What is your current yard temperature?

[80s Kid]

Another warm day in the east valley of AZ...high of 83F and low of 57F. 

[Silas_Sancona]

After a  strangely " hot " day spent running around Tucson Saturday,  and actually enjoying a < Warm > SB Sunday,  Still 82F  at 5:28PM on Monday #2 of the month after reaching 86 around 3..  Honestly feels warmer than that.  Warm enough today that i had to water.  



Some neighborhood level readings around 3:30.. inc. a few 90s on the board today..  Back down to 84F by that time a few blocks from the house in downtown. 












One ( ?? ) more day  in the 80s before temps pull back a little as some unsettled weather returns to the west over the next few days. 



Slight rebound is currently suggested for the upcoming weekend, before a -potentially- stronger storm may bring a decent cooldown, and rain chances sometime next week..

..I say " potentially "  because,    ..eye balling the forecasts over the past few days,   while the < brief > pattern shift that has been suggested for the west around mid month is still on the board,  majority of the individual storms that may approach / pass through are looking pretty weak / majority of any rain or snow chances they might offer up staying further north than some of the earlier thoughts had suggested..  ..Direction most of the models seem to be pointing in right now.

As usual, what is suggested now, can flip tomorrow so, ..We'll see. 

Regardless, continued confirmation in the longer term model thoughts that ...whatever..  cool shift occurs over the next ~ approx. 10 days across the state / part of the country,  it will be gone by the final week of the month / Winter 25 -6   with temps quickly returning to above normal territory. 

Normal high at Sky Harbor is currently 70.  Pretty sure it increases by 2 -4 degs by the end of month, which means  ..if we return to the same " 9 to 15degs above normal warmth "  at that time,  we could be flirting w/ our first " official " 90 / 90s around the start of March..

Broken record repeating itself  again,  but,  we'll see what happens.

In a nod to just how dry / warm it has been, there is a wildfire being watched closely near Payson atm..


Monday P.V. check:  " Nothing - burger "  trend continues?






Rando 🤷🏽‍♂️ dilemma for the evening:  Who do you go with.. 




Strong is the loyalty to both teams..  so,   Guess the question will come down to:  Who  showed up ready to play.. 



Regardless,  per - fect night for anyone making the wise choice of watching the game out - side,  ..Here at least.    
 

[80s Kid]

47 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

After a  strangely " hot " day spent running around Tucson Saturday,  and actually enjoying a < Warm > SB Sunday,  Still 82F  at 5:28PM on Monday #2 of the month after reaching 86 around 3..  Honestly feels warmer than that.  Warm enough today that i had to water.  



Some neighborhood level readings around 3:30.. inc. a few 90s on the board today..  Back down to 84F by that time a few blocks from the house in downtown. 












One ( ?? ) more day  in the 80s before temps pull back a little as some unsettled weather returns to the west over the next few days. 



Slight rebound is currently suggested for the upcoming weekend, before a -potentially- stronger storm may bring a decent cooldown, and rain chances sometime next week..

..I say " potentially "  because,    ..eye balling the forecasts over the past few days,   while the < brief > pattern shift that has been suggested for the west around mid month is still on the board,  majority of the individual storms that may approach / pass through are looking pretty weak / majority of any rain or snow chances they might offer up staying further north than some of the earlier thoughts had suggested..  ..Direction most of the models seem to be pointing in right now.

As usual, what is suggested now, can flip tomorrow so, ..We'll see. 

Regardless, continued confirmation in the longer term model thoughts that ...whatever..  cool shift occurs over the next ~ approx. 10 days across the state / part of the country,  it will be gone by the final week of the month / Winter 25 -6   with temps quickly returning to above normal territory. 

Normal high at Sky Harbor is currently 70.  Pretty sure it increases by 2 -4 degs by the end of month, which means  ..if we return to the same " 9 to 15degs above normal warmth "  at that time,  we could be flirting w/ our first " official " 90 / 90s around the start of March..

Broken record repeating itself  again,  but,  we'll see what happens.

In a nod to just how dry / warm it has been, there is a wildfire being watched closely near Payson atm..


Monday P.V. check:  " Nothing - burger "  trend continues?






Rando 🤷🏽‍♂️ dilemma for the evening:  Who do you go with.. 




Strong is the loyalty to both teams..  so,   Guess the question will come down to:  Who  showed up ready to play.. 



Regardless,  per - fect night for anyone making the wise choice of watching the game out - side,  ..Here at least.    
 

I recorded a high of 83F and low of 53F in the east valley today. I agree that it felt like it was warmer sitting in the sun but might just be because it's winter (lol!). 

As much as I don't want to see a cool down, I really can't complain with the winter we've had so far. I've definitely had to do more watering than usual for this time of the year. 

I was not aware of the fire in Payson so I'll have to look into it. 

[Silas_Sancona]

32 minutes ago, 80s Kid said:

I recorded a high of 83F and low of 53F in the east valley today. I agree that it felt like it was warmer sitting in the sun but might just be because it's winter (lol!). 

As much as I don't want to see a cool down, I really can't complain with the winter we've had so far. I've definitely had to do more watering than usual for this time of the year. 

I was not aware of the fire in Payson so I'll have to look into it. 

While i have been very.... discriminating.. w/ any watering,  even with how dry / warm it has been ( Most of what i'm growing can't be watered this time of year regardless )  i have had to hit some stuff ..just enough.. to be sure those particular things don't suffer root dieback due to a lack of -any- moisture in the soil.  ..and to keep some seedling stuff planted alive. 

Good portion of what spring annuals i have growing out front ..even the stuff that came up at the right time,  are all showing signs of throwing in the towel for the year.  


Looks like the fire ( Bonita, via Watch Duty info. ) is contained at 26.3 acres..  https://app.watchduty.org/i/78721   regardless, was a little surprised to hear of -any- incident on the news tonight..

[PAPalmtrees]

Right now it's 24. It's going to be around 46 Tomorrow but typically at my house our daytime highs are always a couple degrees warmer so it will probably be around 50. Thankfully we got out of that nasty Arctic blast in most days will be pretty average except a couple.

Tomorrow there's also a chance of thunderstorms. I hope we do get some. I love lightning and thunderstorms https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DVKyYNGW8/

Also today we had our first crocus blooms!!! And many more to come. I uploaded a video of them if anyone wants to watch it. https://youtube.com/shorts/3K_dBprBxlI?si=jp-pkk72MsUO9wVG

 

 

[PAPalmtrees]

Right now it's 50 degrees here in needmore Pennsylvania the extended forecast looks pretty good except a couple days but i'm not complaining 

The state of Pennsylvania has like an invisible line of which side is Warm and which side is cold. It's cool how the jet stream works.

[PAPalmtrees]

I know this is not warm for a lot of people , but this is a very  warm winter night for us in february its currently. 48f at 12:02 here in needmore Pennsylvania 

[Silas_Sancona]

Cloudy w/ occasional spit  and a breeze yet,  ..it's still reasonably nice out..   

Bouncin' between 65 and 68 thus far thru the afternoon but, with some possible breaks in the clouds as we head thru the rest of the afternoon, ..perhaps we reach 70 ..briefly..   Not too bad regardless..

Weekend ahead looks clearer ..and warmer, esp. Sunday when we could add another 80 to the impressive - for - so -early - in - the - year total.

Suggested, " bigger " storm is still on the board for ..sometime... between Tuesday and Thursday / Friday  of February week #3 but,  ..for now at least,  i'm not quite as impressed w/ it as i was a couple days ago.   




Essentially,  the low / general Trough position may end up hung up further north ..and / or.. to our west which means   ..While there will be a cool down, and some chances for valley elevation rain ( Thinking maybe up to .25" atm ) and some Snow up in the mountains / north of the Rim,  i won't be shocked if a majority of the precip forecast w/ this system ends up focused north of AZ and far S. UT / NV..  ..More up toward the Pac. NW / N.Cal, and areas further east at roughly that latitude..  We'll see.. Model to model consistency hasn't been the best this week so,  a stronger / deeper storm rolling through -at least- the northern half of AZ can't be ruled out.

CA will get some decent rain / snow for the Sierras /  CA /Ore.  Border Mtns though. 

How long any West Coast / Western US troughiness hangs around afterwards  has also been wavering a bit in the models this week..  

While most model runs essentially scoop out any troughiness at our latitude by ~approx. the 22nd or 23rd,  some model runs want to have it hang around a little longer before nudging it out of the region / confining it to the far Pac NW / Northern section of the Interior mountains region of the west..

Regardless, as we reach March 1st / end of winter / start of Spring, majority of longer term forecast thoughts bring back above avrg. warmth..   Will March Madness roll in with firecrackers in hand, like this month did,  right out of the gate?   ..Have to wait n' see..   Have seen a couple " hot  hints " in some extended model runs but, ....for now, they are just ..Hints..  We'll see how the same time period looks after this next storm series has come and gone next week. 

Current 12z model thoughts :  *** As always, take any of these with grains of salt ***












Today's thoughts on March from the CFSv2:    ..Again,  don't pass on the Salt.. lol.






Regardless of how quickly the desert / region heats up again after the coming week's milder break,  ...it's March and  even a " cool " day at that time is rarely below 65F.   

If we don't see any before the 5th of next month, pretty sure that's a wrap for any right- at- dawn lows below 38 for this side of 2026. 



With the arrival of Spring '26  14 days away after tomorrow,  attention turns to just how quickly upper 90s arrive / the first 100F reading is achieved. 

All important  -for later-  " All eyes on Southern and Eastern Mexico "  watch also begins as we eyeball the first,  distant on the horizon hints as to how the summer ahead could look like here..  

..On a similar note, 


Out in the Pacific / Gulf of CA, we're already starting off quite warm, out of the gate..  Rare you see these kinds of SST anomalies off CA and Mexico this early, let alone across the entire N. Pac...  ...and it is only upwards from here.  All that warmth out there has effected both precip and temps across CA and the west all winter,   A signal like this in mid Feb.  =  could lead to some interesting things come May. 






...And last but not least, a PV check:  ..Not looking too bad.    We'll see what that suggested wiggle around the 1st of next month does. 

[Silas_Sancona]

65F at 7:58PM after a perfect afternoon reaching -at least? 79F for tree trimming cleaning out some beds. 

One more day in the 70s before ..what continues to look like.. a quick ride thru the 60s before ..resuming ..and ending.. our journey thru " Hot " February??. 

Despite the " good " looking thoughts in various model runs,  the closer we get to the " suggested " rain chances ahead this week, the less impressive things look in the nearer term forecasts ..for the valley at least.  Ft. Hill areas N and N.E. of the valley might see -something- but, ..won't be surprised if we see less than .15" ..if even anything beyond some pavement wetting sprinkles.. 



Along the same idea,  ..for now at least..  what rain chances might pass through after tomorrow night / Tuesday morning may not add up to much. 

Interesting that the NWS is touting a chance of T-storms ( Cool season type, of course ) in their current forecast yet none of the other current forecasts (  WU / T&D  for example ) are.  Not surprised if they're yanked by the time we reach Wednesday at all.  Don't see anything dynamically  impressive for storms from any of the systems headed through the area over the next few days. . .Unless the NWS'es idea of a storm is a weak flash or two of lightning up in the clouds,  and a burst or two of widely scattered / occasional pea sized hail from maybe a single storm as it rolls out of town.  regardless....





Headed for the final few miles of the month ..and  " winter "?..    We'll see if the suggested  < ..rather quick > jump in temps occurs come next weekend..  If so?  the suggested jump from 71 on Saturday to the mid 80s for next Monday in WU's current forecast could feel a bit toasty after a few days in the 60s this week. 

 Individually,  model runs continue their indecisive flippin and floppin between a quick  -and sustained- return to " Hot February ",   and continued unsettled conditions thru  ~ about the 25th or 27th..  before things settle down as March rolls in so,  devil will be in the details over the next few days. 


Of all the longer-term model thoughts i'd put -any-  faith in,  GEFS 00z 840HR ( ***Updated daily,  just after 8PM locally ) seems to be the only one that has remained fairly consistent in what the final few days of the month / March'es opening act could look like ( ...Rather warm, Btw,  currently ) 

On the flip side  ..If the " precip " forecasts  ( 7 day total precip Anomaly in the GEFS'es data ) pan out as suggested right now and we see no  ..or very little...  rain across the area / low desert in general  over the next few days  ..that may be it    ..for awhile...

That includes adding any more snow to whatever does  ..or doesn't..  fall up in the mountains this week, too. 

Is  ..what it is..  

For the " cool -ish  " enjoyers out there,  ..enjoy what likely will the last  " cool " spell  of  " winter" 25 -26.  

[Las Palmas Norte]

On 2/10/2026 at 9:02 PM, PAPalmtrees said:

I know this is not warm for a lot of people , but this is a very  warm winter night for us in february its currently. 48f at 12:02 here in needmore Pennsylvania 

 

 

I like it. You're staying on topic rather than graphs, charts, statistical analysis and week long forecasts. Spring isn't far off.

"What is your current yard temperature?"

[PAPalmtrees]

1 hour ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

 

 

I like it. You're staying on topic rather than graphs, charts, statistical analysis and week long forecasts. Spring isn't far off.

"What is your current yard temperature?"

My current temperature is 23 Probably about 200 feet from the house, 28.3 By our pool, 31,7 by the house, But this entire week it will be in the high 50s and some 60s

[Silas_Sancona]

Despite only reaching the upper 60s today, pretty nice afternoon underway across the valley after a few, pre- sunrise showers and quite windy ..and dusty. conditions last night...

Some totals from MCFCD. 




Rainlog,org data ..Surprised it is out so soon ( usually lags by a day )






While my thoughts on rain totals seem to have paned out, appears a couple gauges managed to surpass the  " higher than .15"  thinking i'd had. Still, best rain totals landed where i'd expected ..up in the foothills. 

Tucson got some relief as well..






Regardless,  unless something changes over the next 50 hours or so, that's likely it for any more rain, down in the valley at least..  While we can't totally rule out any spit as the series of storms anticipated to pass through the region over the next few days rolls through, most forecast data out right now keeps the bulk of those chances up north.  



What we won't escape?  ..a few days in the mid " meh " 60s / one or two nights in the lower 40s / possibility of some widely scattered readings in the upper 30s in less developed neighborhoods on Saturday morning.. 

Because some people seem to get weird whenever temps below 45F are suggested in a forecast,  Guaranteed,  we'll live LOL.     ..So no whining about a couple cool mornings over the next few. 


FTM, abrupt warm up,  starting on Saturday,  is still on track.  

 ..so, for the next couple days,   enjoy what is actually pretty typical for February   ..Mild-ish days / cool- ish starts,  some breezes and puffy clouds passing through at times..  Won't be long till we're craving this kind of break from the heat to come. 


PV check:  Keep an eye out for that devil in the details.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild ..but nice.. 64F at 1:36PM under the occasional,  light breeze, and wispy cloud streaked wall to wall sunshine as we await the approach and passage of one last low pressure system, currently scheduled to race through the area over night. 

Unless up in the Foothills, don't expect more than a pavement wetting -at best- from this system as it rolls through. Ft. Hill neighborhoods?  ..you might get a quick, light wetting  ..If you're lucky. 

Tomorrow looks about the same as today w/  temps hanging in the lower to mid 60s.  Enjoy it because...........

After the possibility of some low 40s / upper 30F readings at sun up on Saturday morning around town,  only direction is up ...wayyy up..  as we count down the final 7 days of the month. 

Question as we reach the finish line is  ..Could we reach  ..if not surpass..   the warmest high ever recorded in February??   YES,  you heard that right..  

As i mentioned before, if you're a mild weather lover, ENJOY the next 24 to 36 hours cuz'  that's probably the last of it for the season. 

Temps returning to the 80s is all but a guarantee by Sunday.  Mid 80s are back in action by Monday / UPPER 80s by Wednesday,  ..per the current forecast.  

While it certainly could change,  last two days of the month are looking down right HOT  ..for this point in the year at least,   in every forecast model run right now. 




Can see the currently suggested forecast high of 90 for next Saturday but,  Knowing how temps. have over preformed during our heat waves so far this year,   that forecast 90 might end up reaching ..or exceeding..  the 92F reading that represents the hottest temp ever recorded in February.. 

 Should it actually reach 90, officially,  mid 90F ( ...or 95+? ) readings are all but a guarantee at the neighborhood level.. 

Lows jump from the suggested upper 30s / low 40s Saturday morning, to the upper 50s / low 60s by -at least- the middle of next week. Morning lows in the 60s could fall within record territory should they occur. 

As far as any more rain / snowfall?    ..If no one gets spat on over night,  that is it for rain chances, for awhile.

High country should get sommore' snow over night but,   ..with the heat returning,  both here and up in the mountains,   whatever snowfall gains might have been made over the last few days will be gone by next weekend for all but the highest spots.. 

...Additionally,  This may be just a taste of what lies ahead as March arrives since the High Pressure area forecast to build over the area over the weekend may only lock itself in as the calendar  ...and season...  flips. 



Needless to say...   Pretty safe to say that, at least for us ..and likely S.Cal.,   " Winter " 25 -26    ...is  OVER!!   

***  Remember,  with the abrupt change to ..potentially.. quite toasty..  temps on the way,  shortly,   Hydrate / STAY Hydrated!!  Have already been some heat -related issues out on the trails  ..and it's only February..   

Just because temps aren't exceeding 100F doesn't mean  you can't get into trouble if you're not drinking enough liquids. 

It is 2026,   Don't be an idiot,   Drink enough / bring enough water with you while out enjoying the great weather ahead.. ****

[JohnAndSancho]

Dog, it was 83 today. And we're supposed to have lows of like 26 Monday and Tuesday. I hate this 💩 so much. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A sun -soaked and pleasant but brisk -y 64F at 2:59PM.  Aside from some high clouds streaming through the area,  quick moving storm that passed thru overnight,  is now making it's way into the plains,  dragging the trough that has brought one final taste of " winter " with it . 

Interesting view watching snow that had been laid down last night across N.E'rn AZ melt away on satellite thru the day.  Expect much more of  the yucky white stuff to be gone soon. 





After one last cool  start tomorrow,  well,   ..no need to repeat what lies ahead for next week  ..other than noting that  there are now  4 days of reaching / exceeding 90F on the forecast board after mid week..  We'll see what happens. 





On that note:  Looking over some prelim. data from this winter from both Accuweather and Time and Date,  both here  and down in Tucson,  have a strong suspicion that this will end up being the warmest winter on record for both areas,  esp. once data from the final few days of the month ..and season.. are added in next weekend.  

While it isn't unusual to see an entire winter with no 32 / sub 32F readings up our way,  it's a bit eye opening not to see -any- 32 / sub 32F readings for Tucson,  ..at least where T&D / Accuweather's data is collected.    ..More on that later..



Feb. alone will likely smash it's own monthly record.

Even with the dip in temps over the last couple days dragging down the averages ( ...only a hair though.)   Avrg. high was at +9 on Monday so a few days causing it to drop just below +8 isn't much of a dent, esp. with a toasty week ahead. 






Today's 3 - 4 week thoughts   ** ..Consumed with a little salt on the glass rim of course =  Game On!