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What will survive

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NBTX11

Any guesses as to what will survive in Texas.  Here is my prediction.  Virtually all palms north of Waco - DEAD.  Maybe someone eeks out a Sabal or Windmill in Dallas

Austin - All W. Robusta and Date palms - Dead.  W. Filifera, Sabal Palmetto, and Sabal Mexicana live for the most part.  Still some deaths there.

San Antonio.  50 percent of W. Robusta - Dead.  Some surprise and live.  All queen palms dead.  Some date palms dead.  Probably most dates survive.  Every W. Filifera, Sabal, etc live on.  The infamous riverwalk mules live after enduring damage. 

Houston.  Queen palms dead.  A lot of Robusta dead maybe 25 or 30 percent  Every zone push zone 9 and 10 palm unprotected dead.

Corpus, large numbers of queen palms dead,  30 or 40 percent dead.  Virtually all W. Robusta live.    

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ahosey01
3 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

Any guesses as to what will survive in Texas.  Here is my prediction.  Virtually all palms north of Waco - DEAD.  Maybe someone eeks out a Sabal or Windmill in Dallas

Austin - All W. Robusta and Date palms - Dead.  W. Filifera, Sabal Palmetto, and Sabal Mexicana live for the most part.  Still some deaths there.

San Antonio.  50 percent of W. Robusta - Dead.  Some surprise and live.  All queen palms dead.  Some date palms dead.  Probably most dates survive.  Every W. Filifera, Sabal, etc live on.  The infamous riverwalk mules live after enduring damage. 

Houston.  Queen palms dead.  A lot of Robusta dead maybe 25 or 30 percent  Every zone push zone 9 and 10 palm unprotected dead.

Corpus, large numbers of queen palms dead,  30 or 40 percent dead.  Virtually all W. Robusta live.    

Curious about Nanorrhops and Sabal uresana myself.

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TexasColdHardyPalms

There will be a few trunking sabals, most windmills and pure filifera live in Dallas.  The mazari at my parents house in Oklahoma have seen temps close to what we saw in dfw and they survived. I'm curious to see what the t. Campestris in the ground do along with schizophylla.  Here is a very burned jxb. This palm has never leaf burned before.  

The little trachycarpus is already showing that it will be completely defolitated.  

20210216_144632.jpg

20210216_144649.jpg

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NBTX11

My Robusta is already frying, but the Filifera still looks perfectly fine...other than the ice hanging on it still.

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NBTX11
50 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

There will be a few trunking sabals, most windmills and pure filifera live in Dallas. 

I hope you're right.  I just didn't see how they can survive -2 or whatever it got to.  Hopefully I am wrong.

I somewhat expect to see a lot of dead Robusta in San Antonio.  They are everywhere in certain parts of town.

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Allen
58 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

There will be a few trunking sabals, most windmills and pure filifera live in Dallas.  The mazari at my parents house in Oklahoma have seen temps close to what we saw in dfw and they survived. I'm curious to see what the t. Campestris in the ground do along with schizophylla.  Here is a very burned jxb. This palm has never leaf burned before.  

The little trachycarpus is already showing that it will be completely defolitated.  

20210216_144649.jpg

Well the Trachy dead like that already is not a good sign for anything else even though it is small.  

Edited by Allen

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PalmatierMeg

Unfortunately, in catastrophic freezes like this some palms may look okay until the cold is over. Then, over coming days and weeks, they deteriorate before your eyes and collapse. That happened to me in 2010. I lost 30+ spp of palms between Jan. and Sep. Some that I believed had survived, i.e., Areca concinna, Bentinckia nicobarica, Hydriastele beguinii, died months later. When I saw their trunks start to shrivel I knew they were gone. The last was a Pinanga coronata taller than I was. Some years back LA, MS & AL went through a Polar Vortex record front. Palms there kept dying even months later, well into spring and summer.

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Swolte

I haven't lost palms to cold yet (only started growing them these past few years) but what are early signs of demise or recovery with these extreme events? If a spear grows in spring, would you say that's a good sign of overall health and will it likely pull through? 

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Xenon

Two large Livistona chinensis planted in 1997 are already completely discolored, I expect them to be crispy in a few days. I hope they survive.

Low of 12F 

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Allen
10 minutes ago, Swolte said:

I haven't lost palms to cold yet (only started growing them these past few years) but what are early signs of demise or recovery with these extreme events? If a spear grows in spring, would you say that's a good sign of overall health and will it likely pull through? 

I just have experience with cold hardy palms but you should check the spear of the palms in the next few weeks by giving it a gentle but firm pull, every week or so and if it is 'wobbly' or pulls treat with Hydrogen Peroxide or Copper fungicide.  If spear is intact you can mark with a sharpie to see if it is growing.  A growing spear is a great sign unless the trunk has cold damage and rot is in there.  I would proactively treat all likely damaged palms in a couple weeks anyway in the spear area. 

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Collectorpalms

In College Station, our 24 hour Average temperature was 20/6 official, I had 20/4. That would be cold enough for the coldest 24 hour period from 12pm to 12pm in recorded history. 
I do not expect anything to live. They would have been warmer in the freezer. 

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jimmyt
7 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

Any guesses as to what will survive in Texas.  Here is my prediction.  Virtually all palms north of Waco - DEAD.  Maybe someone eeks out a Sabal or Windmill in Dallas

Austin - All W. Robusta and Date palms - Dead.  W. Filifera, Sabal Palmetto, and Sabal Mexicana live for the most part.  Still some deaths there.

San Antonio.  50 percent of W. Robusta - Dead.  Some surprise and live.  All queen palms dead.  Some date palms dead.  Probably most dates survive.  Every W. Filifera, Sabal, etc live on.  The infamous riverwalk mules live after enduring damage. 

Houston.  Queen palms dead.  A lot of Robusta dead maybe 25 or 30 percent  Every zone push zone 9 and 10 palm unprotected dead.

Corpus, large numbers of queen palms dead,  30 or 40 percent dead.  Virtually all W. Robusta live.    

Well @NBTX11 I do live just on the northwest edge of Waco in China Spring.  We shall see if your prediction holds true.  My low temp monday was -2 F.  So much for Zone 8b huh!  Time will tell if there was enough protection. 

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Jimbean
7 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

Any guesses as to what will survive in Texas.  Here is my prediction.  Virtually all palms north of Waco - DEAD.  Maybe someone eeks out a Sabal or Windmill in Dallas

Austin - All W. Robusta and Date palms - Dead.  W. Filifera, Sabal Palmetto, and Sabal Mexicana live for the most part.  Still some deaths there.

San Antonio.  50 percent of W. Robusta - Dead.  Some surprise and live.  All queen palms dead.  Some date palms dead.  Probably most dates survive.  Every W. Filifera, Sabal, etc live on.  The infamous riverwalk mules live after enduring damage. 

Houston.  Queen palms dead.  A lot of Robusta dead maybe 25 or 30 percent  Every zone push zone 9 and 10 palm unprotected dead.

Corpus, large numbers of queen palms dead,  30 or 40 percent dead.  Virtually all W. Robusta live.    

reasonable prediction

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Collectorpalms
33 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

reasonable prediction

Looking at the past record freezes, Simple things like Lush lawns of St Augustine grass will be killed for some of us... southern live oak and crape Myrtle die back. The duration for the freeze for some of us continues. 
Looks like downtown Austin, Houston within BW 8 and San Antonio southward faired much better. That gives me hope.

I don’t think you will see me replanting anything that dies.

Just because we had a bad freeze doesn’t mean it will be another lifetime without a hard freeze. They very often follow each other. Examples...

1895/1899

1949/1951

1983/1989

2021/?

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Collectorpalms

There were some very healthy Filifera in Taylor, Texas. Not far from my brothers. These appeared to be all planted after the 80s, but some nursery sold a lot in the years afterward. It was -1 this morning....

5C907988-7A4D-442F-8E7E-5FA70C84EACA.png

Edited by Collectorpalms
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NBTX11
1 hour ago, Swolte said:

I haven't lost palms to cold yet (only started growing them these past few years) but what are early signs of demise or recovery with these extreme events? If a spear grows in spring, would you say that's a good sign of overall health and will it likely pull through? 

A spear growing and moving in the right direction is definitely a good sign

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NBTX11
1 hour ago, Collectorpalms said:

I do not expect anything to live. 

You don't have ANYTHING hardy?  No Sabal Mexicana's, no Sabal minor's, nothing?

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NBTX11
11 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

There were some very healthy Filifera in Taylor, Texas. Not far from my brothers. These appeared to be all planted after the 80s, but some nursery sold a lot in the years afterward. It was -1 this morning....

I've seen pre-1980 Filifera in Killeen Texas before.  I've never scoped out DFW to see if there are any there.

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Collectorpalms

Sabal Minor,  this morning in Oklahoma....

F7D85316-D9ED-4F29-A231-D969F27140E4.png

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jwitt
1 hour ago, Collectorpalms said:

Sabal Minor,  this morning in Oklahoma....

F7D85316-D9ED-4F29-A231-D969F27140E4.png

I figure the natives may take a bit of a hit, maybe not. Overall I bet it strengthens the species with the toughest surviving.  Also curious on the Oklahoma palm growers.and the final outcome.  Tulsa and OKC had some really horrendous temperatures. Wichita also.

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WestCoastGal
8 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Unfortunately, in catastrophic freezes like this some palms may look okay until the cold is over. Then, over coming days and weeks, they deteriorate before your eyes and collapse. That happened to me in 2010. I lost 30+ spp of palms between Jan. and Sep. Some that I believed had survived, i.e., Areca concinna, Bentinckia nicobarica, Hydriastele beguinii, died months later. When I saw their trunks start to shrivel I knew they were gone. The last was a Pinanga coronata taller than I was. Some years back LA, MS & AL went through a Polar Vortex record front. Palms there kept dying even months later, well into spring and summer.

I was on Palm Talk back then and remember it well. Hit many members from Florida to Louisiana. Really nice gardens that had been a round for a while too. One guy in Florida had recently bought a new house and had just planted some fabulous varieties of mature and younger palms and it was heart breaking seeing the photos of him trying to treat and save a number of them over the coming months. When this front hit the midwest I thought of him and a member in LA wondering how they are doing. 

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jwitt
10 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

There will be a few trunking sabals, most windmills and pure filifera live in Dallas.  The mazari at my parents house in Oklahoma have seen temps close to what we saw in dfw and they survived. I'm curious to see what the t. Campestris in the ground do along with schizophylla.  Here is a very burned jxb. This palm has never leaf burned before.  

The little trachycarpus is already showing that it will be completely defolitated.  

20210216_144632.jpg

20210216_144649.jpg

Here in the ABQ area in 2011(-7 to -15f) every palm defoliated. Except some minors. There was no green.  Strangest looking thing I saw sometime later was a 25' trachy blooming without any leaves. One hybrid I follow did not produce any visible green until the week of July 4.  

 

Of a side note, where is your nursery located. 

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Collectorpalms
9 hours ago, jwitt said:

I figure the natives may take a bit of a hit, maybe not. Overall I bet it strengthens the species with the toughest surviving.  Also curious on the Oklahoma palm growers.and the final outcome.  Tulsa and OKC had some really horrendous temperatures. Wichita also.

This has me really thinking..... but I have visited the Sabals of McCurtain Ok, Sabal Minors across our zone 8 of Texas. None of the specimens appear to me be more than 30 years old. This cold up there is colder than 1989 and on par with the late 1800s and 1949.

I surmise  they have survived ( seedlings or seeds only) because you normally find them in water basins, Red Slough in Ok for example.

The survivors have survived under ice or water, and the time between freezes has allowed them mature to produce seed. But large old specimens are likely killed in these epic freezes. 
There are some old Sabal Minor Louisiana Along New Orleans. The Sabal Brazoria also has old specimens. But neither of these areas has the extreme of inland areas. 
We have Sabal minor local. I should be able to tell in a few months how they faired. Some are in water some the birds dropped and are out of water. 

Edited by Collectorpalms
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climate change virginia

I should get seeds from those robustas that survived in houston next time I go

Edited by climate change virginia
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Collectorpalms

No one knows if Robusta have survived Houston yet. People to our East should probably be looking for any Hybrids survivors that might have survived in areas below 10f. 

Edited by Collectorpalms

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NBTX11
1 hour ago, Collectorpalms said:

No one knows if Robusta have survived Houston yet. People to our East should probably be looking for any Hybrids survivors that might have survived in areas below 10f. 

Some will survive.  It won't wipe out every Robusta in Houston.

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PalmatierMeg

Any unprotected palm that survives this cold blast is a source of seeds for future generations of palms that also may be more cold resistant. Be patient because you may have to wait a few years for those seeds. In 2010 the record cold wiped out most of the Adonidia merrillii in Cape Coral. The few that survived did not flower for two more years.

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ahosey01
8 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Any unprotected palm that survives this cold blast is a source of seeds for future generations of palms that also may be more cold resistant. Be patient because you may have to wait a few years for those seeds. In 2010 the record cold wiped out most of the Adonidia merrillii in Cape Coral. The few that survived did not flower for two more years.

I was thinking the same.  This will be like the Cali freeze that the lone Archontophoenix survived.

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jwitt
5 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

This has me really thinking..... but I have visited the Sabals of McCurtain Ok, Sabal Minors across our zone 8 of Texas. None of the specimens appear to me be more than 30 years old. This cold up there is colder than 1989 and on par with the late 1800s and 1949.

I surmise  they have survived ( seedlings or seeds only) because you normally find them in water basins, Red Slough in Ok for example.

The survivors have survived under ice or water, and the time between freezes has allowed them mature to produce seed. But large old specimens are likely killed in these epic freezes. 
There are some old Sabal Minor Louisiana Along New Orleans. The Sabal Brazoria also has old specimens. But neither of these areas has the extreme of inland areas. 
We have Sabal minor local. I should be able to tell in a few months how they faired. Some are in water some the birds dropped and are out of water. 

I thought those OK minors maybe survived by remaining seed.  I will throw out this, minors were the only palm here(not that we have many) that kept some leaf intact after our 2011 freeze(-7fABQ to even -15f-Los Lunas) that I know of.  Just a data point.  

I truly think the date palms(PHX both C and D) are going to be a good surprise. I will throw out a couple data points.......

1.Google street view proves the date palms had what appears 100% survival rate in El Paso(using street view with an August or September 2011  date stamp).  That would be a 0f event.

 

2.  Some PHX C. survived in Alamogordo NM in 2011. That was a -11f to -14f event. In fact, the ones in the pic are on the east side of the building and exposed to the winds that brought the cold. This was a wind event.from the east.FB_IMG_1475251279809.thumb.jpg.da60b0e372b58630cba1897f70d7a79a.jpg

 

You also mentioned follow up cold. That 2/2011 event in 6b Corrales with back to back -11f nights( 1 wind/1 radiational) was followed in 12/2011 by a -1f event. Theses palms survived unprotected.  There are also filifera on the opposite side(North) in the yard(away from any structures) that also survived(I have never mentioned this fact before). These are about 25 years in place and were planted as 12-15 footers) in a water table less than 5'!  Maybe those OK minors are slower than normal also.

20160830_112624.thumb.jpg.2fe6c791e3c96471fd64cf68e13630f7.jpg

 

I may be totally wrong and the climate difference,  length of freeze, and other variables prove me wrong. I hope I am right. 

Even some palms that are protected in your event may provide some useful data. 

 

What I am most interested in personally is the data that may come from some hybrid data. 

 

I have hope!

Edited by jwitt
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jwitt
41 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Any unprotected palm that survives this cold blast is a source of seeds for future generations of palms that also may be more cold resistant. Be patient because you may have to wait a few years for those seeds. In 2010 the record cold wiped out most of the Adonidia merrillii in Cape Coral. The few that survived did not flower for two more years.

I collected seed(11/2012 or 2013) from this filifera (hybrid?) in Cleburne TX after the 2011 event wiped out any nearby robustas. I have palms in my 7b mile high elevation yard today that just went thru 2 nights of 7b temps with a day between of 23f for a high that are offspring.  I think they will survive. Unprotected.

2013-12-27111705_zpsb0b05f02.thumb.JPG.c52a9b9ad120764435e8222baf49774c.JPG

Edited by jwitt
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PalmatierMeg

Conserving/propagating cold survivors may help save future palms during inevitable sequels. I hope no palm lovers give up after this. It was very hard for me to lose 30+ spp in 2010 but at least most of them were small juveniles, not the nature's majesties they are today, because I was a newbie palm grower. I learned a lot from the experience, i.e., that I had planted species of palm that had no prayer of long term survival here. They had to grow in pots or not at all. I also learned that my Dypsis pembana planted as a 3g in 2009 is a heck of a great palm for my part of FL and shook off 28.5F without a blink. A winner for sure. There will be some winners in 2021 and I hope the word gets out about them.

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Jtee

I had planted some palms in New Braunfels TX back when I lived there in 2015. I have a European fan palm, a pindo and a sabal in the front yard. A robusta, date palm and 3 windmills in the back. I really hope they are ok. 

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palmnut-fry
50 minutes ago, jwitt said:

I collected seed(11/2012 or 2013) from this filifera (hybrid?) in Cleburne TX after the 2011 event wiped out any nearby robustas. I have palms in my 7b mile high elevation yard today that just went thru 2 nights of 7b temps with a day between of 23f for a high that are offspring.  I think they will survive. Unprotected.

2013-12-27111705_zpsb0b05f02.thumb.JPG.c52a9b9ad120764435e8222baf49774c.JPG

My family's from there- I was just down there for a funeral and noticed, on the way down from Big D, many more Washy, Trachy, tall fat Sabals off Hwy 67! Hadn't been down that way in years so it may be curtains for some of them but Sabal minor? Those & Rhapidophyllums will mostly be fine, I have no doubt. 

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NBTX11
1 hour ago, Jtee said:

I had planted some palms in New Braunfels TX back when I lived there in 2015. I have a European fan palm, a pindo and a sabal in the front yard. A robusta, date palm and 3 windmills in the back. I really hope they are ok. 

They are good.  The Robusta and date palm are going to be iffy for a while, but may recover.

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NBTX11

Filifera will come through with flying colors. 19136477-3809-4814-83B6-69FA36710023.thumb.jpeg.7ebb85038c5110820ae2d86d6f5c5cfd.jpeg

39C57315-B738-4D69-BBFF-DCF88C518BB6.jpeg

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TexasColdHardyPalms

They cut all three of those cleburne filifera in front of the Mexican restaurant down years ago.  There are several large filifera around the metroplex as well as thousands of smaller ones that we sold and have planted. 

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jwitt
8 hours ago, palmnut-fry said:

My family's from there- I was just down there for a funeral and noticed, on the way down from Big D, many more Washy, Trachy, tall fat Sabals off Hwy 67! Hadn't been down that way in years so it may be curtains for some of them but Sabal minor? Those & Rhapidophyllums will mostly be fine, I have no doubt. 

I was commenting on the "native" strands of minor NE of Cleburne in SE Oklahoma.  I also think the minors will be fine in the DFW area.

 

The big stocky  sabals you refer to I think are the ones at a RV park(or used to be RV park) on the south side of 67 between Cleburne and Keene.  Those are mexicana and pretty much came thru the 2011 event intact.  Those palms always caught my eye. 

Many new palm plantings in the area although  I have not visited since in a little over a year. 

Sorry for your loss

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amh

Any Sabal uresana results yet?

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jwitt
1 hour ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

They cut all three of those cleburne filifera in front of the Mexican restaurant down years ago.  There are several large filifera around the metroplex as well as thousands of smaller ones that we sold and have planted. 

Those seed parents were removed shortly after my seed gathering.  Damn powerlines!  

Seen an uptick of palm plantings in that area in the last decade.  Thank you!

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Collectorpalms
3 hours ago, amh said:

Any Sabal uresana results yet?

I had almost all Sabals. There is so much ice it’s too dangerous to go out after the ice storm last night, but The only one that has a few feet of trunk that is not turning brown from my windows is Sabal palmetto, but it still looks bad. I have Palmetto, Mexicana, and Uresana not far from each-other. I was shocked to see the Uresana looks worse among those three. I was 4F and not been higher than 34F since Feb 11. Another record cold 2 days still expected here. So Feb 11- 19 is one week.

8D30D917-631B-4CF3-BBD2-D6724AA83708.jpeg

17225933-9DCE-4B86-9E4E-BCD9BEAD194B.jpeg

015C0150-62F0-45AA-8124-FA493192638B.jpeg

Edited by Collectorpalms
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