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Mannnnn garbage ass East Texas weather. So I literally look at the radar 5 mins ago and it says we'll get light rain, so I put all of my seedlings outside and SOB it's hailing. Like big golf ball hail. Dragged everything I care about as close to the wall as I can, probably gave myself a concussion, and now it's just raining. Hard rain. 

 

Motherf*"""

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9 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Mannnnn garbage ass East Texas weather. So I literally look at the radar 5 mins ago and it says we'll get light rain, so I put all of my seedlings outside and SOB it's hailing. Like big golf ball hail. Dragged everything I care about as close to the wall as I can, probably gave myself a concussion, and now it's just raining. Hard rain. 

 

Motherf*"""

 

Straight 🐴 💩

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36 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Mannnnn garbage ass East Texas weather. So I literally look at the radar 5 mins ago and it says we'll get light rain, so I put all of my seedlings outside and SOB it's hailing. Like big golf ball hail. Dragged everything I care about as close to the wall as I can, probably gave myself a concussion, and now it's just raining. Hard rain. 

 

Motherf*"""

Texas... the state with weather that is more deserving of a straight jacket than Florida.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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1 hour ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Straight 🐴 💩

Sorry about the hail but I'm LOVING this heavy downpour. Strong cell sat on top of me for about an hour and looks like I'll end up with about 1.5-2". Nothing beats rain water to make the plants grow! Planted some peppers before the rain because I'm convinced winter is over 😆

Balmy 66F/19C near midnight 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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13 hours ago, Xenon said:

Sorry about the hail but I'm LOVING this heavy downpour. Strong cell sat on top of me for about an hour and looks like I'll end up with about 1.5-2". Nothing beats rain water to make the plants grow! Planted some peppers before the rain because I'm convinced winter is over 😆

Balmy 66F/19C near midnight 

Both of my vehicles got absolutely peppered. My Venza took it way worse than the truck though. 

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1 minute ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Both of my vehicles got absolutely peppered. My Venza took it way worse than the truck though. 

Oh that sucks. At least the palms are okay? 

Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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1 hour ago, Xenon said:

Oh that sucks. At least the palms are okay? 

They should be ok. I dragged them under the patio pretty quick. 

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Just about perfect for early January... maybe a shower or two Tuesday, otherwise ..it's staying mild / slightly warm-ish, for now.. We'll see if we can eek out another decent storm or two here, before some things start to shift around...  For the moment at least,  seeing some hints of change to the overall pattern over the west just beyond the 15-20th.. 

Chandler / Greater E.V.:

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Tucson:

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Everyone in California wishing for a break?, You may just get one soon..

Back east?  wouldn't get too comfy with the current pattern..  a big flip may be just around the corner ..partially depending on what the P.V. decides to do of course..  An FYI? " Snow Lovers" back there are getting quite restless / angry atm.. Know any?  ..might avoid mentioning how you don't  want any more cold weather for the rest of this "winter" for a bit. lol.

Yes, the current  CPC 10 / 14 day outlooks are quite warm back east.. If a sizable flip is lurking, i'd expect any changes to the outlooks to show up within the next few days.  We'll see what happens..
430114571_Screenshot2023-01-08at15-30-21MarkMargavage(@MeteoMark)_Twitter.png.4f0d9f7f7b87de79e81eb8037b253adb.png

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MJO is already setting up to take a walk through the "Cold" phases.. 8, 1, and 2..  ***Obviously,  the "suggested" effects of the MJO can be amplified ..or muted  by what other things are doing ( NAO, PNA, AO / P.V., etc ).. We'll see how this progresses over the next week or two.

1045435811_Screenshot2023-01-08at15-36-03PV-Forecast(@PvForecast)_Twitter.png.fd60b319fc52126612da46290fe2c3d5.png


In the meantime, next big storm aimed at California may be an interesting one.  Thunderstorm activity already accompanied the one that roared through last night in some areas.  Hydrological situation across the state tomorrow and Tuesday should be closely monitored.. Could get interesting in some places if suggested rainfall totals occur, or are exceeded ..or that rainfall hangs around over a given area longer than forecast.. 

While thunderstorm activity isn't unheard up during winter storms on the home coast, organized convection is rarer.  Most thunderstorms that occur in CA ( coastal cen. / nor. CA esp ) are shallow ( in height ), brief, and might yield just a couple flashes of lightning..  T-Storm activity that might occur w/ the next storm may resemble a " good " summer storm in terms of how much lightning occurs / intensity of downpours / wind gusts as storms move through where they form.  Something to watch for.

FYI, first map is Precip'able. water anomaly... Second is suggested Lightning Flash Density, if this storm generates enough convection as it moves through, esp. over S. Cal.  #3 is Surface Based CAPE ( Convective Available Potential Energy ) 600-1000+ CAPE is respectable for anywhere in CA. esp. during the winter months.. Last map is suggested Composite Reflectivity as the storm reaches S. Cal..  Might be suggesting a Squall-line like feature moving into that area at that time  ~IF~  tonight / tomorrow's storm behaves as suggested..

1530884180_Screenshot2023-01-08at15-38-15DanielSwain(@Weather_West)_Twitter.png.1ae136c6ddf4fa00417ed4150581cc0e.png

Some pictures of the damage seen around Capitola, CA ( just south of Santa Cruz, for those who don't know the area) Have seen other pictures / video from other areas nearby.. While not of historical magnitude per se, damage experienced was pretty significant in some spots. Can't count how many times i have walked on ...and under.. the Wharf..

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A very "Un"-California-like scene from the north end of the Central Valley from last week.. Bet it is spectacular in person.

813284047_Screenshot2023-01-08at15-41-03ColinMcCarthy(@US_Stormwatch)_Twitter.png.5a14d7215186bf7bbab5a8b30c8a643a.png

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A wet, miserable day today in southern England with highs of around 7-8C / 45F. I was down in Portsmouth for most of it shopping at the big complex/mall. Saw a few palms.

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Just as I was about to leave the underground carpark at the mall, a wild fox suddenly appeared out of nowhere and tried to get inside my vehicle. At first I thought it was a ginger cat, but it climbed up and put its snout/face right on me, sniffing around the car for food. It was almost like a pet dog or something. Never seen anything like it.

I scared it off a bit when I quickly reached into my pocket for the phone/camera, but it just stood outside my vehicle still, wanting food or something. I did see it wander off and gesture to be petted on the head by another family at a nearby car. Again this was in an underground carpark at 4pm. Bizarre to say the least. This is definitely a 'give me food' face though.

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Currently 5C / 42F here at 2am. It's much colder now than it has been recently, although the theme for this coming week is generally mild still. Nothing like this time last month!

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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What a beautiful fox!

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5 year high 42.2C/108F (07/06/2018)--5 year low 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)--Lowest recent/current winter: 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)

 

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10 hours ago, Xenon said:

Oh that sucks. At least the palms are okay? 

Dirty Sanchez took a beating to save the baby Alfie's and Tuckerii. 

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Some pretty heavy rain falling in the north or our state, 831mm in 7 days around the town of Fitzroy Crossing. The Fitzroy River is usually 100 metres wide but is up to 15 kilometres wide at the moment. According to the radio this morning there is more water flowing out of the river every 15 minutes than is in the whole of Sydney Harbour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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66F atm, on the way to about 70, under passing mid/ high level clouds..

Some pictures of on-going flooding around parts of Santa Cruz County from today's storm.. Part #1 anyway..  Know the Felton Area well and  uncommon to see the San Lorenzo ( River ) running this high.. Is usually a trickle that barely reaches the Pacific ( ...on the south end of the Boardwalk ).

852161219_Screenshot2023-01-09at12-18-05DanielSwain(@Weather_West)_Twitter.png.5c747840f34df412847d5b2f582cf241.png

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Side note:  ..You know a storm is serious when Jim Cantore makes an appearance..🤣

Part #2 of this storm, on schedule to hit the coast this evening /overnight, into tomorrow could produce a rare light show for parts of the Bay Area and points south.. Can't recall the last time i saw that much lightning activity over the Pacific, in winter..

1573552889_Screenshot2023-01-09at12-17-04DanielSwain(@Weather_West)_Twitter.png.3b7315341722c5be5d7523bf8ba192da.png

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More later...

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On 1/7/2023 at 8:05 PM, JohnAndSancho said:

Mannnnn garbage ass East Texas weather. So I literally look at the radar 5 mins ago and it says we'll get light rain, so I put all of my seedlings outside and SOB it's hailing. Like big golf ball hail. Dragged everything I care about as close to the wall as I can, probably gave myself a concussion, and now it's just raining. Hard rain. 

 

Motherf*"""

 

Missed this one!   No way!!!

:(

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5 year high 42.2C/108F (07/06/2018)--5 year low 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)--Lowest recent/current winter: 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)

 

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16733051838426510161579293232287.jpg

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5 year high 42.2C/108F (07/06/2018)--5 year low 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)--Lowest recent/current winter: 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)

 

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18.6C and 92% humidity here at 7.15am. Going for 32C and possible thunderstorms today.

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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A bit of dry lightening around too. The fire brigades have been kept busy today. There's one not far from my place right now. 

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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So far my max today was 37.8C and my highest dew point 22.6C when a thunderstorm went through. 

Earlier today we had lightening strike fires around Torbay, which are now out, then King River which was near me, which were pounced on, and are out, and now they are fighting fires east of Albany south of the Stirlings around Green Range, towards Cheynes Beach way. It's been full on for the firies. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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So I guess tomorrow I'll call Flo at Progressive and hopefully I'll be happy as to why I pay $280/month for car insurance since my daily driver looks like it has cellulitis after the hail storm the other night. The amount of pine debris on the ground reminds me of Hurricane Ivan in Pensacola. My favorite night time dog walking game of "is this a dog turd or a pine cone?" is on like, expert/All Madden mode. 

 

Anyway here's y'all's beloved WeatherDoge update from 1am Tuesday morning. 

Screenshot_2023-01-10-01-00-19-797.jpg

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Late night check in:  46F here w/ a few clouds streaming in from the storm to our west..

After a wild day across the Central coast / parts of S. Cal, a lull in activity atm.. Next round should make landfall on the coast around the Bay Area sometime in the next 2-4 hours..
Watching this particular satellite view through the evening, Lightning density seems to have decreased a bit as the total system approaches the coast. Regardless, forecast for storms reaching the coast / moving over the Bay Area / Central Coast still looks good.. We'll see how vigorous the storms are as they hit the coastline though.. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of two outcomes: #1, activity wanes and storms are just wind and rain producers, or activity continues at the same levels, or ramp up a little more as it marches towards and past the coast.

Last 2 hour, 24 step loop. NOAA U.S. Pacific Coast Sector, Geostationary Satellite data + GLM lightning data product.
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Tomorrow, after the initial line moves through, could see more widespread storm activity inc. a non-zero chance of Waterspouts or weak Tornadoes  if   there is enough sun break-related heating..  This next piece of the storm should reach more areas of S. Cal. that really didn't see much activity today.

As for S. Cal, some impressive numbers from just this storm..

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Beyond today, ( now Tuesday ) next big storm looks to arrive on Sunday..  Guarantee there will be more flood-related issues.

Still seeing signs the tap may finally shut off sometime around the 20th, though there are model runs that keep the hose flowing into the later half of Jan. as well.. so, ..We'll see what happens..

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5 year high 42.2C/108F (07/06/2018)--5 year low 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)--Lowest recent/current winter: 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)

 

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Another 26c day

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5 year high 42.2C/108F (07/06/2018)--5 year low 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)--Lowest recent/current winter: 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)

 

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The high today in London was 52f/11c with 58% humidity. Very sunny today too but the sun still is very weak at this time of the year.

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8°C at 1:00 a.m.. Today's high was around 12°C. Balmy but breezy. Like the last couple of weeks. We had a lot of rain in the West of Germany. I would say exceptionally high precipitation even considering it's our wet season. There have already been some floodings in parts of my state (NRW). Next week it's supposed to get cold, maybe some snowfall, maybe even some frost. But the forecast is changeing every couple of hours, yet the radar clearly shows some cold air coming in from the British Isles, the upcoming Tuesday.

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Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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A nice evening after a really nice day across town and in Tucson... One more mild day on tap for tomorrow for both before we head into another cool / drippy spell for -at least-  the start of the week.

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4PM temps:

Chandler:

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Tucson:

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Aside from the storm(s) on tap for Sunday-Tuesday,  Suggest everyone here in the west keep a real close eye on the forecast later next week / week after.. 

While a fairly big pattern change is suggested for sometime around ..or shortly after... the 20th,  the beginning of that pattern change  could include the next chilly outbreak for CA and AZ, -and the rest of the region.. 

Been watching this closely all week and in some form or another, the GFS is intent on dragging some cold storms / air down the coast and thru the southwest -for now at least-  building  High pressure that should shut off the rain / shuffle cold more toward the Northern Plains can't decide whether or not it will set up closer to the west coast ( Would completely turn off the tap / scoot any colder air further east ), or more out in the Pacific itself, ...which would allow some degree of storminess and cold air to ride up and over the high and down the front of it, into the western / southwestern U.S.

Because run to run data from the GFS has been bouncing all over the place the last few days, ..and will likely continue flip flopping.. i don't totally trust what is currently suggested beyond about next Wednesday.

Regardless,  putting out a " Heads up" none the less,  just in case, ...Cuz' there could be some brushes with the frost / freeze monster lurking..  Maybe now that i have mentioned it, it will flip back to the mild-ish and dry look it had earlier.. 🙃

We'll see how this unfolds..



On the brighter side note, regardless of the forecast as we head toward the end of the month, Sunrises start getting earlier after this coming Thursday.. Tick Tock winter, Tick Tock..


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Overnight low 46.4F. At the moment it is 50.2F.

Predicted overnight Sun low: 40F. Monday morning low has dropped to 40F. Then a warmup of sorts to average Jan temps (50s/70s)

Got a 1/2” or rain yesterday. Always a good thing in dry season

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Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Another Saturday night, another GFS run that has tied on too many..   😂🤣🙃    ...50-something, waiting on the incoming rain atm.. Wet and borderline chilly week ahead.. and the next episode of "flirts with 32.."

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Yeaaah, that's Not gonna happen.. But go ahead and tempt me to play the lottery -if it did ( ..More likely to win a few hundred on a scratch off,  than to see actual snow here, in my yard )

**Circled area is the majority of metro PHX / Maricopa Co. ..below the foothills / nearby low elevation areas of Pinal Co. ( Casa Grande for example ) to the south.

Get some sleep GFS,  ...you need it..

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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I had 32-33f this morning and a lot of frost on rooftops.

I noticed a lot of local Wunderground readings were higher and not by a trivial amount. I think it might come down to siting problems… As you can see, my “Front” sensor only hit 39.9f but it’s against the south side of my house. 

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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The high today was 9c in London with 65% humidity. It was sunny all day but the UV is only a 0.7. Looking forward to march when the sun has some slight strength to it and is able to heat up the garden.

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Currently 59.9F at 2:25 p.m. Will it soar to 60F? At least there is little wind compared to yesterday. High yesterday reached only the upper-50s. Predicted high Monday: 69F after a low of 40F. Heat wave alert?

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Currently -0.9ºC, making this by far the coldest night (and first frost) in about 4 weeks.  Worryingly the overnight low is forecast to be -1 just before dawn, so it's concerning that we've already hit that before 6pm.  It's completely cloudless and I wouldn't be surprised if we go down to -4 or thereabouts if that doesn't change.  It's also the first really cold day of January, with a high of only 3.2C.

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Manchester, Lancashire, England

53.4ºN, 2.2ºW, 65m AMSL

Köppen climate Cfb | USDA hardiness zone 9a

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Still raining and only 5°C at 8 p.m. Today's high also only at 7°C. It's getting colder but also drier. We might get some frost the upcoming days. Maybe already tomorrow morning with a prediction of 0°C at the official airport weather station. Usually this means a couple of degrees warmer in my garden. But as we already had a bad cold spell in Decemeber I protected a lot of plants today. Even harider ones, just everything that has been damaged by the big freeze in December. 🥶

Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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1 hour ago, Ryland said:

Currently -0.9ºC, making this by far the coldest night (and first frost) in about 4 weeks.  Worryingly the overnight low is forecast to be -1 just before dawn, so it's concerning that we've already hit that before 6pm.  It's completely cloudless and I wouldn't be surprised if we go down to -4 or thereabouts if that doesn't change.  It's also the first really cold day of January, with a high of only 3.2C.

So the upcoming cold has already hit you huh? ... I hope it's not getting too bad this time. 😅

Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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The high today was 6c as we are having a cold spell. Looks like tonight's going to be the coldest night of 2023 it's already 36f and we have clear skies all night.  @UK_PalmsIt looks like a very cold/bad night where you are escpially after the December freeze

Screenshot_20230116-205452118 (1).jpg

Screenshot_20230116-205353907 (1).jpg

Edited by Foxpalms
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