What is your current yard temperature?

[PAPalmtrees]

Right now it's 72 degrees I'm so glad we're done with winter. Next week is going to be even nicer

[DTS]

Seems like spring is coming early this year!

[Silas_Sancona]

81F at 10:26AM ..headed for somewhere in the low / lower mid -90s later ..Warmer if high clouds don't interrupt peak insolation. 

Thanks to said clouds rolling in during the mid afternoon, each day,  PHX only managed to match the monthly record high of 92F over the final few days of February.  This month, the high will have to reach / surpass 100F to top the monthly record.  Would be wild if we managed to flirt w/ that today but, ..We'll see. Wild enough that we'll be in the ballpark right out of the gate though. 

That said, the first 100F readings of 2026 did pop up in various neighborhoods around the valley on Friday. Lets see if we see any more today. 

If not, we might not have to wait long to take another shot.  More on that later....

Weren't the only century mark readings noted across the region either.  While i'd thought this round of heat might be confined mainly to the deserts,  turns out a good chunk of S.Cal,   west of the deserts,    was experiencing similar conditions,  w/ several spots reaching 100F in / near Los Angeles on Fri.  Even on the neighborhood level, while reaching 100F, at the end of Feb. is pretty impressive here, it is more impressive, imo, to see 100F readings popping up west of the deserts in S. Cal at the same time. 



As for FEB  ..and " Winter " 25 -26?...   ...stats speak for themselves.  Pretty impressive numbers, esp. how much we topped the previous " warm winter " numbers.   We'll see how long it is until this year is challenged. 











Tucson's monthly / seasonal stats wrap up hasn't been posted yet..



Looking into the first week of the month ahead??   While most folks would be hard pressed calling upper 70s to the mid 80s a " cool down ",  looking like temps pull back  ..a little..  after another likely 90 /90+ tomorrow.  How much temps back off later will depend on what the overall pattern across the west decides to do as we move thru next week.. 



Model thoughts,  esp those from the GFS,   have been all over the place the last few days..  Some runs suggesting a bigger cooldown ..with maybe a storm or two bringing some deg. of precip. chances back to the area     ..others offering up a " cool "  break between early season heat waves with the next, potentially significant ( regionally ) heat wave arriving somewhere near the 15th - 17th.   As always,  devil is in the details so we'll have to watch what happens. 



Looking over the last several years,  March itself can offer up a bit of everything...  ...extended stretches of days in the upper 90s / reaching 100,  or a few final mornings in the upper 30s..  Wouldn't be shocked to see us reach 100F before the end of the month, nor would a morning barely touching 39 be a surprise either. 

For reference, since 2017,  sub -  40F lows in March have only been recorded 3 times here with 37F being the lowest,  Recorded in 2019..

*****  FYI: for the extra -early risers,  the last Lunar Eclipse visible in the U.S.  ..until ~approx. 2029 of so,  will occur early Tuesday morning..  Should be much nicer viewing weather this time around compared to the raw / chilly conditions during the last March event a couple years ago. 


Start of the month SST check from SOTO..  ** Of note:  the overall SOTO website will be retired / absorbed into NASA's broader EARTHDATA website starting this month** 





No matter where you look,  pretty warm across the N. Pac. atm,  esp off Cen. / S. Cal,  Baja / West coast of MEX.

Generally speaking,  With the sun angle increasing rapidly as we head through the month, SST averages only start heading upward across the basin from here forward so..

  ....+ 2-3+C  anomalies off CA atm? = Pretty impressive way to start off the season this year.   This is how you bring Tropical game Fish into near shore waters off S. Cal.  


No matter how you look at it, Winter 25 -26 is in the bag.  We'll see what surprises await us as we head into / through  Spring 2026..

[80s Kid]

Current temp is 91F in the east valley with a high of 94F and low of 56F. 

According to the last post it appears that this is officially the warmest winter in record for Phoenix, AZ which probably isn't surprising to anyone who lives in the area. Absolutely beautiful weather here (some people think it's too hot but I moved here for the heat so I'm enjoying it). 

[Silas_Sancona]

86F might be on the hotter end of warm, but,  w/ a light breeze stirring at times, it's a pretty nice day out.  Temp outside in the Pre - sunrise hour catching the Eclipse was perfect..  

Looking at the rest of the week? ..mid 80s tomorrow, pulling back to the lower 80s / 70s Thur. and Fri. before another bump up, then a slight dip as some troughiness skates it's way through the region by the start of next week. 

Same general troughiness could result in a cutoff low pinching off the overall west to east flow north of us  that ends up drifting south or southwesterly to a point somewhere near the CA / Baja Norrte border by Sunday or Monday,  possibly opening the door for the return of some slight shower chances   ..if the COL can pull up moisture from the Gulf and adjacent Pacific nearby..  

Regardless,  ..if it manages to bring any,  more than likely,  precip seen would err on the lighter side and   ..since the system would be warm and completely cut off from colder air further north,   would likely only bring snow to the highest peaks in AZ, if not elsewhere as well,   if at all. 


After it exits ..we'll see what happens.. While there seems to be a general consensus solidifying among overall thoughts on what comes next,  there is still some deg of flip n' flop present in day to day, individual model runs so..



That said,  it seems the more reliable, longer -term - looking models are sending louder hints that the next big warm up may arrive soon, after another quick cool down   ...if  " mid 70s " could be considered  " cool ". 




*** Consume w/ a few Grains of Salt alert *** of course  but,  next uptick in temps is showing up in today's 10 and 14 day outlooks.. 









Took a couple days but, stats are in for how winter   ..and the final month of it..   looked down in Tucson.  As impressive of a winter as it was up here,   i'm much more impressed by these stats. 


Simplified Soc. Media summary:






Detailed,   for those keeping score ..or just curious / wanting to learn some things.. :









How March is starting off up here..  How will this month end????




....Now Imagine if this were the start of July..  😬


 

[Silas_Sancona]

On 3/3/2026 at 2:08 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

That said,  it seems the more reliable, longer -term - looking models are sending louder hints that the next big warm up may arrive soon, after another quick cool down   ...if  " mid 70s " could be considered  " cool ". 
 

A surprisingly  pleasant 85F at 5:32PM..  Immediate forecast, thru the start of next week at least, looks locked in..  More breeziness tomorrow though. 



Beyond that...  some interesting ( but fun to glare at )  " scare - cast scenarios "  being tossed around in the model runs today related to the potential return of the heat later on,  ..particularly,  today's 18z runs from the GFS,  AIGFS, and  EC - AIFS..

*** Keep in mind:    this far out,  while each is something to watch over the coming days,  NONE   of these particular model run outcomes are to be taken seriously.  ****

Important reference points, particularly for the AZ low desert cities:

582mb heights =  Surface /2m temps generally landing somewhere in the 80s  ..maybe a few 90s. 

585mb heights = Mid 80s / more 90s..

588...  Widespread, " Somewhere in the 90s " kinda heat,  isolated / widely scattered readings reaching 100 possible.

591... Upper 90s likely / 50%+ chance of widespread 100s / Some possible 100+ readings. 



AIGFS =  ..The tamest:  Relatively flat ridging across the Southwest / Troughiness over the Pac N.W. helping to keep the ridge subdued..  Would get warm of course, but nothing too crazy..





GFS = Middle of the road:   Building ridge but still somewhat subdued  ..thru this run at least..  Warm,  ..about to where we've been so far,  maybe a touch hotter.    588mb heights centered just to our west / southwest rather than overhead. 






EC - AIFS = What the heck is this model seeing:  STRONG and pronounced ridge w/ 591mb heights slung over Eastern AZ  /  Western NM / and TX,  and far Northern MEX..  585mb height line reaching the SF Bay Area / Salt Lake City area.   =  Would be pretty early to see such a strong ridge develop over the area. 

Surface temps in this scenario from both Tidbits and Pivotal reach / breach 100F locally. 




Should this particular thought become reality,  and we saw temps reach / exceed 100F,   it would occur a few days earlier than the date it actually occurred,  March 26th, 1988.    100F also represents the hottest reading ever recorded in March.



..We'll see which   ..if any..   of these scenarios lies just beyond the reliable forecast horizon..

That said,   ...the way this year has started off,  can't toss this outcome / something close to it  in the dumpster just yet,  either. 

[Silas_Sancona]

73F at 2:01PM on your Friday =   A perfect day for those who love a bright n' mild sun shiny day ..with a little breeziness tossed in.. Won't last ..so enjoy it. 

Upward, to the upper 80s by Sunday,  then one more dip to kick off next week as the long - forecasted cut off low ..currently slipping south through the state atm reaches it's suggested position off Cen. Baja and starts sending in the clouds..

As for any rain chances?? ..We'll see.. Not all that optimistic myself as the dynamics this system might be able to generate may stay focused across far Northern Sonora / Chihuahua,  eastern / southeastern AZ  and the mountains east of PHX where, if moisture arrival / residence time is timed right, they might see a chance for widely isolated spring - season thunderstorm activity. 

Temps stay mild as this system passes thru the region. 

After movin on east to the plains? ..temps begin a quick rebound and are back in the 90s by  -at least- Thursday. 





As you can see, right now at least,  looking like we'll be reaching -at least-  the mid 90s again by next weekend.  Climb up the ladder may not stop at the mid 90s either as we reach mid - month and approach the start of Astro. Spring.

Models atm are still tossing around the various ideas i'd mentioned earlier regarding the potential for another big heatwave.. Some runs have backed off the more " extreme / likely overly enthusiastic "  ideas, while others have pulled back, ..just a tad.. compared to those same, more extreme thoughts.  

Think it all will come down to just how much ( ...if any.. ) ridge -taming troughiness hangs around across the Pac. N.W. / general Northern tier of the U.S.  as we head toward / beyond next weekend. 

Regardless, have seen at least a few forecast runs showing highs reaching the 100 -102 or 3F range locally right around the 20th, so.. we'll see what happens.  Those same runs generated temps between 85 -92F for parts of the SF Bay Area as well..   ..Which would be pretty crazy for mid March up there. 


Pinch of salt tossed on the Martini glass for the day:  Today's 3-4 week thoughts from the CPC.. 





Additionally, a look at what SST temp anomalies could look like next month.. 



Why mention this so far in advance?  Simple..  Warmth seen off CA and Baja / Mex. thru the winter hasn't wavered at all and looks to stay well in the + red ( Above norm. ) thru this month.  Deeper we head into spring, more they will only warm,  esp w/ out frequent passage of N. Pac. generated spring storminess generating much -if any- significant upwelling along both the CA & Baja coastlines /  More frequent, long duration high pressure sitting over this area ( clear skies overhead  = more heating of the waters below in those areas ).   

Add to this the emerging warm pool ( indicative of the much talked about, potential transition to El Nino later ) starting to peek out into the sea off Ecuador and...  That warmer than normal water slowly starts being drawn north, up the west coast of Cen. America/ Mexico as we head forward in time. 

We may be 2 months out from the start of the E. Pac. Hurricane season ( Starts on May 15th ) but, this kind of look,  as the season becomes visible out on the horizon,  is how you'd  " set the table ",  so to say,  for kicking things off early,  and active, right out of the gate,  later.  ..Potentially at least..  Other things needing to come together jusst right at that time = There are no 100% guaranteed outcomes when it comes to anything -weather related.   Still, such warm SST values in this region, so early,  are something to keep an eye on. 



Also seeing some of the first hints of the of the rainy season in far S. Mexico starting to come to life..   Moisture from activity occurring down there is what will be aiding in generating rainfall across TX and the Plains / parts of the east  in the coming days. 



We'll  ..be opening the kitchen cabinet, and pulling out the frying pan.. 

Next question ahead is   ..when do we start to cook.. 

 Tis' the season.. 

 

[SeanK]

On 2/9/2026 at 10:33 PM, PAPalmtrees said:

Right now it's 24. It's going to be around 46 Tomorrow but typically at my house our daytime highs are always a couple degrees warmer so it will probably be around 50. Thankfully we got out of that nasty Arctic blast in most days will be pretty average except a couple.

Tomorrow there's also a chance of thunderstorms. I hope we do get some. I love lightning and thunderstorms https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DVKyYNGW8/

Also today we had our first crocus blooms!!! And many more to come. I uploaded a video of them if anyone wants to watch it. https://youtube.com/shorts/3K_dBprBxlI?si=jp-pkk72MsUO9wVG

 

 

It was way early for crocuses. Has the weather gotten better across I80?

[PAPalmtrees]

6 minutes ago, SeanK said:

It was way early for crocuses. Has the weather gotten better across I80?

Yeah it was definitely early but not crazy early they were in a warmer microclimate by the house. Yes the weather has been good recently next week it will be in the 80s one day.

[flplantguy]

Here in Hudson Florida it went from a low of 33 fareinheight and frost in the last cold wave to highs of 90 and warmish nights (68) in a week.  Straight from a winter pattern to a summer one, complete with a thunderstorm and surprise rain.  Hopefully it keeps up good grow weather 

[PAPalmtrees]

This is for tomorrow. crazy weather already!

[Silas_Sancona]

A beautiful 72F at 9:17AM, headed for the high 80s ..possibly reaching 90 in a few spots   later under mostly sunny skies..

Week ahead looking pretty simple atm..  Clouds from this nicely wound COL off Baja atm start increasing either late today or sometime overnight as it starts heading back toward Sonora. 

While Cutoff Low -type systems that end up in this area of the southwest aren't all that unusual this time of year,  the robust - looking ..ongoing.. convection associated w/ it isn't something you see too often this early in the year..   this is being aided by warmer than normal water temps in this area.  Will be interesting to see how this effects the overall forecasts later..

Can also easily see the long fetch of south to north moving, low level moisture being drawn north / northwest along / just below the foothills of the Sierra Madre Occidental in Sonora and Sinaloa / up the Gulf as well..  If this same / a very similar setup were occurring in mid July or August,  all that moisture being funneled toward AZ would = a good chance of storms across at least the southern half of the state. 






Will we see any rain ..and/ or Thunderstorm chances locally tomorrow / tomorrow night??  ..Both questions will hinge on where exactly the low tracks as it works it's way across the borderlands.  Forecast outcomes for COL's are notoriously difficult to nail down as is, so...

Chances for both have been added  ..then pulled from   ..than added back into..   the local forecasts over the last couple days.

Ultimately, the outcome will come down to:

** Closer to AZ it ends up = higher chance for moisture to reach Cen. AZ, lower deserts esp. 

** Stays further south  ..passing closer to or over Hermosillo,  rather than near Nogales?  Less chance we see much of anything / Would confine a majority of any precip and any storm chances to far southeastern AZ .  

Unfortunately, low stays to far south / east to offer up anything for S. Cal this time. 

Regardless, even with the clouds, temps hang in the upper 70s to low 80s tomorrow as it approaches,  before -briefly- dipping to the mid 70s on Tuesday  as any " cool down " influence from the storm as it heads east  ends. 




After one more day of ..seasonable.. weather ( lower 80s ) Wednesday,  ...as the title says,  it's looking more and more like we'll be spending the rest of the week under " nuthin but 90s " from Thursday onward,   with the first  -potential-  100F reading of 2026 now on the board ( ...until it gets yanked, lol )  for next Tuesday  ..St. Pat's Day. 

I say " potential " because,  depending on which 10 day forecast one might look at,  when you look it over,  high next Tuesday may stay  just under 100,  or exceed it by a deg or two.. 

Regardless of whether or not we reach it on the suggested date,  or a few days later,  as mentioned earlier,  if a high of 100 / 100+ occurs before  March 26th,  it would be the earliest 100F reading recorded here. Deg or two above 100? at any point before the end of the month?  = breaks the monthly record.

Even if we somehow dodge hitting the century mark before the 26th,  no doubt,  we'll be back to breaking daily records on certain days after next Thursday. 

If some of the more bullish forecast thoughts i've seen pan out as suggested, we may stay at / above 90 from next Thursday until -at least-  the 23rd / 24th,   if not longer.  



For now, enjoy the next couple of days of  " normal " and get ready for what could be a very early start to " Sizzle Season "..

 

[Silas_Sancona]

75F at 10:37AM  headed for 80 /80+ ..and possibly some storms??   by later this afternoon. 


Morning look at the current True Color Satellite loop vis Nex Lab sets us up for the rest of the short - term forecast..  Well defined COL now situated just off the Baja Spur will advance east / northeast ward thru the day..  w/ Plenty of moisture advection north from Sonora already starting to generate shallow convection over far southern AZ..






What that leads to, for the valley?  will depend on thoughts from yesterday.  Still,  this mornings' short term forecast from the NWS sums up the storm potential for this afternoon / evening as the low slides to our east..  




While this isn't an optimal setup, as mentioned above, don't be shocked if a few stronger , ..but brief..  isolated storms pop up somewhere locally. 



Further out?   Longer term thoughts from this mornings forecast discussion also lay out what is on the way after this system heads east.. 




As you can see, current thoughts from WX Underground have only upped the temps as we head into the start of next week.  Overdone / biased toward a hotter outcome atm perhaps??    ..or.. could we really be looking at quite a stretch of out of season heat..






Crazy,  early season sizzle  isn't confined to this side of the Colorado River either..    Last paragraph from the San Diego NWS morning discussion is quite an eye popper.  25 -50% potential of 110 / 110+ readings for Palm Springs / Thermal?  ..in mid - MARCH? =  ..crazy. 




Some records to watch closely for the weekend / next week:





Flirting with the 90s,  up in the South Bay as well??..   




Shower / storm potential today aside,     ..sure lookin like  WX related  " March Madness " / the deafening sound of shattering records is about to get wild out here..

[PAPalmtrees]

Right now, it's 78° tomorrow it will be in the 80s i'm not complaining at all! lol

[Mazat]

Actually 32.72 F / 0.4 C community garden 425m

[Silas_Sancona]

After a reasonable, Monsoon -esque tease yesterday afternoon,  and some morning spit,  clouds are clearing out as residual moisture associated with the COL responsible for yesterday's break in the heat heads into the southern Plains where it will stir up more trouble.

Once the sun breaks out overhead, temps head from the mid 60s now ( 63F at 11:11AM in the hood ) to somewhere in the upper 70s < ...or low 80s, neighborhood - side.. > as we head into the afternoon.

Enjoy it cuz' it will likely be the last time we see sub - 80F high readings here for ..quite awhile...  


No need to post the 10 forecast from underground today, you know what is coming.  80s for your Hump Day, ..then the pan hits the stove..  Tack on potential day #3 of highs reaching 100+ to yesterday's  forecast and    ..Get ready..


More crazy thoughts regarding how things are looking, esp as we start next week,  in this mornings' NWS discussion:




For those interested ..here,  and in ..pretty much every corner of the Western U.S....    Daniel Swain will be live on YT today around 3PM PST offering his expert thoughts / context  on what continues to look like a historical heat event on the way.. 








While seeing -any- highs reaching 100 in March is rare,  a 3 -5 day stretch at /above that mark is unheard of.  

Add to this the multi- day stretch of temps exceeding 90F:  A few 2 -4 day stretches doing so scattered thru March isn't all that unusual.  The potential that we may see  -at least-  ..10  90 / 90+ deg. days, in a row,   with a reasonable shot of reaching 15 days on the table = unprecedented,   should that occur.

Record, multi day stretches of 90F temps before May include:

23,  set in 1989, 

15, set in 1946,

..and  ..the most recent,  13* ..set in 2021  * = I'll have to double check since i think we added a couple more days before we got a break that year. 

..All of these occurred  ...in APRIL.   NOT  March.



On a less sizzling side note,  Now that we are quickly closing in on the middle of the month,  we are about 13 days  from crossing two important ( to me at least ) Solar Noon thresholds for observing one of the most fascinating, warm season Atmospheric optical phenomenon, the Circumhorizontal Arc ( CHzA ), which becomes observable in this part of the country once the sun elevation is above 58deg at noon.  

Once the sun < at noon > is above 60deg,  these can be observed on any day the right type of Cirrus clouds are present in the sky. 


 Fingers crossed this is an excellent year for these, esp. once we reach / proceed through Monsoon Season. 













 

[80s Kid]

18 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

After a reasonable, Monsoon -esque tease yesterday afternoon,  and some morning spit,  clouds are clearing out as residual moisture associated with the COL responsible for yesterday's break in the heat heads into the southern Plains where it will stir up more trouble.

Once the sun breaks out overhead, temps head from the mid 60s now ( 63F at 11:11AM in the hood ) to somewhere in the upper 70s < ...or low 80s, neighborhood - side.. > as we head into the afternoon.

Enjoy it cuz' it will likely be the last time we see sub - 80F high readings here for ..quite awhile...  


No need to post the 10 forecast from underground today, you know what is coming.  80s for your Hump Day, ..then the pan hits the stove..  Tack on potential day #3 of highs reaching 100+ to yesterday's  forecast and    ..Get ready..


More crazy thoughts regarding how things are looking, esp as we start next week,  in this mornings' NWS discussion:




For those interested ..here,  and in ..pretty much every corner of the Western U.S....    Daniel Swain will be live on YT today around 3PM PST offering his expert thoughts / context  on what continues to look like a historical heat event on the way.. 








While seeing -any- highs reaching 100 in March is rare,  a 3 -5 day stretch at /above that mark is unheard of.  

Add to this the multi- day stretch of temps exceeding 90F:  A few 2 -4 day stretches doing so scattered thru March isn't all that unusual.  The potential that we may see  -at least-  ..10  90 / 90+ deg. days, in a row,   with a reasonable shot of reaching 15 days on the table = unprecedented,   should that occur.

Record, multi day stretches of 90F temps before May include:

23,  set in 1989, 

15, set in 1946,

..and  ..the most recent,  13* ..set in 2021  * = I'll have to double check since i think we added a couple more days before we got a break that year. 

..All of these occurred  ...in APRIL.   NOT  March.



On a less sizzling side note,  Now that we are quickly closing in on the middle of the month,  we are about 13 days  from crossing two important ( to me at least ) Solar Noon thresholds for observing one of the most fascinating, warm season Atmospheric optical phenomenon, the Circumhorizontal Arc ( CHzA ), which becomes observable in this part of the country once the sun elevation is above 58deg at noon.  

Once the sun < at noon > is above 60deg,  these can be observed on any day the right type of Cirrus clouds are present in the sky. 


 Fingers crossed this is an excellent year for these, esp. once we reach / proceed through Monsoon Season. 













 

This is pretty wild. I might have to bump up the Arizona thread for this event. This should be big news for the weather community assuming the forecast holds up but I have my doubts. I believe it was late summer / early fall 2024 when something like over 20 days in row broke high temp records in Phoenix and it was basically an afterthought on some of the major weather sites. 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, 80s Kid said:

This is pretty wild. I might have to bump up the Arizona thread for this event. This should be big news for the weather community assuming the forecast holds up but I have my doubts. I believe it was late summer / early fall 2024 when something like over 20 days in row broke high temp records in Phoenix and it was basically an afterthought on some of the major weather sites. 

Oh discussions / threads / comments regarding it are all over Social Media atm... 

Major WX sites? ..i ignore them completely   ..Total waste of time when it comes to any in depth / focused, local or region -specific weather coverage / info..

As soon as he posted the second thread a couple days ago,  as you can see, there were lots of folks discussing it, let alone sharing his thoughts on the upcoming heatwave.. 





FYI,  As shown in the first post,  official data from the NOAA regarding how this winter ranked is out.  In his YT live stream yesterday, Dan went into detail regarding how ..despite the extreme cold experienced in the east,  this winter still swung record warm -overall-  Dan also briefly dug into another site i need to look at that breaks down individual ranking ..per state / location within each state. 

Simply put, while colder than normal in some areas, none of that cold was exceptional  ..per whatever historical context the NOAA uses when assessing their seasonal rankings.  On top of that, as you can see, a much larger region of the country ( ours ) was exceptionally warm  ..which greatly mutes the historical ranking of whatever cold occurred back east ..a much small geo. region compared to the west / plains. 

Dan also mentioned how the Tule Fog episode there helped keep both the Cen. Valley and overall ranking across more of CA below the all time warmest threshold. 

Crazy thing about all of it is S. Cal in particular experienced their wettest Oct - Feb period ..on top of the heat..  Looking at the ranking, you'd have thought this were another exceptionally dry winter down there. 



What caught my attention was,  ..toward the end of his discussion yesterday,  he also brought up a pretty sobering fact that may come to pass..   

...While this winter will go down as exceptional ..for how warm it was..  What is exceptional  now  ..in historical context..   may not be all that exceptional  say 15 or 20 or so years from now.   IMO,  thought of a winter like this becoming ordinary,  rather than exceptional ...is definitely eye brow raising,  ...even if it is something i've pondered myself numerous times. 





..As for the forecast?  ...Let's hope what is suggested right now for later next week is a little too enthusiastic / heat biased,  ...compared to reality.   105 / 105+ highs,  ...in addition to...   4  -potential-,  back to back days above 100,   in ....MARCH??    ....is pretty mind blowing considering the monthly record is a single 100F reading for 1 day..   



Talk about dumping a pile of nukes on this months' record high,  lol.. 😬
 

[PAPalmtrees]

right now its 66f it's been raining on and off all day. today we have a chance for some pretty severe thunderstorms and even some tornadoes

[Silas_Sancona]

20 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

..As for the forecast?  ...Let's hope what is suggested right now for later next week is a little too enthusiastic / heat biased,  ...compared to reality.   105 / 105+ highs,  ...in addition to...   4  -potential-,  back to back days above 100,   in ....MARCH??    ....is pretty mind blowing considering the monthly record is a single 100F reading for 1 day..   



Talk about dumping a pile of nukes on this months' record high,  lol.. 😬
 

NWS discussion this morning hinting at the potential of exceeding the magic, 105F threshold.



Woke up to the sound of the AC running for the first time this year.. lol. 

[PAPalmtrees]

Right now its 78 Sunny and beautiful but within a couple hours the severe thunderstorms will hit

[80s Kid]

3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Oh discussions / threads / comments regarding it are all over Social Media atm... 

Major WX sites? ..i ignore them completely   ..Total waste of time when it comes to any in depth / focused, local or region -specific weather coverage / info..

As soon as he posted the second thread a couple days ago,  as you can see, there were lots of folks discussing it, let alone sharing his thoughts on the upcoming heatwave.. 





FYI,  As shown in the first post,  official data from the NOAA regarding how this winter ranked is out.  In his YT live stream yesterday, Dan went into detail regarding how ..despite the extreme cold experienced in the east,  this winter still swung record warm -overall-  Dan also briefly dug into another site i need to look at that breaks down individual ranking ..per state / location within each state. 

Simply put, while colder than normal in some areas, none of that cold was exceptional  ..per whatever historical context the NOAA uses when assessing their seasonal rankings.  On top of that, as you can see, a much larger region of the country ( ours ) was exceptionally warm  ..which greatly mutes the historical ranking of whatever cold occurred back east ..a much small geo. region compared to the west / plains. 

Dan also mentioned how the Tule Fog episode there helped keep both the Cen. Valley and overall ranking across more of CA below the all time warmest threshold. 

Crazy thing about all of it is S. Cal in particular experienced their wettest Oct - Feb period ..on top of the heat..  Looking at the ranking, you'd have thought this were another exceptionally dry winter down there. 



What caught my attention was,  ..toward the end of his discussion yesterday,  he also brought up a pretty sobering fact that may come to pass..   

...While this winter will go down as exceptional ..for how warm it was..  What is exceptional  now  ..in historical context..   may not be all that exceptional  say 15 or 20 or so years from now.   IMO,  thought of a winter like this becoming ordinary,  rather than exceptional ...is definitely eye brow raising,  ...even if it is something i've pondered myself numerous times. 





..As for the forecast?  ...Let's hope what is suggested right now for later next week is a little too enthusiastic / heat biased,  ...compared to reality.   105 / 105+ highs,  ...in addition to...   4  -potential-,  back to back days above 100,   in ....MARCH??    ....is pretty mind blowing considering the monthly record is a single 100F reading for 1 day..   



Talk about dumping a pile of nukes on this months' record high,  lol.. 😬
 

Sorry, I shouldn't have used the word "community" as I was referring to the big name/major sites. I realize they're pretty bad but I still couldn't believe that early fall 2024 heat wave was an afterthought. 

As long as the summer months have an active monsoon and don't have constant above average temps, I'm take the winter warmth all day long. 

What are the best places for weather info in your opinion?

[Silas_Sancona]

7 minutes ago, 80s Kid said:

Sorry, I shouldn't have used the word "community" as I was referring to the big name/major sites. I realize they're pretty bad but I still couldn't believe that early fall 2024 heat wave was an afterthought. 

As long as the summer months have an active monsoon and don't have constant above average temps, I'm take the winter warmth all day long. 

What are the best places for weather info in your opinion?

 No worries ..or need to apologize  ..I knew exactly what you were referring to cuz i'd noticed the same thing at that time as well. 


Still a few weeks to go before i'll offer up any of my early thoughts on the subject,  but  ..this.. may be our reward for early heat this year..

As far as websites?

** .. Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather are where i go to look over day to day forecast model data..  W/ some additional input added from any daily NWS office ( PHX,  and / or Tucson, etc regional offices ) forecast discussions. 

** Data from both the ECMWF ( " ECMWF Charts " section of that site )  and graphical / chart data from COPERNICUS make up where i go to look over longer term forecast thoughts ( multi -weekly / seasonal ) 

..Will look at stuff from the CFS and NMME ( North American Multi Model Ensembles ) too but thoughts from both aren't always the most reliable ..so   ..more salt, lol. 



** Weather Underground 10 day is the only place i trust when it comes to WX app- esque tools ** My opinion only but, it has been the most accurate day to day.    Reliable enough that i've been a loyal viewer since    ..2012,  if not earlier than that..

Point n' click from our local / other NWS offices aren't a " horrible " source for info either  ..but they seem to err more conservative / kind of bland in their thoughts / forecasts / discussions at times, esp. the PHX office  ..So i'll take whatever they're saying w/ some salt..

** Maricopa Co Flood Control District ( and Pima County's FCD site, ...and Rainlog.org   are where i go to look over any local / regional rainfall data after storms..

There are others of course that i can't remember atm.. 



Those i avoid ( ...like the plague? )  

Accuweather.. Used to be " ok, " for basic info,  but is now Horrible ..useless

Weather.com / Weather Channel -anything-  Extra horrible, ..and useless.  Always been a " corporate / sold out "  kind of site.


In 2026,    if those two sites are the only places someone looks to for " trust-worthy "  weather -related info they might be interested in obtaining,  they deserve all the bad info they receive, ..lol.    Same with only trusting what X Y or Z local news forecaster says. 


I've yet to find any weather app as reliable as data from Weather Underground so that's all i use.  They have an ap for both IOS and Android.  Never used it myself so i can't comment on how good it might  ..might not..  be,  compared to the main site.



Daniel Swain, who founded the Weather West website,  is the only person i turn an ear to for detailed dives into regional WX expertise.  Since he is an actual Climatologist,  who grew up in this part of the country,  he understands the physics behind all the nuts and bolts of the weather here / across the west.. 

 Very rare i find anything i might see differently compared to his thoughts on things.  No hype and his blog / YT live stream discussions are extremely articulate and easy to comprehend.  Noticed there are several folks from Chandler on his Threads page now..



At the other end of the spectrum,  Avoid the  " AZ Weather Force "  Facebook weather clown..  PLENTY of info out there on why.  

 

[PAPalmtrees]

Right now its 51. But recently this weather has been crazy this is for tomorrow We are going to have severe thunderstorms and damaging wind. People talk about the southeast and Midwest having crazy weather But us in the mid-Atlantic we do have crazy weather also

[Silas_Sancona]

80F at 7:08PM  after a mainly sunny Sunday afternoon in the low 90s..

One more day in the low 90s before...




You see it,  It's coming..  Get ready  ..to roast..



...We'll see if St Pat's Day escapes the century mark.