Another cold winter for Florida

[jrh735]

The 2010/2011 farmer's Almanac is predicting a colder and wetter winter than last year. I don't think alot of palms will be able to handle two cold winters in a row. Even here in Miami Beach some things are just starting to look good. Coconut's took the biggest hit down here. Our lowest low was 35 degrees on at least 3 nights. Two days never got out of the high 40's during the day. I hope their prediction is wrong.

[Rafael]

ANother winter like the last and i will probably loose my bangalow palm, and for sure my kentia

I have been feeling cooler and silent unprotected nights

[Alicehunter2000]

Say it ain't so!

Fertilizing this month.....icicle lights on standby........but praying for a warm winter.

[kylecawazafla]

Oh no! Don't say that. I was in downtown Miami during the coldest day this past winter. It didn't get above 42 F the entire day! It was warmer in Seattle. The next day I drove to Coral Gables and saw lots of damaged coconut palms and adonidias. It was so sad!!

[Zeeth]

Well, the almanac also predicted an unusually warm winter for 2009-2010, so I don't hold much faith in it...

[bubba]

Doubt this.

[PalmatierMeg]

Say it ain't so! I doubt this coming winter could be any worse for prolonged cold than the last. Local native Floridians said they had never experienced a winter like 2009/2010. Maybe occasional lower overnight drops but nothing where daytime temps never rose above 50 and nights above 35 for weeks at a time. Most unusual amd deadly for tropical plants.

[SubTropicRay]

I echo Bubba's sentiment. The statistical probability of two consecutive winters like this is staggeringly low. The Almanac is also ignoring La Nina which means drier conditions around here. Were they even right last year??

[Zeeth]

I echo Bubba's sentiment. The statistical probability of two consecutive winters like this is staggeringly low. The Almanac is also ignoring La Nina which means drier conditions around here. Were they even right last year??

Like I said, they predicted an unusually warm winter for 2009-2010, which was definitely not the case

[epicure3]

Seriously, when has there been 2 winters in a row like the last one. Probably never.

[Eric in Orlando]

I hope not but then you had Dec. 1983 and Jan. 1985 freezes. Two of the worst for FL and they were back to back.

[PalmatierMeg]

Say it ain't so!

Fertilizing this month.....icicle lights on standby........but praying for a warm winter.

David, do you find icicle lights (strings of white lights people hang from eves?) produce enough heat to be effective when wrapped around your palms?

[Trópico]

Say it ain't so!

Fertilizing this month.....icicle lights on standby........but praying for a warm winter.

David, do you find icicle lights (strings of white lights people hang from eves?) produce enough heat to be effective when wrapped around your palms?

I used those to protect my Spindle palm, which is coming out of a stunt growth condition (but with insect damage). The palm would have been KFC'd if it wasn't for the lights as it is far from the house, very exposed. Make sure that after you wrap the palm with the lights you also wrap entirely with a cloth or comforter. That will prevent the warm air from escaping.

[Moose]

I echo Bubba's sentiment. The statistical probability of two consecutive winters like this is staggeringly low. The Almanac is also ignoring La Nina which means drier conditions around here. Were they even right last year??

I think Ray is right. We will definitely see some cold fronts, but not day after day of sub 40F night time temperatures.

[gyuseppe]

The 2010/2011 farmer's Almanac is predicting a colder and wetter winter than last year. I don't think alot of palms will be able to handle two cold winters in a row. Even here in Miami Beach some things are just starting to look good. Coconut's took the biggest hit down here. Our lowest low was 35 degrees on at least 3 nights. Two days never got out of the high 40's during the day. I hope their prediction is wrong.

I do not think there can be so precise forecasts--forecasts have been wrong many times

[Jimhardy]

Entertainment only with the Almanac's weather predictions.

I love the book,lot's of great information.

[Alberto]

The 2010/2011 farmer's Almanac is predicting a colder and wetter winter than last year. I don't think alot of palms will be able to handle two cold winters in a row. Even here in Miami Beach some things are just starting to look good. Coconut's took the biggest hit down here. Our lowest low was 35 degrees on at least 3 nights. Two days never got out of the high 40's during the day. I hope their prediction is wrong.

I just saw a global map with the effects of ´´La Niña´´ on the climate of the Globe and I saw that Florida will have drier and warmer weather then normal the following months (oct,nov. and dec.)

West cost of Canada will be cooler and North California wetter.....

[PalmatierMeg]

Entertainment only with the Almanac's weather predictions.

I love the book,lot's of great information.

Not entertaining to read my upcoming winter will be colder than Billy-be-d****d. My palms are not amused.

[Jimhardy]

Entertainment only with the Almanac's weather predictions.

I love the book,lot's of great information.

Not entertaining to read my upcoming winter will be colder than Billy-be-d****d. My palms are not amused.

Not entertaining.......change the channel

[Alicehunter2000]

Say it ain't so!

Fertilizing this month.....icicle lights on standby........but praying for a warm winter.

David, do you find icicle lights (strings of white lights people hang from eves?) produce enough heat to be effective when wrapped around your palms?

I used those to protect my Spindle palm, which is coming out of a stunt growth condition (but with insect damage). The palm would have been KFC'd if it wasn't for the lights as it is far from the house, very exposed. Make sure that after you wrap the palm with the lights you also wrap entirely with a cloth or comforter. That will prevent the warm air from escaping.

Meg, Frank is right, Icicle lights are the perfect amount of heat for the trunk and growing point. Those itty bitty lights will not burn the palm when placed directly on the tissue. I directly wrap the trunk and growing point with the lights, then wrap a sheet around that. You can leave the lights on for days and the heat (if you stick your hand down in the sheet next to the lights feels like a balmy 90 degrees F.. This year I may actually get a thermometer and check for an exact temp. I use the lights that have one section burned out as I can't use them for decoration anymore....sure beats the heck out of throwing them away.........just be sure to use "Icicle Lights" I don't think it matters if they are colored or white.

[Steve the palmreader]

The winter 0f 1976-1977 was followed by the winter of 1977- 1978 wich was as cold or colder south Fl. had alot of damage in both winters (plenty of cold nights and some frost and freezes

Say it ain't so! I doubt this coming winter could be any worse for prolonged cold than the last. Local native Floridians said they had never experienced a winter like 2009/2010. Maybe occasional lower overnight drops but nothing where daytime temps never rose above 50 and nights above 35 for weeks at a time. Most unusual amd deadly for tropical plants.

[Walt]

I don't put any stock in the Farmer's Almanac, in terms of what they forcast for the weather, and on a daily basis, yet.

That being said, I don't want to endure (nor do my palms and tropicals) another wicked winter as this past one.

While I can't speak for the entire winter (basically December 2009, January and February 2010), I can state factually that the past four Januarys here in Florida (starting in 2007) have progressively gotten colder with respect to the monthly average.

I went into the historical data at the Florida Automated Weather Network http://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/

I pulled out the January average temperature, low temperature, and high temperature for the years 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 for the Sebring, Florida weather station site. As you can see from the below figures, the January monthly average temperature has fallen markedly over the past four years, to where January 2010 was almost nine degrees colder than January of 2007. I also check at least five other FAWN weather station (to include Ft. Lauderdale, Homestead, and several others in the central and northern part of the state. All of these stations showe basically the same downward cooling trend, and all stations were 9-10 degrees colder in January of 2010 than in January of 2007.

I can only hope this January breaks the afore cooling trend.

January 2007

Avg. monthly temperature: 64.56 degrees

Monthly lowest temperature: 33.64 degrees

Monthly highest temperature: 88.03 degrees

2 nights below 40 degrees

January 2008

Avg. monthly Temperature: 62.62 degrees

Monthly lowest temperature: 32.41 degrees

Monthly highest temperature: 85.82 degrees

2 nights below 40 degrees

January 2009

Avg. monthly temperature: 59.62 degrees

Monthly lowest temperature: 29.65 degrees

Monthly highest temperature: 85.96 degrees

5 nights below 40 degrees

January 2010

Avg. monthly temperature: 55.73 degrees

Monthly lowest temperature: 27.36 degrees

Monthly highest temperature: 84.90 degrees

13 nights below 40 degrees

The below photo shows the FAWN 10 meter weather station at Sebring, Florida. This weather station is typical to the approximately 35 other FAWN weather stations spread out across Florida.

[bubba]

Walt, I appreciate the outstanding link. Unfortunately, it does not cover suburban South Florida with any detail because it is an agricultural link.

Your Post did cause me to do some research on Weather Underground regarding trends and this is what I found as it relates to the "cold hole" West Palm Beach Airport. Morton Wineberg in his book "Florida Weather" quantifies Winter in West Palm Beach as lasting from Jan. 17-Jan.23. Accordingly, I picked the month of January to observe any trends. This is what I found for average monthly mean temperature for the following Januaries:

2010- 61F.

2009- 65F.

2008- 68F.

2007- 71F

2006- 67F.

2005- 67F.

2004- 65F.

2003- 60F.

2002- 67F.

2001- 61F.

2000- 66F.

The surprise to me was that the Winter of 2010 was not the coldest.The January of 2003 had a mean average of 60F.and the January of 2001 was 61F.,which was the same as 2010.That stated, the 10 year average January temperature was 68F.,which is the average normal usually reported.

Simply stated,I cannot deraign anything approaching a meaniful trend from this period as it relates to a cool down or warm up.In fact, this ten year period only suggests that the stated average mean temperature in January of 68F.seems to be accurate.

By the way, I am not certain what this Topic is doing here when it seems more appropriate to "Weather".

[Walt]

Walt, I appreciate the outstanding link. Unfortunately, it does not cover suburban South Florida with any detail because it is an agricultural link.

Your Post did cause me to do some research on Weather Underground regarding trends and this is what I found as it relates to the "cold hole" West Palm Beach Airport. Morton Wineberg in his book "Florida Weather" quantifies Winter in West Palm Beach as lasting from Jan. 17-Jan.23. Accordingly, I picked the month of January to observe any trends. This is what I found for average monthly mean temperature for the following Januaries:

2010- 61F.

2009- 65F.

2008- 68F.

2007- 71F

2006- 67F.

2005- 67F.

2004- 65F.

2003- 60F.

2002- 67F.

2001- 61F.

2000- 66F.

The surprise to me was that the Winter of 2010 was not the coldest.The January of 2003 had a mean average of 60F.and the January of 2001 was 61F.,which was the same as 2010.That stated, the 10 year average January temperature was 68F.,which is the average normal usually reported.

Simply stated,I cannot deraign anything approaching a meaniful trend from this period as it relates to a cool down or warm up.In fact, this ten year period only suggests that the stated average mean temperature in January of 68F.seems to be accurate.

By the way, I am not certain what this Topic is doing here when it seems more appropriate to "Weather".

Bubba: Yes, FAWN serves the agricultural community and thus, most of their recording stations are in the outlying rural areas (where it typically runs colder at night). Still, for all intents and purposes, because the 35 stations cover such a great cross section of the state, the low temperatures we saw this past January basically apply state wide, regardless of weather one was in an urban location or in proximity of the ocean or Gulf, etc. The urban locations on the same latitude as a rural location, while not running as cold, still ran colder this past January.

The problem with monthly temperature averages and mean averages, etc., is that they don't fully tell the story, as is the case when comparing January 2003 to January 2010.

I went back to the FAWN historical data and ran the numbers for the rural Ft. Lauderdale location for both January 2003 and January 2010. Sure enough, January 2010 averaged warmer than January 2003 (61.10F vs. 60.76F).

But January 2010 was far more devastating to tropicals in Ft. Lauderdale (at least from my recollection to folks that would report cold damage to this forum) than January of 2003. January 2010 had a string of 12 nights in the mid to low 40s, all the way down to five nights in the 30s, the lowest night being 33.61 degrees. This wasn't the case for January of 2003, although there was a string of cold nights late in the month, but overall it just wasn't as severe. I think that's what made the difference.

In any event, I've been tracking low tempertures at my place using multiple digital as well as mercury thermometers as well as cold/frost tender indicator plants since 1997. I know empirically that this past January was far worse for my garden than January of 2003. Only January of 2001 was worse, as I had a radiational freeze on the 5th that devastated my garden, as my open yard low was at least 22 degrees F, with heavy frost.

The problem with this past January, for my garden, was the duration of the cold rather than the extreme low temperatures. My tropicals such as ixora, hibiscus et al plants just didn't like the string of 12 days with far below average temperatures, and soil temperatures that dropped into the 40s.

Now, I'm just banking on the odds of chance, hoping that this winter will be warmer on average than the last.

[Xenon]

Wonder how winter will play out in Texas, especially the RGV.

Jonathan

[Daryl]

Bubba, according to your figures for the 11 years you listed, the average works out at 65.27F. But averages can be misleading. You could have a very warm month for 30 days, and a very cold day that freezes on the 31st day, and the average would still look very good, even though the plants are toasted. And average mean temps are even less of an indicator as you could have low minimums but high maximums, so the daily mean is still reasonably high, even though the minimum was really cold. I don't know if it happens in Florida, but in some areas over here in SE QLD, we can get winter days that are below freezing in the morning but in the 70s by lunchtime. Just my 2c...

Daryl

[AggiePalms]

One big controller of SE USA seasonal weather is ENSO. Last winter we were in a very nasty El Nino phase, which has largely dissipated (the National Weather Service stated that La Nina strengthened during August 2010, with continued strengthening through at least early 2011). If that is the case...El Nino, the single biggest cause of year to year temp fluctuations, will not be in effect this winter. Which means hopefully not as cold or wet. Next NWS evaluation due online October 7.

[Davidl]

In 2003 I lost nothing that I remember but 2010 I lost more than I care to remember. I lost palms this year that were not even hurt by the 28 degrees we had in 2003. Last winter we had a day that barley made 40 degrees for a high I don't recall that happening here before. We had several consecitive days below normal that seemed they would never end. I don't think that will happen two yrs in a row but if it does I think I will change my zone to 8b

Edited September 26, 2010 by Davidl

[Walt]

Not counting the 13 months I lived in Key West, Florida (while serving in the US Navy), I'm now in my 13th year living in inland south central Florida. One thing I can now confidently say is that 95% of my coldest days are radiational cooling nights. In this time I only recall one advective event that caused freeze/dessication damage to some of my palms and plantings. All damage was mainly foliage damage. I want to say that was around January 23rd or 24th of 2003, maybe 2004. My low that morning was 29.5 degrees F.

All my other cold damaging nights/mornings was due to radiational cooling, where my lows ranged from 22 degrees (on January 5, 2001) up to 32 degrees. This was over a course of 12 winters. Most of my winter lows are in the 27-28 degree range, and this happens only about one time each winter. By and large I consider my zone to be in the upper end of zone 9b.

I have had two winters where my lowest low was around 33 degrees and maybe 3 winters where it dropped just below 25 degrees. So, averaging all the winters out I figure my zone is 9b.

My county has around 100 lakes of various sizes, with the largest lake comprising 43 square miles. I can emperically state that during radiational cooling nights it's substantially warmer in proximity to the lakes. The bigger the lake the better.

My parents, plus two master gardener friends of mine live on Lake June, a 3,503 acre lake, on the south and east sides. They can grow palms and tropicals at their place that would get fried or outright killed each winter at my place, due to the thermal effect of the lake water.

For example, during the winters of 2005 through 2007 I installed a Halsey-Taylor high-low mercury thermometer at the base of a tree, 50 feet from the lake, at my parent's property. On February 14th 2006 (St. Valintine's Day) we had a radiational cooling night where my low temperature dropped to 27 degrees. My palms got fried! I called that day The St. Valintine's Day massacre! Yet, at my parent's property the temperature only dropped to 41 degrees (50 feet from the lake shore)!

This same scenario played out with every radiational freeze we had over a two winter period. The value of large bodies of water here in inland central Florida is great. Also, elevation is great as cold air sinks. Most of Florida is flat and near sea level. But in my area we have the Lake Wales Ridge and the terrian is hilly. Higher on the hills always runs signifigantly warmer on radiational cooling nights.

The above being said, the advantage didn't work this past January, at least not long enough. We had 12 straight days of abnormally below average temperatures. As such, the lake waters cooled down and lost their thermal benefit to the surrounding areas. Palms like adonidia and C. nucifera all got cold damage. These same palms wouldn't have been damaged had this just been a one or two night radiational cooling event.

So again, most of the cold damage to the tropical palms in my environs was due to the cummulative effect of 12 straight days of below normal temperatures. But, the 12 day period was capped off with the coldest night of the winter, where the FAWN weather station recorded 27 degrees.

[sick1166]

i should not say anything yet but they hurricane center said also 5 major hurricanes to hit florida they revised it over a month ago to 2 hit florida and 5 to hit the us so the the weatherman and the almanac are not accurate atleast i hope im right my palms and crotons actually are looking great after the summer

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Oh no! Don't say that. I was in downtown Miami during the coldest day this past winter. It didn't get above 42 F the entire day! It was warmer in Seattle. The next day I drove to Coral Gables and saw lots of damaged coconut palms and adonidias. It was so sad!!

Sure, Kyle, but wouldn't you agree that It's nature...being erratic, as is "NORMAL" FOR NATURE to be??

Palm Dr.

[mjff]

I put more stock in La Nina than Farmers Almanac. In my area La Nina means warm and dry weather for the most part. I didn't even bother planting the pasture this year because most La Nina years we get almost no precipitation the entire winter or early spring. We will see some really cold lows (low teens), but they are usually so brief and are preceeded and followed by highs in the 60's and 70's that they normally don't damage anything that I grow. Last La Nina I had Pentas survive the winter next to the house.

El Nino usually means cool (not cold) and wet weather in my area with lots of clouds that hold temperatures up at night and down during the day. The culprit last winter was the North Atlantic Oscillator that put a huge kink in the jet stream and forced it very far south and kept it here longer than normal allowing arctic air to spill down.