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What is your current yard temperature?

Featured Replies

Bay St Louis, Mississippi currently 75F at 2:30 in the afternoon. Over 15” of rain so far this month and still raining now. I’m not sure we have had a 90 degree day yet this year either. Usually we see 90 by April. March was warm, April was average, and May is cool. I’m enjoying it but some of my palms may be looking forward to some sun and heat.

Min of 68f/20c with a high of 95f/35c with 24% humidity a new May record high. Kew Gardens official hit 34.8c however St James’s Park is still offline. Under 300du ozone clear skies mixed with low humidity the UV index hit a 9 ☀️. Tomorrow is expected to be even hotter potentially 36c/97f.

78f/25.5c here still at 11.30pm, tonight’s definitely going to be warmer.

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Pretty annoyed about St James Park being offline as that is the warmest station in the UK from March - October and likely the warmest spot today.

Anyway, 34.8C at Kew Gardens it is.

34.7C for me here.

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London snapshot around 3pm…

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594 DAM is currently over us. The same as in Saudi Arabia. The heat dome isn’t going away in a hurry either. A month from now in June, this same setup would probably produce 38-40C nowadays.

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Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

Min of 71.6f/22c with a high of 95.5f/35.3c with 21% humidity on the vantage pro 2, centre of the lawn. St James park definitely would have been the warmest station if it were online. UV 9.

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Some microclimates in the garden got very hot today, where my heat loving plants are true date palm, Arids, queens washys ect it reached over 106f 4ft above the ground. The patio stones were scorching hot to stand on as well. I actually had heat damage today from a few plants, some of my begonias, fatsias and palm seedlings.

Officially Kew Gardens broke the May record again with 35.1c however I do suspect St James’s Park would have been warmer. Even by 9:30am it was over 30c.

Very warm tonight still at just past 2am. Central London is currently one of the warmest areas in all of Europe tonight still 75f/23.9 with 64% humidity.

10 day says it is currently in the mid 80s out atm ( 9:47PM ) ..but it doesn't feel like it ( feels cooler ) ..Nice, regardless..



Final days of the month and Spring can be summed up pretty easily ..Nice ..with some breeziness as the week ends, up ..a little.. by Sat., Touch warmer by the start of June ..And Summer 2026.

Screenshot 2026-05-26 at 21-28-26 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

As mentioned earlier, keeping an eye on the opening days of June for the potential for another round of " Monsoon Season flirting " in the form of mountain shower and storm chances sneaking back into the forecast. Not a slam dunk this far out obviously, but showing up on pretty much every model run today. so, ..We'll see what happens.



Peeking at Time and Date's thoughts? Could the typical, Pre - Monsoon season, June Nuke Fest be on the horizon??

Screenshot 2026-05-26 at 21-28-05 Chandler Arizona USA 14 day weather forecast.png

..Has wavered in and out of the forecast models as we reach the 8th -10th timeframe so, ..you know what i'm gonna say..

For the rest of the week, enjoy what is left of Spring, while it lasts....

Warmest May night on record for the UK again the previous night…

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The daytime record max for May fell as well again for the UK and England with 35.1C / 95F at Kew Gardens in London.

Hottest day in May in Welsh history too.

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Still 27-28C in central London at 11pm.

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Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

Peek - a - Boo ..i see you..


Not the first " peering into mid June " model run to suggest cracking the 110+ mark...

Screenshot 2026-05-27 at 22-54-10 GFS Model – 2m Temperature (shaded) for Southwest U.S. Tropical Tidbits.png

Screenshot 2026-05-27 at 22-39-07 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png



...But is the first GFS run of 2026 to hint at reaching the Nuke Fest 500mb threshold of 594mb ..Which = surface temps flirting with the upper 'hundred - teens ..and the possibility of seeing that dreaded number just beyond that.

Screenshot 2026-05-27 at 22-38-18 GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain_Frozen) for Southwest U.S. Tropical Tidbits.png

Sizzle - biased and a one and done model run? ...or???

Time will tell..




In the meantime, 76F at 11:26PM..

Some high clouds clouds around thru about mid day tomorrow, but staying ..reasonable..

Upper 80s, to the lower 90s..

We are having heavenly weather here the last week; we haven't been affected by the heatwaves in western Europe. The minimum temperatures are around 55-60 F (14 C) and maxima around 80 F (27 C). It's been quite humid too which I guess my tropicalesque plants must love. I planted vetiver and it is growing very fast. We also had a couple of light rains this week.

I hope June stays relatively cool too, I am not looking forward to our first heatwave.

Zone 9b: if you love it, cover it.

These nights man. The May nighttime record got beaten 3 nights in a row. It now stands at 21.4C at Camborne in Cornwall.

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Another baking hot day here again today and arguably the worst feeling of them all due to the humidity. This is also the 6th day in a row of 30C+ / 86F+.

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Locally up to 32C / 90F right now with real feel of 41C / 106F. This event is going to be 10 consecutive days over 28C / 82F in May for me here. Saturday will probably end up being in the 30’s C again I bet. Could potentially be 8 consecutive days of 30C> in spring here…

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Also if we don’t get rain soon we are in big trouble here. May is currently on 0.3 inches for me here lol. It has been a mega dry spring for us down here.

Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

80F at 10:08PM, after flirting with the century mark this afternoon.. Up, a hair, tomorrow as Meteorological Summer arrives..

While not official just yet, and despite both April and May being far less intense compared to March, looks like this spring will still be the warmest on record. By how much? that data should be out within the next few days.

Week ahead? looks pretty typical for the start of June.. Persistent upper level low / associated troughiness that has been hanging around the Great Basin / Southwest over the last few days waning / fading away = modest height rises taking it's place, Which will = temps rising into the 100 - 105 or 6F range locallyover the next few days before pulling back -slightly- for a couple days late week..

Screenshot 2026-05-31 at 11-40-35 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

Hot, but not too bad..

At the same time, various model runs have continued waving flirty hints of some moisture trying to seep back into the mountains of Eastern and Southeastern AZ from New Mexico sometime between Wednesday and next weekend ..or a little further beyond.

As is typical for the start of June, ..if.. any activity does bubble up up there at that time, majority of it will end up generating gusty winds and dry lightning, rather than any real wetting rains ...So we'll have to keep an eye out for any new wild fire starts.

If we're lucky, maybe we'll see a few clouds roaming local skies at times.



Looking further out? ( ..Since it is June, ) you know the inevitable June Nuke Fest lurks somewhere, out there on the horizon..

While not anchored to any of the current 10 day forecasts yet, various model runs continue flirting with the idea of ..some.. deg. of multi -day jump to 108+ heat sometime near mid -month as the subtropical / 4 - corners high attempts to push its way north of Mexico and set up / drop anchor over the region at the same time..

That said, ..as has been the case all spring, ...or since the end of March at least, for every model run that suggests a big heatwave dawning on the horizon, there's another ..or two.. that nix 'es that idea ..or kicks the can down the road a little more.. So.. While we know it will happen, how soon we get there remains to be determined, for now at least..

All that said, Tomorrow marks day 1 of the final 15 days before Monsoon Season arrives and we typically don't start the rainy season without roasting for a week - 10 days before the first monsoon - related showers and dust arrive.. so, We'll see what kind of Monsoon Season lead up 2026 has in store.



Looking at what could be a big player in this years' rainy season? ..Appears the East Pac. may finally wake up w/ the potential for at least one system spinning up out there on the board over the next 4-8 days.

Screenshot 2026-05-31 at 11-30-04 .png

Should the highlighted area with the greatest potential for development end up forming, it will stay too far west to offer up anything for us, but, it is at least a start..

Highlighted area closer to Mexico? Lets see what it does. Some model runs spin up something that heads toward Baja, other runs keep a formed system confined to S. Mex. before slamming it into the mountains down there..

With that said, This is where we'd want something that would send " Start of Monsoon Season " moisture our way to form. Last year, June 2021 ..and June 2018 are 3 good examples of Tropical system -related surges that arrived right before ..or right after the start of the season / helped get it under way..

Watching them closely, Various Tropically related thoughts from the ECMWF also suggest things starting to get a little more interesting out there as we get into June..

We'll see what happens ...and when the first Cicadas are heard..



Cooler weather has arrived here but the ground is absolutely baked. I finished May on 7.1mm / 0.3 inches.

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Kew Gardens May data for reference. It finished on 9mm / 0.4 inches there and you can see the near record breaking mid-month cold snap followed by the sudden flip to record breaking warmth.

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Anyway 23.1C / 73.5F at midday here. As I said, much cooler. Finally expecting the first rain in 10+ days later this evening too.

Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

Heat index hit 109 today. The heat index in my grow room is absolute hell, like 125 or so. Lol my pots are all warm, the thermostats turned the heat mats off. Then around 5 or 6 the sky got black and I'm so used to the rain going around us so I watered everything. The temps dropped into the 70s (outside) and it's been storming ever since.

Hit a high of 96F yesterday, very unexpected. There's usually a buildup to heat like this here, but not this time.

A rare June cold front sweeps through tonight, and tomorrow's high looks to be in the low 80s with lows in the low 60s.

Palms - 1 Bismarckia nobilis, Butia odorataBxJ, 4 BxSChamaerops humilis, 1 Chamaedorea cataractarum, 1 Chamaedorea elegans, 1 Chamaedorea microspadix1 Chamaedorea radicalis1 Hyophorbe verschaffeltiiLivistona chinensis1 Livistona nitida, 1 Phoenix canariensis2 Phoenix roebelenii, 1 Phoenix sylvestris, Ravenea rivularis1 Rhapis excelsa1 Sabal bermudana, Sabal palmetto, 1 Sabal minor, 2 Syagrus romanzoffiana, Trachycarpus fortunei4 Washingtonia robusta
Total: 37

109F at 2:57PM = Hot ..but not crazy.. A few 110 /110+ neighborhood - level readings mixed among a 104 -108F majority but nothing any hotter than we've already seen ..Which is kind of crazy considering we saw those numbers ..in- MARCH- ..instead of when you expect them < ..Right Now.. >

Aside from the heat, some interesting stuff again on the afternoon T.C. Satellite imagery..

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Desert_SW-truecolor-21_36Z-20260603_counties-map-glm_flash_noBar-38-1n-10-100.gif

Long Lived M.C.C. that exploded across southern and eastern N.M. and far West TX yesterday drove a reasonably strong push of moisture west over the divide into both S.E'rn and the Mtns of Eastern AZ overnight..

As you can see, push of moisture was enough to get a reasonable deg. of storms firing off up there / good buildup activity going across the rim further west, ..and not too far to the east of the valley, over the foothills in eastern Pinal Co..

While not included in the current forecasts, morning and mid - day runs of the HRRR, and 12zGFS do try to push some of this moisture toward the deserts by later this afternoon / evening..

Does that mean we might see anything? ..Other than a period of dusty outflow driven breeziness, and some scrappy " debris " clouds?, don't expect this episode would be strong enough to generate shower activity that could make it into the valley.

That said, of the two areas that have a non - zero chance of seeing evening spit ..or a quick, dying shower? ..Tucson is the place to be..

Moisture may hang around eastern / southern AZ for a few days, so isolated to widely scattered shower /storm chances will continue thru at least Friday.

Screenshot 2026-06-03 at 14-51-40 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

Here? ..Hot, ...but not too bad/ Pretty standard fare for early June. ..Temps pull back by the weekend, with maybe more clouds passing thru at that time.


Checking in? ..We have our first named system of the E. Pac Hurricane season on the board, with the potential for one or two more to form over the next few days..

Screenshot 2026-06-03 at 15-16-31 .png

Amanda will wander around as a T.S. out in the Pacific for a few days before dying out. Other two areas? we'll see what they do, later. Neither look like they would influence our weather, for now at least.

A Hot - n' - Thirsty Friday afternoon across state 48 today..

108F at 2:35PM, with some 110 /110+ readings scattered around various neighborhoods across the valley atm..

Forecast for the weekend / heading into the final days before the start of Monsoon Season looks ....Pretty much the same as today..

Screenshot 2026-06-05 at 14-08-25 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png


A little " cooler " tomorrow and to start the week, warming up again to ..pretty typical.. levels by next weekend, per the current forecast.

Aside from that, Some clouds around on Sunday and will need to pay attention to winds if traveling around the central and western portion of the state tomorrow..

Screenshot 2026-06-05 at 14-15-13 NWS Phoenix.png

Tis' that time of year when the Red Flags come out anytime winds are predicted to exceed 20mph, and humidity levels land in the basement ( 8 -10% )



You can thank yet another dry, late season storm system passing thru the PAC N.W. / Great Basin for that..



Will someone shut < and lock > the door on the N. PAC and allow summer to get going already?? ...We'll see...



Today's 3 -4 week thoughts = danglin' more carrots.

Screenshot 2026-06-05 at 14-10-38 Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook.png


While the meat and potatoes section of the 3 -4 week discussion shrugs a bit..

Screenshot 2026-06-05 at 14-11-34 Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook.png



Today's thoughts from Dan do the same, while most of the current Wx model thoughts are busy trying out for the circus..

Screenshot 2026-06-05 at 14-08-47 Dr. Daniel Swain (@weather.west) • Threads Say more.png


Screenshot 2026-06-05 at 14-08-59 Dr. Daniel Swain (@weather.west) • Threads Say more.png



Screenshot 2026-06-05 at 14-09-19 Dr. Daniel Swain (@weather.west) • Threads Say more.png


Someone shut the friggin door already, lol...

Screenshot 2026-06-05 at 14-09-34 Dr. Daniel Swain (@weather.west) • Threads Say more.png

102 -105F around town under lots of Cirrus on 6 - 6 - 2026. Increased cloud cover thru the rest of the afternoon should cap temps, esp. once anticipated breeziness starts kicking in toward sunset..

Notch or two lower, temp - wise, tomorrow..


With the dawn of Monsoon Season about ready to break above the horizon, Something interesting to eye ball thru the week enters the picture as some of the morning WX model runs do some gymnastics..

Screenshot 2026-06-06 at 13-25-53 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

For now, all i'll say is ..Keep an eye on Dew Point readings in the forecasts as we head toward next weekend / the start of the following week..

Something else that shows up in the current 10 day in Tucson = another hint to watch closely..

Screenshot 2026-06-06 at 14-40-50 Tucson AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

greenthumb this from their NWS office discussion..

Screenshot 2026-06-06 at 15-13-53 National Weather Service.png




......Dangled carrot act at the circus, soon to be yanked?, ....or something ..interesting, ..right out of the gate??. ..We shall see..

Before ..whatever next weekend brings, perhaps a day ..or 3??.. of reaching above 110, Up here at least.

Can I play this game or do you have to be in a cold climate to play? Here’s our temps for May here in the mountains above Hilo, Big Island Hawaii. Been cool and damp and soggy. El Niño ruined our normally pleasant May with 40 niches of rain, that’s way above our normal rainfall. That’s on top of 97 inches since January. So our total for the year is 137 inches and we have 7 months to go.

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Axel at the Mauna Kea Cloudforest Bioreserve

On Mauna Kea above Hilo. Koeppen Zone Cfb (Montane Tropical Cloud Forest), USDA Hardiness Zone 11b/12a, AHS Heat zone 1 (max 78F), annual rainfall: 130-180", Soil pH 5.

Click here for our current conditions: KHIHILO25

Upper 90s to the low 100's across the Valley at 1:50PM MST. Should reach 102 or 3 later, then up a deg or two more tomorrow thru the rest of the week as longwave troughiness wanes and the subtropical / 4 - corners high attempts to build back into the area from the southeast.

With a a week to go until Monsoon Season 2026 arrives, some interesting things continue to dangle in the current forecasts as we head thru the week / into next weekend / reach the start of the season..

While it had been discussed in Tucson's NWS office discussions over the past few days, You start paying a little more attention when our NWS office starts hinting at similar things..

Screenshot 2026-06-08 at 12-46-48 National Weather Service.png

Screenshot 2026-06-08 at 12-46-02 National Weather Service.png


As the circled sections of both longer term thoughts discussions today mention, as the 4C High makes it's next run at setting up over the region over the up -coming weekend, upper level flow over AZ turns southerly / southeasterly, which could start moving moisture north out of Mex, ..and ..at the very least, drive Dew Point readings up into the " moist -ish " upper 40s / 50s ..if not higher.





While an uptick in moisture / Dew Point readings may start over the weekend, if it continues beyond ..say into / beyond the first 3 days after the 15th, this could represent the " official / ol' timer " " start - of - the - season - cue " ( = 3 back to back days of Dew points averaging 55Deg ) ..This would be among the earliest such occurrance of that in some time..
** See the graph below **


Monsoon " start " dates, using the 3 - day rule:

Screenshot 2026-06-08 at 14-11-30 Monsoon.png



Very rare you see very similar thoughts suggested in all 3 10 day forecasts, as it relates to Dew Point readings.. We'll see how much they flip n' flop before the weekend / next week.

Screenshot 2026-06-08 at 12-47-21 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

Screenshot 2026-06-08 at 12-49-26 Tucson AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png


Screenshot 2026-06-08 at 12-50-21 Sonoita AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png



Influence from one ..or both?? of the two systems in the E. Pac. atm helping to get the ball rolling perhaps?

Screenshot 2026-06-08 at 12-51-09 .png


Of the two, moisture from Boris could skirt the S.W. Coast of Mexico and end up being drawn up the Gulf into AZ and Sonora..

Screenshot 2026-06-07 at 14-24-06 Facebook.png

A scenario pointed out by Chris Nunley yesterday..



At the moment, Christina is a bit of a wildcard.. As Chris mentions, one possible scenario after it crosses southern Mexico could send moisture / something tropical toward the Gulf Coast.

Another possibility, ...that the models have been toying with today, takes whatever is left of it to a point south of Tampico, then shoves it into the mountains down there, while sending a majority of it's moisture northwest across Mexico toward the Southwestern U.S.



Taken with salt advise included, Potential uptick in moisture is also showing up in today's 14 day.. We'll see which direction it goes thru the week.


Screenshot 2026-06-08 at 14-38-03 Climate Prediction Center - 8 to 14 Day Outlooks.png


Will it occur? ....or does all of this get dumped in the shredder, again, tomorrow ..or at some point over the rest of the week? ...We'll see..



That said, i did hear the seasons' first Cicada Saturday evening, a bit ahead of the " typically hear the first calls right around father's Day " time frame, so...

If i hear more, and the " First showers / storms of the season follow the Cicadas by 2 weeks " rule applies, perhaps what is dangling in the forecasts right now pans out..


For now, warming up thru the week.. We'll see if we hit / exceed 110F. Cloud cover suggested for both Thursday and Friday may thwart any 110+ run attempt.

A hot n' breezy Hump Day across state 48 today w/ highs in the 104 -108F range across the valley at 5:15PM.. Luckily, still dry enough out there that temps will cool off nicely ...By June standards.. Once the sun sets..

That starts to change tomorrow..

As mentioned Monday, Forecast for the back half of the week gets ..interesting..

Whether or not WE, here in the valley, see anything or not, much of the state will see fair to decent shower and T- storm chances as a surge of moisture from Mexico and the Gulf of CA. reaches the state just ahead of the start of our rainy season.

Here in the valley? we're going to have to wait and see how the forecast evolves over the next 24 -36 hours.. Some model runs have dangled light shower chances in the forecasts ( Friday night / Sat. morning ..and possibly again Sunday morning )

If we do see ..something.. rain amounts would be light, with gusty outflow winds, and / or lightning being the bigger threat.

Once thing that seems pretty certain? A big jump in Dew Points, ..which will also boost overnight lows into the 80s ..for at least a few days.

...those elevated Dew Point readings may hang around into -at least- the first half of next week..



Curious, i looked over data related to what the Avg. Dew Point readings are as Monsoon Season starts.

On average, 50 / 50+ D.P. readings typically aren't reached until the start of July, both here and in Tucson.

Screenshot 2026-06-09 at 22-03-09 Monsoon.png


Screenshot 2026-06-09 at 22-02-39 Monsoon.png

If the current forecast thoughts below are correct, we could flirt with 60deg. Dew Point readings over the weekend, and possibly on Monday ..With 42+deg readings hanging around thru the entire current forecast. Numbers like these would be WELL above normal for the start of the season..

Screenshot 2026-06-10 at 16-38-31 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

Screenshot 2026-06-10 at 16-37-36 Tucson AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

Screenshot 2026-06-10 at 16-40-18 Sonoita AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png


...As if that isn't interesting enough? ..While a forecast beyond 6 or 7 days is more fantasy / place - near - a - trash - can - worthy than trustworthy gospel, things could get " extra?? interesting " as we head toward the Astro. start of Summer / end of the month..

For one, looking like the nagging extra - active N. Pac. Jetstream that has been bringing late season troughs thru the west may finally get the hint and take off on it's summer vacation, allowing the 4c ridge to start solidly building west and north across the region ..which means our traditional, June Nuke Fest may not bee too far off ...Some model runs have been flirting with the idea of 115 -115+ heat again at least..




At the same time, some model runs have been suggesting more moisture surges bringing shower / storm chances into the state as the 4c high edges west from Texas and induces daily Mesoscale Convective Complex < M.C.C. > development across the Sierra Madre in Sonora and northern Sinaloa and southerly flow from the Gulf ( of CA ).

Outside chances of a couple easterly wave -induced inverted troughs trying to sneak into the picture from the Gulf of Mex. / Southeastern Mex. in some of the model runs as well.



While " far off in fantasyland " thoughts from -any- WX model are to be taken lightly days ahead of a suggested outcome, ECMWF, ..which most consider a pretty trustworthy WX model.. spat out something worthy of sharing today.

While 60+ Dew Point readings might not get a glance from folks in most other parts of the country, any time they cross the 60deg. mark here in the desert, it is down right fluffy out / nights get a bit more uncomfortable, even if green, leafy things love it..

360HR / 00z ECMWF dangled Dew Point readings reaching 64 -66degs here / in Tucson around the 20th..

Today's 12Z? ( Also goes out 360 Hours ) = Hold- My- Brahea.

Screenshot 2026-06-10 at 16-34-59 Models ECMWF — Pivotal Weather.png

...Yes, you're seeing that right.. Dew Points ..in the mid 70s, ...WAYY ahead of when we'd even reach an avg of 55degs.



If 50 /50+ is muggy / humid, 60 /60+ soupy / " fluffy " ..70 ...+? ...would be pretty darn oppressive, esp. by " Desert " standards. Even during our wettest summers, crossing the 70deg. mark is uncommon ..and wouldn't occur until sometime in July.

....Do i believe such a suggestion, this far out? ..Not really. this ..and / or the 00z run could be stretching the truth / biased a bit.

That said, Simply put, it is interesting that ..the " best ...?? " WX model out there... is already toying with the idea of excessive moisture levels here, right out of the gate.


....In a year of " It's Already Been Weird ", i guess we'll have to see what kind of weird -ness awaits as we enter what could be quite a summer ahead.


For now? 103F at 6:29PM, w/ some high and mid level clouds starting to nose into AZ from the Gulf, ...with a lot more around by Sunrise tomorrow...

109F right now in the east valley with a high of 115F and low of 73F. It's June and it's hot.

103 -109F and pretty stuffy out there w/ Dew points in the lower 50s across town at 2:25PM.. Lots of clouds and occasional spit passing thru various areas so far today as well.

Hot n' muggy mid to upper 80s once the sun sets, with the possibility of a shower ..or weak storm?? passing through overnight..

Pretty interesting set up across the Southwest and Mexico on the afternoon T.C. Satellite..

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-northmexico-truecolor-21_16Z-20260612_counties-usstrd-ushw-usint-map-glm_flash_noBar-29-1n-10-100.gif

Upper level low lurking somewhere off northern Baja /near San Diego to our west, Subtropical high lurking across areas to our southeast = AZ ..and most of the southwest.. under some deg. of southerly flow..

Lots of storm activity beginning to build across the entire length of the S. M. Oc. from the Sonora / AZ border, down to Puerto Vallarta, with an easterly wave / inverted trough -ish feature headed west northwest toward areas of E. Mex. near and south of Tampico..

All of this creates a very intriguing forecast as we head through the weekend and into the start of Monsoon Season..



Per current thinking, weak trough / upper level low off Baja / San Diego hangs around until at least Monday, which helps maintain southerly flow into AZ from the Gulf of CA / decent southeasterly flow from Sonora.

While the Subtrop. high to our east and south may shift around a little between now and Monday, it should continue to stay in a general position that helps keep some deg. of moisture moving west / northwestward across Mexico..

While rain chances may not be all that great for the valley, not out of the question someone in some part of town sees ..something, esp. if any smaller disturbances rotating up the gulf /up our way from Sonora tap deeper moisture / can bring it north into AZ.

One such feature to watch for this evening / overnight into the AM hours tomorrow will be the cluster of storms brewing over N. Eastern Sonora, and activity the east side of central and northern Baja. Gravity wave activity generated by storm complexes over Sonora is another thing to watch today ( Can induce gulf surges that import deeper moisture into AZ )

If moisture from the Easterly wave further south manages to make it west across Mexico, it too could influence our weather by the start of next week..



Tucson, Phoenix, ..The Borderlands, ..or up on the Rim ..Overall, one thing is for certain, besides the heat and some hot over nights here and in Tucson, ...45 - 60deg. Dew Point readings will rule the forecast until at least next Thursday or Friday ...and possibly beyond.

As mentioned, we'll see about any wet stuff, here at least. Rim Country / Mountains, Tucson and areas south and east of there? = you might get lucky..

Screenshot 2026-06-12 at 12-55-40 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png




Looking further out? Some good signs for the end of June / start of July in this weeks' 3-4 week forecast

...Fingers crossed..

Screenshot 2026-06-12 at 13-08-47 Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook.png

Screenshot 2026-06-12 at 13-08-26 Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook.png

Screenshot 2026-06-12 at 13-08-03 Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook.png



Adding to this, perhaps a non - zero chance of tropically influenced activity on the horizon??.. Per today's thoughts from the ECMWF..

Screenshot 2026-06-12 at 13-11-08 ECMWF Charts.png


Fingers crossed..

A hot and muggy 99F at 9:12PM w/ a dew Point in the low 50s..

Upper level flow deciding to turn more southwesterly today = what storms did form today stayed confined to the mountains and areas southeast of Tucson..

Anticipate a similar setup tomorrow, with any outflow that can reach the area generated by stronger mountain or borderland region activity maybe sparking some activity if strong enough.

Temps stayin in the same 105 -109F range as today.


On a side note: CONGRATS to the Knicks for breaking the streak, and sending the spur -tzz packin their broke az' wagon for the SAD journey back to the stables.

No oats for you tonight greenthumb

A hot n sticky 105F at 6:36PM, after reaching 110F ..W/ a Dew Point in the upper 50s ..and A LOT more shower / storm activity around on this Monsoon Seasons' Eve..

Even had a couple near miss showers / weakening storms pass just south of the house this morning..

Looking at the late Afternoon Satellite, w/ the exception of the Valley and Yuma atm, pretty much everywhere you look across AZ, there was a shower / storm ..or one nearby.. Quite active across nearby areas inc. most of New Mexico, Southern UT, S.W. CO., W. TX. and most of Mexico / East facing slopes of the mountains in N. Eastern Baja..

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Desert_SW-truecolor-01_21Z-20260615_counties-usstrd-ushw-usint-map-glm_flash_noBar-39-1n-10-100.gif

Activity today extends all the way to Puerto Vallarta and east almost to the Gulf on the east side of Mexico as well..

COD-GOES-East-regional-northmexico.truecolor.20260615.012619-over=counties-usstrd-ushw-usint-map-glm_flash-bars=none.gif

Fun stuff? yeah, Tucson saw some of that this afternoon..

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wximagery/movies/last_90_minutes.mp4

Not bad, not bad..



For the valley, as we kick off the season? ..Keep an eye on the forecast.. General, modest moisture feed from the south will continue, with upper level winds turning more north or northwesterly tomorrow instead of the westerly / southwesterly direction seen today ..Which could allow for storm - generating, Rim Country outflows to reach into the valley.

Tucson / Borderlands / Mountains? = Repeat of today ..if not a touch more widespread / stronger in some areas

Outflow from the storms that passed thru Tucson / Borderlands might try to do something interesting overnight / tomorrow morning as well ..A little more / slightly stronger AM showers / Iso. Storms across a wider portion of the valley perhaps?? ..We'll see.

W/ Dew Points hanging in the upper 50s / low 60s over night, lots of moisture around for generating some showers, if that moisture can get a lift.




Regardless, If we were looking for a reasonably good sign regarding all the talk of a " decent to ..excellent?? " season ahead, a day like today is exactly the kind of Monsoon Seasons' eve that we'd want to see..

Aside from our standard, mid - June heat, Let's see what opening day offers up..





Looks like the heat might return here with a vengeance again soon.

NAVGEM disgustingly hot for 7 days time with 41C / 106F in London area. Ridiculous numbers in France (major heat dome is definitely coming)...

navgemfr-9-174.png

ECM (Euro) is much more reliable, so we'll go with that. Just the 37C / 100F showing for Monday next week in 5/6 days time.

ECMOPUK12_150_17.png\

The models may just be overdoing it. We will know in another 24-48 hours.

Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

The UKMO (Met Office) pulls in a 25C+ hPa 850 airmass into southern England which would be near all-time record breaking for upper level heat.

IMG_3358.jpeg

IMG_3335.png

What does that translate to at surface level you might ask? Well… 40C / 104F in Somerset and Dorset in southwest England. So even hotter than the July 2022 heatwave for some places. Even 37C / 100F in Wales… in June.

IMG_3338.png

The ECM (Euro) has 38C / 101F for London on Tuesday and like 6 consecutive days of 35C+ / 95F+.

IMG_3355.png

There are worrying scenarios in there which feature all-time records later next week. Unlikely to occur, but still crazy to see on models. The Atlantic trying to fend off the heat for us, but SE England going well into the 40’s C potentially on some runs. 107F for west London on this…

IMG_3357.png

Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

@UK_Palms That is awful hot for that far north!

Lakeland, FLUSDA Zone 2023: 10a  2012: 9b  1990: 9a | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962)

3 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

@UK_Palms That is awful hot for that far north!

I’m seeing more upgrades as well today. The risk of us seeing 40C / 104F again is increasing for next week. The June record certainly looks like it is going to get smashed next week. Potentially 3-4 days of 100F+ here.

ARPEGE high res has 39C / 102F on Tuesday for me here.

IMG_3361.png

UKV showing similar with 38/39C on Wednesday. So maybe 2 consecutive days of 100F there for us down south basically.

IMG_3362.png

Neither model goes beyond that period as they are short range models. GFS however has 100+ degrees F again on Friday too.

IMG_3363.png

For some of us in Western Europe, this will probably be the worst heatwave ever on record, especially in parts of France.

Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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