Look Out Florida, Its Coming Again II

[_Keith]

Well, I'm not sure if this is heading your way, but after the cold left a couple days ago, we now have thunderstorms, a flash flood warning, and a tornado warning. Now having those things is not all that unusual down here, but thunderstorms and tornados in late December/early January is darned unusual. Hope you miss it, but the red warning flags are up.

[war_eagle]

I got 3.7 inches of rain today just south of Houston. Along with a lot of thunder, lightning, and wind. Temp stayed right around 60 all night last night and day today.

[_Keith]

I figure we'll easily top 5 inches of rain in the next 24 hours, and that is not all that unusual a thing in the winter, but the intense lightening and tornado is more spring/summer'ish weather pattern.

[Walt]

With respect to this thread's title, it may be coming for the next 25 years!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkzNmWlCig8&feature=player_embedded

[amazondk]

Accuweather says that another round of Arctic Blasts will hit North America the second half of January. The good news I guess is that Florida may be spared the worse part.

AccuweatherJanaury Cold Blast

[_Keith]

Accuweather says that another round of Arctic Blasts will hit North America the second half of January. The good news I guess is that Florida may be spared the worse part.

AccuweatherJanaury Cold Blast

South stays mild. I like that part

[Dave-Vero]

The 8-14 day temperature outlooks don't look good for Florida.http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

[SubTropicRay]

None of you really thought it was over did you??? It's January 1st for crying out loud. Happy New Year!

[spockvr6]

The 8-14 day temperature outlooks don't look good for Florida.http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Maine looks good though

[junglegalfla]

Am I reading this map right? The average temp is to be 60? If so, what's the big deal?

[Rusty on Pine Is.]

Am I reading this map right? The average temp is to be 60? If so, what's the big deal?

Bren, if you are referring to the CPC outlook map, the numbers are not temps, but denote percentage values for conditions either predicted to be above or below normal, or normal, which is generally given 33%.

The shading on the map is misleading, because it appears at first to predict temps, when actually it only predicts likelihood of either above or below conditions....and to make the map even more confusing, the normal areas don't mean that conditions will be average, they mean instead that those areas have equal chances of being either average or above or below.

With so many other prediction products available, i seldom waste any time with CPC.

Rusty

[junglegalfla]

Thanks for clearing that up for me Rusty

[Walt]

NOAA on Miami Florida: Coldest December on Record

From the NOAA National Weather Service Office in Miami comes this year end report:

2010 South Florida Weather Year in Review

Coldest December on Record Concludes Year of Extremes

December 30th, 2010: Temperature and precipitation extremes marked the weather of 2010 across South Florida. A cool and wet January through March was followed by the hottest summer on record, and then concluded with the coldest December on record for the main climate sites in South Florida (details on the above mentioned periods will be included below).

Here are December 2010 temperature averages for select sites (through 7 AM Dec 30th):

* Location of observations for each location have moved since the first year of record, but are representative of the city for record keeping purposes.

** Present Miami Beach and Moore Haven temperature data may not be totally comparable to historical data due to difference in time of daily reports which causes double-reporting of low temperatures.

Complete statistics of the record cold December for all sites above (except Moore Haven) will be provided in Record Reports which will be issued early on Jan 1, 2011.

The main culprit behind the cold temperatures in December 2010 was the same one which caused the cold winter of 2009-2010; a strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). When these atmospheric oscillations are in the strong negative phase, they essentially “flip” the weather pattern across North America, with upper-level high pressure and relative warmth over Greenland and Northeastern Canada and upper-level low pressure and cold over the eastern Continental United States, including Florida (Figure 1). This pattern forces the jet stream to plunge south from northern Canada into the southeastern U.S., transporting Arctic air masses into Florida.

A pronounced shift in the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) phase was noted in 2010, from a strong El Niño, or warm, phase to a borderline strong La Niña, or cold, phase. While this may appear at first glance to be a key contributor to the temperature extremes noted across South Florida during 2010, it is believed that it was the strongly negative NAO and AO, not the ENSO phase, which contributed to the cold temperatures in early and late 2010. A strongly phased NAO/AO operating on shorter time scales can override the longer-term ENSO phase.

As mentioned above, South Florida experienced its hottest summer on record in 2010 (with the exception of Naples which recorded its second hottest recorded summer). Despite the record hot summer, average yearly temperatures at the main climate sites will end up around 1 degree below normal, which will be the coolest calendar year since the early and mid 1980s, and among the top 10 on record (except for Miami). At secondary sites Miami Beach and Moore Haven, it was the coolest year on record (please note caveat below table).

Here are the 2010 temperature averages for the year for the primary climate sites through December 29:

** Present Miami Beach and Moore Haven temperature data may not be totally comparable to historical data due to difference in time of daily reports which causes double-reporting of low temperatures.

Some other interesting 2010 temperature statistics:

- Miami International Airport (MIA) observed 103 days of temperatures at or above 90 degrees, the 4th most on record. The average number of 90+ degree days per year is 51. MIA also had a record 45 days of low temperatures of 80 degrees or higher, besting the previous record of 39 set in 2009. The average number of 80+ degree low temperature days per year is 13. On the other end of the thermometer, MIA had 6 mornings with low temperatures below 40 degrees. This ties the 5th most number of sub-40 degree days on record. The average yearly number of sub-40 degree days is 2.

- Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport (FLL) observed 9 days of low temperatures below 40 degrees. This ties the 4th most number of sub-40 degree days on record. The average yearly number of sub-40 degree days is 3.

- Palm Beach International Airport (PBI) observed 106 days of temperatures at or above 90 degrees, the 8th most on record. The average number of 90+ degree days per year is 56. PBI also had a record 34 days of low temperatures of 80 degrees or higher, crushing the previous record of 17 set in 1900 and 2002. The average number of 80+ degree low temperature days per year is 6. On the other end of the thermometer, PBI had 18 mornings with low temperatures below 40 degrees. This easily breaks the previous record of 10 days set in 1920 and 1981. The average yearly number of sub-40 lows at PBI is 3. Six of the 18 days occurred in December, which breaks the previous monthly record for December of 5 set in 1962.

- Naples Regional Airport (APF) observed 125 days of temperatures at or above 90 degrees, the 12th most on record. The average number of 90+ degree days per year is 109. Naples also observed 13 days of low temperatures below 40 degrees. This ties the 5th most number of sub-40 degree days on record. The average yearly number of sub-40 degree days is 3. Eight of the 13 days occurred in December, which breaks the previous monthly record for December of 7 set in 1981.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/30/noaa-on-miami-florida-coldest-december-on-record/

[Dave-Vero]

Vero Beach was extraordinarily cold in December, 4.2 degrees below the previous coldest, which was December 1989. It was 10.8 degrees below normal.

Orlando was 3.2 degrees colder than 1989.

The hard freezes of December 14-15 were among the earliest on record.

[Eric in Orlando]

Vero Beach was extraordinarily cold in December, 4.2 degrees below the previous coldest, which was December 1989. It was 10.8 degrees below normal.

Orlando was 3.2 degrees colder than 1989.

The hard freezes of December 14-15 were among the earliest on record.

Dec. 2010 still is better than Dec. 1989, IMHO. Queen Palms and citrus are still green and alive around Orlando. In 12/89 they were brown and dead

[SubTropicRay]

Prolonged cold has its own set of problems. Nasty, quick drops in temps i.e. 1989 are more easily prepared for and defended against. December 2010 was cold here but not nearly as devastating as the January 2010 cold snap.

[Dave-Vero]

In 1989, I lived in Jacksonville. The city was closed for a couple of days due to an ice storm. Damage in Brevard County was horrible, lots of Syagrus deaths.

Locally, in Vero Beach, this December looks not nearly as bad as 1989, but I'm seeing damage on palms and cycads that rode out last winter in good shape. Unfortunately, many coconuts were only just recovering from last winter (a few had died).

[bubba]

Dave-Vero, Your posts are giving me that 1899 feeling. Do you feel that train a comin?

[_Keith]

Dave-Vero, Your posts are giving me that 1899 feeling. Do you feel that train a comin?

Bubba, the funny thing is this post was started referring to heavy thunderstorms and possible flash flooding. I guess folks were more interested in talking about cold, lol.