Hurricanes Iselle and Julio on path toward Hawaii

[Al in Kona]

Hurricane Iselle is heading on a WNW path and expected to arrive at the Big Island starting Thursday 8-7-'14. It will be interesting to see if upon arrival this storm swerves either to the NW or SW around the Big Island as other hurricanes approaching the island have done in the past. From what I have read, that no hurricane has ever crossed directly over Hawaii island (the Big Island) since the weather bureau has been taking records. Of course, they tell us not to get complacent because they say there is no reason why it couldn't one day.

On the heels of hurricane Iselle is another tropical storm, "Julio", and gaining strength and also

heading in the very same trajectory that Iselle is doing.

Even if these "storms" do not cross directly over the Big Island, they could still cause problems with wind and rain as they edge by. Let's see what happens. Hopefully not too much damage will take place as it is expected to weaken down to a Category 1 storm by the time it arrives here.

[sur4z]

I hate the anticipation...a few years back we got hit on the head twice a couple weeks apart here in south florida...hopefully these two will veer so there is not a direct hit.

[DoomsDave]

I remember the reports about Iniki, I think.

Be careful, but at least Hawaii's mountainous so you won't get a tidal surge, a la NYC.

[PALM MOD]

This may be a chance for more mischievous members.

[tropicbreeze]

In the normal course of events Iselle wouldn't be a worry coming in from the east/south east, the real concern from a hurricane point of view would have been if it was coming from the south west. What could be problematic is Iselle has become an annular system which has the effect of shielding it from adverse environments. However, annular characteristics usually don't last long and the adverse conditions will then rapidly weaken it. In this event the big issue will become very heavy rain bringing flooding and mudslides. Julio on the other hand, if it tracks along Iselle's path, is doomed. But if it doesn't track along that path then it'll miss the islands.

[tropicbreeze]

Julio is tracking a little more to the north, clear of the islands. But Iselle is really stealing its thunder so it's not expected to strengthen a lot more before up to peak.

Iselle is still holding its own against some hostile conditions and still on track for Hawaii. Check the following sites out for some pretty impressive animated graphics. Note the dry air mass (yellow) around Iselle, but it can't seem penetrate it, one of the characteristics of annular cyclones.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09E/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-142.98,18.54,3000

[Alicehunter2000]

More wind at elevation

[sur4z]

There are actually 4 hurricanes in the Pacific now...here is a linc to 3 of them.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/flash-vis.html

[sur4z]

...and another link

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/

[Capnrey]

In the normal course of events Iselle wouldn't be a worry coming in from the east/south east, the real concern from a hurricane point of view would have been if it was coming from the south west.

I wish Hawaii well this year . . . I was in Iniki on Kauai back in '92. What a mess. That storm was CAT 4, but I can tell you everyone on that island swore to CAT 5 when it was making landfall on Kauai's southwest shore. I was employed with the Hyatt Hotel as a Scuba Instructor at the time. During the storm, I remember standing on the loading dock at the Hyatt in Poipu looking out at mayhem *for the first half*. The second half, after the eye passed, (it was a big eye) we were struggling to keep the loading dock doors from collapsing with 4x4's and 4X8 plywood sheets. Hotel staff had moved all the guests down into the subterranean halls from a banquet room only after 30 minutes into the storm due to the skylights showing stress. They broke open as the last few guests were out the door heading downstairs. The next day there were reports of 225+ MPH on Makaha Ridge, which solidified islander's claim of being a CAT 5, even though it was officially CAT 4. I stayed in Kauai for a full year after that, helping with recovery efforts through various avenues before moving over to Oahu.

Seems like the Pacific has started a little hurricane factory rolling through the central pacific this year. Hopefully, Iselle will be it. It is still only early August. Julio doesn't look to be too bad for the islands Let us know how you guys fare out there when you can.

Edited August 7, 2014 by Mantarey

[Justin]

Julio is tracking a little more to the north, clear of the islands. But Iselle is really stealing its thunder so it's not expected to strengthen a lot more before up to peak.

Iselle is still holding its own against some hostile conditions and still on track for Hawaii. Check the following sites out for some pretty impressive animated graphics. Note the dry air mass (yellow) around Iselle, but it can't seem penetrate it, one of the characteristics of annular cyclones.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09E/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-142.98,18.54,3000

Cool images! Thanks for sharing. I have some Jalousie windows that probably aren't the best for winds of this force, but thankfully they are on the east, south, and west, and not the north. It looks like Puna is going to get the major wind from the north to northeast.

[_Keith]

Good luck, Al. It'll be fine.

[tropicbreeze]

Iselle has now weakened to a tropical storm, but at about 60 knots can still do a lot of damage. Looks like it will clip the south west of the island.

Julio is tracking further north and should clear the islands by a good margin.

I have to keep reminding myself that your cyclones go backwards (compared to ours), but that means the strongest winds will be to the north of the system. This is due to the forward speed of the system plus the circular speed of the system. South of it it's the reverse, the forward speed of the system partially counters the circular speed so the wind is lessened. Not sure what the effects of topography will be on it though.

[Al in Kona]

With all the news about Hurricane Iselle hitting the Big Island of Hawaii and expected to affect the whole island with damaging winds and heavy rainfall, it was surprising to note that most of Kona (West Hawaii) was calm and no to little rainfall. As soon as the hurricane made landfall on East Hawaii it lost much of its punch, some of it was diverted northwestward to affect Maui and the main part went on a more southerly path thru the Ka`u district and as a result Mauna Loa (means long mountain) shielded the Kona area from the storm. Can't say that these super tall mountains we have don't play an important part in directing or at least affecting even a powerful hurricane or tropical storm as it approaches the Big Island.

[tropicbreeze]

Mountains do affect cyclones, but it's very variable. On some slopes it accelerates winds, whilst on others wind is lessened. But overall, the mountains are immovable, cyclones are "malleable". We had the situation last season when Ita was heading this way it passed Papua New Guinea and was hampered in its development by the high mountain ranges. But this was a huge mountain range rather than isolated peaks so the effect was very significant. Once it got clear of the island it rapidly intensified.

[_Keith]

With all the news about Hurricane Iselle hitting the Big Island of Hawaii and expected to affect the whole island with damaging winds and heavy rainfall, it was surprising to note that most of Kona (West Hawaii) was calm and no to little rainfall. As soon as the hurricane made landfall on East Hawaii it lost much of its punch, some of it was diverted northwestward to affect Maui and the main part went on a more southerly path thru the Ka`u district and as a result Mauna Loa (means long mountain) shielded the Kona area from the storm. Can't say that these super tall mountains we have don't play an important part in directing or at least affecting even a powerful hurricane or tropical storm as it approaches the Big Island.

Even here in the flatland, hurricanes start losing punch rapidly as they move onshore. And as they march across the Caribbean towards us we love it when they hit the islands with higher peaks that knock down their strength rapidly. Many times they do not recover and arrive here weaker. That does not mean they can't create plenty of havoc, just not as much.