winter outlook for Central Florida ?????

[mike-coral gables]

Has anyone done any research for what to expect this winter in Central Florida? If so, please advise, thanks

[Mandrew968]

Hopefully a lot of Indian summers! How are you doing Mike? Hope all your palms are doing great and enjoying the waterfront view.

[Jason in Orlando]

It's supposed to be a moderate El Nino winter I think. Usually that means cooler and wetter, but not necessarily cold. Bad for coconuts, good for kentias.

Jason

[gsytch]

The CPC is calling for above normal precip with below normal temps, beginning in Dec and lasting into feb with spring seeing rising temps and above normal precip. It appears they are expecting Pacific fronts to come through, rather than Canadian. Of course this is just a pattern and guess from them. I am awaiting for other reports.

[mike-coral gables]

Found this today....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/mlb/pdfs/Florida_Dry_Season_Forecast.pdf

[gsytch]

It appears like there is a lot of uncertainty. This should be interesting, but the one pattern consistent through all forecasts is above normal rainfall. That would be very nice for a change.

[SubTropicRay]

Remember the last El Nino....ugh. Let's hope we can stay out of the 20's and avoid a 11 day stretch of frigid weather this time.

[gsytch]

Remember the last El Nino....ugh. Let's hope we can stay out of the 20's and avoid a 11 day stretch of frigid weather this time.

Shhhhh....lets not go there!!!

[displaced_floridian]

As of Oct 11th the El Nino appears to be fading out. It looks like it will be a 'neutral' year. Here is a table showing the likely effects on FL:

[mike-coral gables]

Umm, after reading the text on the bottom of the chart, "neutral" doesn't sound too reassuring....

[SubTropicRay]

A "neutral" winter can be very bad.

The sentence below is a forecast that's always relevent for a Florida winter.

"Generally mild with a few intrusions of colder northern air".

[gsytch]

I also believe last winter's prediction 3 months out was quite similar. Anyone check that? It turned out to be incredibly warm, as we know. Two cold fronts of significance, one lasting two days the other one day.

[Dave-Vero]

Looks like a cool first half of December for Florida. Rest of the US, warm.

[Jason in Orlando]

This is today's long-range forecast from Accu Weather for Orlando:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/orlando-fl/32819/december-weather/14177_pc

Specific forecast temps more than about five days out are virtually worthless, but what I think is noticeable here is that there are no days that are forecast to be much below normal, and the only days forecast for the upper 60s don't come until Christmas. I only put some stock into their long range forecasts because they correctly forecast a major cold outbreak in Jan. 2010 about two weeks before the event (I was stuck up in PA for the time and was watching in horror for two weeks...). Will certainly be interesting to see how they do this year.

[gsytch]

I only look for trends myself, and nothing says freeze for the next few weeks. Or even cold. Just avg to slightly above avg but we need RAIN BADLY. I am watering palms now. The fronds are drooping. Even my Norfolk is showing stress. :-))

[SubTropicRay]

The forecast 3 weeks out (Christmas) is useless. It fluctuates everyday which tells me they have no idea. If they get something right 2-3 weeks out, they've gotten lucky.

[tank]

Long range forecasts are always worthless. The forecasters high-five when they are right and find a convenient explanation when they are wrong. I was actually hoping for a weak El Nino this year, just for the extra rain. So far the pattern appears to be the opposite of what they originally forecasted. No rain of note in North Florida for the past two months and none in the que for the next two weeks. Dry and warmer than usual so far. Everything is looking incredibly stressed.

[gsytch]

They were originally prediciting above average rainfall. I have a TOTAL of .4" (4/10") in two months which happened on one day for three hours. Absolutely bone dry. It will be a month since a drop has fallen tomorrow, and nine weeks since the last significant rainfall. There is little to no snow cover way up north, and no cold settling down beyond normal. Scary! The warmth is nice though. For now.