Zone pushers - How do you define long-term hardiness?

[RedRabbit]

It occurred to me different people have different ideas about what "long-term" is for the viability of palms. If I were to plant a coconut palm here and we get a once in 10yr type of freeze it probably won't make it. I wouldn't plant one because of that, but it wouldn't deter some people. If I plant a queen palm and we get a once in a 100yr type of freeze it will probably die but that level of risk is perfectly acceptable. Going a step further, if I were to plant a sable palmetto there's zero risk... So, how do you define "long-term" exactly? 

 

I ask this because I've come up with an alternate system to USDA Zones, but knowing what people consider "long-term" on average is an important component.  

Edited May 14, 2016 by RedRabbit

[Palmaceae]

Very good question, I put in 30 years as if you look at past history it is usually a 30 year or so cycle when we see the bad freezes.

[junglegalfla]

I would just like to enjoy my palms until I'm dead. Hoping for wishful 40yrs, family history tells me otherwise, closer to 25-30ish yrs. Plant em' if you got em'

[palmsOrl]

I voted 20 years, but I'll plant a marginal palm (not rare and really expensive) as long as I can reasonably expect to get 5-10 years out of it (WITH protection).  The challenge and risk is part of the enjoyment of it for me.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

8 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

It occurred to me different people have different ideas about what "long-term" is for the viability of palms. If I were to plant a coconut palm here and we get a once in 10yr type of freeze it probably won't make it. I wouldn't plant one because of that, but it wouldn't deter some people. If I plant a queen palm and we get a once in a 100yr type of freeze it will probably die but that level of risk is perfectly acceptable. Going a step further, if I were to plant a sable palmetto there's zero risk... So, how do you define "long-term" exactly? 

 

I ask this because I've come up with an alternate system to USDA Zones, but knowing what people consider "long-term" on average is an important component.  

Hi Tiberius,

For those of us who are Zone Pushers when it comes to marginal palms in our areas, like coconut palms, I would say if they could grow for 10 to 15 years and even produce some viable nuts between coconut killing winters, then that would be my definition of long term viability, but for people who live in the RGV, long term viability for coconut palms would be 20+ years, and 30+ years for those growing coconut palms in the interior part of South Florida and along coastal areas of Central Florida.

John 

[cm05]

I normally think of it as zero risk, or at least near-zero risk. In my case, our worst winters aren't enough to kill an established Needle Palm or Sabal minor out right. I'd feel safe planting either one. Windmills are marginal, even an average winter can push them to their limits.

[palmsOrl]

Historically, the only "zero risk" palms for my area would be zone 8b (or colder) palms that do well here otherwise.  Though our lowest temperature on record is 18F, many/most zone 9a palms would survive that worst cast scenario with damage.

Today, the situation is different, with basically any zone 9(a/b) palm being bullet proof here and zone 10a palms making an appearance as long term survivors in many favorable areas and microclimates as well.  Below are non-exhaustive lists of palms in different hardiness categories for my location.

Bullet-proof palms for Orlando:  yawn

Sabal palmetto, Sabal minor (most Sabal species), Butia capitata, Acoelorrhaphe wrightii, Phoenix dactylifera/canariensis, some Chamaedorea species, Serenoa repens, Chamaerops humilis, Rhapis, Rhapidophyllum hystrix

Longterm survivors for Orlando:

Roystonea regia, Syagrus romanzoffiana (maybe bullet proof in our current climate), Ravenea rivularis, Wodyetia bifurcata, Phoenix roebellenii, Bismarckia, Pseudophoenix, Archontophoenix cunn. and possibly other less hardy Archontophoenix species

Marginal/Usually not long term for Orlando:

Cocos, Adonidia, Veitchia, Ptychosperma (exceptions), Licuala, Pritchardia, Areca, Pinanga, Hyophorbe, Cyrtostachys (though the hybrid survived its first winter unprotected spotless), Dictyosperma, Clinostigma

[RedRabbit]

23 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

Historically, the only "zero risk" palms for my area would be zone 8b (or colder) palms that do well here otherwise.  Though our lowest temperature on record is 18F, many/most zone 9a palms would survive that worst cast scenario with damage.

Today, the situation is different, with basically any zone 9(a/b) palm being bullet proof here and zone 10a palms making an appearance as long term survivors in many favorable areas and microclimates as well.  Below are non-exhaustive lists of palms in different hardiness categories for my location.

Bullet-proof palms for Orlando:  yawn

Sabal palmetto, Sabal minor (most Sabal species), Butia capitata, Acoelorrhaphe wrightii, Phoenix dactylifera/canariensis, some Chamaedorea species, Serenoa repens, Chamaerops humilis, Rhapis, Rhapidophyllum hystrix

Longterm survivors for Orlando:

Roystonea regia, Syagrus romanzoffiana (maybe bullet proof in our current climate), Ravenea rivularis, Wodyetia bifurcata, Phoenix roebellenii, Bismarckia, Pseudophoenix, Archontophoenix cunn. and possibly other less hardy Archontophoenix species

Marginal/Usually not long term for Orlando:

Cocos, Adonidia, Veitchia, Ptychosperma (exceptions), Licuala, Pritchardia, Areca, Pinanga, Hyophorbe, Cyrtostachys (though the hybrid survived its first winter unprotected spotless), Dictyosperma, Clinostigma

I said in the first post I'm working on a USDA alternate, I'll give you a little preview since I just happen to have a lot of data from Orlando Executive Airport... You said you considered 20yrs long-term, here's the likelihood of surviving 20yrs for some of the palms you mentioned based on OEA's climate:

Coconut- 4.1%

Royal- 90.4%

Queen- 100.0%

 

 

Thanks for all the replies so far, it is looking like I'll use 20yrs but keep the votes coming. :)

 

[palmsOrl]

I like it RedRabbit, those percentages look about right as far as the percent chance of each species surviving for 20 years in Orlando (based on the Executive Airport data).  Do you have daily data from the Airport and for how far back?  I have a website I use that has reliable data for the Exec. Airport going back to around 1987.  Before that the data is full of "holes".

As a side note, I want to do an informal study on whether the climate at the Orlando Executive Airport has been getting warmer, relative to that at the Orlando Int'l Airport and Sanford Orlando Airport.  I have noticed a pronounced warming trend in recent years and a resulting warm anomaly (often quite substantial for official sites so close together, at similar elevations and with a similar topographical setting) at the Executive Airport in recent years and would like to determine if this has always been present relative to the other stations, how much warmer does the aforementioned station averages than the others, and the rate of change (if there has been a significant change).  I may do this by taking the low on the coldest 15 nights of each year, getting an average of these 15 lows for each year at each station back as far as reliable data for all three goes, then seeing if the data indicates any interesting trends (or differences that have been fairly constant for the duration of the data period).

[Xenon]

Does long-term hardiness mean none of that particular species will be killed? Or does it mean that at least one example of that species will survive? Or some arbitrary value in between? 

 

[DoomsDave]

I voted for 30 years. A lot can happen in that time, including your kids grow up, and have kids of their own.

To really reach their full glory most palms especially large ones, need some time.

[palmsOrl]

Good question Jonathan. Perhaps it could mean the percent chance than greater than 50% of large, established palms of a certain species in a given locale will survive 20 years / 30 years (not die during that interval directly or indirectly from cold/freeze effects)?

[Josh-O]

I also voted 30 yrs.

what DD said  

[displaced_floridian]

On ‎5‎/‎14‎/‎2016‎ ‎11‎:‎39‎:‎43‎, RedRabbit said:

It occurred to me different people have different ideas about what "long-term" is for the viability of palms. If I were to plant a coconut palm here and we get a once in 10yr type of freeze it probably won't make it. I wouldn't plant one because of that, but it wouldn't deter some people. If I plant a queen palm and we get a once in a 100yr type of freeze it will probably die but that level of risk is perfectly acceptable. Going a step further, if I were to plant a sable palmetto there's zero risk... So, how do you define "long-term" exactly? 

 

I ask this because I've come up with an alternate system to USDA Zones, but knowing what people consider "long-term" on average is an important component.  

To me, long term hardiness means that the plant produces viable fruit, and can self-propagate without interventions by humans. The length of time varies with species.

[DoomsDave]

I concur with Josh concurring with me . . . .

Some of the large Dypsis will likely take 30 years to really make it (or not) here in the Land O'La La.

[palmsOrl]

Good question Jonathan. Perhaps it could mean the percent chance that greater than 50% of large, established palms of a certain species in a given locale will survive 20 years / 30 years (not die during that interval directly or indirectly from cold/freeze effects)?

Just to follow-up briefly on the topic of climate differences between the three local Orlando airports, I calculated the average of the 15 coldest days for the winter of 2015-2016:

KORL: 43.00F     KMCO: 39.73F   KSFB: 39.20F

[Pip]

It isn't always cold that kills plants in my climate. Drought is a bigger threat for my location. Prolonged cool growing conditions would be the next biggest issue followed by wind, hail then freeze.

[RedRabbit]

3 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

I like it RedRabbit, those percentages look about right as far as the percent chance of each species surviving for 20 years in Orlando (based on the Executive Airport data).  Do you have daily data from the Airport and for how far back?  I have a website I use that has reliable data for the Exec. Airport going back to around 1987.  Before that the data is full of "holes".

As a side note, I want to do an informal study on whether the climate at the Orlando Executive Airport has been getting warmer, relative to that at the Orlando Int'l Airport and Sanford Orlando Airport.  I have noticed a pronounced warming trend in recent years and a resulting warm anomaly (often quite substantial for official sites so close together, at similar elevations and with a similar topographical setting) at the Executive Airport in recent years and would like to determine if this has always been present relative to the other stations, how much warmer does the aforementioned station averages than the others, and the rate of change (if there has been a significant change).  I may do this by taking the low on the coldest 15 nights of each year, getting an average of these 15 lows for each year at each station back as far as reliable data for all three goes, then seeing if the data indicates any interesting trends (or differences that have been fairly constant for the duration of the data period).

Just annual data at the moment as I don't have an efficient means of capturing all the data I need yet. Wunderground has an API so I think I might look into that. Currently I only use data going back to 2000 since these are the most relevent years that incorporate a majority of Florida's urban growth. I may add some older data in too that is given a lower weighting, still haven't decided. 

3 hours ago, Xenon said:

Does long-term hardiness mean none of that particular species will be killed? Or does it mean that at least one example of that species will survive? Or some arbitrary value in between? 

 

I was just going with average... There is a lot of variation among palms even of the same species. Depending on the palm, I understand a lethal freeze for a foxtail might be 22 for some and 28 for others. If you just say 25 it is a reasonable estimate since it is never really going to be perfect. If you can establish a number like 25f then it is easy to do survival analysis.

Edited May 16, 2016 by RedRabbit

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

On ‎5‎/‎15‎/‎2016‎ ‎10‎:‎17‎:‎08‎, Xenon said:

Does long-term hardiness mean none of that particular species will be killed? Or does it mean that at least one example of that species will survive? Or some arbitrary value in between? 

 

Good question, Jonathon.  My two cents worth would be to say, the point at which at least 50 to 75% of mature palms of any given species could survive.

Edited May 17, 2016 by Mr. Coconut Palm