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Here we go again in Florida !!!


jrh735
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La Nina means a drier Florida winter but not neccessarily warm. The "warmer" part is because last year was so cold. It doesn't mean it will actually be warm. 11 consecutive frigid days is better than 12 right? Catch my drift.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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La Nina means a drier Florida winter but not neccessarily warm. The "warmer" part is because last year was so cold. It doesn't mean it will actually be warm. 11 consecutive frigid days is better than 12 right? Catch my drift.

I'd be interested to have someone at the NWS (or other prediction center) thoroughly explain the basis for these "la nina" predictions. Although I was willing to get optimistic about an actually warmer winter, I feel like that temperature "trend" might only be secondary to the "dryer" weather, and therefore subject to other forces (stronger cold fronts, sunspots, etc). For example--I read an article once that claimed quitting smoking increases your risk of type II diabetes. But you know what else does that? Eating a lot. And you know when people often eat a lot? When they've just quit smoking. So, I guess what I'm trying to say is... maybe in La Nina winters we are usually dryer. And we don't get these fronts that stall around pouring cold, clammy rain on us for days. So in that sense, our daytime highs are able to get higher on average. But is it anything la nina is doing directly to our tempuratures that's supposed to make them higher, or is that just a downstream effect of la nina's dryer weather?

(although, not to discredit my own theory, but it has been beautiful weather here minus the north breeze that feels like it's trying to rip your face off)

Eric

St. Petersburg, FL

www.myspace.com/koolthing78

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La Niña often features drier than normal conditions in the Southwest in late summer through the subsequent winter. Drier than normal conditions also typically occur in the Central Plains in the fall and in the Southeast in the winter. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is more likely to be wetter than normal in the late fall and early winter with the presence of a well-established La Niña. Additionally, on average La Niña winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

Key words there are "on average La Niña winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast" That doesn't mean you won't get down to 10F one morning.

Martin Farris, San Angelo, TX

San Angelo Cold Hardy Palms and Cycads

Jul - 92F/69F, Jan - 55F/31F

Lows:

02-03: 18F;

03-04: 19F;

04-05: 17F;

05-06: 11F;

06-07: 13F;

07-08: 14F 147.5 Freezing Degree-Hours http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...ee+hours\;

08-09: 23F;

09-10: 12F 467.6 Freezing Degree Hours, Average Temperature During Freeze 24.2F;

10-11: 13F 1,059.5 Freezing Degree Hours with Strong Winds/Rain/Snow/Sleet, Average Temperature During Freeze 19.4F;

Record low -4F in 1989 (High of 36F that p.m.) 1,125.2 freezing degree hours, Average Temperature During Freeze 13.6F;

Record Freeze 1983: 2,300.3 Freezing Degree Hours with a low of 5F, Average Temperature During Freeze 13.7F.

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With all the rain associated in an El Nino, I can't see how they get to "warmer in the southeast". That must exclude Florida. In a Florida El Nino, the subtropical jet is very active over Florida and trains of low pressure systems ride along this. El Nino typically means lots of clouds and warmer nights but also cooler daytime temps. On one hand it prevents more devastating freezes because of the potential cloud cover but it also introduces more chances for freezing temps with the barrage of frontal passages.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Eric,

Glad to see someone else out there who doesn't treat a little frosty Florida winter as Armageddon. It's an opportunity to learn what's hardy and what's not. Knowledge is good; even if it costs some money. For example, we had several Aechmea sp. bromeliads die last winter. Well, now we just don't bother growing those particular species and can tell our customers that the bromeliads we do carry are frost-tolerant.

JD

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