El Nino and Florida Winter

[Cocoa Beach Jason]

I read that generally Florida winters are cooler during an El Nino year. I also just heard that this might be the most intense El Nino ever. Are we doomed?

[Ed in Houston]

Statistically it looks like this for winter.

Ed in Houston

[PalmatierMeg]

I've been trying to research this coming winter, too. But all the press is devoted what may happen on the West Coast - and rightly so - but I would like to hear more than a faint whisper about FL's winter. Best info I've been able to glean is "wetter and cooler" than normal. Does cooler mean "less warm" or "cold/colder"? Wetter also means "cloudier" and, by extrapolation, "cooler." The map above indicates a split jet stream, so maybe the southern stream, if it holds on, will block Arctic fronts. Who says FL weather isn't nuanced?

[_Keith]

Long range forecast are fun and all that, and while they try, they don't even know if it will rain next week. And don't even start me on Hurricane forecast accuracy. Read it and have fun, but don't lose any sleep.

[Silas_Sancona]

  On 8/14/2015 at 12:52 AM, _Keith said:

Long range forecast are fun and all that, and while they try, they don't even know if it will rain next week. And don't even start me on Hurricane forecast accuracy. Read it and have fun, but don't lose any sleep.

Forecasts have been pretty spot on here the past several weeks, and in regards to the current state of this years hurricane season.

In regards to this year's​ ENSO, a head forecaster over on Weather Underground posted part 1 of 2 El Nino related updates. Have also been closely following other posters who relay frequently updated info regarding the latest observations for various signals used to help track what might lie ahead. There was also some info regarding the influence a strong El Nino has over Florida's Temps/ precip during the Fall to Spring timeframe.. Interesting stuff..

One thing that caught my attention was an update to the current AEI. It topped 4.20 sigma which is higher than 1997.. and may make a run at 4.50 sigma.. Something never before observed.. Can't wait to see how the next couple months of observations plays out.. Regardless of what lies ahead, it has already been a crazy summer across the globe.. Can't ignore that...

-Nathan​​

[Dave-Vero]

National Weather Service provided an update earlier today. NCEP

Some surf musings at Surfline.

The southern tier of the US should be wet. A good winter for Florida.

[gsytch]

If you believe the forecast map, and our arctic air comes from Canada, then El Nino's subtropical jet stream would block most fronts from sweeping down. The 1997 El Nino was incredibly wet and mild, kinda cloudy=ish.....it only takes one good arctic front though! I would say "less warm" rather than cold, but rains also keep night temps up and the Gulf warmer. As we get close, I hope the severe weather of 1997 stays away. The tornadoes that winter killed lots of people and the storms were deadly.

[displaced_floridian]

Statistically FL should be cooler and wetter. The likelihood of a severe freeze is low. Severe freezes are most likely in a neutral phase.

Here is a chart describing effects in the SE US (this has been posted here before):

Edited August 15, 2015 by displaced_floridian

[Ed in Houston]

Here is the forecast from weather nation TV for the winter of 2015-2016.

Ed in Houston

[Cocoa Beach Jason]

Great info. Cool, wet, but with less statistical chance of severe freeze. If it holds true I can live with it. I will take more cool over hard freeze anyday. But of course anything can happen.

[Alicehunter2000]

Cool/wet ....Come on P. sunkha!

[Alicehunter2000]

Cool/wet ....Come on P. sunkha!