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gsytch

CURRENT COOLDOWN

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gsytch

The cold snap coming is expected to last thru the weekend, with frost and freezes expected, though not record cold. It appears that all forecasts are targeting inland, rural areas as calm, cold conditions exist - but I am seeing another cold shot next week. Anyone see longer range? My data only goes out 7 days. It appears like Thurs and Sat mornings will feature freezes for inland Tampa Bay/Orlando with watches up for inland South Florida. Then, next week more cold? Watcha thinking? :violin:

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Silas_Sancona

Barring a coupe days of cooler weather, don't see anything too concerning at this point.
384hr models see the possibility of a couple more shots of cold reaching FL thru the end of the month but it appears the trend is for less and less influence here. Keeping an eye on the AO, NAO, and PNA. NAO trends +, AO is also looking to go + and the PNA may drop into negative territory around the 1st. All in all, looks like we will have a stretch of California-like weather here (minus a couple nights of possible frost/ quick freeze further north) over the next week or so. Enjoy it because I have a feeling all that warmth back west spreads east before the end of Feb. Three month forecast released on Accuweather last week suggests a moderating trend next month and warming beyond.. That being said, always take such outlooks with a grain of salt.

-Nathan-

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PalmatierMeg

A trend toward below normal temps but no freeze here over the next week-and-a-half. 7 of 9 lows will be in the 40s with highs in 60s. No arctic blasts as of today. I can deal with that. Only the Areca macrocalyx comes inside tonight.

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SubTropicRay

The 8-14 day outlook looks cold if the Climate Prediction center is to be believed. With a negative AO and NAO and a ridiculous ridge out west, I see no reason to doubt it.

I love it when the graphic shows normal temps in the upper Midwest but Florida is forecasted to be well below normal. Where is the cold coming from if it's normal up there? Did Cuba suddenly freeze over?

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gsytch

Yeah Ray, that's exactly why I started this. I keep seeing cold coming down our way, yet the temps in MN WI MI OH IL are not all that extreme. A high of 22F for Cleveland in January is no big deal. I have also seen the forecast moderate a bit, with a warmer sun/mon perhaps touching 70F. I just despise winter, the dark and cold anyway plants or not. This is not last winter for sure! I am hoping that ridge breaks down and does send the warmer air our way. I would love nothing better than a warm February! :bemused:

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bubba

This well could be the mother of all record breaking cold events in history, including but not limited to 1899 and 1949.Sabals only till the upper Keys with one or two Butia capita till Key West. Possible Bird of Paradise may survive at the Southern most point on Duval as a result of urban heat field still glowing from old naval base.

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sarasota alex

It's 40 outside now. We are not predicted to get below 35-36. That's ok. The palms that die below 40 are covered. However, here is the scary part: The dew point is 35 or 36 now, depending on the source, and I have dew all over the leaves of many of my larger unprotected palms. That means that the leaf temperature is already down to 35 or 36. It only has 4 degrees to go before all that water becomes frost.

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gsytch

Temps leveled out during the night. 38.8F right now. It was 41F at 10pm last night. Skies were clear, winds calm. So, not bad at all. California bakes and we chill. Up and down! :floor:

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SubTropicRay

It bottomed out at 42F this morning just like the airport in West Palm Beach.

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spockvr6

40F down here on Pine Island this AM.

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sarasota alex

In my yard it actually bottomed out twice at 38. First around 3:45AM, then climbed back up to 41 by 4:55AM, and then was down again to 38 by about 5:40AM, and then was back at 41 by around 7:15AM.

I haven't seen any evidence of frost in my yard. But a large yard only couple of hundred feet away was all covered.

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Eric in Orlando

37F here but no frost

Last week we had 33F and 37F, then it was 86F on Saturday, now 37F.

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Dakotafl

It was around 37 here in south brevard, very light frost in the low spots, my golden coconut is undamaged in fact no frost formed on the plants, so far its milder than it was last year.

Edited by Dakotafl

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Alicehunter2000

Whats weird is it stayed above 50 last night up here. Reached 65 today and looks like it will drop near freezing tonight....its got a long ways to go if temps are supposed to drop 30 by morning....I just don't see it happening.

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_Keith

Whats weird is it stayed above 50 last night up here. Reached 65 today and looks like it will drop near freezing tonight....its got a long ways to go if temps are supposed to drop 30 by morning....I just don't see it happening.

Same forecast here. And there is not even the slightest north wind to bring in any cold, either. I am not seeing it either.

And keep an eye out for early to mid next week, too. More freezing temps predicted.

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Moose

My low was 3F above the forecasted low. That I am thankful for. If it had gone 3F below, I would have had some concern. No complaints here!

I've seen forecasted lows miss below the mark too any times in the past.

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sarasota alex

So my predicted low for tonight is higher than what is predicted for Miami! That is some weird airflow we have over the region. Accuweather has my zip 4 degrees higher than Miami (53 vs 49)

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_Keith

So my predicted low for tonight is higher than what is predicted for Miami! That is some weird airflow we have over the region. Accuweather has my zip 4 degrees higher than Miami (53 vs 49)

I was chatting with Ken last night and it was actually warmer in Louisiana than in Homestead. That does not happen very often.

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_Keith

Whats weird is it stayed above 50 last night up here. Reached 65 today and looks like it will drop near freezing tonight....its got a long ways to go if temps are supposed to drop 30 by morning....I just don't see it happening.

David,

It is kind of strange out tonight. Local gauge and weather.com both showing 50, but when you walk out it seems much much colder and very still. I have a feeling that the radiational effect is gonna do a number on us come early morning.

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PalmatierMeg

50.7 last night, about what was predicted. Another cold front goes through today (4th in less than a week) is predicted to drop tonight's low to 42F. Today's high to 61F with 20 mph winds. I got to play a 2+ hour gig outside down near Naples today. Another bout of bronchitis in the offing?

Temps for the next week will be below normal but so far no lows below 40F. I can deal with that and so can most of my palms. The super-sensitives are already moping indoors. Chances of freezing temps should fall significantly in early Feb.

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SubTropicRay

Meg,

Early Feb is a hotbed for freezing temps. We're not out of the woods until the 20th of Feb. That said, with such a cool/cold pattern now, it's bound to be warmer in February.

Ray

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sarasota alex

This is the NWS point forecast for my home's location (has proven for my house to be the most accurate source). Look at the killer frost we are going to have in the morning.

post-3501-0-01419700-1390070635_thumb.pn

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_Keith

Man, that is cold for Sarasota.

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gsytch

Tonight, I doubt frost is in the offing. Winds are to stay up 5-10mph, and dewpoints are low (air is very dry). That said, locations that may go calm could frost. It has not gone above 53F today at my house, and gusts to 15mph have occurred all day. On the plus side - there is BRILLIANT SUN!

:indifferent: :indifferent: :indifferent: :indifferent: :indifferent: :indifferent: :indifferent: :indifferent: :indifferent: :indifferent:

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Moose

A wee bit nippy here. But a temperature range the palms can manage. The forecasted low was dead on.

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Dakotafl

Heavier Frost here than the previous frost, 34F this morning, some plants have a little damage, as far as cosmetic, i live in a cold spot...

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gsytch

And there was frost! Winds died down. None in my yard, but the open field down the street was covered. Curiously, I was warmer, at 38.2F, than Dade county. Maybe coastal Pasco is the new Dade? For some odd reason, this winter, FINGERS CROSSED HERE, I have been no lower than 35F despite a lot of cold weather. Next major frnt due Tues night for more cold days and nights. When is that zonal flow to set up? We could use some warmer weather. :floor:

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spockvr6

Maybe coastal Pasco is the new Dade?

Lol....I don't think that's in the cards for us!

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PalmatierMeg

Lows to be above 50F for next few days, then back down to 42 Wed. night. I put all the super-sensitives back out on the lanai till then.

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SubTropicRay

The little cold snap Wed night into Thurs morning this week looks to have more of a bite than the last few frontal passages.

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_Keith

What the hell. Look at this crap.

Tue
Jan 21 24.gif Sunny / Wind 55°/29° 0 % Wed
Jan 22 32.gif Sunny 55°/37° 0 % Thu
Jan 23 11.gif Few Showers 59°/25° 30 % Fri
Jan 24 30.gif AM Clouds / PM Sun 39°/27° 20 %

Like there isn't enough damage around here already.

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_Keith

What the hell. Look at this crap.

Tue

Jan 21 24.gif Sunny / Wind 55°/29° 0 % Wed

Jan 22 32.gif Sunny 55°/37° 0 % Thu

Jan 23 11.gif Few Showers 59°/25° 30 % Fri

Jan 24 30.gif AM Clouds / PM Sun 39°/27° 20 %

Like there isn't enough damage around here already.

After seeing the forecast above, which I don't mind admitting, devastated me, I check the NOAA Pinpoint and it was several degrees warmer.

And since seeing that now Weather.com has inched a degree warmer, and NOAA a degree colder. I guess the next 24 hours will tell the story as they meet somewhere in the middle.

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Silas_Sancona

Also at odds with the forecast. One of the news stations here was suggesting 3 possible nights lows could drop into the 37-40ish range but every other station, as well as the usual sites I look over have most days, aside from Thursday morning, warmer.. W.U. model runs today keep the +2 to 0c temps up near the FL/GA border so, guess we'll see how it all plays out.

Have noticed more Cardinals and various other song birds showing up in the yard over the past week or so. Also noticed that a large Red Kapok (Bombax malabaricum/cebia) near downtown Bradenton (41 and Manatee Ave) is in full bloom atm. Spring is creeping in.

-Nathan-

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gsytch

While it is going to be cold, I am also not seeing anything brutal. That said, radiational cooling is a tricky thing. How the winds go is how the temps go. My location is calling for anything from 34-37F Thur AM, so that is not too bad. However, it is expected to stay very chilly all week. I heard of a warming trend as the flow goes zonal. Anyone have any idea when? It is something to look forward to! SO FAR, other than some windburn, no damage but I am seeing signs that the continued chill is taking its toll some. :innocent:

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spockvr6

Gsytch-

I think Friday morning could be interesting in our neck of the woods.......

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Mr. Coconut Palm

Here in Corpus Christi, the local stations are forecasting a night or two in the mid - upper 30's for the airport, which should mean about 39F to 42F for my place in Flour Bluff. Also, one statin is predicting a high of only 46F on either Thurs. or Fri., I forget which, and the other station is predicting a high of about 50F - 53F that day. Our normal high is 67F now!

Needless to say, my coconut palms are really suffering this winter. My 10ft. tall Green Malayan planted about 8ft. in front of the front patio and facing East Southeast, I think is going to pull through okay and look normal by May. It is even opening up a new spear right now that looks good. My 4ft. tall Jamaican Tall in the middle of the front yard, also facing East Southeast, I think is going to pull through alright, but looks a little more beat up than my Green Malayan, and is pushing up a new spear with a little brown on it, but it is in an unprotected area of the yard, so that is to be expected. My Golden Malayans, on the other hand look really bad, with the one in the front yard about 20ft. in front of the front patio looking really brown with a little green. The new spear that was opening has browned up but seems to still be emerging very slowly, but the new spear that was just starting to emerge has browned and died down to the point it emerges from the bas of the other leaves. I think the bud is still alive, and it should recover by June or July. It is 6ft. tall to the top of the crown. My other Golden Malayan is in the backyard which faces West Northwest, with almost no protection from the North winds except the neighbor's privacy fence about 40ft. away. It too is pretty brown, but does still have some green on it. No new spears yet, though. It is only about 3.5ft. tall, but should recover by June or July too.

John

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Alicehunter2000

Winds 20 to 30 mph?..........what the #%@& ....at least the forcast low keeps inching up a bit

Abundant sunshine. High 57F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph.

Tuesday Night
Clear skies. Low around 30F. Winds NNW at 20 to 30 mph.
Wednesday
Mainly sunny. High 48F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night
A few clouds from time to time. Low near 40F. Winds light and variable.
Thursday
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 54F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy skies. Low 28F. Winds N at 15 to 25 mph.
Friday
Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High around 45F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph.
Friday Night
Clear skies. Low around 35F. Winds light and variable.

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Xhoniwaters1

Weeeew they had me at 26 this morning and now it's at 31. Big difference!

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_Keith

Inched up some here too, but still next 4 nights forecast at 29,38,30,31 according to NOAA Pinpoint. Weather channel still showing 1-3 degrees colder.

And those winds are solid 20 mph out of the north.

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gsytch

Yeah I'm seein that BUT hopeful we will just get away with it, like we have been doing! anything above 33F and I'm stoked. :drool:

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