Low of 44f/6.6c under clear extremely calm skies last with a high of 73f/22.7c with 13% humidity. This in the second day in a row the humidity has been under 20%, desert like weather. I’m having to flood the garden with water in the morning and evening to keep certain plants growing/staying alive. UV was a 6.  The temp hasn’t dropped as fast tonight and it’s currently 56g/13.3c at 1.20am. Next week the day temps look pretty good high 60s low 70s and the nights start to warm up to the low 50s consistently. The average high for April so far has been 17.1c here and will continue to climb.

Nice peaceful night.

2 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Low of 44f/6.6c under clear extremely calm skies last with a high of 73f/22.7c with 13% humidity. This in the second day in a row the humidity has been under 20%, desert like weather. I’m having to flood the garden with water in the morning and evening to keep certain plants growing/staying alive. UV was a 6.  The temp hasn’t dropped as fast tonight and it’s currently 56g/13.3c at 1.20am. Next week the day temps look pretty good high 60s low 70s and the nights start to warm up to the low 50s consistently. The average high for April so far has been 17.1c here and will continue to climb.

Chilly 5.1C here at 3am under clear skies after a max of 23.1C. Humidity down to 10% here earlier.

The state of those fires in Northern Ireland tonight. Absolute infernos.

 

 

Min of 50f/10c with a high of 72.1f/22.3c with 28% humidity. Which slowly rose late this afternoon as the clouds came in. It drizzled for a very short time this evening and that was it for rain! Uv was a 6.5. London Heathrow up to 17.3c as the average high with 4.4mm of rain this month which is slightly higher than here. 
 

A nice 78F at 10:58AM on the final Tuesday of April..  Headed for somewhere in the mid / upper 80s later w/ an increase in high clouds edging into local skies thru the afternoon and evening. 


Little warmer tomorrow w/ more clouds around but still pretty reasonable for late April.  

Rest of the week looking ..about the same.. Bump up to the mid / upper 90s possible as we start May, before another system ..that currently looks dry for the valley..   shaves off a few degs again for the start of next week. 

If the system scheduled to pass thru southern AZ tomorrow / Thursday,  or the system forecast after that manages to squeeze out anything wet locally,  it will likely be similar to the random, spit -zy sprinkles that passed through town a couple days ago. 







After a pretty remarkable March that saw wayy more of them than anyone would have thought was possible,  it's pretty remarkable that in April, when you'd expect to start seeing them, we will end the month with NO 100F readings. Yeah, there's two days left in the month but,  ..Ain't gonna touch the century mark on either day.








As May   ...and the final month of Met. Spring...   arrives,  first 5 -8 days could see some deg. of a continuation of April's " up and down " / " subdued heat "  pattern as a few more troughs passing through N. Cal.,  and /or the Great Basin may help keep a lid on a quick resurgence of any big heat here..

While it's just a couple runs,  so far,    some hints are starting to show up in some of the WX Model thinking suggesting that the   .." reasonable " break we've been enjoying after the massive melt down we saw in March,  may be about to flip  ..perhaps as abruptly as it did in March by the time we reach the 10th -12th of next month.. 

Yes, ..while much can < and will likely > change < repeatedly > by that time, just as occurred before March turned sizzling,  when you start seeing hints, you start paying attention   ..Unless you're the kind of human who enjoys always being caught with their shorts down. 

..Anyway..

Scare- cast thought for now, to be tossed in the trash soon?,    ..or ..   ..a hint to eye ball periodically,  to stay ahead of what may lie ahead??  

This morning's 006Z GFS at 378 hours.. 2m temp thoughts..

While mid - 100F readings in May aren't exactly crazy,   after a   ..pretty mild..    April,   abrupt resumption of 105 /105+ heat might catch some folks by surprise / burn some stuff a little. 





500mb anomaly thoughts.. 





12z thoughts from the GFS aren't quite as bullish on building a ridge back over the area  ..keeping some deg of weak troughing lurking around the west, which in turn keeps the heat reasonable here..



That said, both the 12z EC- AIFS and AIFS  ..as well as the 12z runs of both the Ensemble - based GEFS and newly added AIFS -ENS < T- Tidbits > lean in on the idea of building some deg. of ridging / dialing up the heat over AZ and most of the the west after the 10th.. so,    ...We'll see what happens.. 



At the same time?.. Some hints from the GFS over the last few days of the East Pac. off Southern Mexico trying to spin up some sort of disturbance,  right around the start of our Hurricane season ( May 15th ) ..

Depending on which run you look at, it may do nothing, quickly fall apart and head due west,  ..or try to form an actual system and lurk off Mexico for a few days while trying to move north a bit.    Regardless,  any moisture from  ...whatever...  it does,  should it even develop into an actual system at all,    stays well south of AZ over areas of Mexico south of Mazatlan,  and/ or  Puerto Vallarta.. 

A start to    ...what could be a very busy season,  ahead?
 

 

Reasonable 90F at 1:07PM as some " summer-y " moisture moves in from the south / southwest..

Compact, and quick moving upper level low that had potential to bring us some end of  " April showers " now looks to stay too far south to bring us anything ..anything meaningful at least.. as it works it's way east across the AZ / N.M. /Mex. border toward El Paso over the next 12 -18 hours.. 

That said,  late - spring upper level lows are notorious for doing unexpected things sometimes so i'm not completely ruling out ..at least a sprinkle or two sometime this evening / over night.. about as far north as a line following the 202 from Chandler to Gold Canyon. 

" Better " rain and storm chances will stay south and east of Casa Grande and Tucson ..Roughly 20 -35% chances respectively..

Best chances will be confined to areas over far S.E.'rn AZ ..Mainly Cochise Co.  where there is an outside threat for isolated flash flooding issues / daily rainfall records to be broken in a few spots if some of the showers /storms down there generate heavier rainfall. 

While we likely won't see much ..if any.. water falling from the sky up here,   storm activity down south could generate a strong enough north / northwest - moving outflow to generate some dust / 35 /35+ mph wind gusts passing through the area. 



As sunrise arrives on the first day of May,  storm will be headed into central TX.,  and we'll be heating up  ..For the weekend at least.. 



Next upper level system anticipated to pass through the area will arrive by Sunday or Monday, knocking back temps. into the 80s again  ...for a few days at least. 


Still watching for signs of a bigger heat wave arriving  around the 8 -10th,  and the E. Pac. west of southern Mex.. 

More later

Cold. And I just put away the space heater and my flannel Jammies and shut off the gas to the Carbon Monoxide Machine in the grow room. It's in the low 50s and supposed to get in the 40s the next couple nights. And I'm pretty sure we're out of drought status by now. As I write this we've had 5" of rain this week and it's supposed to stay raining all weekend. ⁹

8 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Cold. And I just put away the space heater and my flannel Jammies and shut off the gas to the Carbon Monoxide Machine in the grow room. It's in the low 50s and supposed to get in the 40s the next couple nights. And I'm pretty sure we're out of drought status by now. As I write this we've had 5" of rain this week and it's supposed to stay raining all weekend. ⁹

We got our one to 2" of rain up here. Nice change. Looks like rains will remain across the I10 corridor for a few days.

Breezy 83F at 9:19AM, headed for the mid -90s later as another batch of high clouds rolling in off the E. Pac. builds into the area thru the day..

Lil toasty,  yet a lil cloudy tomorrow before the next passing system shaves off about 10 -12 deg for the start of next week. ..77 -82F, w/ maybe some clouds around on Cinco De Mayo?   yeah, we'll all take that  

 ..Enjoy it cuz the return of our " typical " May sizzle?  appears to return by next weekend..



Tucson / S. AZ stats aren't out yet but, ..how April stacked up for PHX, Yuma, and El Centro..



Interesting that we continued the above norm streak for the spring season < ..year itself really... > , despite escaping April w/ no 100F readings this year.

Some interesting stats from CA last month as well... 





..And yes,   Last, bigger severe storm set up out there did produce a rare " CA. 'Nader "..First in a couple years. 

Another set up for storms arrives across N.Cal today / tomorrow.. 



Overall April Thunderstorm activity across a lot of CA  was also elevated compared to what is typical.  Influence from the on-going Marine heatwave probably had it's fingers all over this pattern this year. 

W/ El Nino signal SSTs just about ready to explode -at the surface- just off Ecuador,  and the Subtrop / 4 corners ridge to start building in shortly,  anticipate seeing a big jump SSTs off CA by mid June, if not sooner. 





Looking further out?  Taken - with - salt CFS thoughts on how May could look.. 




Not too concerned about any suggested precip anoms here since this is the driest period of the year and it would only take approx.  +0.10" to qualify as " wet " locally..

In fact, the storm that passed thru the far southern 3rd of the state yesterday could account for the " above norm " lean in May's forecast     ....or could something else tip the scales in that direction,   later??

Regardless, some impressive #s for the end of April down in the borderlands from this system..






Bigger thing to eyeball this month is the above / below precip. trend in Mexico ...which,  for now,  is looking to only get wetter as we move deeper into the month.  Tropics may play a significant part in that as well.




As mentioned before, more confirmation that the E. Pac. may be about to awaken, maybe as soon as this time next week.. 

If not then, then right around when the season officially kicks off.. 

Increasing chatter that this could be a big year out here as well. 



We'll see if we end up with a named system before the average occurrence date, which is in early June. 




Since it is May,  Fire Weather concerns can't be ignored ..both locally and regionally..  While there have been a few fires already,  season seems to be getting off to a slower start than i'd had expected considering the factors influencing things this year.

Perhaps that changes once the heat starts building back in after next weekend??

Regardless, will be interesting to see how things play out here this month / into the start of June..  Note the mention regarding thoughts on this year's Monsoon could look.

I'd replace " Robust " ..with " Frisky  ..and Flood -y  " 




May, June, July, Aug. maps..




Full PDF discussion:
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf






Lastly,   ..for now..     ** Added dashes of salt please..     ....CFS thoughts'  peak at how June could kick off..   

Temps:




Precip:




Increasingly wet signal tilt in Mexico,  Wet signal presence across New Mexico < ..Where the Monsoon usually starts to set up,  first >  =  Liking what i'm seeing        ..Fingers crossed 

I'm so gutted I actually came here to vent. It's May and it should be lovely but apparently we're having the coldest May of the last 70 years and rn temperature outside is 38 F! Forecast had predicted 47F and stupidly i believed it.

My Kigelia has just produced some new leaves after winter dormancy and I'm afraid they will be ruined. Same with my hibiscus schizopetalus. Also yesterday I planted 100 vetiver plants in the ground and I'm now worried I lost my money... 

Worse still tonight is expected to be even colder! I can't believe I'll have to use fleece again in May 🤬

4 hours ago, Than said:

I'm so gutted I actually came here to vent. It's May and it should be lovely but apparently we're having the coldest May of the last 70 years and rn temperature outside is 38 F! Forecast had predicted 47F and stupidly i believed it.

My Kigelia has just produced some new leaves after winter dormancy and I'm afraid they will be ruined. Same with my hibiscus schizopetalus. Also yesterday I planted 100 vetiver plants in the ground and I'm now worried I lost my money... 

Worse still tonight is expected to be even colder! I can't believe I'll have to use fleece again in May 🤬

Oh, dear Than 🤗, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the weather changes soon and returns to normal seasonal temperatures. Which weather station near you gives a good idea of what the weather's like where you are? I'd be really interested to know—and how are you doing otherwise ?

3 hours ago, Mazat said:

Oh, dear Than 🤗, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the weather changes soon and returns to normal seasonal temperatures. Which weather station near you gives a good idea of what the weather's like where you are? I'd be really interested to know—and how are you doing otherwise ?

It's Kalamata airport (not the city). I am expecting another 3 C tonight but this time I will bring vetiver and all seedlings indoors and I will cover my Roystonea and hibiscus.. I was out on a ladder at 7am this morning trying to throw a double sheet over my sausage tree but it was too tall and I failed. I must've been a ridiculous spectacle.

All good here but loads of manual work.. new house needs so many amendments; today I planted another 50 vetiver on the slope to stop the landslides in the winter.. next I need to remove a fitted wardrobe from the wall, then install a solar water heater... it just never stops. How are you? How are your plants? 

Break in the clouds = great morning in the 70s jumping into the lowers 90s at 1:18PM..  Should hit the upper 90s before the next batch of high clouds rolls in sometime around Sunset. 

Chop 10 -15deg off tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies  ..which might squeeze out a sprinkle or two sometime tomorrow evening around the valley.

Take it down a few more degs under partly cloudy to mainly sunny skies on Tuesday / Cinco De Mayo.. 

 Enjoy it cuz it may be the last sub -80 /85F day we'll see until -at least- a rain cooled day during Monsoon Season ..if not later on..


..Now up to 105 - 106F by this time next week   ..Perhaps eclipsing 106F  by Tuesday of the following week. 



Eye - balling some " interesting things " trying to sneak into the forecast via the last 5 or 6 runs of various WX models around the same time as well..    ....And no, that's not including any on going " tropically -themed "  hints the models continue toying with atm. 


FYI :  for us locals ( Western / Southwestern U.S. peeps )  Dan will be live tomorrow at 2PM, PST for his take on the upcoming return of the heat  ..and other stuff..

941mb Hurricane formation off Mexico,  around the 20th??


Reality :  Ahhh yes,   ...I see we're starting the  " Fantasy Canes "  Dumpster runs  early this year??..


Make believe reality reasoning attempt: =  = but, but, who thought it would be 100+ ..for days..  in March.. 




< Squints and crosses his fingers while whispering >   ..I wish it were true,   i wish it were true..  😂 🙃



78F, breezy,  and cloudy at 11:19PM..   

Chance of seeing " slightly more than occasional spit " increased   ..by a couple hairs..  for the valley for tomorrow evening.  

Min of 54.5f/12.5c with a high of 62.6/17c with 67% humidity. Thankfully that extremely dry air 10%s 20%s rh has gone for now.  Had a small amount of rain the other day which brings the total so far to 1mm.  We had a few days in the 70s now back to the 60s, 1st was 78f/25.5c. I put a few archontophoenix seedlings, likely myolensis x tuckeri but could be anything into the pond waterfall toady. I was beyond impressed with how well they tolerate water, including cold water. Some were in pots with no drainage holes and sat in standing cold water all winter with 0 root rot only some minor frost burn. And put out decent growth throughout April.

On 5/3/2026 at 3:17 PM, Than said:

It's Kalamata airport (not the city). I am expecting another 3 C tonight but this time I will bring vetiver and all seedlings indoors and I will cover my Roystonea and hibiscus.. I was out on a ladder at 7am this morning trying to throw a double sheet over my sausage tree but it was too tall and I failed. I must've been a ridiculous spectacle.

All good here but loads of manual work.. new house needs so many amendments; today I planted another 50 vetiver on the slope to stop the landslides in the winter.. next I need to remove a fitted wardrobe from the wall, then install a solar water heater... it just never stops. How are you? How are your plants? 

I took a look at the data. Thanks so much for the info, Than. You're in a tough spot, too, really. Yeah, I'd play it safe as well.

Yeah, it's really dangerous on a slope. And something really stupid actually happened to me—I got distracted on Monday evening and wanted to fill in some more soil. In any case, my phone probably fell into the mound of dirt and I couldn’t find it anymore. Besides, you shouldn’t be doing things like that late at night. We searched and dug, but nothing happened. Then I wanted to get a new one—or rather, the same model—which was all set to be reserved nearby. But when I stopped by on Tuesday, they didn’t have it; they said there had been a mistake and that particular model was sold out. Then on Wednesday I headed toward Konstanz, and they had it at the discount store there. I bought it, but I still needed a SIM card, so I ordered one, and it’ll be in the mail tomorrow. To top it all off, Sabine was on duty the whole time and she needs her own cell phone, so I’m only getting around to this today—it’s a disaster. I had to postpone two appointments because of this nonsense... somehow it’s really strange—we searched everywhere and found nothing, as if it had just vanished. In the end, we had to laugh anyway—me at my lack of focus and Sabine at me.

PS:Sorry for the late reply. The plants are doing well here so far; thanks to the extreme conditions, they’ve grown a lot. I’ll take some pictures once everything is set up again—hopefully tomorrow.

 

 

 

Slightly toasty 93F at 4:48PM under ..essentially.. clear skies..   Essentially = a cloud or two and maybe some smoke from a new fire up north ( Wind direction currently appears to be directing smoke south toward this side of the valley )

Further south? compact, cutoff, upper level low spins across parts of N. Sonora and the borderlands across S. AZ.  Someone, somewhere down there might see a sprinkle,  ..maybe catch some flashes flashing just above the southern horizon before this system heads toward the plains tomorrow..





Other than that? 

One " nice " evening <  for those who love their morning lows in the 60s  >   ..before it's   ...essentially  ..nuthin' but 100s and 70s   from tomorrow,  until.....



Throw in some clouds ..per the current forecast suggestions.. at times and..  What you see,  is what you get  ..for now.    Pretty standard stuff for May here really.. 




NMME May update is out and   ..While a slam dunk is never a guarantee,  the closer we get to the start of Monsoon season ..Currently just a little over a month away..     the more all the WX model suggestions pointing toward a wet summer / start to fall ahead  become tougher to ignore. 


Lead 1:




Today's thoughts from the CFSv2  for June:






...We'll see how this looks next week..




Lead 2: July





Lead 3: Aug.





Lead 4: Sept.






Lead 5: Oct.





Pretty solid wet lean in a majority of the individual NMME / IMME models,  all the way thru October across this side of the world   right now..  

...We'll see how thoughts from both the Copernicus long range models,  and CPC monthly update look like soon..

Regardless, Mexico continues to look good  ..If the current forecasts are correct, activity should pick up a bit after a recent lull across the southern and eastern half of the country as the subtropical / 4 corners High starts setting up down there over the next 3 weeks.. We'll see. 





Also,  just a week left to go before the start of Hurricane season  ..on the best coast.. 


 No solid  hints of an early riser on the models atm but,  we'll see what happens..  Closer we get to June,  and SSTs between southern Mex. and N. Baja already off to a warmer than normal start,  it is inevitable something gets stirred up down there, soon. 

This year's names.. 





Could we use  ..all of them...  this year???   Next year? ..maybe we'll find Waldo,  LOL..

98F ..and climbing.. at 1:25PM as we head into a hot Mom's Day weekend ahead..

Since the 109F forecast for that time is still on the board, We'll see whether or not we crack 110F by Monday.

As expected, heat products are already hoisted..   Stay hydrated, and  OFF  THE TRAILS  during peak heat hours..





Since it gives us a glimpse into the start of June, today's 3 -4  week maps n' precip -relatd thoughts on how things might look around and right after Memorial Day.. 







Will change ofcourse,  and taken with the usual, healthy dose of " we'll see "  but   ..like what i'm seeing,  even this far out..  Isn't the only forecast thoughts hinting at increased moisture potential for the Southwest around that time / as we head into June either. 

We'll also see if anything tropical that could develop after mid month plays a part in boosting any moisture surge that reaches AZ / western N.M at that time.. 

For now,  Stay cool out there..    Save Energy, and play in the dark   ..or at least after the sun sets..  

I will keep this brief... 23C / 74F max here today. ☀️

El Nino typically produces cool/wet summers in the UK (unlike La Nina and ENSO neutral), but I strongly suspect the extent of the Csb (warm-summer Med) forcing in southern England will completely override that signal nowadays.

Previous moderate-strong El Nino transitions in spring-summer (1997 and 2015 come to mind) are the main analogs. Both cool, wet, cloudy summers, however the proper Csb transition has kicked in since then (circa 2017 so to speak). So I fully suspect it to override that typical pattern and we have yet another warm, dry summer. That would be quite telling if it does override the analogs, as I expect. And prove the switch to warm-summer Med in southern/eastern England.

So all eyes on rainfall patterns this year, given the setup should favour the wettest possible outlook for us here.

Although even right now it is very dry here, 1mm of rain over the past 6 weeks lol.

17 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I will keep this brief... 23C / 74F max here today. ☀️

El Nino typically produces cool/wet summers in the UK (unlike La Nina and ENSO neutral), but I strongly suspect the extent of the Csb (warm-summer Med) forcing in southern England will completely override that signal nowadays.

Previous moderate-strong El Nino transitions in spring-summer (1997 and 2015 come to mind) are the main analogs. Both cool, wet, cloudy summers, however the proper Csb transition has kicked in since then (circa 2017 so to speak). So I fully suspect it to override that typical pattern and we have yet another warm, dry summer. That would be quite telling if it does override the analogs, as I expect. And prove the switch to warm-summer Med in southern/eastern England.

So all eyes on rainfall patterns this year, given the setup should favour the wettest possible outlook for us here.

Although even right now it is very dry here, 1mm of rain over the past 6 weeks lol.

Light rain and drizzle predicted here in the short term. Will be interesting to see how your theory pans out over the summer.

A toasty, 104 -107F currently < 1:44PM >  out there under wall to wall sun.  We'll see what we max out at in an hour or so. 

While tomorrow's currently suggested high backed off a deg to 108F,  have a suspicion we'll notch 110, if not 111F if the " actual high seen exceeding the forecast high " trend keeps up..

If that is achieved at Sky Harbor, it will tie ..or break.. a long standing record for the date. 

Thankfully, still looks like temps will back down to the hot ..but more reasonable.. 98 -101 range mid -week, before wavering in that range as we reach / head past mid - month.  




..Other than that..  Standard mid -May forecast look across state 48..

 While Hurricane Season will get underway,  ...officially...  next Friday,  models still aren't seeing anything developing just yet.. A tropical wave may enter the Pacific off Costa Rica around the 20th but  ..depending on the model run.. development beyond that may struggle. 

Plenty warm down there, just need to get the atmosphere cranking. 



Additionally,  after Friday,  clock will be counting down the remaining 30 days until the " NOAA start " to Monsoon Season 2026..   

As most are aware, while the NOAA set up a set  start date,  season doesn't actually start until we see 3 days ..in a row.. of Dew Point readings reach or exceed 55deg.  ..The " Native Arizonian " means of ushering in the season.. 

How soon that occurs? ..we'll see.  ..Has been a lot of chatter over the past few days about how we could trade " dry "  heat  for wet / humid heat as we kick off the season, ..and progress thru it..   Hopefully that arrives sooner than later this year. 

May thoughts from the Copernicus seasonal / long range model suites are out and .. for the most part,   all individual models used to compile the C3S multi -model ensemble continue their lean into the potential for a reasonably wet summer ahead, esp as we reach Sept..  

A few toss around the potential for some dryness in say August,  but the potential for a hard lean in that direction still looks pretty low at this point..  

Still, ..something to watch.. We'll see what June's update looks like. 

CPC's seasonal thoughts will be released late this month  ..on the 21st,    ...so, we'll see what they look like then. 

CFS Monthly thoughts? ..still hanging tough with the same " solidly wet " look they've has since ..January.. 

..A pretty good sign,  but one we need to see continue,  right up until the season begins. 



For now,  lets complete the trek thru the rest of May   ..and Spring, 2026..   and see where we end up when we reach the finish line. 

 

A toasty Monday underway in the low desert..  107 when i took the screen shot a few mins. ago, now up to 109 ( at 1:45PM ).. We'll see if we notch ..or eek past..  the 110F mark. 

Regardless,  depending on your neighborhood, it might be in the mid -100s, or already topping 110 / 110+  right now.





Always a bit surprised by this part of Chandler / Sun Lakes part of town..  Infested with neighborhood Golf Courses yet, as you can see, some of the hotter readings on the hotter days occur down there..  ..Not that it is exactly cool outside those areas..




Anyhow...










Luckily, this looks like the hottest day of this particular warm up as temps start the forecasted downward slide to a more " normal May heat " level  tomorrow.. 




Further abroad? 

Nice, late spring surge / flirty tease of monsoon -esque moisture  driving some storm development over the Sierra Madre Occidental on the Satellite loop today..  With just a little of that moisture trickling into the mountains down around the borderlands.   ...where they always get the fun stuff,  first, lol.



Closer inspection reveals maybe a brief, dry storm or two could be trying to form over the Santa Rita, Huachuca, and maybe the Chiricauhua mountains.. with a few weak build ups trying to bubble up as far north as the Sups <  local nick name for the Superstition Mtns > just east of the valley..  

If we're lucky,  maybe a little of that southern moisture arrives overhead ..in the form of  scattered, " here and there " clouds...  by sunset.. 

Could see a slight uptick in buildups / storm or two more down across the borderlands tomorrow,  otherwise,  ..hot n' sunny locally ..though it should be a few degs cooler than today,   ..w/ maybe a few more clouds around to make the sky a bit more interesting.. 


Gotta share / spread the fun stuff around a bit, ya know..

23 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

We'll see if we notch ..or eek past..  the 110F mark. 

2:32PM:  Nailed iittt..

 

Currently 111F here in the east valley. Recorded a high of 114F and low of 72F. Definitely toasty but lows are still about 10F below what you typically see in the middle of the summer here. 

Absolute joke here at the moment. After such a mild winter and a warm March and April, I am now dealing with my coldest nights since January. Down to 1C / 34F in my garden last night and I am expecting at least -1C / 30F tonight. It would be even colder at my allotment out in the open where I have a lot of stuff.

I have NEVER seen nights as cold as this in May. And it's mid-May now. Even my tomato plants inside my polytunnel at the allotment got absolutely smoked last night. And tonight it is time for round 2. My allotment is right out in the open and exposed and being out in the country there is obviously no UHI. So if I have -1C / 30F here, it will be -2C / 28F there at least.

This spring has absolutely set me up hook line and sinker. I could deal with these cold nights in early or mid spring, since I don't have stuff planted out. But now it has come in late spring after I planted out most of my stuff. Unbelievable. I have spent like 6 hours trying to protect everything tonight, but there will still be many losses.

Absolute disaster end to spring for me here. Worst I have ever had since I started gardening in general. I am probably going to lose 50 tomato plants, 30 pepper plants, all my beans, all of my potatoes, maybe my corn, the grape vines will be toast etc. I think I would rather of had a cold winter and not had to deal with this, than have a mild winter and spring, up to now, then have this crap... 🙄

@UK_Palms Last night was definitely unprecedented cold for the south east for May in recent year's. Here it got down to 42f/5.5c. Canopy can definitely do wonders however. At the end of the garden under a good amount of layered canopy it only dropped to 7c. The temperature quickly rose under the clear skies this morning, so that could possibly be a saving grace for some of your tomato plants in the poly tunnel? Probably many major crop losses for vineyards too.

Toasty, but i'll take 107F right now, vs  a few degs warmer at the same time yesterday..   We'll see if the increased cloud cover that may filter into town from the south / southeast over the next few hours might effect how many more degrees we add to todays' high / how quickly they start dropping as we get closer to Sunset..

As mentioned yesterday, weak disturbance wandering our way from Baja has drawn a decent fetch of moisture further north into the state today..   ..In the form of increased build up activity in those areas at least.. 

C.O.D. Sub - Regional True Color Sat. View; 


No lightning detected in any of the mountain puffs atm, but, there could be a few brief,  isolated storms here and there up there later on this afternoon.  Bigger storms < though still small and scattered,  compared to what we'll see blow up down there soon enough > are confined to the spine of the Sierra Madre Occidental, just south of us. 


May be a few sprinkles and gusty breezes wandering around Tucson atm, via the current view of the Rincons from A Mountain.. 

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wximagery/movies/rincon_last_90_minutes.mp4

FYI, for those interested:  90min,  and " Whole Day " timelapse video are accessible of both the Catalinas and Rincons, via the UA WRF page, " Sky Camera "  tab / section.  Need to inquire / make a suggestion about them adding a camera that faces south, into the Santa Ritas / Mt. Wrightson and Madera Canyon, and Mt. Hopkins..  anyway..  Fun stuff,  again,  confined to our south..  for now, ha ha. 


..Some of that may make it up here later   ..but don't expect anything from it    ..except perhaps some breeziness at times if a blob of virga - generating clouds passes overhead. 

More clouds head our way overnight and through at least the first half of tomorrow  ..which should help keep temps right around 100F. 

5 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

@UK_Palms Last night was definitely unprecedented cold for the south east for May in recent year's. Here it got down to 42f/5.5c. Canopy can definitely do wonders however. At the end of the garden under a good amount of layered canopy it only dropped to 7c. The temperature quickly rose under the clear skies this morning, so that could possibly be a saving grace for some of your tomato plants in the poly tunnel? Probably many major crop losses for vineyards too.

 

Nah the tomatoes in my polytunnel are absolutely nuked. Like they are kaput. And everything I had planted out in the open, next to the polytunnel, is also completely wiped out. But strangely all the smaller pepper plants seem to have survived fine, almost undamaged.

My allotment is basically situated right in the middle of a large field, right out in the rural countryside. There would have been at least two consecutive nights of -1C / 30F there in that exposed location. And I wouldn't be surprised if last night went down to -2C / 28F out there in the open. I had -1.5C here at the house, which is basically record breaking.

That first cold night, I didn't even protect any of my garden tomato plants or anything and they were completely fine. Yet all the tomato plants in my polytunnel at the allotment got burnt to a crisp, just 500 yards away from my garden. The shock of it catching me out led me to protect all my house garden tomato plants for that 2nd night, just in case.

Anyway last night was the coldest May night in 16 years here, since 2010. So we are talking a 1 in 15-20 year type event at least. And it may have been the coldest mid-May night in 70-80 years potentially around here. My grape vines are wrecked.

18z GFS  " End of May Monster 597mb Ridge buildup / set up "  ... One n' done, Dumpster run,   or hint?? 






Clouds slowly creeping into town from the S.E.   Some dust rolling thru Tucson noted on the UA Cams earlier so,  ..don't be surprised if some haze on a gusty breeze enters the valley over the next few hours. 

Man it's going to be pretty hot next week!

Sunny 96F and not too shabby out ( 4:52PM ) on a Friday in mid - May..

Forecast as we head for the end of the month?    ..Title  says it all.. 




Touch warmer tomorrow, down again by Sunday.. 

Upper 80s to the lower 90s,  w/ some clouds around at times  = Pretty nice for the start of next week   ...with only a modest warm up suggested  ..for now at least...  by Memorial Day Weekend,  next week..



Could be hotter atm  ..so no whinin'   




Interestingly,   while not at " Monsoon Season Levels, "   Dew Points may crack the 40deg.  mark at times next week..


D.P.'s in the lower 40s may be dry to someone from a place where they're always above 45 -50deg,   but,  Dew Point readings in the upper 30s / low 40s,  here?   ...far better than the sub - 20  ..or down near / at zero..   D.P.  readings we can see here this time of year.. 

That slight uptick in moisture may be a result from a suggested <  ..by some of the current WX model runs > increase in moisture across parts of New Mexico / W. TX, maybe far S.E AZ  sneaking into our back yard < Eastern and S. Eastern AZ ) at times,  esp. as we get closer to when we celebrate Memorial Day this year,  on the 25th ..  We'll see.. 


Latest 3 week thoughts from the CPC? ..backed off introducing moisture into AZ a little, for the moment,  ..but it won't be far away, either. 






Discussion this week seems to mirror my thoughts regarding when we might see some movement in the Pacific.. 




If that happens ..or development of the first system holds out touch longer..  No worries,   ..we'll get there.

 

90 and nice out  ..Headed for somewhere in the 93 -95F range by mid afternoon.

Touch warmer by Memorial Day Weekend,  but,  ..we'll take the 90s / 1 or two days right around 100,  over 105+ sizzle to usher in the un- official kick off to Summer 2026. Temps back down again to the lower 90s next week as a dry trough passing to our north keeps fore -summer heat in check,  ..for now. 



If what some of the forecast models / current NWS discussion have been flirting with over the last few days pans out,  perhaps the first, decent hint of what lies ahead, later,  sneaks into the mountains / S. AZ on  -at least-  Monday.. 




While some buildups and scattered clouds floating around the valley later Monday afternoon is the most likely outcome this time around, If the more bullish thoughts on this scenario come to pass, majority of any thunderstorm activity that manages to fire off up there will be dry - based   ..IE: dropping very little rain,   ...which will raise fire concerns. 

While we definitely don't want to see our fire season get a boost,  increasingly frequent rounds of dry / high - based shower / thunderstorm activity are exactly what you want to see starting to occur in the mountains to our east, northeast, and south as we reach the end of May and head into the start of June   ..If we want a monsoon season at least.. 

New Mexico will also see some of this activity as well,  though more storms that occur on their side of the mountains could offer up wetting rain, though nothing heavy enough to negate fire ignition concerns. 



Headed up to the Rim / White Mtns this weekend?   Keep an eye on the weather,  follow all fire - related restrictions that are in place at the moment, stay hydrated,  and immediately report any smoke seen,   ..while enjoying an afternoon / evening shower ..if you see any.   Maybe suggest that those showers visit the valley sometime soon, too

 

92F and not bad out after reaching the mid 90s earlier.. Up tomorrow. We'll see if we crack 100F sometime this weekend, ..or escape the last 10 days of the month without seeing another 100F reading..

Still keeping an eye on Monday afternoon for the continuing potential for some dry, mountain storms. ..Might not be the only threat for seeing that kind of activity building up there before the start of June either..

Speaking of which..

CPC seasonal outlooks are out today and ...looking good as we inch closer to the start of Monsoon Season, but, we'll see how June's thoughts look.











This month's thoughts do shift the higher " above normal rainfall lean potential " a bit further north into the 4 - corners, esp. earlier in the season though.. Regardless, looking respectably wet state and region - wide




Drought Forecast for the summer is out as well and adds weight to the " encouraging " thoughts from ...pretty much everywhere else... regarding seeing a wet summer..

87F right now around sunset in the east valley with a high of 102F and low of 62F.

The mornings are still a little "chilly" for here but this is the time of the year when below average temps are always welcome.

First day of the late spring heatwave here today.

Maximum of 29.1C / 84F for me today. Some places nudging 30C this afternoon.

Things will only get hotter. Potentially 34-35C by Monday as modelled. My area shown below…

Min of 68f/20c high a high of 86.2f/30.1c with 36% humidity. Uv was an 8.5. Tonight’s expected to be warmer.

Mid 80s around town at 10:02AM as we wait to see whether or not we'll crack the 100F mark later ...and....


While the " major " forecasts for the day hang on a ..typical, hot n sunny Sunday in late May kind of day, today might not follow that script ..to a T..

Unusual pattern set up that looks to bring scattered to widely scattered dry storms to the mountains tomorrow might just give parts of the valley an early taste of things to come later..

Morning forecast discussion lays out what may occur ..as well as what the high country may see both later this evening and tomorrow..




While the GFS has stayed fairly restrictive in it's thoughts regarding -any- sort of precip. reaching the valley over the last few days, HRRR model runs have stayed a bit more bullish on the idea of ..enough of a shower chance to wet the ground, passing thru areas of town from -at least- downtown PHX eastward... and the potential for some dust getting kicked up / moving into town as these same showers ..or weak / dying storms??.. move north from Tucson this afternoon..

Current thoughts from the latest run of the HRRR: Storms ..mainly high -based, form over Tucson, head to / through the valley..

*** While the implied radar echoes look strong on screen, dry atmosphere this time of year = echo intensity is likely over done.. At the surface? darkest colors will likely = enough rain reaching the ground to briefly wet the sidewalks.. ***











Suggested Lightning flash density potential for the next 30 -40 hours: ..This is why everyone will be watching the High Country closely over the next few days..

Note the little blips that appear both near PHX and Tucson. That = today's potential activity ..should it occur.





As mentioned earlier, best chances for a decent end of May shower? land next door in N.M. tomorrow ..Per the continuing thoughts from the HRRR..






After this system moves out, another slides down the N. Cal coast, then gets stuck over the Great Basin for a few days.

While it will cut down temps for a few days, it will also raise winds, even down in the valley.. Which could spell trouble if any fires are ignited up in the mountains later today, tonight, and / or tomorrow..

As June and the start of meteorological Summer arrives next weekend, temps may tick upwards.. Some hints at more mountain shower / iso. storm potential just beyond the 10 day in some of the model runs as well..

Tis' the season..



.....More later, if we see anything....

It has been absolutely bloody baking hot here today. Low 90’s F. Tarmac on the roads was melting around here today.

Worse to come. Mid-90’s F tomorrow and Tuesday…

Min of 63f/17.2c with a high of 32.5c/90.5f with 21% humidity. Tomorrow’s high is forecasted to be 95f/35c. Currently 70f at 3am. The next two days are both expected to break the record high for May likely a 99.9% chance.

Ask ..and ye' shall receive ..Sometimes at least, lol.

As had been repeatedly suggested by the HRRR, Thunderstorms that developed between Tucson and Nogales this afternoon had just enough umph to make the trek up the I -10 and into the valley by around 9PM ...Particularly right over the house here in Chandler, and due north, straddling the 101, through Tempe and Scottsdale.

While the "Thunderstorm" end of what passed thru was restricted to a few flashes/ bolt or two north of here, a little over an hours worth of decent rain is something you rarely see occur this time of year..

Was enough to result in about 40 minutes of runoff off the house, and in the street.. I'd actually turned on the sprinklers out front thinking most of the activity was going to shift to our east, just before it started raining.

Will be interesting to see if any of the gauges nearby caught any of it ( Only a couple in our part of Chandler )

Clearing out atm. ..but overnight, isolated shower chances may not be done with the valley as some moisture continues streaming north from the borderlands and the best lift with this upper level system approaches the area..

Shower and storm chances ramp up through the night up in the mountains and through the day tomorrow before shifting east into New Mexico by tomorrow evening.

Dropped to the mid 70s during the peak of the storm, but now back to the lower 80s ..and pretty humid.. = perfect out.

Fleeting as it was, hopefully, this is just a taste of what lies ahead..

88F with some lingering humidity and a cloud or two at 10:13AM..

Rest of Memorial Day 2026 looks dry and seasonally toasty here in the valley, with showers / storms for the mountains, esp. earlier on in the day.

As you can see on the current Sat view, bulk of storms associated w/ this system are marching into New Mexico.. Enjoy it out there..



Some rainfall totals from both the Maricopa FCD, and Rain Log ( ... .org ) Can see that while most of the valley missed out, corridor that got rain last night did ok ..For May..

Hard to see on the map, but, highest totals logged by MCFCD were .16" in the Tempe area.





0.01 /0.01+" of rain during the driest part of the year?? ..we'll take it.

Interesting that the closest gauge to the house didn't record anything, but, goes to show you just how isolated these events can be when they occur here. Going with my gut, i'd say somewhere between .05 -.10" was what fell over the house.


Better numbers across parts of Tucson, and the Borderlands..







Final week of the month ...and Spring 2026? ..looks pretty reasonable.. Cooling off a bit mid / late week, some breezes as the next cut off low hangs over the great basin for a few days, then warming a bit as we reach the start of June as influence from that system heads east.

As mentioned yesterday, another hint of " Taste of the Monsoon " -esque moisture sneaking into AZ again in some of the model runs right around ...or shortly after... the start of June.. We'll see what happens.

Also seeing wavering hints suggesting our typical, pre- monsoon season nuke fest may not be too far off as well, and possibly our first tropical ..something.. stirring up off Mexico around the same time.. ..Is June. Time to get the ball rolling.

For now, enjoy a pretty good, final week of Spring.