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Strong El Niño forcasted for 2015-2016


Panamajack
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Hey everyone, Is anyone else a little concerned about this "very strong El Niño" for this coming winter? I've been reading it could eclipse the 1997-1998 disaster. If so, what are you doing to prepare your plats for potential flooding and high winds? All my palms are in clay, so I am a bit worried.

I hope that if we do get a strong El Niño, that at least the temperatures are warm. I mean, air masses coming from the Central American jungles? Sounds steamy.

Palos Verdes Estates - coastal Los Angeles - 33°45'N 118°24'W

On a cliff, 2 blocks from the Pacific Ocean. Zone 10b - Sunset zone 24

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El Ninos can be hard to predict. The first one that I recall in my life was 1983. I was in my early 20's then & California was locked in yet another "drought of the century". Even at that relatively young age, I remember listening to the experts saying that it would take umpteen years of ridiculous rain to make a dent in the drought. At the end of '82 it started raining in San Diego & basically kept raining regularly through May. I was working in Otay Mesa, where much of the flat areas turned into a giant marsh. There were frogs & tadpoles in places there was normally no water. Anyway, sometime in April, my friend & I are watching something on TV, when a breaking report comes in that the Governor has just declared an end to the drought. Every water storage thing in the Southwest was full, including Lake Powell. At least it stopped the experts from constantly bloviating on the subject. The coastal areas had a hard time of it, that much I remember. But the offshore fishing that Summer was spectacular. Sorry, I digress.

Bret

Bret

 

Coastal canyon area of San Diego

 

"In the shadow of the Cross"

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My father in law was saying the fishing this summer is incredible. Species that usually are caught much much farther south are available in SoCal waters.

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I had I guy this past weekend tell me that so cal will "FOR SURE" get a ton of rain this next winter. Not sure what his deal is but he was absolutely without a doubt "SURE" this will happen. He sounded so sure that I believed him. :) lol

I was just remembering the last time he had a good rainy season. Late 2010 to early 2011. We had just moved in to a three story apartment on the top floor and our living room windows faced the mountains. We enjoyed watching the dark rain clouds very much. On days after a good rain the half top of the mountains outside our living room windows would be covered in snow. It was awesome. I'm hoping for a nice rainy season. Hopefully without all the flooding too.

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Eclipse 1997-1998?? Whoa! That would be a tough feat at least here in Florida. That year brought 17 inches of rain officially (Tampa's airport) in December and then 20" two months later in February. I'm not saying it won't happen but think the winter forecast will be more believable as that time approaches.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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I think a lot of the armchair meteorologists are so gung-ho about how much rain SoCal is supposed to get based somewhat on how dry it has been and how much they're suffering. Much like a fan my telling you that next year the Browns are going take the superbowl...

That being said, the actual modeling from actual meteorologists/climatologists is looking with more and more certainty that 'something' is going to happen, and in a big way. The most likely result being a hellovan El Nino.

I just hope the short-term reprieve to the drought brought by the rain (and floods, and landslides, and general catastrophe) will not deter people from continuing to implement conservation of water plans. Even if the El Nino were big enough to fill all the reservoirs and magically heal the land, it still won't signal the end of the long-term drought that is currently gearing up for the next decade or two.

"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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You would know better Bret, I was in grammar school @ the time! How the h? are you? Call me sometime!

Wow. That was just mean Ron.

:)

Bret

 

Coastal canyon area of San Diego

 

"In the shadow of the Cross"

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No one can predict weather with certainty. Even an El Nino which we know quite a bit about, how and why they happen, can be fleeting. So generally I only care about the weather tomorrow. That being said, I will place a little extra erosion control measures prior to October.

Gary

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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El Niño good for us, but bad for others. I saw that in 97's El Niño that half of numerous species population on the Galopagos died off from starvation. In the almost 20 years since a lot more pressures have been put on these animals so another El Niño at 97s effects could be devastating for one of the most unique ecosystems in the world.

Len

Vista, CA (Zone 10a)

Shadowridge Area

"Show me your garden and I shall tell you what you are."

-- Alfred Austin

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I think a lot of the armchair meteorologists are so gung-ho about how much rain SoCal is supposed to get based somewhat on how dry it has been and how much they're suffering. Much like a fan my telling you that next year the Browns are going take the superbowl...

That being said, the actual modeling from actual meteorologists/climatologists is looking with more and more certainty that 'something' is going to happen, and in a big way. The most likely result being a hellovan El Nino.

I just hope the short-term reprieve to the drought brought by the rain (and floods, and landslides, and general catastrophe) will not deter people from continuing to implement conservation of water plans. Even if the El Nino were big enough to fill all the reservoirs and magically heal the land, it still won't signal the end of the long-term drought that is currently gearing up for the next decade or two.

Agreed. People seem to quickly forget yesterday's problems that will once again become tomorrow's problems if we don't change something today.
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this one is going to be a monster from the new evidence

remember - it goes both ways and there are folks who are "nay sayers"

who will automatically take a view point in opposition

Edited by trioderob
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this one is going to be a monster from the new evidence

remember - it goes both ways and there are folks who are "nay sayers"

who will automatically take a view point in opposition

What? A view in opposition to the weather?

...Weather...I'm against it!

El Nino is very bad news for eastern Australia, as it means drought, drought and more drought.

The last big el Nino delivered just over half our average rainfall here, which is low enough even in a good year.

So I say Nay to el Nino!

South Arm, Tasmania, Australia - 42° South

Mild oceanic climate, with coastal exposure.

 

Summer: 12°C (53°F) average min, to 21°C (70°F) average daily max. Up to 40°C (104°F max) rarely.

 

Winter: 6°C (43°F) average min, to 13°C (55°F) average daily max. Down to 0°C (32°F) occasionally, some light frost.

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Viva El Niño! Fishing is blowing up right now. Tuna with in kayakers reach and fish holding just 3 miles offshore. Marlin and dorado already here. I'm in love.

"it's not dead it's sleeping"

Santee ca, zone10a/9b

18 miles from the ocean

avg. winter 68/40.avg summer 88/64.records 113/25

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Viva El Niño! Fishing is blowing up right now. Tuna with in kayakers reach and fish holding just 3 miles offshore. Marlin and dorado already here. I'm in love.

That's what I keep hearing. I've seen some social media posts about some very tropical fish being caught up here.

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Viva El Niño! Fishing is blowing up right now. Tuna with in kayakers reach and fish holding just 3 miles offshore. Marlin and dorado already here. I'm in love.

That's what I keep hearing. I've seen some social media posts about some very tropical fish being caught up here.
Nothing out of the ordinary yet. We always get bluefin and yellowfin. Even opah arnt to rare. But normally this would be in late August or September. I'm excited to see what moves up in the next few months. Hoping for some wahoo!!!!

"it's not dead it's sleeping"

Santee ca, zone10a/9b

18 miles from the ocean

avg. winter 68/40.avg summer 88/64.records 113/25

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