Jump to content
Ryagra

What are your winter predictions?

Recommended Posts

Ryagra

I’m hoping for a mild winter... seems the first freeze is coming a little early, though. Usually after thanksgiving, not before Halloween. How has autumn been for everyone? 

 

 

F4E75AAB-441B-4E6F-A6D6-3A9AA200B40A.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona

Pretty normal fall by Phoenix standards so far.  Heat has backed off slower but that's to be expected with so little rain this year, compared to last year.  Looks like we start seeing 70s / upper 40s/ low 50s starting next week.. Good because I've got a lot of scrap wood I need to burn. Also good because the air conditioner can be shut off, at least until April.  Might not need to turn it on again, at least here:greenthumb:

Looking forward, looks like a mild/ warmer winter ahead, not looking good rain-wise.  We'll see.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra
4 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Pretty normal fall by Phoenix standards so far.  Heat has backed off slower but that's to be expected with so little rain this year, compared to last year.  Looks like we start seeing 70s / upper 40s/ low 50s starting next week.. Good because I've got a lot of scrap wood I need to burn. Also good because the air conditioner can be shut off, at least until April.  Might not need to turn it on again, at least here:greenthumb:

Looking forward, looks like a mild/ warmer winter ahead, not looking good rain-wise.  We'll see.  

Has it been really dry for you too? We haven’t had rain since April. Every storm has been wind. I’m a little excited to test some things with the cold snap. I have some new species this will be their first winter. 

What a blessing to not run the air conditioner! So much cheaper a power bill :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
Just now, Ryagra said:

Has it been really dry for you too? We haven’t had rain since April. Every storm has been wind. I’m a little excited to test some things with the cold snap. I have some new species this will be their first winter. 

What a blessing to not run the air conditioner! So much cheaper a power bill :D

This summer was the 3rd driest monsoon season in Phoenix officially.. though some spots around the valley did better.  I certainly didn't at the house ( in Chandler) .  Many areas, esp. up in the mountains to the east and south / Rim Country, Nor. AZ.  saw their 3-5th -driest monsoon season this year.  Of all the places where it actually rained, Ajo.. out by Organ Pipe got soaked repeatedly over the summer. That was about it though.  

Oh, lol believe me, shutting that thing off can drop the electricity bill by $100's of dollars. Have a pool?, that's easily a $450.-+$$ bill/ month June-october.  Have gotten it down to $42-52 dollar range Dec.- April at the house.. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra

I know what you mean. It’s been a really dry summer, which is weird cuz SLC got hounded with rain. June is usually the wettest month and we didn’t get anything. 42-62?! Wow, That’s impressive! I think my heat pump runs more than that alone those months. 

unfortunately, no pool. I crave one on the 111 days (our high for the year this year) but don’t have room or funding to construct. Never know though. I am getting a yard soon :yay:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
3 minutes ago, Ryagra said:

I know what you mean. It’s been a really dry summer, which is weird cuz SLC got hounded with rain. June is usually the wettest month and we didn’t get anything. 42-62?! Wow, That’s impressive! I think my heat pump runs more than that alone those months. 

unfortunately, no pool. I crave one on the 111 days (our high for the year this year) but don’t have room or funding to construct. Never know though. I am getting a yard soon :yay:

Put in LED bulbs in all the light fixtures in the house/ outside, sealed gaps in the doors ( as best as possible) which helped alot. Run the heater only a few times when ( if ) it stays cold for a few days.  Still doesn't keep the bill down in Summer though.  Pretty sure the house itself needs new insulation/ new windows that don't leak.

Agree, would be great if we had a pool, but.. the bill for upkeep, etc.. Not worth it, imo.  Maybe sometime in the future, if I have more space and can construct a natural pool ( one that filters the water naturally w/out chemicals).  Def. want to go solar later also, esp. for any irrigation systems / greenhouse fans, etc. 

Nice, you moving into a bigger house / one with bigger yard space? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra
26 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Put in LED bulbs in all the light fixtures in the house/ outside, sealed gaps in the doors ( as best as possible) which helped alot. Run the heater only a few times when ( if ) it stays cold for a few days.  Still doesn't keep the bill down in Summer though.  Pretty sure the house itself needs new insulation/ new windows that don't leak.

Agree, would be great if we had a pool, but.. the bill for upkeep, etc.. Not worth it, imo.  Maybe sometime in the future, if I have more space and can construct a natural pool ( one that filters the water naturally w/out chemicals).  Def. want to go solar later also, esp. for any irrigation systems / greenhouse fans, etc. 

Nice, you moving into a bigger house / one with bigger yard space? 

LED bulbs are great, aren’t they? They don’t really need changed either. 

Move contemplated one of this swim spa pools. Little less upkeep as they are small, just have a current to swim. We’ll see. Natural pool is my dream! One that looks like a pond, complete with sandy shore and palms! 

I am. Life throws curveballs. I’m taking in a parent and need a bigger place to do so. Currently uprooting some smaller trees to pot up before the cold and take with me. 

Not will be weird to have a clean slate plot, but it will be nice that it’s a lot bigger parcel. Step one though will be to get ris of the grass. That’s an inner art waste of water that one could be using on palms. Mid Nov it’s mine :rolleyes:

 

0F9AA177-B114-4054-AEE7-41AB08F0E5C1.jpeg

D211CF04-2B28-4540-915B-0E558E24B9A1.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
10 minutes ago, Ryagra said:

LED bulbs are great, aren’t they? They don’t really need changed either. 

Move contemplated one of this swim spa pools. Little less upkeep as they are small, just have a current to swim. We’ll see. Natural pool is my dream! One that looks like a pond, complete with sandy shore and palms! 

I am. Life throws curveballs. I’m taking in a parent and need a bigger place to do so. Currently uprooting some smaller trees to pot up before the cold and take with me. 

Not will be weird to have a clean slate plot, but it will be nice that it’s a lot bigger parcel. Step one though will be to get ris of the grass. That’s an inner art waste of water that one could be using on palms. Mid Nov it’s mine :rolleyes:

 

0F9AA177-B114-4054-AEE7-41AB08F0E5C1.jpeg

D211CF04-2B28-4540-915B-0E558E24B9A1.jpeg

Congrats, That's a nice looking yard, and view:greenthumb: Can see all sorts of opportunity, esp.  once the grass ...or most of it..  is removed. Like the fire pit too.  Back porch might make a nice spot for some sort of closed in, greenhouse- like area where you could work with smaller more tender palms, etc. 

Have contemplated the natural pool w/ sandy beach area look myself.. for later ofcourse lol  but yes, can visualize  sitting next to/ swiming next to a grove of Majestys and Becarriophoenix alfies, and using the non swimming/ filtering part of the pool as a spot for a bog garden. So many dreamy ideas, so little time, right? :lol:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra
13 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Congrats, That's a nice looking yard, and view:greenthumb: Can see all sorts of opportunity, esp.  once the grass ...or most of it..  is removed. Like the fire pit too.  Back porch might make a nice spot for some sort of closed in, greenhouse- like area where you could work with smaller more tender palms, etc. 

 

Thank you. I’m excited. I finally have room to experiment with some Sabal causiarum. I’ve wanted to for some time. I’m coming from a 50sf yard that backs up to a cliff and has a few hours of sun, so had only small things crammed out front. It will be nice. 

Greenhouse is a great idea, especially silly that close to the south. The backyard is on the south side of the house, so it has potential for a micro. I may also experiment with some cold hardy citrus and banana as well. I would love to harvest things from my labors, besides the views of palms of course.

 

16 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Have contemplated the natural pool w/ sandy beach area look myself.. for later ofcourse lol  but yes, can visualize  sitting next to/ swiming next to a grove of Majestys and Becarriophoenix alfies, and using the non swimming/ filtering part of the pool as a spot for a bog garden. So many dreamy ideas, so little time, right? :lol:

So little time! I agree. That’s been one of my dreams. It would be a great little oasis, albeit I cannot grow Majesty and Becareiophoenix. At least not to any size. In a similar dream world, I would have all these things on the dry side of Maui (cannot give up my beloved filifera) to grow whatever I want  :floor:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
kinzyjr

Hoping for another borderline 10b/11a winter, but figuring it will be more of an average year.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra
2 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Hoping for another borderline 10b/11a winter, but figuring it will be more of an average year.

What Is your average zone again? 9b/10a? I forget. 

Hoping for a Solid 8b myself! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
kinzyjr
2 minutes ago, Ryagra said:

What Is your average zone again? 9b/10a? I forget. 

Hoping for a Solid 8b myself! 

USDA zone 9b officially.  Like most cities, warmer in the urban core and cooler out of town.  Hope it stays mild there for you. 

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra
52 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

USDA zone 9b officially.  Like most cities, warmer in the urban core and cooler out of town.  Hope it stays mild there for you. 

Thanks. Same to you. You have some awesome, tender plants. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
palmsOrl
3 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Hoping for another borderline 10b/11a winter, but figuring it will be more of an average year.

I agree Jeremy, which these days is low 30s annual minimum in the Orlando area.  Mid-30s (borderline 10a/10b) wouldn't surprise me either.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Still hoping for a low temperature under 75 F?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
20 hours ago, Ryagra said:

Thank you. I’m excited. I finally have room to experiment with some Sabal causiarum. I’ve wanted to for some time. I’m coming from a 50sf yard that backs up to a cliff and has a few hours of sun, so had only small things crammed out front. It will be nice. 

Greenhouse is a great idea, especially silly that close to the south. The backyard is on the south side of the house, so it has potential for a micro. I may also experiment with some cold hardy citrus and banana as well. I would love to harvest things from my labors, besides the views of palms of course.

 

So little time! I agree. That’s been one of my dreams. It would be a great little oasis, albeit I cannot grow Majesty and Becareiophoenix. At least not to any size. In a similar dream world, I would have all these things on the dry side of Maui (cannot give up my beloved filifera) to grow whatever I want  :floor:

Maui, or any of the islands would be great, have relatives on most of the islands but likely couldn't take all my plants, and not sure I'd be comfortable living on an island, maybe if closer to the mainland, lol.

Would definitely include at least a couple triple groups of filifera in the dream pool scenario.  

South facing yard is definitely ideal for micro climate potential, esp. if you ended up creating a greenhouse / adding in edibles like Citrus / Bananas, etc.  Agree, fruit is always better when it comes off your own trees, vs. from the store.  Will be neat to see how your future yard takes shape.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
mdsonofthesouth

So far for this winter I'm a little stumped... NOAA claims the winter will be warmer and wetter than average, but all the other reports I'm seeing has us colder AND wetter.  Thus far October has been bellow average. Honestly dont know what to believe at this point. I guess hope for the best but prepare for the worst. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SEVA

So far, this autumn has been pretty warm.  We've had maybe 3 days with highs in the 60s this month and that's the lowest so far.  It's mostly been in the 70s and 80s for highs, and can't forget when it reached 99F earlier this month.  Looks like we'll end the month around 80F.  No frost yet, as usual.  First frost is typically early-mid November, so it's coming soon I'm sure.  Last autumn (2018) was warm as well and we had a mild winter overall (lowest was 15F).  The queen palm didn't fry until early January, and if it doesn't snow by December 9th or 10th it will have been a year since we last received a snowfall.  Maybe we'll get lucky and have a repeat of last winter.  If NOAA is correct, our winter is supposed to be warmer than average with equal chances of precipitation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
mdsonofthesouth
9 minutes ago, SEVA said:

So far, this autumn has been pretty warm.  We've had maybe 3 days with highs in the 60s this month and that's the lowest so far.  It's mostly been in the 70s and 80s for highs, and can't forget when it reached 99F earlier this month.  Looks like we'll end the month around 80F.  No frost yet, as usual.  First frost is typically early-mid November, so it's coming soon I'm sure.  Last autumn (2018) was warm as well and we had a mild winter overall (lowest was 15F).  The queen palm didn't fry until early January, and if it doesn't snow by December 9th or 10th it will have been a year since we last received a snowfall.  Maybe we'll get lucky and have a repeat of last winter.  If NOAA is correct, our winter is supposed to be warmer than average with equal chances of precipitation.

 

I sure hope NOAA is right and the rest are wrong. We are loong overdue for a typical or even warm winter.  We came close to our first frost a week ago, but I'm sure by first week of November frosts will be on the regular. I do remember the hot beginning to October, but its been mostly cooler than average for us but not cold. If the forcast holds November 2nd will be a guaranteed frost for us. 

Edited by mdsonofthesouth
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nj Palms

No frost here yet, but looking like most of the mid atlantic will get it by the end of next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SEVA
4 hours ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

 

I sure hope NOAA is right and the rest are wrong. We are loong overdue for a typical or even warm winter.  We came close to our first frost a week ago, but I'm sure by first week of November frosts will be on the regular. I do remember the hot beginning to October, but its been mostly cooler than average for us but not cold. If the forcast holds November 2nd will be a guaranteed frost for us. 

 

3 hours ago, Nj Palms said:

No frost here yet, but looking like most of the mid atlantic will get it by the end of next week.

 

Parts of the Southeast might get frost as well.  They're forecasting a low in the upper 30s Sunday night for more inland areas of se VA/ ne NC.  Too far out to know for sure though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
palmsOrl

It has been holding steading at above average warm temperatures in Central Florida and we still haven't seen below 65F in the Orlando area and even that was only once or twice.  The lows have been in the low 70s and the days have been mostly 85-90F.  It is certainly easy to believe that the cool season will never arrive, but I know better.  The plants look great.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Palmaceae

How this year is going we might have a 13b winter! :D Actually I just may plant a Cyrtostachys renda on the northern side of my yard! :floor:

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
mdsonofthesouth
4 hours ago, SEVA said:

 

 

Parts of the Southeast might get frost as well.  They're forecasting a low in the upper 30s Sunday night for more inland areas of se VA/ ne NC.  Too far out to know for sure though.

 Sure hope not, but frost after November starts is always better than freak years where we get it mid October... sadly at this time of year anything in the 30s has a good chance of producing frost albeit in lower lying areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SailorBold
On 10/25/2019 at 9:27 AM, Ryagra said:

I’m hoping for a mild winter... seems the first freeze is coming a little early, though. Usually after thanksgiving, not before Halloween. How has autumn been for everyone? 

 

Yes.. pretty early here too...  normally it will freeze in the valley first and we are good for at least a few weeks with near misses.. this storm coming in now is very strong.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SailorBold
10 hours ago, Nj Palms said:

No frost here yet, but looking like most of the mid atlantic will get it by the end of next week.

Its headed that way... its like a mini polar eddy...  we are going to have possible record low high temperatures... and record lows.  I hope this isnt what winter is going to be like..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
2 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Yes.. pretty early here too...  normally it will freeze in the valley first and we are good for at least a few weeks with near misses.. this storm coming in now is very strong.  

Same storm is supposed to drop temps to the mid/ low 70s tomorrow and Halloween, ..possibly 69, in Phoenix on Wednesday ( were usually 2-5f cooler on my side of town compared to downtown/ Sky Harbor).  Forecasting a low of 39-43f around the valley Halloween morning as well.  Hearing places like Flagstaff, Navajo Country ( N.E. section of the state) might stay in the 20s/30s Wed- Thursday. 

Back to the low 80s / upper 40s-low 50s by the weekend.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra
25 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Yes.. pretty early here too...  normally it will freeze in the valley first and we are good for at least a few weeks with near misses.. this storm coming in now is very strong.  

Yes it is! It’s pretty impressive. The seedling come inside at night. They’re too little to burn. ;)

best wishes to you on the freeze. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nj Palms

Looks like most of Kansas will get 3+ inches of snow  and almost all of the state will be below 25 degrees Thursday night.  Stay warm @jfrye01@live.com.

Denver is also getting hit hard with early cold this year.

Edited by Nj Palms

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SailorBold
9 hours ago, Ryagra said:

Yes it is! It’s pretty impressive. The seedling come inside at night. They’re too little to burn. ;)

best wishes to you on the freeze. 

Shouldn't be too bad.. although my bougainvillea will be toast.. the last several years it was blooming into December.  Bummer.. although I was checking on things last night I can still hear my Filifera popping.. so I know its still growing at a pretty good clip.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SailorBold
1 hour ago, Nj Palms said:

Looks like most of Kansas will get 3+ inches of snow  and almost all of the state will be below 25 degrees Thursday night.  Stay warm @jfrye01@live.com.

Denver is also getting hit hard with early cold this year.

Yikey..  looks like Denver wont get above 20f for a high..   Its like January weather!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SailorBold
10 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Same storm is supposed to drop temps to the mid/ low 70s tomorrow and Halloween, ..possibly 69, in Phoenix on Wednesday ( were usually 2-5f cooler on my side of town compared to downtown/ Sky Harbor).  Forecasting a low of 39-43f around the valley Halloween morning as well.  Hearing places like Flagstaff, Navajo Country ( N.E. section of the state) might stay in the 20s/30s Wed- Thursday. 

Back to the low 80s / upper 40s-low 50s by the weekend.  

A brief dip to January weather.. lol    The snowbirds will be arriving early this year..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
19 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

A brief dip to January weather.. lol    The snowbirds will be arriving early this year..

They've already invaded.. Question is how quickly we can send them back, lol. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra
2 hours ago, SailorBold said:

Shouldn't be too bad.. although my bougainvillea will be toast.. the last several years it was blooming into December.  Bummer.. although I was checking on things last night I can still hear my Filifera popping.. so I know its still growing at a pretty good clip.

That’s is a bummer. 

I have a soft spot for filifera. They’re also pretty rough. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ryagra
1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

They've already invaded.. Question is how quickly we can send them back, lol. 

:floor::greenthumb:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DAVEinMB

Polar vortex

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PalmTreeDude

Looking like we are going to get our first frost here Sunday... I'm going to have to bring a LOT of plants in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DAVEinMB

Actually multiple sources are predicting a mild winter here, I just live in pessimism haha.

Accuweather's predictions through January show us not seeing lows below freezing until Christmas day and 9b lows overall. 

Would be nice if it held true. 

20191030_135406.jpg

Screenshot_20191030-135530_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20191030-135631_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Chester B

Terrible fall so far.  Averaging about 20F below normal and already have had two frosts, with more on the way.  The ski resorts even opened up a couple weeks ago.  The last two winters I had frost 4 times per winter for comparison.   Somebody flipped the switch in September and we've skipped both Sept and Oct this year and are experiencing what we expect for Dec and January (our two coldest months).  As far as the predictions of an above average winter at this point I'd bet the farm against their predictions. 

It's almost impossible to believe that California is burning just a few hours south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
jfrye01@live.com
On 10/29/2019 at 8:12 AM, Nj Palms said:

Looks like most of Kansas will get 3+ inches of snow  and almost all of the state will be below 25 degrees Thursday night.  Stay warm @jfrye01@live.com.

Denver is also getting hit hard with early cold this year.

Luckily we missed out on the heavy snow in the Wichita area, we had a dusting at my house that was gone by about 10AM...it was frigid cold by October standards, however...22F at my place this morning... :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×