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Manos33

In depth analysis of the Athens Riviera climate and palm potential

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Manos33
20 hours ago, Phoenikakias said:

 @Alicante time has come for the final damage account the Royal has suffered during past winter. It is almost June and it is safe for us not to expect disclosure of any more damage in the future. Well damage remained minor and only cosmetic, restricted to brown tips of some leaves. It is almost inconspicuous. Most impressively trunk meanwhile has fattened up! Pictures taken today.

20220524_151352.thumb.jpg.adccd17770309797765f4c806c5bee1f.jpg20220524_151406.thumb.jpg.be988ac0a62e2c75d665d1ac159cb1ea.jpg20220524_151416.thumb.jpg.29605c4b632a83e644292f305119281b.jpg20220524_151420.thumb.jpg.07007c309e40f5be5358450d5f0caf4a.jpg

 

Amazing!! Thank you for the update. It looks just fine! I mean Ts never dropped below 0C in the Athens Riviera during the 2022 cold snaps so only minimal damage was to be expected!

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Victor G.
1 minute ago, Manos33 said:

I mean Ts never dropped below 0C in the Athens Riviera during the 2022 cold snaps so only minimal damage was to be expected!

True, but I found some weather stations pretty close to the royal, which show that for a whole day, the temperature remained below 3C.

And then, for about a 5-6 days (I think) the maximum temperatures never exceeded 10C.

That could kill the plant, not necessarily one very low temp for a couple of hours. Glad to see it's fine though!!

Strangely, the queen palm all over Greece look much more stressed that this royal. They all have completely yellow leaves (even in Lindos).
I found it very strange, since I thought that queens are much more cold tolerant that royals

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Manos33
7 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

True, but I found some weather stations pretty close to the royal, which show that for a whole day, the temperature remained below 3C.

Depends which stations. None of the known reliable Davis stations I know are representative of coastal Voula where the Royal is located. Even the NOA station is in Ano Voula at an altitude of around 60m and has nothing to do with the climate of coastal Voula. We need more stations on the coasts of the Athens Riviera!!!

Edited by Manos33

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Victor G.
8 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

Depends which stations. None of the known reliable Davis stations I know are representative of coastal Voula where the Royal is located. Even the NOA station is in Ano Voula at an altitude of around 60m and has nothing to do with the climate of coastal Voula. We need more station on the coasts of the Athens Riviera!!!

I'm talking more about private weather stations. I know you don't trust them and up to a point I agree with you, but I trust the low readings.
Private (and non air-ventilated) weather stations may give crappy readings in the summer (and autumn and spring) but I completely trust the low (so, night) winter readings.
Without sun and concrete that's been heated all day, I don't see a reason why it should give wrong temperature (unless it really is a 2 euro station).

Anyway, I did the test: I viewed different stations close to each other, on different websites (Weathercloud and Wunderground) and they seem to match that on the 24th of January, the temperature dropped to 0,2-0,7C (depending on where the station is located). Obviously, I looked at stations very near to that royal

Edited by Victor G.

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Victor G.

One more thing guys: Has anybody talked to the locals there?

I know it's a wild theory, but couldn't it be that someone (probably the guy who planted this) pulls up a tent around it when it gets really cold?

I mean, how sure are we, that this survives all by itself in the cold weather?

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Manos33
4 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

I'm talking more about private weather stations. I know you don't trust them and up to a point I agree with you, but I trust the low readings.

No, I do trust some private weather stations provided they are fan aspirated. Biases can be found in Tmins as well in passive stations due to night sky radiation but if they are mechanically ventilated stations then I am all in!

 

 

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Manos33
14 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

One more thing guys: Has anybody talked to the locals there?

I know it's a wild theory, but couldn't it be that someone (probably the guy who planted this) pulls up a tent around it when it gets really cold?

I mean, how sure are we, that this survives all by itself in the cold weather?

The things is that this Royal is smack bang next to the coast. It is one of the mildest (if not the mildest) areas of Metropolitan Athens. Maybe only Vouliagmeni and Piraeus coasts or even Nea Smyrni can rival coastal Voula in Metropolitan Athens.

Edited by Manos33

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Manos33
10 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

I know it's a wild theory, but couldn't it be that someone (probably the guy who planted this) pulls up a tent around it when it gets really cold?

I mean that's a public pavement!Who would give a shit to do that in Greece?I mean really? Whoever thinks of doing something like that in a public pavement and especially in such posh areas like Voula will have to deal with some very unpleasant neighbours as well. 

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Victor G.
7 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

Biases can be found in Tmins as well in passive stations due to night sky radiation

Yeah but come on man! This is a drop in an ocean!
Anyways, I find the readings af around 0,7C accurate and have no reason to doubt them.

I completely agree with you on fan-aspiration, but just not in this case.

2 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

I mean that's a public pavement!Who would give a shit to do that in Greece?I mean really?

Why? I would do it! And sure, not everyone is as obsessed with tropics as I am, but I can't be the only one.

And if it was a small plastic tent, I don't see any reason for people to complain. I mean I broke a road once just to install an irrigation system and not only the people didn't get mad, some of them actually praised me for my work! (I fixed the road afterwards, just saying, I'm not a jerk! :D)

I want to say that, if we would have confirmation that this survives on its own, that would be great!
If I ever happen to pass by and see a local in his house, I'll ask him

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Manos33
16 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

Yeah but come on man! This is a drop in an ocean!
Anyways, I find the readings af around 0,7C accurate and have no reason to doubt them.

I completely agree with you on fan-aspiration, but just not in this case.

Actually no. The biases in Tmins can be is some cases more significant than Tmaxes when it comes to passive stations. The buildup of heat during the day can have huge implications in Tmins of passive stations (the cheapest the crappiest the reading would be) especially during windless nights. I have been there and done that multiple times. So yeah the only guarantee for me is fan-aspiration!!!

Edited by Manos33

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Manos33
18 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

Why? I would do it! And sure, not everyone is as obsessed with tropics as I am, but I can't be the only one.

And if it was a small plastic tent, I don't see any reason for people to complain. I mean I broke a road once just to install an irrigation system and not only the people didn't get mad, some of them actually praised me for my work! (I fixed the road afterwards, just saying, I'm not a jerk! :D)

I want to say that, if we would have confirmation that this survives on its own, that would be great!
If I ever happen to pass by and see a local in his house, I'll ask him

I mean come on! Directly next and above the Royal in Voula there are DEI cables. How would one put a tent? :P

Edited by Manos33
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Manos33
20 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

And if it was a small plastic tent, I don't see any reason for people to complain. 

This is Voula we are talking about! One of the most posh areas in Greece. Its not a small village like Dikastika :P

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Victor G.
11 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

The buildup of heat during the day can have huge implications in Tmins of passive stations

Exactly. That's why all the passive weather stations are useless in the summer. (Okay, maybe not completely useless, but non-reliable).

But, what heat buildup are we talking about here? It was an extremely cold week in Athens, plus it was windy. How can a wall accumulate such heat? And even if it does (say from the sun) how much heat will it gather? It will immediately dissapear by the low air temperature.

This is why I compared 2-3 different stations in the area. Their readings were very close to each other. If the difference was like 1,5-2 degrees, then I would think that there's something wrong, but that isn't the case.

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Manos33
7 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

But, what heat buildup are we talking about here?

Forget buildings, concrete walls and what not. The heat buildup comes from the crappy sensors themselves especially when we talk about cheap passive stations. I have empirically seen this for more than a decade and there is research to back it up (I remember articles from the Korean and Japan Met Offices). While yes if we see similar Ts across many stations chances are that the Ts are reliable we can never have an accurate representation unless we simulate the very exact geomorphology of an area we study. 

Especially when it comes to Athens it means jack shit if you have readings in even 100 meters distance. The variety and climatological complexity of Athens is a thing to reckon. I have seen huge and I mean huge differences in neighbouring areas around Athens. 

Edited by Manos33

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Janni

@Phoenikakias I think those three last palms are queen palms. Don’t you think?

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Phoenikakias
9 hours ago, Janni said:

@Phoenikakias I think those three last palms are queen palms. Don’t you think?

Yes, my mistake. But there are around also two King palms at least, It is just that aI was driving by and missed the chance to take pictures of them too.

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Victor G.
18 hours ago, Manos33 said:

Forget buildings, concrete walls and what not. The heat buildup comes from the crappy sensors themselves especially when we talk about cheap passive stations. I have empirically seen this for more than a decade and there is research to back it up (I remember articles from the Korean and Japan Met Offices). While yes if we see similar Ts across many stations chances are that the Ts are reliable we can never have an accurate representation unless we simulate the very exact geomorphology of an area we study. 

Especially when it comes to Athens it means jack shit if you have readings in even 100 meters distance. The variety and climatological complexity of Athens is a thing to reckon. I have seen huge and I mean huge differences in neighbouring areas around Athens. 

I get what you're saying. But a geographical complexity and an amazing microclimate will not put you into a tropical zone.

I've been looking at different stations (mostly from N.O.A., but also private stations) and, from what I've seen, the microclimate will push you just a tiny bit upwards in the hardiness zone system.
For example, if the wider area is in the upper end of 10a, a microclimate could place you into the lower end of 10b. But that's it.
I've never seen a microclimate that turns a low 10a to a medium 10b for example, no matter how protected the area may be.

For the night from the 23rd to the 24th of January 2022, this is the info we have:

  • Vari (N.O.A. station) dropped to -0,2C (I know it's far away, but it's the closest professional station)

 

  • Private (and close by) weather stations registered 0,2C and 0,3C respectively. They are more inland than the royal itself, but still.

 

  • Palaio Faliro and Anavyssos (both N.O.A. stations) registered 0,9C. These two have nothing to do with Voula and the royal, it just shows how the temperature dropped in the whole south - southwest coastal Attica.

 

Also, if we look at other private stations (further away from the royal), they all show that the temprature dropped to the 0,2 - 0,9 range.
I refuse to believe that, where the royal is standing, the temperature remained above (let's say) 1,3C. Unless someone brings me concrete proof.

And to me, that's good news. It shows that the palm can take more cold than I thought, which encourages me to (maybe) try it in Dikastika sometime.

 

And like I said, I still remain sceptical to whether the royal survived on its own, or protected.
Being in multiple Tropical Plants FB Groups for more than two years, you woudn't imagine what people do to protect their tropicals. Some invest thousands of euros into their winter protection.
So it wouldn't surprise me seeing someone pulling a tent over the royal in the winter. So what if it's Voula?

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Manos33
5 hours ago, Victor G. said:

I get what you're saying. But a geographical complexity and an amazing microclimate will not put you into a tropical zone.

No one says that.

However, conversely in winter and especially in extreme events such as snow and ice then crappy passive non fan aspirated stations with problematic sensors can have huge biases both over or under reporting Ts.  

Especially when we talk about snow the wildest under reporting T biases happen in such conditions when ice and snow can be trapped or stuck in bs sensors and give us some really crappy values. In fact it is in extreme events such as these that we have the most suspect readings from crappy passive stations due to all sort of problems. This is a well established fact in scrutinizing meteorological data.

Again none of the values you quote mean nothing when it comes to the complexity of  Athens. We just do not know what the minimum was that night in coastal Voula but my experience says that it would have had much higher values than most places in metropolitan Athens.  Just how much higher we will never know unfortunately!

My opinion is not to try to compare Dikastika with the Athens Basin meteorological and climatological complexity. The Basin is virtually one of the most complex areas on the planet for its size when it comes to orography and geomorphology. Huge mountains, countless hills and huge altitude differences make Athens one of the most difficult areas to predict and assess accurately its climate. I learn something new about the climate of Athens almost everyday!

Edited by Manos33

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Victor G.
2 hours ago, Manos33 said:

No one says that.

However, conversely in winter and especially in extreme events such as snow and ice then crappy passive non fan aspirated stations with problematic sensors can have huge biases both over or under reporting Ts.  

Especially when we talk about snow the wildest under reporting T biases happen in such conditions when ice and snow can be trapped or stuck in bs sensors and give us some really crappy values. In fact it is in extreme events such as these that we have the most suspect readings from crappy passive stations due to all sort of problems. This is a well established fact in scrutinizing meteorological data.

Again none of the values you quote mean nothing when it comes to the complexity of  Athens. We just do not know what the minimum was that night in coastal Voula but my experience says that it would have had much higher values than most places in metropolitan Athens.  Just how much higher we will never know unfortunately!

My opinion is not to try to compare Dikastika with the Athens Basin meteorological and climatological complexity. The Basin is virtually one of the most complex areas on the planet for its size when it comes to orography and geomorphology. Huge mountains, countless hills and huge altitude differences make Athens one of the most difficult areas to predict and assess accurately its climate. I learn something new about the climate of Athens almost everyday!

So, in your opinion, the royal was exposed to less cold? Like 3-4C?

Or do you mean that the temperature was lower than those stations recorded?

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Manos33
8 hours ago, Victor G. said:

So, in your opinion, the royal was exposed to less cold? Like 3-4C?

Less cold for sure. But no way to tell what the actual Tmin was.

Judging from the fact that the Royal has survived the epic 2004 cold snap this location must be really special. 

Edited by Manos33

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Phoenikakias
6 hours ago, Manos33 said:

Less cold for sure. But no way to tell what the actual Tmin was.

Judging from the fact that the Royal has survived the epic 2004 cold snap this location must be really special. 

8 km outside the urban region and at 200m distance from coast and 138m altitude, at 20:00 pm on 23 January temperature in my garden was precisely 0 C.  At sea level nearby also 0 C and about 400 m inland temperature dropped to -1 and near the industrial zone of Koropi temperature dropped to -3 but in the industrial zone temp rose again between -1 and 0. On the Perifereiaki Ymittou at same altitude temperature fluctuated between -1 and +1 only at a couple hundred meters distance! I asked a resident of Voula about the situation there during the January cold spell and he replied that snow had settled well also there and lasted for at least one day.

Having myself to protect many of my palms, I do not consider probable at all an overhead protection of such a big specimen. If any measures could be taken, those would be only mechanical or with water spraying removal of settled snow.  

Average temperature in Voula is one degree higher than in my garden.

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Manos33
On 5/27/2022 at 11:29 AM, Phoenikakias said:

8 km outside the urban region and at 200m distance from coast and 138m altitude, at 20:00 pm on 23 January temperature in my garden was precisely 0 C.  At sea level nearby also 0 C and about 400 m inland temperature dropped to -1 and near the industrial zone of Koropi temperature dropped to -3 but in the industrial zone temp rose again between -1 and 0. On the Perifereiaki Ymittou at same altitude temperature fluctuated between -1 and +1 only at a couple hundred meters distance! I asked a resident of Voula about the situation there during the January cold spell and he replied that snow had settled well also there and lasted for at least one day.

Having myself to protect many of my palms, I do not consider probable at all an overhead protection of such a big specimen. If any measures could be taken, those would be only mechanical or with water spraying removal of settled snow.  

Average temperature in Voula is one degree higher than in my garden.

Koropi and generally anything outside metropolitan Athens get significantly colder as we move away from the coast. 

I reckon the whole coastal area between Ag. Kosmas and Vari, areas of coastal Piraeus, coastal Moschato and Nea Smyrni have the mildest winter minimum Ts in Attica. I think they beat even Sounio. 

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Manos33

A prime example today of how Mesogeia and E Attica reach the highest Ts in Attica when S winds prevail. Attica's maximum today so far in Oropos NOA station with 32.6C and Avlonas Davis station with 32.4C while the rest of Attica and Athens are between 29C and 31C 

Edited by Manos33

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Manos33
On 5/29/2022 at 3:08 PM, Manos33 said:

A prime example today of how Mesogeia and E Attica reach the highest Ts in Attica when S winds prevail. Attica's maximum today so far in Oropos NOA station with 32.6C and Avlonas Davis station with 32.4C while the rest of Attica and Athens are between 29C and 31C 

For those with an interest regarding the climate of Athens and Attica in general today we had the exact opposite effect with N winds creating a foehn effect in the Athens Riviera. The maximums today in Attica were observerved along the Athens Riviera stations with Vari NOA reaching 34.4C while inland areas remained lower and E Attica was much lower. 

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Phoenikakias
On 6/2/2022 at 9:18 PM, Manos33 said:

For those with an interest regarding the climate of Athens and Attica in general today we had the exact opposite effect with N winds creating a foehn effect in the Athens Riviera. The maximums today in Attica were observerved along the Athens Riviera stations with Vari NOA reaching 34.4C while inland areas remained lower and E Attica was much lower. 

Yesterday night 26 C in Kolonaki, 29 (!) in urban Athens Riviera and 28 in my garden (outside the urban area) after 22:00 local time.

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Manos33

Unfortunately a few hours ago a big fire has started in the Athens Riviera. Currently Imitos mountain close to Glyfada and Voula is on flames burning a lot of vegetation.

The fire is moving towards Vari

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Manos33

The Athens Riviera recorded once again the highest Ts in Attica today due to the N fohn winds coming from Imitos mountain. More specifically the Glyfada Davis WeatherLink station recorded 38.8C earlier today followed by Salamina NOA station with 37.9C.

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Victor G.
On 6/4/2022 at 5:04 PM, Manos33 said:

Unfortunately a few hours ago a big fire has started in the Athens Riviera. Currently Imitos mountain close to Glyfada and Voula is on flames burning a lot of vegetation.

The fire is moving towards Vari

Another fire today in Artemida.

Also some rain/thunderstorms coming tonight and in the next few days... According to the ECMWF model, we'll see rain today, on Friday, Saturday and Sunday (although the prediction accuracy is low). I'm wondering, isn't this too much rain, considering it's already June?

I've also noticed a shift in the last rain before the summer drought; every year it appears (at least to me) to be later. Has anybody noticed the same?

P.S.: Sorry guys for being very inactive. I'm primarily interested in tropical plants, that's why I care much more in the winter about the weather patters than in the summer. Occasionally, I do look at the forum though

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Manos33
12 hours ago, Victor G. said:

I'm wondering, isn't this too much rain, considering it's already June?

Well, there seems to be a tendency the past 3-4 years to have rainy Junes in Athens. Currently the average precipitation for June the past 3-4 years is above 20 mm in most stations in Athens.  But that's only sporadic I guess. The 30 year means are much lower. 

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Manos33
On 5/26/2022 at 8:21 PM, Victor G. said:

So, in your opinion, the royal was exposed to less cold? Like 3-4C?

@Victor G. @Phoenikakias@ego

Guys, a rather interesting find!

While checking the data from the Davis station in Glyfada I came across something that I had missed. Bear in mind that we are talking about only 3 years of data, but it appears that the Davis station in the Glyfada Golf area (WeatherLink Network) has even milder winters and higher average annual Ts than Nea Smyrni NOA station which is the warmest station of Attica the past decade according to the National Observatory of Athens. 

Below are the data for the Glyfada Davis station

%CE%93%CE%9B%CE%A5%CE%A6%CE%91%CE%94%CE%

The station is located at 53m altitude and more inland than the rest of the coastal stations in the Athens Riviera.  Nea Smyrni for the exact same period works out 8.3C average January minimum versus 8.7C for Glyfada and 9.4C for February versus 9.8C for Glyfada. 

This is a good indication that Voula and especially the area where the Royal is located must be subjected to even milder winter Ts given that it is just next to the coast and much further south than Glyfada. Currently the data for Glyfada suggest that this is actually the mildest met station in Attica and not Nea Smyrni. Again, I must caution you that we are talking only for 3 years data but its our first solid indication backed up by actual and reliable meteorological data that the Royal in Voula may experience a significantly milder winter climate than most of the Athens Riviera.

Interestingly enough the average annual T of the Glyfada Davis station is 20.44C vs 20.32C in Nea Smyrni for the exact same period. This effectively makes the Glyfada Davis station the warmest station in continental Europe for the 2019-2022 period! Mind you that my house is just 5 minutes walking distance from the Glyfada Golf area!

 

 

 

Edited by Manos33
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Victor G.
6 hours ago, Manos33 said:

@Victor G. @Phoenikakias@ego

Guys, a rather interesting find!

While checking the data from the Davis station in Glyfada I came across something that I had missed. Bear in mind that we are talking about only 3 years of data, but it appears that the Davis station in the Glyfada Golf area (WeatherLink Network) has even milder winters and higher average annual Ts than Nea Smyrni NOA station which is the warmest station of Attica the past decade according to the National Observatory of Athens. 

Below are the data for the Glyfada Davis station

%CE%93%CE%9B%CE%A5%CE%A6%CE%91%CE%94%CE%

The station is located at 53m altitude and more inland than the rest of the coastal stations in the Athens Riviera.  Nea Smyrni for the exact same period works out 8.3C average January minimum versus 8.7C for Glyfada and 9.4C for February versus 9.8C for Glyfada. 

This is a good indication that Voula and especially the area where the Royal is located must be subjected to even milder winter Ts given that it is just next to the coast and much further south than Glyfada. Currently the data for Glyfada suggest that this is actually the mildest met station in Attica and not Nea Smyrni. Again, I must caution you that we are talking only for 3 years data but its our first solid indication backed up by actual and reliable meteorological data that the Royal in Voula may experience a significantly milder winter climate than most of the Athens Riviera.

Interestingly enough the average annual T of the Glyfada Davis station is 20.44C vs 20.32C in Nea Smyrni for the exact same period. This effectively makes the Glyfada Davis station the warmest station in continental Europe for the 2019-2022 period! Mind you that my house is just 5 minutes walking distance from the Glyfada Golf area!

 

 

 

Interesting!

Could you tell us the absolute low values of the past 3 years and January's and March's average low values for 2022?

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Manos33
6 hours ago, Victor G. said:

Interesting!

Could you tell us the absolute low values of the past 3 years and January's and March's average low values for 2022?

0.2C absolute minimum in 2019 

7.5C average min for Jan 2022

8.1C average min for Mar 2022

Edited by Manos33
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Victor G.
25 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

0.2C absolute minimum in 2019 

0.7C minimum Jan 2022

2.1 minimum Mar 2022

Huh... Had the exact same Jan 2022 minimum in Dikastika. In March however, it got down to 1C for a short time in my place.

29 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

7.5C average min for Jan 2022

8.1C average min for Mar 2022

Beats me. I had min averages of 6,8C and 7,3C on Jan & Mar 2022, respectively.

I know you have no faith in my station, but I do :P

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Manos33
2 hours ago, Victor G. said:

Beats me. I had min averages of 6,8C and 7,3C on Jan & Mar 2022, respectively.

Still pretty mild for NE Attica!

Judging by the Glyfada Davis data I would say that area of the Royal in Voula might just have around 0.5C higher winter average T mins. Or even more. 

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Manos33

Show this in downtown Athens yesterday. What kind of palm is it?

1.thumb.jpeg.cf2ae2e40390c6b4d0e63d69aecfb75b.jpeg

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Janni

Syagrus romanzoffiana - nice but nothing special… 

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Manos33

Went for a swim in the Athens Riviera earlier today and I took some pics of the Royal in Voula! It seems it is in good condition.

I spoke also to an old man who told me he is a resident of the area and that the trees along the pavement have been planted by the Green Service of the Municipality between late 80's to early 90's. I pressured him to remember specifically for the Royal but he was not sure of the actual date it was planted.

3.thumb.jpeg.a0d89380661c96e34e68546b4749ed59.jpeg1.thumb.jpeg.316a3c1a4e185bf47c5a8b1fcbba9d23.jpeg5.thumb.jpeg.9db6ff6cd39640863f6834a1b7245dc2.jpeg1a.thumb.jpeg.10ebfb15e8d219f5109af05a2cc67118.jpeg1b.thumb.jpeg.d47bded536bc3ab74b1326ff61210aa8.jpeg6.thumb.jpeg.7f1e36bb3e54a4af4aa5ba9cd1f3cf4b.jpeg2.thumb.jpeg.7349aaa1809c45739d53dcd31f9372d9.jpeg

 

 

 

 

Edited by Manos33

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Manos33
On 6/7/2022 at 2:53 AM, Manos33 said:

 

Interestingly enough the average annual T of the Glyfada Davis station is 20.44C vs 20.32C in Nea Smyrni for the exact same period. This effectively makes the Glyfada Davis station the warmest station in continental Europe for the 2019-2022 period! Mind you that my house is just 5 minutes walking distance from the Glyfada Golf area!

 

Just a quick update on this post. With June added on the data the average annual T of the Glyfada Davis station located in the Athens Riviera now reads 20.5C

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