January 2014 Stock Talk

[tank]

2014 is definitely starting off flat for me . Folks just taking profits? Anyone buy a gallon of milk through Amazon.com yet? Happy New Year.

[Bags]

Tank,

Although I have never owned Amazon stock, I think it is one of those companies like Google that is going to be a huge part of our everyday lives for a very long time. We buy almost everything on Amazon from diapers to dog food and could not be happier with the company. I have no idea if the stock is a good value at a 1500 price to earnings ratio, but It seems like a buy and hold forever stock to me.

[tank]

Tank,

Although I have never owned Amazon stock, I think it is one of those companies like Google that is going to be a huge part of our everyday lives for a very long time. We buy almost everything on Amazon from diapers to dog food and could not be happier with the company. I have no idea if the stock is a good value at a 1500 price to earnings ratio, but It seems like a buy and hold forever stock to me.

I agree. A dividend would be nice.

[Dypsisdean]

Yep - Amazon is a Godsend here in Hawaii with the free two day shipping that Amazon Prime offers - but I'm not benefiting from the stock. And it will be a while before I'll be getting drone deliveries where I live.

I don't know about a dividend - unfortunately you need income to support a dividend - and I don't think they have enough, do they?

[redant]

Amazon is an interesting business model, sell everything in the world, make no money doing it (or lose money) and the world buys your stock like hotcakes. I buy plenty on Amazon but the stock just is not something I can understand so I keep away.

[spockvr6]

Is there going to be a 2014 version of the Wallstreetsurvivor game?

I am itching to randomly pick 10 more garbagy stocks!

[Bags]

I just created a new league for those interested it is palmtalk 2 at wallstreetsurvivor.com and will run till the end of the year. Anyone can join. Even Rob.

[PALM MOD]

Thanks Aaron - I think I'll join in again.

I can't understand why Rob doesn't want to join the fun - its just a game.

How about some others out there?

[tank]

I'll play again

[redant]

PLUG seems to be resurrecting from the dead, this is one I took a beating on many years ago. Maybe their time has come.

[trioderob]

life is crazy.

Schumacher is a billionaire and maybe the greatest race car driver who ever lived.

yet you would not find a single person who would trade places with him today.

[sur4z]

what is the link to the game?

[tank]

what is the link to the game?

http://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/

[tank]

PLUG seems to be resurrecting from the dead, this is one I took a beating on many years ago. Maybe their time has come.

I think I may have to pay you a commission on this one. Now you just need to let me know I should exit

[tank]

Also,

Not for the faint of heart, but interesting given the current trend in legalizing mary jane. GRNH

[trioderob]

Dean-

please tell me your feelings about the general US stock markets at this moment in time.

[redant]

Talk about reefer madness, look at CBDS.

So you took a position in PLUG? huge move today as well. I'd be out today, to massive a move in to short of a time.

[tank]

I took a small position on PLUG after reading up on it. Wish I had taken a larger position.... Thanks for the tip. Will keep an eye on it tonight and tomorrow.

[Dypsisdean]

Dean-

please tell me your feelings about the general US stock markets at this moment in time.

I think it has gotten a little ahead of itself, and needs a rest before it can head higher and stay there. And that "rest" will be a correction either by price or by time. A drop to around the 50 day at 16,000 would not surprise me, and would be welcome. But if we have a run toward 17,000 in the first quarter, without such a "rest," I will be hedging with some index puts.

The only thing that worries me is too many people are on the correction train, and looking to buy any dip - so I am still fully invested and just collecting dividends - but will get worried if things get too bullish here. I like what looks like the beginning of a consolidation here.

[tank]

Dean-

please tell me your feelings about the general US stock markets at this moment in time.

I think it has gotten a little ahead of itself, and needs a rest before it can head higher and stay there. And that "rest" will be a correction either by price or by time. A drop to around the 50 day at 16,000 would not surprise me, and would be welcome. But if we have a run toward 17,000 in the first quarter, without such a "rest," I will be hedging with some index puts.

The only thing that worries me is too many people are on the correction train, and looking to buy any dip - so I am still fully invested and just collecting dividends - but will get worried if things get too bullish here. I like what looks like the beginning of a consolidation here.

I get the same "feeling", but I wonder if its just because we're entering unknown territory and everyone is expecting a correction.... just because.

[redant]

But as I have said before, money always needs a place to go and I just don't know what other options money has other then equities. I have been slowly building up a position in TBT, each time it goes against me I have been adding more. I just don't see that holding this position over 2014 can loose unless the economy starts to fail.

Nice job holding onto plug, Now up about 767% since early Nov. I never could get my head around momentum moves like this.

[spockvr6]

I entered the fray with another round of pure random stock picks. I tried to go 10 x 10%, but the game wouldnt let me so the first 5 allocations are ~10% each, then the balance of the ~$100k is made up of mostly 5% positions. Ill let these ride without touching them all year and see what happens.

[redant]

I entered the fray with another round of pure random stock picks. I tried to go 10 x 10%, but the game wouldnt let me so the first 5 allocations are ~10% each, then the balance of the ~$100k is made up of mostly 5% positions. Ill let these ride without touching them all year and see what happens.

Nice to have a control group in the experiment.

[trioderob]

SELL SELL SELL

[redant]

SELL SELL SELL

A stock thread would not be complete without that,

[spockvr6]

I entered the fray with another round of pure random stock picks. I tried to go 10 x 10%, but the game wouldnt let me so the first 5 allocations are ~10% each, then the balance of the ~$100k is made up of mostly 5% positions. Ill let these ride without touching them all year and see what happens.

Nice to have a control group in the experiment.

Here is the 2014 version of LRGIX.

Oddly enough, PRAN (the big 2013 winner) made it again! I used the random stocker picker in the game and this one happened to come back up again.

[spockvr6]

SELL SELL SELL

A stock thread would not be complete without that,

And, to make the whole system work, someone else has to be yelling BUY BUY BUY

[trioderob]

you guys have strong feelings - I have data

I bring real information which is of the utmost in importance

read and learn :

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20131218.htm

Edited January 8, 2014 by trioderob

[spockvr6]

you guys have strong feelings

I bring real information which is of the utmost in importance

read and learn :

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20131218.htm

Play the game

[trioderob]

game ?

I would just like to get the actual bet right.

mixed signals

fed will taper as they see the market overheating based on the feeling that they have placed a backstop on the market.

generally improving conditions

housing prices that have reacted very poorly to the 30 year going up

emerging markets doing poorly

tricky market right here - everything is in the minutes i just posted.

even the reaction to the minutes looks to me like a market that is trying to digest the news.

Deans PREDICTION sounds logical but on the other hand as he himself indicated its what every tom dick and harry would guess also - so it will not happen.

the market seems to cry for 3 weeks every time there is some kind of new taper info.

Edited January 8, 2014 by trioderob

[spockvr6]

game ?

www.wallstreetsurvivor.com - Palmtalk2

[Dypsisdean]

Rob - you are going to lose any remaining credibility you have left with me if you are not even willing to take a imaginary position, and assume accountability for the actual timing of your calls. And on another note - sometimes the consensus does end up being correct - but it's the timing that makes or breaks any position.

Doug - I am with you as to the importance of where the money has to flow - in the longer term. I am only cautious here in the short to intermediate term. But since I can't time (except maybe at extremes), I'm hanging long - but not complacent - and trying to accumulate some "dry powder" - just in case.

[redant]

Rob - you are going to lose any remaining credibility you have left with me if you are not even willing to take a imaginary position, and assume accountability for the actual timing of your calls. And on another note - sometimes the consensus does end up being correct - but it's the timing that makes or breaks any position.

Doug - I am with you as to the importance of where the money has to flow - in the longer term. I am only cautious here in the short to intermediate term. But since I can't time (except maybe at extremes), I'm hanging long - but not complacent - and trying to accumulate some "dry powder" - just in case.

I always keep some dry powder, you never know when something might come available on the cheap. But I'm in the same ballpark, guessing the market will be up 15 to 20% this year but also a 5 to 10 % correction along the way.

So Rob, where does the money go?

Edited January 8, 2014 by redant

[trioderob]

Dean-

I think the next 5 days are the tell.

everything is on the table right here.

Europe is not going down the drain.

Housing sales will slow with higher rates.

US economy is now 6 years past the bottom which is a historical average to get out of a mess like this.

Budget deadlines and limits have been worked out.

seems like there are NO unknowns right now.

biggest issue is personal incomes need to come up.

I have been out for 2 days now and watching after having a great 2013.

seems like the sell off is right here and now.

when guys like you are thinking there might be a sell off coming i want to be one step ahead of you

just like when it flips and you are talking about that it might be a good time to buy.

i will have already been in a week.

redant-

where does the money go ?

anything of quality

watch the Chinese -what are they buying here ?

that's what you want to buy too

buy yourself a very nice high rise condo with bay view in san diego/ san fran/

Edited January 8, 2014 by trioderob

[spockvr6]

seems like there are NO unknowns right now.

Then play the WallstreetSurvivor game and put all this information to practical use

[redant]

Dean-

I think the next 5 days are the tell.

everything is on the table right here.

Europe is not going down the drain.

Housing sales will slow with higher rates.

US economy is now 6 years past the bottom which is a historical average to get out of a mess like this.

Budget deadlines and limits have been worked out.

seems like there are NO unknowns right now.

biggest issue is personal incomes need to come up.

I have been out for 2 days now and watching after having a great 2013.

seems like the sell off is right here and now.

when guys like you are thinking there might be a sell off coming i want to be one step ahead of you

just like when it flips and you are talking about that it might be a good time to buy.

i will have already been in a week.

redant-

where does the money go ?

anything of quality

watch the Chinese -what are they buying here ?

that's what you want to buy too

buy yourself a very nice high rise condo with bay view in san diego/ san fran/

Already have one with a nice view of the atlantic, want to buy it.. Not nearly as good of an investment as the single family homes I bought for investment.

[Dypsisdean]

seems like there are NO unknowns right now.

There are always unknowns.

[tank]

Bummer in the Wallstreetsurvivor game that you can't short under $5. PLUG would be a great short.... Mr. Redant called it

[redant]

Bummer in the Wallstreetsurvivor game that you can't short under $5. PLUG would be a great short.... Mr. Redant called it

I was trying to for real yesterday but when I ran into problems with the platform attempting to do so I took it as an omen to leave it alone.

Edited January 9, 2014 by redant

[redant]

The sounds of crickets.

You on the wrong side of Tesla in the game Dean?

Is anyone home?