January thread

[ruskinPalms]

Larry, about your theory, I think the "accuracy" of just forcasting the long term averages for a particular day would certainly be on par with hard thought our computer and human generated forcasts - mathematically speaking for a given period; but you are correct that they would look like geniuses at times, morons other times, and just tolerable most of the time.....Just like now!

[gsn]

(Ray @ Tampa,Jan. 11 2007,21:39)

QUOTE

Scott,

Check back tomorrow.  They flip flop like crazy.  It's not accurate outside of the 4-5 day time frame.

Ray

Ray,

It wasn't the fact that it isn't accurate that far out.

It was the fact that rather than even guessing, they just posted the same forecast for day 11 thru 15!!! ???

Yeah let's see 70 sounds good for a high,52 for a low...yeah that's the ticket!! The GFS model must be on a LOOP, and it got STUCK!  :laugh:  

What's the point of even having the 15 day forecast, if the last 5 days  of the forecast are the same!

[happ]

Here's the latest scoop & the bad news for inland gardens/groves  This outbreak could be very damaging to tenden palms/plants even close to the ocean.

Current readings @ 9:00PM Pacific

Seattle : 24F/-4.4c

Portland : 32F/0c

San Francisco : 44F/6.6c

Los Angeles : 56F/13.3c

San Diego : 53F/11.9c

Extreme Cali Cold Endangers Citrus

Ken Clark/AccuWeather meteorologist // Thursday, January 11, 2007

If you read my column yesterday a lot of what is contained in todays report is a repeat, but with some new information for all.

The coldest air in some time is marching south from the Northwest and will spread across California tonight through Saturday. An upper level storm moving into northern California Thursday evening moves south to near Yosemite by Friday morning, then to near Vegas by Friday evening. As stated yesterday, this storm is fairly moisture starved, though it can bring snow flakes to some unusual places. It is very possible that a few snow flakes are seen along the valley floor in the Central Valley late Thursday night and early Friday. Snow showers are likely in the southern California mountains Friday down to 1,500 to 2,000 feet. A showers will occur in portions of the low elevations of southern California as well. It is very possible a snow shower occurs in the upper deserts also.

But the bigger story is the cold. From the coastal inland valleys of central California to the entire Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley a hard freeze occurs Friday night and Saturday night with record, or near-record, cold in many places. The coldest spots, even the cental California coastal valleys, will drop to near 20 both nights with a few places dipping into the upper teens.

The coldest weather in southern California occurs Saturday night when many valley locations drop to, and below, freezing with the colder valleys also having a hard freeze with temperatures below 28. The Coachella Valley, the farm rich area of the lower deserts, are also likely to have a hard freeze Saturday night with lows between 20 and 24.

There is great concern for the citrus industry from central to southern California with this cold wave. There are reports that the orange crop in the San Joaquin Valley may be able to take the colder weather better than other crops because earlier cold snaps have thickened the skins and increased the sugar content. The biggest concern that some growers have passed on to me is for the younger orange trees being damaged. Most vulnerable citrus is the lemon crop. This is due to the lower sugar content they have.

As I stated yesterday, if you have pets that usually spend their nights out of doors, please take them inside during this cold wave. If you are in an area that will be experiencing temperatures well below freezing, take precautions against exposed water pipes freezing.

More on the cold and it effects tomorrow.

[ZoneTenNut]

65.2F with 76% humidity at 7:35AM. Nice ESE breeze coming in off the ocean this morning. Forecast 77F for the High. 5 day forecast puts every day in the 77-80F range, so the abnormally warm conditions this winter continue to hold out. I can only think of one 3 or 4 day cold snap period this winter, where I turned the air off! Not complaining though, as I'd rather pay a little higher electric bill than normal, for winter, and have these great extended growing temps.

With all this nice weather lately, been really getting the spring fertilizing bug. I typically don't do this until the end of Feb. Am I crazy? Should I roll the dice and just go for it?

[SunnyFl]

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 11 2007,09:43)

QUOTE

And the Florida Climate Center's associated cold hardiness map---

Awww-right!  And there we are, in Zone 10.

Actually, we've had a few Zone 11 winters (confirmed in a discussion with our co. extension agent), which I hope this will be one of!  Thanks for posting the map, Larry - that may come in very handy.  I do not, not, NOT want to move into zone 9 or worse.

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 12 2007,07:33)

QUOTE

With all this nice weather lately, been really getting the spring fertilizing bug. I typically don't do this until the end of Feb. Am I crazy? Should I roll the dice and just go for it?

If your temps are averaging around 60 or better, you probably should.  Then, if some nasty cold wx happens, the ferts will help the palms pull through.

[BobbyinNY]

This is one SCARY Map.......

[SunnyFl]

Ack!  I almost choked when I saw that 59F over St. Pete!  Then I checked NWS for my neighborhood.  Fortunately, that's the overnight low for tonight, with a high of 77 today and 78 tomorrow.  :::big sigh of relief:::

UNfortunately, I'm not home to enjoy it.

Looks as if Long Island is seeing much colder temps - toldja in the other thread, Bobby, move to St. Pete

[BobbyinNY]

Looks as if Long Island is seeing much colder temps - toldja in the other thread, Bobby, move to St. Pete  

Yeah, not too bad... 40's this morning going up to mid 50's by the afternoon... Nothing like those sub-zero temps in the middle of the country. I just hope that arctic air fizzles out before it comes east

[BobbyinNY]

How would anyone like this for a forecast.......

INTERNATIONAL FALLS, Minnesota..

Today

Jan 12  Partly Cloudy

0°/-12° 20%  

 0°F

Sat

Jan 13  Sunny

13°/-9° 10%  

 13°F

Sun

Jan 14  Partly Cloudy

6°/-7° 10%  

 6°F

Mon

Jan 15  Partly Cloudy

5°/-6° 10%  

 5°F

Tue

Jan 16  Few Snow Showers

6°/-4°

[NBTX11]

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 11 2007,09:42)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 11 2007,06:51)

QUOTE

There are a likely a few reasons, but primarily, I would say the warm gulf stream and the trade winds. The warm gulf stream runs right along the coast over here and the trade winds come from the SE, so the air gets warmed up before coming on shore.

Heres another good map from the Florida Climate Center which hints at the usual flow----

Where can I get of these maps for TX.  I am betting there are a lot of locations that get over 200 days of 85F weather here.

[ruskinPalms]

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 12 2007,07:33)

QUOTE

65.2F with 76% humidity at 7:35AM. Nice ESE breeze coming in off the ocean this morning. Forecast 77F for the High. 5 day forecast puts every day in the 77-80F range, so the abnormally warm conditions this winter continue to hold out. I can only think of one 3 or 4 day cold snap period this winter, where I turned the air off! Not complaining though, as I'd rather pay a little higher electric bill than normal, for winter, and have these great extended growing temps.

With all this nice weather lately, been really getting the spring fertilizing bug. I typically don't do this until the end of Feb. Am I crazy? Should I roll the dice and just go for it?

I have fertilized twice this winter due to the warmth. Everything has grown well this winter and has seemed to appreciate the fertilizer with no ill effects so far. Can't some of the components of these fertilizers actuallly increase resistance to freezes anyway?

[ZoneTenNut]

You know, I've always throttled back on fertilizing during the winter, so as not to encourage tender new growth, but maybe I've been doing my palms a disservice. I do some light fertilizing here and there, during the cooler months, but save my first heavy growing season one till the end of Feb.  Hmmmmm!

[SubTropicRay]

The Accuweather numbers are back down today.

[ZoneTenNut]

66.4F 77% humidity at 6:03AM. Looks to be another beautiful sunny day here.

[Exotic Life]

Slik! Not i nice map for the most of the guys, -17F that must be cold!!!!!!!!!!

[spockvr6]

60.1F here at 650AM with an overnight low of 57.9F reached at 324AM.

As noted by Zone10......another beautiful day (a string of them hopefully) is on store with temps forecast to be 78-82 for the next 4 days (depending on which forecast is to be believed).   The jury is still out after that.

[galveston1602]

did this threads title change?

If not it should.

I propose

Rub it in that Floridas climate is far superior to the rest of ours this year!

 

[spockvr6]

(galveston1602 @ Jan. 13 2007,08:54)

QUOTE

I propose

Rub it in that Floridas climate is far superior to the rest of ours this year!

 

Ill wait about another month before declaring that

[Kathy]

(galveston1602 @ Jan. 13 2007,08:54)

QUOTE

did this threads title change?

If not it should.

I propose

Rub it in that Floridas climate is far superior to the rest of ours this year!

 

:laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh:

[gsn]

I'm with Larry on NOT describing florida's climate as superior this year! As a matter of fact I might wait another 2 months,some strange things have happened in late Febuary,March!

All it takes is 1 or 2 nights to  turn a HERO into a ZERO! We are by no means out of the proverbial winter woods yet!!! ::

What starts in the WEST usually comes EAST,just depends on how much it is modified (degraded) before it gets here. ???

[SubTropicRay]

It's gonna get colder here sooner or later.

[ZoneTenNut]

Lets hope much later, as in next year, cause spring has sprung in a major way here. Everything is blooming and budding out!   ???

[ruskinPalms]

I am keeping my fingers crossed that this one loses some of its piss and vinegar before it makes to Florida. Next 10 days according to weather.com.

[SubTropicRay]

Bill,

I've noticed Weather Channel's numbers are more consistent with the NWS.  The cold front for late week is now supposed to stall out over north Florida.

Ray

[ZoneTenNut]

Considering what is happening on the west coast right now, I feel a little guilty posting my temps this morning. I'm also feeling really fortunate though. Hope any losses over there are minimal.

70.0F 77% RH at 5:55AM

[Exotic Life]

Wow i have check the weather forecast for the next 5 day's, that are very nice tempeture's, but we get only got raining weather Today and monday it's colder but also sunny.

Normal average

Daytempeture: 5C/41F

Nighttempeture: 0C/32F

Monday 15-01

Day: 9C/48.2F

Night: 4C/39.2F

Tuesday 15-01

Day: 9C/48.2F

Night: 6C/42.8F

Wednesday 16-01

Day: 13C/55.4F

Nacht: 8C/46.4F

Thursday: 17-01

Day: 16C/60.8F

Night: 11C/ 51.8F

But at this day maybe we get a huge storm again, but that's not for sure, the don't know where he's going .... So we will see But if he comes he will be stronger then the last 2 storms ...

Friday 19-01

Day: 14C/57.2F

Night: 11C/51.8F

Robbin

[amazondk]

I am sorry to hear about the cold spell over in So Cal.  Around here it is raining a lot and the daytime temperatures often stay below 90 F.  What really never changes is the night time temperatures, pretty much always between 72 and 74 F.  

[ZoneTenNut]

Don,

What is your average rainfall there?

[amazondk]

Our average rainfall is 2000 mm, which I think is about 80 inches.  The wettest months of the year are normally from December to May.

dk

[ZoneTenNut]

63.9F  85% humidity this morning at 5:32AM. On our way to another 82F day today, so the unusually warm winter continues to hold out.

My first Gardenia flower opened yesterday and I have no less than four stalks of bananas pushed out in the last 3-4 wks. Its an early spring everywhere you look here. Sure hope we don't get a cold snap.

[SubTropicRay]

Roger,

Another 4 weeks and the real danger subsides considerably.  We are almost there.

Ray

[ZoneTenNut]

Ray,

Maybe, just maybe, we're going to squeek by without a real wnter this year.  

Roger

[ZoneTenNut]

64.3F 88% RH at 6:25AM  On our way to anotherr 81F day.

[Exotic Life]

Yesterday was a very nasty day, we have got a big storm ... the have confirmed already 6 deads in the Netherlands and 30 people in europa ... other country's ...

I have uploaded some storm/damage pics here:

http://palmtalk.org/cgi-bin/forum/ikonboar...=ST;f=10;t=3148

Today it's sunny, but still a little windy and dry and still very mild ...!

Robbin

[ZoneTenNut]

Was a little cooler here yesterday with about 61F for the low in the morning and 76F for the high. There was a stiff NNE wind, which brought drier air and was a beautiful clear day, with just a few clouds. Currently 61.4F at 7:49AM with 88% RH. Forecast to be 79F today as a stiff SE wind kicks in and brings warm humid air from the tropics. Also bringing in some possible rain along with it, which we could really really use. Water tables are low and most ponds/lakes in my neighborhood, are down quite a few feet.

[happ]

WxAmerica 1-21-07

But this much appears likely: widespread cold air across much of the nation excepting the FL Peninsula. This siege of cA type temperatures will prove troublesome for the Southwest, already suffering crop losses from record low readings. And with some suppression of the infamous heat ridge over the Greater Antilles (which is still there, and likely to be present at the end of the medium range), odds would favor a significant winter storm progressing through the Deep South and intensifying along or east of the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

Can anyone image another arctic plunge into the nation?  

[amazondk]

We have been having a lot of rainy season activity.  The percipitation for the month is above average and should continue to stay that way.

Here is how it looked down by the Negro River around noon today.

Sunday, January 21, 2007 [ English | Metric ]

AccuWeather.com Quick Look

Days 1-5 Days 6-10 Days 10-15 Weekends All 15 Days

Currently At 8:24PM

Mostly Clear

82°F

RealFeel®

87°F

Winds: NNE

at 3mph

Mostly Clear

Humidity: 73%

Dew Point: 73° F

Pressure: 29.80 in

Visibility: 4 Miles

Tomorrow T-Storms

High: 88°F

RealFeel®: 91°F

Sunrise: 6:04 AM

Tonight T-Storms

Low: 74°F

RealFeel®: 81°F

Sunset: 6:19 PM

This cold spell is killing me.

dk

[ZoneTenNut]

(amazondk @ Jan. 21 2007,18:22)

QUOTE

This cold spell is killing me.

dk

Geez Don, hope you got a fireplace.  

What I wouldn't give for a nice raincloud like that right now.

Roger

[amazondk]

Roger,

Well a fireplace I don't have, but I did get the BBQ going.

dk

[Neofolis]

We have five days of below average temperatures starting today with freezes predicted each night, before it warms up again on Saturday.  This will be a bit of a shock after the recent extremely mild weather, but I think there is still a good chance of January being a record month for temperature.