storms < mainly dry, even up there, however > up in the mountains, esp. east and south of town thru the weekend.

Oven Door opens again down here, starting on Monday, while Dew Points start a slow climb back to where they should be atm thru the week.



Hot in T- Town too, but with more clouds ( and a storm or two perhaps??? ) around



As the 4C High starts building back over the area, first ...good... signs of an uptick in Monsoonal activity return to the mountains, and S. AZ starting sometime next week, ..Slowly < ...ever so slowly... > inching their way closer to the valley as we head toward next weekend.. ..Per the current thinking ..which of course, is subject to change.

As usual, this idea shows up best the closer you get to the border...




Today's 14 day and 3 week thoughts.....







Fingers crossed......

Hot, breezy, ...and a bit gross out there at 5:16PM.

111F right now, after hitting 115F, with a few 117 -120F neighborhood level readings around 3PM.. With that said, ..what is this i see lurking above the horizon to my east and south? ..Could it be the season's first storms?




Afternoon T.C. Satellite view confirms it.. Yes, indeed, weak as they might be, Eastern and southern AZ is lighting up today, with storms knocking on Tucson's doorstep, and some sort of outflow - looking feature trying to set up in the mountains just east of Superior..



Storms nearby = storms for the valley tonight? ..Probably not.. 112+ heat + current position of the 4C High = lots of CIN ( Convective INhibition over the valley atm ) Essentially, when it is this hot, it takes big storms to break through any cap that keeps outflow generated clouds from forming into storms as the outflow moves through.

While Dew Points have been rising over the last couple days, they're still below 50 ..Right now at least. That will change shortly.



While it isn't in any of the current forecasts, ..and is quite remote, there have been some HRRR runs that have suggested the possibility of isolated brief and weak activity being generated close to the valley / near Casa Grande as outflows from storms to our south ..and/or east.. roll west out of the mountains.

At best? ..maybe someone, somewhere on this side of town ...or in C.G. sees a sprinkle / bolt or two. For most? = probably just some breeziness out of the east /south, with maybe some dust and debris clouds in the mix..

As mentioned, it's already been an interesting start to the season ..so.... we'll see whether or not the next couple days yields a couple late night surprises.


Similar story for both tomorrow and Thursday ..Gross 112+ heat, some breezes, ..and rising Dew Points ..making gross feel gross -err ..With mainly dry storms roaming the mountains /deserts to our east and south.

Headed forward? ..current forecast thoughts offer more optimism ..and actually may be a bit conservative as we reach the start of next week.










One thing is for sure. While the 110+ heat should moderate by the weekend as the 4C high starts shifting to our north and east, Dew points will be heading for ...the 60s, if not a bit higher.

..That should help get the ball rolling, storm / rain -wise.

Currently 103F in the east valley with a high of 119F and low of 82F. It was definitely a toasty one today.

I don't remember the exact date when we previously had any meaningful rain but it's probably been over three months. We need rain!