Signs of Autumn

[happ]

Happ,

This storm moving in sounds ominous, but when it's so far out, how can they be sure it will hit the Bay Area? Or is it more of a west coast event?

Dick

I believe the Bay Area may be the "bulls eye". Melor is still a tropical storm but will lose circulation before reaching the West Coast [however wind & rain could be record-setting in NorCal]. Have fun, Dick.

Here's where Mejor is now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-ti...0000&loop=0

Edited October 9, 2009 by happ

[KMartin]

Dick, they use weather models. All "ensembles" are agreeing on rain in larger amounts in the Bay area. Search up GFS weather model and you can forecast precipitation like the "pros". It is rather easy to handle, QPF is the rain forecast model indice.

Looks better up there than in my forecast area (Southern California)

[PalmGuyWC]

Ever since the pineapple express tore through N. Calif on Tue., it's almost like the clock was turned back a month. We have had warm sunny days and very mild nights. It's been picture perfect weather, but it cools a little today as a weak front is moving through.

Dick

[happ]

Heads Up for cooler temps this week. A rather cold airmass moves into the Pacific NW & Nevada this week & will drop minimums to the 50's & 40's inland in Northern & Southern California.

[PalmGuyWC]

The last week of Sept. was scorching hot in N. Calif, then the first part of Oct. was cooler than normal. Since the pineapple express about two weeks ago, we have had fantastic weather with above average temps. I can't remember a nicer Indian summer, but that's about to change tonight with cooler (cold) air from the north. It's been nice to have two weeks of extra growing season in N. Calif.

I'm slowly moving cold sensitive plants under cover, a few each day. With the lowered sun angle they still get several hours of sun each day. I'm trying not to throw my back out using a dolly to move the heavier containers.

Dick

[MattyB]

It cleared up last night, a weak offshore flow has begun, and my morning temps were 47F this morning. Brrrrrrrr. Let the spotting begin! (on the bottle palm at least)

[happ]

Chilly here also but quite windy so temp only dropped to 55F but tomorrow morning will be when the coldest readings should occur. Only the northern desert is under a frost & freeze warning but I would not be surprised if 30's are widespread in calm inland areas tomorrow morning.

[KMartin]

FROST ADVISORY

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER AUTHORITY

OCT 28, 2009 10:15a

THE INLAND EMPIRE (TEMECULA) ... KERN COUNTY VALLEYS (BAKERSFIELD ZONES) ... SAN LUIS OBISPO TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ... WESTERN SANTA BARBARA VALLEYS, JUST EAST OF VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE ...

THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER AUTHORITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY EFFECTIVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE AT, AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE ...

FROST WILL BE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND MAXIMIZING POTENTIAL BEFORE AND AT SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE ORANGE COUNTY BASIN, HOWEVER SINCE THE OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR, FROST DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.

AREAS JUST EAST OF VANDENBERG WILL ALSO SEE FROST. WAS BORDERLINED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAIN ZONES, BUT SINCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY HIT THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF THAT COUNTY HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A FROST ADVISORY.

THIS DECISION WAS MADE DUE TO THE THINKING THAT THE HIGHER CONTENT OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LARGE PART OF THAT MICRO-CLIMATE.

ADVISORY AS WELL FOR AREAS WHERE THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE NOT HITTING. THOSE AREAS ALSO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE ZONES NEAR TEMECULA. FROST IS LIKELY THERE. DECIDED TO SHOVE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY (BAKERSFIELD) IN THE ADVISORY AS WELL. HIGH HUMIDITY CONTENT AND COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN FROST

K. MARTIN

SCWXA - SCWXA.org

Frost Advisory (FA) - A Frost Advisory is issued When dynamics produce frost in the area. Isolated frost is not the issue on hand.

Edited October 28, 2009 by KMartin

[PalmGuyWC]

The winds started in Walnut Creek around noon yesterday as the front moved through. (or past) I must have had gusts up to 50 MPH and many palm fronds down. The Queens were bent double and this morning a green frond came down which is unusual. My low was 51F which surprised me, as I thought it would be cooler, but the wind continued through the night. It's blowing like crazy now, mid-morning.

A supporting pin on the Bay Bridge snapped, and the bridge is shut down. (indefinately, they say) Traffic is chaotic in the Bay Area as over a quarter million vehicles cross the bridge daily. It is thought the wind might have had something to do with it.

Dick

[PalmGuyWC]

My low this morning bottomed out at 40.5F, 6 degrees cooler than my previous low this Autumn. Summer is definately over, but a slow warming trend the next few days.

With constant emergency work, the Bay Bridge is almost repaired and ready for the afternoon commute, or that's what they are shooting for. The feds and Cal Trans have to inspect it first.

Dick

[happ]

My low this morning bottomed out at 40.5F, 6 degrees cooler than my previous low this Autumn. Summer is definately over, but a slow warming trend the next few days.

With constant emergency work, the Bay Bridge is almost repaired and ready for the afternoon commute, or that's what they are shooting for. The feds and Cal Trans have to inspect it first.

Dick

Dick, did you experience any wind damage? Looks like the state got hammered twice this month. First the ex-typhoon & now the windstorm. But as you point out, it will warm up nicely this weekend [may even hit 90F down here].

[PalmGuyWC]

Happ,

No real damage here, just twigs from the Oaks, and a lot of dead Washingtonia and Queen fronds blown down. Also a lot of Oak leaves, but that's to be expected this time of the year. Fortunately the north wind blew them away from my pool. Today turned out to be nice and warm, but another cool night expected.

Dick

[happ]

It appears that El Nino will be a major player in our winter but rainfall is not guaranteed. Most El Nino conditions provide much precipitation & generally warmer than normal minimums so we may not experience much cold this winter.