What is your current yard temperature?

[UK_Palms]

The impending cold spell here in Europe looks to be a bit of a bust now looking at the models. It will get colder by this time next week, but nothing like what was originally being modelled a few days back.

The eastern half of America on the other hand looks like it is about to get smashed by severe cold in the last week of January. Not even sure about Texas escaping it looking at some of the modelling. Houston may escape the worst, but Dallas may get smashed too. Modelling is showing ice storm risk as well as harsh nighttime temps...

Temperatures 30-40F below average in places...

[Phoenikakias]

@Than what was the min in your garden during the last two nights?

[Than]

2 hours ago, Phoenikakias said:

@Than what was the min in your garden during the last two nights?

5,2 last night and 4,5 C the night before. Yours?

[Phoenikakias]

1 hour ago, Than said:

5,2 last night and 4,5 C the night before. Yours?

3, not bad given southeastern mainland was especially affected by this cold spell.

[Than]

1 hour ago, Phoenikakias said:

3, not bad given southeastern mainland was especially affected by this cold spell.

you are almost 10B!

Cold day today, maximum here was 11 C and only for like, half an hour. Now it is 10.

[Phoenikakias]

5 hours ago, Than said:

you are almost 10B!

Cold day today, maximum here was 11 C and only for like, half an hour. Now it is 10.

Here max 12 C but I am completely in the dark about duration, I plausibly suppose that conditions were similar to the ones in your place. But I am not 10B , no way, not even closely, in  fact I am not even solid 10A, instead transitional between 10A and 9B.

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild 63F at 6:26PM after another day in the mid / upper 70s... Headed for the lower 40s by sunrise.. 

End of the week, as we reach into the final days of January  ..and middle of winter ( Meteorological, of course, silly ) looks cooler, with maybe some showers wandering thru the region as a cutoff low off S. Cal makes it's way east across Baja and Sonora over the weekend.



How much rain locally?  ..Id be surprised if we get over .30"   Overall, highest totals w/ this system are more likely to fall over far Southern / S. eastern AZ.   Slight chance for iso. " winter - season " thunderstorm activity w/ this system too.

Some snow is possible over far N. eastern AZ / Maybe the highest peaks further west on the Rim,  ..if the coldest air associated w/ this system is around when the greatest chances for precip. are.  

Not looking like a big snow - maker anywhere up there at the moment regardless. 

Same can't be said for N.M. where moisture arrival may line up with the arrival of the next surge of cold air forecast to plunge south down the plains and squeeze out a decent opportunity for some of that white death only a few here enjoys seeing much of.. 

That said, not all models are on the same page w/ that particular scenario, so... they too may escape seeing any snow this time. 



Regardless,  temps. will cool back to the 60s for a few days locally / morning  lows maybe re- visiting the mid / high 30s on at least one morning ..in the developed parts of town at least..   

Nothing unusual though since it is mid January...




After this storm heads east of the area, temps rebound back into the lower / mid 70s again   ..or is how things are looking right now.. 

For now at least,  majority of the extended forecasts keep this part of the world above normal as we reach the end of the month / start of the final 28....   days of  " winter " 25 - 6. 


On a side note,  ..After a quick peak over the next couple days,  maybe another before the 3rd of next month,   is the Polar Vortex about to start down a slow glide toward the exit for the remainder of the winter,  ....a bit sooner than is suggested by the average??   

  ..We'll see..

[Silas_Sancona]

A warmer than forecast 73F under partly cloudy skies at 1:40PM on your 2nd to last Friday of January 2026... 

Some rain ahead for the evening / early morning hours tomorrow??  ..I have my doubts in the current forecast suggestions..  

Looking at the current COD True Color Sat across the region,  two things stand out ..that may keep much - if any- rain out of the area..


1: nothing but clearing skies to our north / west.. Drier air is also being pulled south / east toward the area from CA and the Pacific..





2: Low that is bringing our rain chances looks like it is diving further south off Baja / will cross Baja near ..or just south of.. the Baja Spur, before heading east across Mexico,  than was forecast earlier. 

Moisture feed on the right side of the low,  currently passing over Baja Norte, doesn't look all that impressive, imo.  Outside, most of what cloud cover has passed overhead is confined to the mid /upper levels and doesn't look " juicy "  < ..like it would bring much rain >

That can change later ofcourse..

FYI: On the map,  Maricopa, Pinal,  and Pima Cos are under the yellow " Nex Lab " tab in the upper right corner..





If the " digs further south than forecast " scenario is the case for this system,  that would shunt most of the " ideal " dynamics for rainfall further south and east across AZ..  With anything more than .10" of an inch of possible rainfall falling south and east of a line roughly following I - 10 between here and Tucson / I -19 Between Tucson and Nogales.

Yes, if there are any stronger showers / weak brief storms that form over the area later tonight / tomorrow,  always favored < in these setups > upslope spots north and east of the valley could see a nice  .20"+ downpour ..but again ..a few heavier showers vs a prolonged band of rain passing through is the current thought..

Here?  i anticipate nothing more than asphalt wetting spit ( under .15" ) ..   West side of town / Downtown and Tempe area?    ..You might not see a drop. 

2nd area of low pressure anticipated to drop south from Eastern Utah / Western CO across far E. AZ / NM along the western edge of the overall arctic airmass headed south across the plains  may end up slightly more to the east of AZ than currently forecast so,   ..any influence from it may be minimal, esp. here.

Regardless, it's outta here by tomorrow evening..

Though the more recent 10 day forecasts have warmed a couple degs. over earlier thoughts,  still could see a couple cool mornings / chance for " around at sunrise in shady spots frost "  here and there,  esp. in the typically cooler spots but,  " minimal frost threat " chances end by Tuesday or Wed. morning.



Overall pattern heading through next week may keep nights cool -ish as some northerly /N.E'rly  flow hangs around this side of the divide but 70s are back by Monday  ..Per the CURRENT forecast thoughts..

Could also be returning to the upper 70s by the time January closes out if the warmer forecast model thoughts on the maps atm pan out.

" Take it with a grain of salt "  Side - Note:  ..Cuz it always changes...   Looking through the final month of winter via today's 3 -4 week thoughts, ...among others from different models that gaze out that far..   Looking pretty good, as we reach the final 28 day stretch of winter 25 - 26. 





I myself think we'll have 1 or 2 more " minimal frost / sunrise lows in the upper 30s " chances before March 1st  but,  ..We'll see. 



All that said,  As dry as it is now,  ..and likely will continue to be going forward..   we could be a couple weeks away from our first big warm up of 2026,    esp. if a large ridge sets up over the area again..  

Regardless, Sure lookin like Spring is just an on ramp away for the low desert   ...and  -at least-  S.Cal.  


 

[Chester B]

68F today and soon to be a whole lot worse.

[Mazat]

actually 3.7 C / 38.66 F down in the community garden

[JohnAndSancho]

50. It was 65 an hour ago. Low of 14 tonight. 

 

Little rainy. 

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DT790fzjrpL/?igsh=enh2MXFmanFtbmVk

 

Edit: I lied. It's 45. 

[MarcusH]

36 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

50. It was 65 an hour ago. Low of 14 tonight. 

 

Little rainy. 

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DT790fzjrpL/?igsh=enh2MXFmanFtbmVk

 

Edit: I lied. It's 45. 

23f right now but it was 21f around 7am with ice all over the place. 

[ChrisA]

24F at my house in San Antonio. Power is still going! NICE!

[JohnAndSancho]

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

23f right now but it was 21f around 7am with ice all over the place. 

 

1 hour ago, ChrisA said:

24F at my house in San Antonio. Power is still going! NICE!

It's pushing its way here. I think I'm gonna be up all night babysitting my POS gas heater in the plant room. 

[ChrisA]

The ultimate low at my house this morning was 22F (-5.5C).  Now my thermometer is showing 29F (-1.7C). The sun is peaking through the clouds here and there and the ice is melting.  Amazingly the ice is starting to melt where the sun or at least the brightness is hitting it.  Still frozen in the shade.  Fortunately we are locked in a MEGA drought as all the precipitation that was forecasted was cut in third. The one inch with thunderstorms we were on tap to get two nights ago amounted to 0.37" and the nearly .3 inched of ice they forecasted we were going to get was maybe 1/10th.  The roads look clean and dry, even though there is hardly a soul out. Tonight is  supposed to reach 21F and tomorrow night is forecasted for 18F.  We will see. My robusta's look miserable. Filiferas are holding up, but I do wonder how my 70+ year old ones are going to do. I've written before, but they have mostly defoliated in 4 of the last 5 winters, so if they don't tolerate this winter better, then it'll be the 5th time in 6 consecutive seasons. No Bueno!

[MarcusH]

1 hour ago, ChrisA said:

The ultimate low at my house this morning was 22F (-5.5C).  Now my thermometer is showing 29F (-1.7C). The sun is peaking through the clouds here and there and the ice is melting.  Amazingly the ice is starting to melt where the sun or at least the brightness is hitting it.  Still frozen in the shade.  Fortunately we are locked in a MEGA drought as all the precipitation that was forecasted was cut in third. The one inch with thunderstorms we were on tap to get two nights ago amounted to 0.37" and the nearly .3 inched of ice they forecasted we were going to get was maybe 1/10th.  The roads look clean and dry, even though there is hardly a soul out. Tonight is  supposed to reach 21F and tomorrow night is forecasted for 18F.  We will see. My robusta's look miserable. Filiferas are holding up, but I do wonder how my 70+ year old ones are going to do. I've written before, but they have mostly defoliated in 4 of the last 5 winters, so if they don't tolerate this winter better, then it'll be the 5th time in 6 consecutive seasons. No Bueno!

Most of the ice is gone but like you said there's still some ice in shaded areas and from my observation I still have some ice on palms here and there.  Hoped for more sun but no it's completely overcast at this moment.  We're back to our typical winter again.  

[ChrisA]

Yes, the clouds have been persistent today. The sun came out several times but I am thinking the sun's energy is being mostly used to melt ice which raises humidity and probably creates more clouds. According to my min/max thermometer we just barely reached 32F and are back down to 30 now.  

[RedRabbit]

28f and falling! Just brought my Wunderground back online.  

[Las Palmas Norte]

Coldest day so far this winter. We had 30°F overnight low.

 

 

[JohnAndSancho]

I've got multiple apps telling me multiple things so I'm just gonna roll with Accuweather. It says our temp is 28 with a "feels like" of 11 and I absolutely believe it. My nipples could cut glass and my boy parts are halfway up my ribcage after walking the dog, and everything is just soaking wet. The whole yard is like the carpet in a flooded house. My toes are all wet. I'm not particularly enjoying this but I know a lot of people got it worse than this so I'm just gonna scratch my belly button and keep checking the plant room heater.