What is your current yard temperature?

[Mazat]

13 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Hey Tom, thank you for the kind message.  Let me give you my honest opinion about warm winters.  The only thing why I pray for a mild winter is because of my plants , that's the only reason. I can't stand long periods of hot weather and I really hoped for a cooler winter to get a break from the never-ending summer lol. We have 2 more months of zick zack weather then the weather patterns become more stable and warmer.  I miss the snow that's why I'm going to spend 5 days in Colorado next week. 

You are welcome. Yes, that's something. My childhood friend Otto is in Brazil on business near Manaus and later in other larger cities, and he told me that I should appreciate our temperatures because since he's been in Brazil, it's been rainy and humid, and he would rather still be in Portugal with Dani near Lisbon with her friends...
I'm happy for you and your family that you can spend a few days in a wonderful place, away from the heat. Are you going skiing there too?
I wish you and your family lots of fun.

[Mazat]

11 hours ago, Than said:

I feel you.. if it wasn't for my plants I'd go live in the coldest part of my country. Summer heat makes me miserable. Winters on the other hand are when I feel my best and most energetic. I also miss snow. 

I wouldn't have thought so, Than. Then you would like it here, especially the higher-altitude places and the many lakes and diverse climates, the many mountains, good air, and of course we would show you Quinten SG, which has achieved and offers a special cfa climate and is only an hour away from me by car and yet is much milder. -3°C was the lowest temperature there so far this winter 2025/2026, which the people there describe as really arctic when you ask them about it. Last year, the lowest temperature was -1.8°C... My goodness, I am envious... The annual average there was 13.3°C, measured on a Davis Vantage Pro 2, and 1580 mm of rain. In the community garden, we had an annual average of 11.4°C...

[Than]

51 minutes ago, Mazat said:

I wouldn't have thought so, Than. Then you would like it here, especially the higher-altitude places and the many lakes and diverse climates, the many mountains, good air, and of course we would show you Quinten SG, which has achieved and offers a special cfa climate and is only an hour away from me by car and yet is much milder. -3°C was the lowest temperature there so far this winter 2025/2026, which the people there describe as really arctic when you ask them about it. Last year, the lowest temperature was -1.8°C... My goodness, I am envious... The annual average there was 13.3°C, measured on a Davis Vantage Pro 2, and 1580 mm of rain. In the community garden, we had an annual average of 11.4°C...

Wow, 13,3 C average is very close to the average of some northern Greek towns. Not bad for Switzerland. Where I live now it is like 17,5 C. 

Personally, I am jealous of the Azores or Madeira: plenty of sun, no cold, no heat. Perfect.

[sped94]

21 hours ago, Than said:

Wow, 13,3 C average is very close to the average of some northern Greek towns. Not bad for Switzerland. Where I live now it is like 17,5 C. 

Personally, I am jealous of the Azores or Madeira: plenty of sun, no cold, no heat. Perfect.

I am in Canarias now 🌤️ 

[Than]

56 minutes ago, sped94 said:

I am in Canarias now 🌤️ 

Hard life eh... stay strong there man!

Will you do any palm safari? Will you also get any palm souvenirs?

[sped94]

3 hours ago, Than said:

Hard life eh... stay strong there man!

Will you do any palm safari? Will you also get any palm souvenirs?

I collected s. romanzoffiana seeds as souvenir and i would like to make it sproud… by the way i don’t think they cant survive at my home without protection…

i visited the palmetum in Santa Cruz, very beautiful  

[Than]

9 hours ago, sped94 said:

I collected s. romanzoffiana seeds as souvenir and i would like to make it sproud… by the way i don’t think they cant survive at my home without protection…

i visited the palmetum in Santa Cruz, very beautiful  

You never know. From my recent experience with a mild frost in my garden, it's not the temperature but the frost that damages the plants more. Do you get frost on the grass and leaves in your garden? If not then go for it. 

Even if you do, you can always cover it when frost is expected. A sheet will do. Nothing sophisticated. I won't bother with trying to raise ths temperature inside the cover again. I'll just cover loosely to stop frost from forming. I think it's enough when temperatures are not too below zero.

[Silas_Sancona]

A cool, cloudy  56 -58F around town at 10:05AM as some light rain tries to roll into the area from the south..  " Heavier " stuff on radar seems to be staying where most of it was forecast to occur ...south of town, down more towards Tucson and areas south /east of there..

Perhaps some of it tries to make it further north thru the rest of the day before a break between this storm, and a quick hitting trough that will race through the area sometime tomorrow bringing another chance of rain, a little snow ..finally.. for the mountains ( When i say " a little " Flagstaff -might- see 3-7" < at best >  ..Which is nothing..     Areas above 5.5 - 6Kft further east / south in the White Mtns. might see close to / just over a foot  ..Which still ain't much, compared to what should be on the ground right now up there )

Same trough might stir up a few low - topped, " winter season " thunderstorms as the front whips through the low deserts tomorrow afternoon before rain chances and clouds rapidly clear out later as well.. 

Bigger story with this quick change in the weather will be a couple " chilly " days ( Highs in the mid / upper 50s to about 62F, and a couple mornings flirting with a little frost / 32F ) in areas sandwiched between downtown PHX < warmer > and the less- developed,  " semi-rural " < cooler >  neighborhoods, which could see a morning or two drop to ...or just below.. 32F. 

Frost potential, at least where i'm located, will depend upon how much rain falls in the 'hood over the next 24 or so hours..   See more than say .10"?,  that could be enough to keep dew points high enough for a couple days ..which ups the frost chances.

Rain stays more to my east / south than currently forecast?  While temps will dip into the 30s for a couple mornings,  w/ out any extra moisture in the ground, dew points would stay lower,  which makes frost formation more of a challenge..

While i don't think the coldest air forecast to move in sticks around long enough to trigger a legit, multi- day heavy  frost / freezing event here, averaging out what the current forecast thoughts are,  thinking we'll probably see at least one morning of the icy stuff on the grass / rooftops.  ..It's January...  Not too common we don't see a -at least- a few 30s sneak into the forecast  ...in January.. 

Areas further outside of the burbs?  ( Queen Creek / San Tan Valley,  Florence and Coolidge,  AJ/ Gold Canyon,  Casa Grande ..Tucson area.. ) You all might dip a little lower / see a higher chance at a legit frost / light freeze event for the next couple mornings, esp. where ever the heaver rainfall totals end up..

Only things brought in are the Orchids, a Hoya,  Anthurium  ..and a tree that can take some cold  ..when a little older than it is now.

Everything else will be fine..  Got sheets and towels around if needed for a night ..or two..








...As you can see, " Chill spell " in the forecast for the next few days doesn't last.  

Depending on what forecast above you choose to put much / any faith in,  general idea ( ..For now at least )  in all 3 is that temps warm right back into the 70s next week..

By the time we reach the end of Time and Date's current extended forecast thoughts,  first two events of the overall Gem / Mineral Show in Tucson will be under way / Sound of the stop watch ticking down the days of winter 25 -26 here grow louder.. 
 

[sped94]

15 hours ago, Than said:

You never know. From my recent experience with a mild frost in my garden, it's not the temperature but the frost that damages the plants more. Do you get frost on the grass and leaves in your garden? If not then go for it. 

Even if you do, you can always cover it when frost is expected. A sheet will do. Nothing sophisticated. I won't bother with trying to raise ths temperature inside the cover again. I'll just cover loosely to stop frost from forming. I think it's enough when temperatures are not too below zero.

I will try

there is a romanzoffiana they planted 2 years ago in a garden not far from my home and it is still alive… cross fingers

[Silas_Sancona]

Mid - 50s and Brriiissskkkk out as the final band of showers /storms drifts off to the east and south of town and skies clear from the north /west..  Wouldn't be so cool out if it weren't for the stiff breeze around atm.. 

While brief in nature ..and despite my doubts, actually saw a few decent, ( ...for early Jan.  ) low - topped thunderstorms roll through town over the last few hours. 

Now that they're outta here, focus shifts to a few chilly mornings ahead.. and the quick rebound on the heels of those cool mornings, over the weekend. 


While region -wide frost / freeze products are laid out across the area on the forecast map,  when you zero in a bit, i kind of laugh at this being more than an 2 or 3 day annoyance than anything serious ..even in the normally chilly spots outside the valley, or down in Tucson. 



> We're still hugging the 36 - 33F line here for the coldest morning in all the current forecasts, while the closer to downtown PHX one may be located, your neighborhood might not drop below 38 or 7, ...if not only bottoming out at 40F. 

> 28 - 32F is still the current forecast thoughts for the colder spots like  Casa Grande / Queen Creek and San Tan Valley. 

> Clicking around Tucson's current forecast area,  suggested lows in many spots are also in that same 28 - 34F  -ish range, though they might see an extra morning around 32 / frosty 35 of 6 compared to up here  ..Which is pretty typical. 

 Regardless, if most of the built -up spots down there manage to stay above 30F,  while 30F = a light freeze, that would be pretty remarkable considering January is when even warmest parts of town can drop into the mid - 20s. 

> Looking at the legit, chilly spots south of Tucson,  ..even places like Sonoita and Patagonia stay above 20F during this brief  " taste of winter " ..Both are listed as 8 A / B spots in the state. 



As just mentioned, " chilly shot " inbound,  is brief..   



Back into the 70s in all the forecasts next week  ..and further out... ( per Time and Date's current extended ) Lows also rise pretty quickly too. 








Overall warmup ahead may take us thru a good chunk of what remains in the month ..and the " coldest " portion of " winter "...  if the Weekly Temp Anomaly forecast from the CFS is in the ballpark.



....On a  " thats weird " sidenote,  GFS has been teasing the development of some sort of  " sub - tropical " storm < ...w/ legit tropical characteristics... > off Mexico several times over the last few days..  Doubt it happens but,  ..these days,  ..anything is possible i suppose. 











.....An early sign of what might lie ahead this year, out there,  later??  ..We'll see. 

  NMME extended forecasts have updated, Copernicus data should be out by Monday.. Should be interesting to look over once posted. 

...We'll see just how chilly the next few mornings end up,  too...

Promise,  we  ..and our leafy things..  will survive the next couple days, lol.    NO Howling at da' moon  aboutit'  allowed!!


🤔  Hopefully the next couple mornings will drop the hammer on the Mosquitoes.. FINALLY!! 

  ....It's January,  and they're STILL out  ..IN  droves,    ..At least in this part of town. 

   DIE  yaa'  little suckers  !

[Silas_Sancona]

A little chilly as the sun rose, w/a touch of frosted leaves in the coolest / shadiest spot in the back yard yesterday,  but.. looks like what breeziness is still around atm helped keep temps a touch higher overnight than had been suggested for many areas  ..though some of the typically coolest spots within outskirts neighborhoods / areas around Tucson did flirt with 32 / briefly dropped below the freezing mark both yesterday and this morning. 

Nothing crazy,  anywhere across the area,  regardless



If 37 and 39F are the coolest readings i see for what remains of this winter,  ..that's pretty good.. 


Depending on whatever breeziness is around later, could flirt with 39F tonight, ..or stay in the lower, mid - 40s.  

Same " veering from north to easterly breeziness today and tomorrow " might make it feel cool -ish ( today esp. ) but, 70s return tomorrow under crystal clear skies.. 

Upward, as we move onward into next week.. 






Time and date teasing an 80F reading in it's current extended again. Oddly a touch cooler than WX U's forecast for the week ahead atm too. 



We'll see...

[Silas_Sancona]

A fine 69F at 5 ( PM ) after reaching 71 on your Sunday in state 48... 

East / Northeasterly breezes seen locally thru the afternoon are settling down..

Upward,  ...as we head for mid - month..   Could we break 80?, on at least one day this week,  for the first time in '26?



...We'll see..


...Lookin' pretty nice, regardless, region - wide.. 

...As nice as it is looking locally,  we might actually be a touch cooler  than what is currently suggested in the local NWS " Point n' Click " forecasts for several spots in parts of SoCal this week, later half esp..   

..And not just in the usually warm, desert-y locales either..  L.A., near downtown,  possibly reaching 84,  ..a few areas in the San Fernando Valley maybe peaking at 85 - 86?  Coastal spots from Santa Barbara to San Diego approaching 80 ...maybe reaching 80 in a few spots???   I'll be pretty impressed if any of those " suggestions " actually pan out.. 

Day or two right around 70 in both San Jose and Santa Cruz?  ..definitely not bad for mid - January.. 



We'll get deeper into a topic that is increasingly being discussed in some circles already later,  but.. 

A look at current SST anomalies off CA / N. Cen. Pacific,  West Coast of Mexico and Cen. America atm.. 



Lots of Orange and red on the map, right out of the gate..  " Cool Pool " down near the EQ, seems to be loosing a bit of steam.. 

Looking over every WX model used by Copernicus that puts out longer term SST Anom. forecasts,  majority keep temps warm to ..toasty.. across the Pacific / off CA and west side of Mexico as we head into the spring.. 

Another year of " extra " - interesting??  ..Could be. 


...2 mornings in the upper 30s? ..didn't kill the skeeters.  Still out, seeking blood.  Year round annoyance now?  ..i guess so 🤷🏽‍♂️ 

[80s Kid]

Thanks for the info, Silas_Sancona. I moved out near the Fountain Hills area a few years ago from the Philadelphia/SE PA area to get away from the brutal northeast winters and have no regrets. Being able to see palm trees all over is a great feeling. 

As for the most recent chilly weather, I got down to 34F on Friday morning and had a little frost on top of my vehicle but nothing on any of the plants/foliage. Also had a couple buckets of rainwater that did NOT have any ice form. 

I've been lurking around this site on and off for a little while and as a weather and palm junkie, I appreciate the info everyone provides. I'm in a cool microclimate (9b/10a) but if anyone is trying to grow a cocos nucifera around here, the higher areas of Fountain Hills down through Shea Blvd toward Frank Lloyd Wright is a very warm microclimate (likely 10a/10b based on my personal observations). This area is routinely 5-10F warmer than the surrounding areas during the coldest parts of the day. 

I'm still learning about the nuances of the low desert southwest climate as it's obviously very different than the northeast but so far I find it to be quite interesting.

[Silas_Sancona]

49 minutes ago, 80s Kid said:

Thanks for the info, Silas_Sancona. I moved out near the Fountain Hills area a few years ago from the Philadelphia/SE PA area to get away from the brutal northeast winters and have no regrets. Being able to see palm trees all over is a great feeling. 

As for the most recent chilly weather, I got down to 34F on Friday morning and had a little frost on top of my vehicle but nothing on any of the plants/foliage. Also had a couple buckets of rainwater that did NOT have any ice form. 

I've been lurking around this site on and off for a little while and as a weather and palm junkie, I appreciate the info everyone provides. I'm in a cool microclimate (9b/10a) but if anyone is trying to grow a cocos nucifera around here, the higher areas of Fountain Hills down through Shea Blvd toward Frank Lloyd Wright is a very warm microclimate (likely 10a/10b based on my personal observations). This area is routinely 5-10F warmer than the surrounding areas during the coldest parts of the day. 

I'm still learning about the nuances of the low desert southwest climate as it's obviously very different than the northeast but so far I find it to be quite interesting.

Welcome to the oven  ..ah, i mean desert,  haha.  Definitely different than anywhere back east, let alone where you came from.. 

I've heard Fountain Hills can stay a hair warmer this time of year, due in part to elevation ( Coldest air tending to settle down in the valley, typically below where the foothill neighborhoods are located ), compared w/ some areas closer to where i'm at / on the far west side of town, ..not that it gets all that " cold " most of the time,  here, lol. .  That said, you can see a snowflake or two ..occasionally.. every few years,  though they rarely stick. 

If you've been out to Boyce Thompson, they're growing a couple unusual things from Southern Sonora in one of their gardens you don't -but should- see down here.  Both the Campus Arboretum ..At the UofA in Tucson / Tohono Chul Park ( Bot Garden in Casas Adobes area down there ) ..., have a bunch of other stuff from the same area, somewhat warmer / fairly frost - free in winter section of our region that you rarely see up here, but should ...( Mainly because no one plants them ), all have done really well at both locations down there ..and it can snow down there / drop into the mid /high 20s more often than we every will. 

He doesn't post here ( ..Moderates his own forum actually < Agaveville > ) but Ron Parker lives up that way and grows some interesting stuff,  ..though his plant collections are more Succulent- centric than palms or other tropical stuff -angled..

Agree that the 10A/B neighborhoods you mention would be a good test ground for Coconuts..  Awhile back, someone visiting the area did post a shot of a Coconut growing somewhere in ..or near.. Mesa,  but didn't give an exact location. Owner apparently wanted to keep that private i guess.. No worries, though i am curious what general part of Mesa it was in.  Anyway,  

Considering all the Royal Poinciana, Cassia fistula, ..and some other " tender " stuff i've noted in my neighborhood since moving here, and in other areas of town,  logical that coconuts would top the list of  " tropical " thing folks in the warmer parts of town should be eye -ing next.. 

As far as AZ Low Desert - centric climate -related nuances to master go, in the ..almost 10.. years i've been here,  the one thing that definitely makes a big difference with reducing heat / sun damage during our crazy summers?  tree canopy..  Lots of it.. 

Some people complain about it ( Because, ..trees...  they're soo messy..  right?  )  but, have plenty of leaf - provided shade over your yard?  you'll be very thankful for it / have more reach in what you can grow than many people w / out that canopy can.. 

I also advise people that when you plant, plant in a wide, shallow bowl that will catch runoff < When it actually rains, lol.. > / make it easy to deep water.  NEVER mound -plant..

Have a neighbor a few doors down who is growing Mangoes and ..Jaboticaba..  ...of all things..  which aren't easy to grow here ( our water, ..our special brand of summer sun / heat / dry air are very tough on them )  in a yard containing several high -trimmed Sissoo that provide bright, all day, shifting shade to everything under them.  Not a fan of that tree /would use something a bit less aggressive ( roots /suckering ) but, in his space, they work magic..

Think he'd tried a Coconut a couple years ago but lost it for some reason..

Anyway, feel free to brag about the week ( weeks ) ahead to everyone you know back home ...as much as you can..  haha. 
 

[Than]

After 4 days of rain, the coldest day of the year today, maximum will be 8 C / 47 F and at night the second frost of the year is expected with temperature at 0 C / 32 F. 

It is rare to have single digits (Celsius) maxima where I live. Usually they are above 10 C / 50 F.

Than has to do the tedious plant covering again today...

[Than]

Tonight I confirmed for the first time that my property is officially zone 9B. Minimum temperature was -2 C / 28 F. The coldest night so far, accompanied by light frost. Thankfully I have covered most sensitive plants. Frost only at ground level, so it hasn't affected taller plants. 

[Phoenikakias]

3 hours ago, Than said:

Tonight I confirmed for the first time that my property is officially zone 9B. Minimum temperature was -2 C / 28 F. The coldest night so far, accompanied by light frost. Thankfully I have covered most sensitive plants. Frost only at ground level, so it hasn't affected taller plants. 

Indeed the coldest night of current winter so far.  My weather station has recorded a positive digit of 1 C. And forelast night a  2 C for a second time.

[Than]

42 minutes ago, Phoenikakias said:

Indeed the coldest night of current winter so far.  My weather station has recorded a positive digit of 1 C. And forelast night a  2 C for a second time.

The difference between -2 and +1 is enormous! I'm jealous. Did you get frost on the ground?

My frost:

My Ficus lyrata (it was green lyesterday):

My Inga edulis, heliconia schiedeana and Musa basjoo: 

 

[Phoenikakias]

Βone dry!

[Than]

1 hour ago, Phoenikakias said:

Βone dry!

Yup. I guess some will survive losing their leaves or the aerial part (heliconia). But honestly this garden is colder than I thought.. I need to expand the canopy. Nothing below the canopy shows any damage (so far).

[Phoenikakias]

7 minutes ago, Than said:

Yup. I guess some will survive losing their leaves or the aerial part (heliconia). But honestly this garden is colder than I thought.. I need to expand the canopy. Nothing below the canopy shows any damage (so far).

You have any 10A palm in the ground? I do not care about outdoor pots, because root system can be exposed to air temperature. Besides you believe having a basjoo and schiedeana, but do you really have one of each? Tags do not suffice for a real identity. Also in what respect has already existing canopy helped, did it prevent warmth radiation during clear night, of had it kept  actually soil around tender plants relatively dry?

[Than]

32 minutes ago, Phoenikakias said:

You have any 10A palm in the ground?

I do, Howea, Dypsis leptocheilos, Ptychosperma elegans, Roystonea. I only protected Roystonea because it is not under canopy. The rest I did not protect but they are under orange trees.

 

34 minutes ago, Phoenikakias said:

Besides you believe having a basjoo and schiedeana, but do you really have one of each?

Not sure what you mean. I have several heliconias but they are all offshoots of one original plant.. I got it from a French nursery. They did not drop the leaves 10 days ago when they saw -0.5 C but let's see what happens now. I only have one Musa basjoo.

35 minutes ago, Phoenikakias said:

did it prevent warmth radiation during clear night, of had it kept  actually soil around tender plants relatively dry?

The temperature under canopy eventually became same as elsewhere even though it started slightly warmer (one degree warmer) in the first hours of the night. So I believe it's the drier conditions that prevented frost. On both frost occasions this month there was no frost under the canopy.

[Phoenikakias]

10 minutes ago, Than said:

I do, Howea, Dypsis leptocheilos, Ptychosperma elegans, Roystonea. I only protected Roystonea because it is not under canopy. The rest I did not protect but they are under orange trees.

 

Not sure what you mean. I have several heliconias but they are all offshoots of one original plant.. I got it from a French nursery. They did not drop the leaves 10 days ago when they saw -0.5 C but let's see what happens now. I only have one Musa basjoo.

The temperature under canopy eventually became same as elsewhere even though it started slightly warmer (one degree warmer) in the first hours of the night. So I believe it's the drier conditions that prevented frost. On both frost occasions this month there was no frost under the canopy.

So what about the rest palms among the orangerie, how did they fare?

It is supposed that basjoo has a very cold hardy rhizome. But plant under this name carked it in my garden after the 2008 cold spell, while Arenga westerhoutii pulled through! So there are sometimes, when you buy something different from what it had been offered officially.

Canopy temperature-wise does not help considerably during an advection cold spell. I rember I had lost l a red Kentia between two gigantic pine trees in the 2004 cold spell.

[JohnAndSancho]

A tad chilly. Maybe I need to rethink the shorts and sandals bit. 

 

Nah. 

[Than]

4 hours ago, Phoenikakias said:

So what about the rest palms among the orangerie, how did they fare?

Well, it's too early to say about yesterday's frost. They may show the damage in weeks from now. However, they did not show any signs of damage from the frost last week, when it was -0.5C. Howea looks fine for instance. Even those that are still very young. I am posting my Dypsis and my Ptychosperma, photos taken today. They are both tiny as you can see, I am not sure they will make it through the winter.

Many other 10A plants below the canopy look fine: monstera, cordyline fruticosa.. as for the Arch. cunninghamiana, they keep pushing a new leaf! 

 

 

 

Another plant that surprised me is the mango. It is in a pot (it's a dwarf variety), and it is in front of the house's wall but otherwise unprotected. It is not showing any signs of damage.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Another fine 69 ..on your Tuesday ( 11:42AM ) this time... 

Forecast say 72,  for the afternoon but, we'll likely get above that..  

Upper 70s ( ..and above?? ) arrive tomorrow.. 

Rest of the week / weekend / holiday ahead? ..looking great. 



Eyeballing some forecasts today as we peer into the end of the month,  all stay warm right now but one in particular could have us flirting with toasty as we reach the end of Jan. 

Not calling any AI - aided forecast model's thoughts on target,  at all  ..but,   today's 12z thoughts from the new AIGFS could be interesting to keep an eye on..



..When i look for " heat " signals in any of the forecasts here in the Desert  ..or even out in CA,    i'll eyeball certain clues in model data output..   500mb height anomalies,  and 1000 - 500mb thickness ( Dam ) heights for example.. 

Other factors aside,  generally speaking,  564mb thickness ( Dam ) heights often lead to what we're seeing now..  mild to warm ..but not hot.

Current forecast for Thursday, when we ..and some spots around S. Cal. could enjoy a few 80s..






Cross the 570mb mark, ..and temps can get pretty warm. 

576mb?..  See that on a map, esp. this time of year,  and you could be seeing early hints that your area may be setting some records.

Currently suggested forecast for the 29th..





588+ 500mb height anomalies are also interesting for the same time period,  ..should they occur..

Thursday..  Max 500mb peak of 585 over N. and Cen. CA.. 582 over AZ and S.Cal..




..Suggested 500mb anom. heights, On the 28 -9th..  588+ heights for Cen. / S. CA. and AZ.






Here?, being south of the 576 line / under 588+ 500mb anomaly heights could indicate temps exceeding the low / mid 80s..  

Same model's thoughts for surface temp. anomalies on the 28th - 29th:

5PM on the 28th:      Keep in mind, Anomalies are measured in C   ..not F. 




5AM on the 29th:





...Again, just one model's thoughts and ..as always,  this look could ( probably will ) flip n' flop this far out.   

While other model thoughts ( ECMWF,  EC - AIFS,  GFS ) keep things warm,  right now, none are quite as warm as the AIGFS' es.



Regardless, ..end of Jan. / start of Feb. <  ..and final 28 days of winter 25 - 6 >  could be interesting, region- wide,  ..if this sticks. 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

63F headed for?? ..We'll see..

Yesterday, while the " predicted " high was 72 here, exceeded that forecast by 3 degs. ( 75F ) Phoenix, at Sky Harbor, exceeded their forecast high as well ( Hit 77 ) so, ..we'll see if the same thing occurs today..  If so, 3 degs above the forecast high of 77 puts us at 80..  Downtown?, same ..or just above 80.

Scattered 80 /80+ " neighborhood - level " readings across WX U's map yesterday,  ..so we'll see if that is repeated ..or more widespread.. today..

Upper 70s ( ..or more ) ain't goin' anywhere until -at least- next Tuesday or Wed. 

Eyes still on the extended..


On another note, some thoughts on the winter thus - far,  region - wide,  from Daniel Swain:

*** Of note,  While th state was warm, Dan does mention how the Cen. Valley was the cool spot,  compared to the rest of CA,  due to the prolonged Tule Fog episode **




As far as the current Snowpack situation goes..  Yeah,  for the most part,  not looking like winter 25 - 6 will be a good year across the board for the west. 
 

[80s Kid]

3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

63F headed for?? ..We'll see..

Yesterday, while the " predicted " high was 72 here, exceeded that forecast by 3 degs. ( 75F ) Phoenix, at Sky Harbor, exceeded their forecast high as well ( Hit 77 ) so, ..we'll see if the same thing occurs today..  If so, 3 degs above the forecast high of 77 puts us at 80..  Downtown?, same ..or just above 80.

Scattered 80 /80+ " neighborhood - level " readings across WX U's map yesterday,  ..so we'll see if that is repeated ..or more widespread.. today..

Upper 70s ( ..or more ) ain't goin' anywhere until -at least- next Tuesday or Wed. 

Eyes still on the extended..


On another note, some thoughts on the winter thus - far,  region - wide,  from Daniel Swain:

*** Of note,  While th state was warm, Dan does mention how the Cen. Valley was the cool spot,  compared to the rest of CA,  due to the prolonged Tule Fog episode **




As far as the current Snowpack situation goes..  Yeah,  for the most part,  not looking like winter 25 - 6 will be a good year across the board for the west. 
 

These highs around 75-80F in mid-January are awesome as far as I'm concerned for metro Phoenix. The funny thing is we actually had a really wet fall and early winter so far despite the mild temps. The mountains surrounding the area are more green than I've ever seen them. However, it does make me think that the fire season could get ugly later this year. 

[Silas_Sancona]

23 minutes ago, 80s Kid said:

These highs around 75-80F in mid-January are awesome as far as I'm concerned for metro Phoenix. The funny thing is we actually had a really wet fall and early winter so far despite the mild temps. The mountains surrounding the area are more green than I've ever seen them. However, it does make me think that the fire season could get ugly later this year. 

Awesome for sure... 

A few shots of neighborhood - level temps around town atm ( 2:20PM ) Downtown Chandler and a couple other neighborhood stations closest to me are sitting at 79 -81F right now 













May add an update around 4:00.


Warm here, right?  ..Some current readings around S.Cal atm.  We're not worthy today,  lol. 








While fall 2018 also " wet ".  This year,  to me at least, seemed wetter..  Majority of it definitely fell early and it stayed warm enough to trigger stuff i usually don't see popping up in the front yard until about now to come up and start flowering around ...Thanksgiving.. 

Rains in Nov. / warm temps since were enough to trigger a " 2nd wave " ( ..which should be the main winter - spring show ) that is just starting to flower now..

Agree, w/ the earlier rains greening up a lot of places,  April - early June fire season needs to be watched closely,  esp. if it stays as dry as it is looking as we head into spring. 

What happens after that?  ..Could be interesting,  but,  too early right now to hedge any bets on anything being seen in any extended forecasts ...that go out to Monsoon Season.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

72F at 10:52AM ..headed for??  78F suggested, but already running a couple degs. ahead of yesterday around the same time so,  We'll see what that translates to around 3 / 3:30PM.  Yesterday,  once again, PHX exceeded the suggested / forecast high w/ a high of 81, which tied a record, and sits among the earliest, first 80F readings of any given year..   Not to shabby 

Rest of hood is also running warmer than yesterday at this time as well.. 










S.Cal check ( Just about 10AM PST )  ..Also not too shabby, lol..















In a nod to earlier thoughts ( ...from the GFS / other WX Models ) regarding " something interesting " spinning up in the tropical East Pacific,  chances may be low, but, are enough to garner some headlines.  
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/extremely-rare-storm-could-form-this-weekend/ar-AA1Udrpd?cvid=69684aca8c03498688ed131b78f4d9fb&ocid=DELLDHP



Looking at recent runs of the same models,  whatever might form out there looks weak, and brief ..weaker than had been suggested earlier in the weak. Regardless,  .....if....  a " sub " - tropical system does manage to form, it would be quite a rarity,  esp. for this early in the year.. 




Back to state 48,  Looking toward the weekend ahead?  = More of the same  ..here,  across S. Cal  ..and even up into the Bay Area where spots like Santa Cruz could enjoy a couple days in the low 70s.. 

Pretty sweet for " January "

[80s Kid]

5 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

72F at 10:52AM ..headed for??  78F suggested, but already running a couple degs. ahead of yesterday around the same time so,  We'll see what that translates to around 3 / 3:30PM.  Yesterday,  once again, PHX exceeded the suggested / forecast high w/ a high of 81, which tied a record, and sits among the earliest, first 80F readings of any given year..   Not to shabby 

Rest of hood is also running warmer than yesterday at this time as well.. 










S.Cal check ( Just about 10AM PST )  ..Also not too shabby, lol..















In a nod to earlier thoughts ( ...from the GFS / other WX Models ) regarding " something interesting " spinning up in the tropical East Pacific,  chances may be low, but, are enough to garner some headlines.  
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/extremely-rare-storm-could-form-this-weekend/ar-AA1Udrpd?cvid=69684aca8c03498688ed131b78f4d9fb&ocid=DELLDHP



Looking at recent runs of the same models,  whatever might form out there looks weak, and brief ..weaker than had been suggested earlier in the weak. Regardless,  .....if....  a " sub " - tropical system does manage to form, it would be quite a rarity,  esp. for this early in the year.. 




Back to state 48,  Looking toward the weekend ahead?  = More of the same  ..here,  across S. Cal  ..and even up into the Bay Area where spots like Santa Cruz could enjoy a couple days in the low 70s.. 

Pretty sweet for " January "

The high was 76F in my area today and 78F yesterday. However, the low was 51F this morning vs mid 40s yesterday. In addition, the 51F low must have been very early because it was 56F when I left for work a little after 4am. (51F had already been reached). This is very mild weather for low temps here. Typically when we have unseasonably warm weather the lows are still fairly chilly but wondering if leftover moisture from all the rain we had is helping to elevate the low temps a bit.

As I previously mentioned, the usual warm microclimate area did not disappoint and got up to 67F at the warmest part. It's measured with my vehicle but it's a fairly large area that is 5-10F+ above the surrounding areas. 

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

The high was 76F in my area today and 78F yesterday. However, the low was 51F this morning vs mid 40s yesterday. In addition, the 51F low must have been very early because it was 56F when I left for work a little after 4am. (51F had already been reached). This is very mild weather for low temps here. Typically when we have unseasonably warm weather the lows are still fairly chilly but wondering if leftover moisture from all the rain we had is helping to elevate the low temps a bit.

As I previously mentioned, the usual warm microclimate area did not disappoint and got up to 67F at the warmest part. It's measured with my vehicle but it's a fairly large area that is 5-10F+ above the surrounding areas. 

Big factor that played into parts of the valley  being fairly mild this morning, vs. say yesterday ( ..though that also depended on where someone is located ) had to do with light breeziness that persisted overnight which helped keep air at the surface mixed ..a term that essentially works out to bringing warmer air down to the surface / not allowing cold air to pool / mixing it out..  Sounds odd but this time of year,  air a few thousand feet above the surface here is warmer than closer to the surface and when the wx pattern sets up in a way where that inversion is disrupted, it can result in warmer overnight lows..  Strong high pressure can add to that effect. 


If any breeziness is coming from the north east / east, that air  is also descending off the rim / mountains to our north and east.  In most cases, descending air,  esp. under a high pressure area,  warms as it moves downhill,  so that can help keep morning lows mild.. 

..It's exactly the same kind of setup S.Cal. can see ( Santa Anas )  ..just not as pronounced, most of the time at least.  Topographical profile in many areas of CA  greatly enhances the compressional warming effects of descending air. 

Elevation is the next factor..  Hill top neighborhoods out there / around the rest of the valley  ..pretty much anywhere here,  or in CA.  can be milder than those located downhill,  next to River / less densely developed and flatter areas down in the valley ( IE: Queen Creek / San Tan / Casa Grande ). 

localized UHI effect can help the more developed areas of the valley stay a little milder..  More so if it stays breezy, and that breeze is already mild.. ..That played a part in areas close to downtown PHX staying ..downright warm.. ( for mid - Jan. ) this morning.

NWS mentioned the influence breeziness overnight / around at sunrise had on morning lows locally and in other areas.. 




I also noticed a similar,  very obvious wind shelter effect when eyeballing morning lows down in Tucson a couple days ago.. 

 Regardless of elevation,  large area located in the central part of town was about 6 degs milder than areas to the north / south of that specific area,  and that " mild corridor " extended all the way from the neighborhoods right below the Catalinas,  all the way downhill to the river / downtown. 

It's usually neighborhoods located right next to the Rillito / Santa Cruz Rivers that can run the coldest this time of year but,  that morning,  areas of town that had no / very little breeziness from the east / northeast at that time,  due to that breeze being blocked by mountains,  regardless of elevation,  were the coolest. 

Touching on that,  if your house / neighborhood sits in a wind sheltered spot / area of town where breeziness might have dropped off thru the night,  you might end up seeing 45F on your thermometer at sunrise,  while 2 miles away / couple hundred feet above your yard, at a friends house, it's already 56 or 7. 

It isn't talked about much here compared to back home in CA but we have plenty of  " ideal for pushing tender stuff "  Thermal Belt spots around the valley / here and in Tucson. 

Regardless, Less ( or no ) widespread breeziness tonight,  morning lows will be more consistent / within a smaller range valley - wide. 

Reached 80 ..just long enough to register, after bottoming out at 44 ( no breezes thru most of the night here ) 

We'll see if we make a run at 80 again tomorrow.  Weekend looks great regardless. 

 

[SeanK]

On 1/13/2026 at 11:12 AM, Than said:

Well, it's too early to say about yesterday's frost. They may show the damage in weeks from now. However, they did not show any signs of damage from the frost last week, when it was -0.5C. Howea looks fine for instance. Even those that are still very young. I am posting my Dypsis and my Ptychosperma, photos taken today. They are both tiny as you can see, I am not sure they will make it through the winter.

Many other 10A plants below the canopy look fine: monstera, cordyline fruticosa.. as for the Arch. cunninghamiana, they keep pushing a new leaf! 

 

 

 

Another plant that surprised me is the mango. It is in a pot (it's a dwarf variety), and it is in front of the house's wall but otherwise unprotected. It is not showing any signs of damage.

 

Canopy is a life-saver on marginal nights.

[SeanK]

Bottomed out this morning at -8°C / 18.5°F. 20 miles NE of downtown Atlanta. 

[Than]

26 minutes ago, SeanK said:

Canopy is a life-saver on marginal nights.

Right?? I knew that canopy helps but I wasn't expecting this massive difference. Unless damage will show later, dunno, it's too early perhaps. But outside the canopy the damage was obvious from the first day! Now I know that in March I will plant 2-3 fast growing evergreen trees and cover as much of the garden as possible!

[Las Palmas Norte]

This is a screen shot of tonight's evening weather re-cap. Mild Canadian weather on opposite coasts and freezing temps in FL. Temps in degrees Celsius. I'm on the west (left) coast.

 

[Phoenikakias]

'Etwas Schlimmes wird geschehen,

das Böse kommt, wird nicht mehr gehen!'

Hey @Than, are you aware of the new forecast? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsbomb.gr/kairos/story/1708602/kairos-tsouxtero-kryo-xionia-kai-dynates-vroxes-pro-ton-pylon-neo-kyma-kakokairias/amp

 

[Than]

45 minutes ago, Phoenikakias said:

 

Hey @Than, are you aware of the new forecast? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsbomb.gr/kairos/story/1708602/kairos-tsouxtero-kryo-xionia-kai-dynates-vroxes-pro-ton-pylon-neo-kyma-kakokairias/amp

 

Yes but nothing much for the west. Weather forecast says the lowest here will be 5 C. 

[Than]

1 hour ago, Phoenikakias said:

 

Hey @Than, are you aware of the new forecast? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsbomb.gr/kairos/story/1708602/kairos-tsouxtero-kryo-xionia-kai-dynates-vroxes-pro-ton-pylon-neo-kyma-kakokairias/amp

 

Have you done any emergency preparations? Apparently it will go down to 0 tomorrow in Attica

[RedRabbit]

Wide range of temperature readings tonight.